The Changing U.S. Immigration Policy on the Nexus of Security and Economy: Extending Visa-Waiver Program and Advocacy-Coalition Framework

By examining the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) in the case of the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP), this article suggests that a dynamic foreign policy change on immigration issues is a function of trade-off between economy and security. In other words, when policy makers ensure that economic gains can offset security loss and vice versa, policy change in immigration issues is rapidly made. Two polarizing advocacy coalitions, security-concerned and economy-concerned, exist within the policy subsystem on the VWP and each coalition has different belief systems, policy actors and stakeholders.     

Advocacy coalitions,beliefs and climate change policy in the United States

The Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) asserts that disagreement over policy core beliefs divides organizations into competing coalitions. We apply Discourse Network Analysis to 1,410 statements in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times and USA Today to investigate what kinds of beliefs contribute to coalition formation in the climate change policy debate in the news media in the United States. We find that the beliefs concerning the reality of anthropogenic climate change, the importance of ecology over economy and desirability of governmental regulation divide organizations into three advocacy coalitions: the economy, ecology and science coalitions. Policy preferences such as cap and trade do not; they find support across coalition lines. Based on these findings, we suggest that ACF theory could be clarified to better account for how beliefs concerning policy instruments contribute to coalition formation. In some policy domains, policy instruments are where opposing coalitions find agreement. In others, they are more divisive.     

Coalitions and corporate choices in Argentina, 1976–1994: The recent private sector support of privatization

After sabotaging almost every privatization since the 1970s, the Argentine private sector suddenly began to support privatizations in 1991. While public choice approaches that stress the cost impact of policy can explain the anti-privatization behavior of the private sector prior to 1991, they are less successful at explaining this recent shift in behavior. This article explains this shift by focusing on political coalitions. By expanding (or reducing) the set of attainable outcomes, political coalitions shape the political choices of firms. Prior to 1991, the rent-seeking private sector led a huge multi-sectoral anti-privatization coalition that repeatedly preempted the Executive from privatizing. In 1991, this coalition disintegrated as a result of a reordering of economic institutions. Devoid of its traditional allies, the private sector chose to acquiesce to privatizations. Thus, political coalitions can be more important in shaping firm behavior than economic considerations such as the cost-impact of public policy or the size of rent markets. This article also explains why, in many countries confronting comparable anti-privatization coalitions, privatizations are likely to emerge with an unexpected mixture of competition-enhancing and competition-restricting policies. Javier Corrales is assistant professor of political science at Amherst College, specializing in comparative and international politics of Latin America. He is currently writing a book on the effects of executive-ruling party relations on the implementation of market-oriented reforms in Latin America. Newspapers and magazines (from Buenos Aires)ámbito Financiero Clarín El Cronista Comercial La Nación Noticias The Review of the River Plate     

Can constituent states influence foreign and security policy? Coalitional dynamics in India

Abstract

The Indian state has undergone significant transformation since the late 1980s, most notably the extensive decentralisation of power, with consequences for the formation and implementation of Indian foreign policy. This article explores the role of India’s constituent states explaining the extent and limitations of their autonomy and influence. It deploys and extends the state transformation approach to incorporate considerations of issue area and coalition type. Under coalitions led by typical national parties, subnational governments are less likely to influence foreign and security policy. Under the same coalition type, they are more likely to behave autonomously on non-traditional security issues such as sharing of water resources with neighbouring countries. They are less likely to behave autonomously on security issues such as the transnational expression of ethnic solidarity. Under coalitions led by atypical national parties or regional parties, subnational governments are likely to exercise a moderate level of autonomy and influence on issue areas such as transnational expression of ethnic solidarity. They are likely to exercise a high level of autonomy and influence on non-traditional security issues such as sharing of water resources. The framework is illustrated through Tamil Nadu’s activism on Sri Lanka, and West Bengal’s position on water-sharing with Bangladesh.     

Choosing Coalition Partners in Belgian Local Government

Government formation is a crucial phase after elections. This article focusses on coalition formation in Belgian local government after the elections in 2006. Coalition theories have mainly been developed at the national level, but they are also applicable to the local level where there is no shortage of coalitions. This level offers the opportunity to not only test rather classic coalition theories such as minimum size theories or the coalitions’ incumbency status. In a federal state like Belgium we can compare the local coalitions with coalitions made at higher levels. The results show that the local political parties prefer to form minimal winning and minimum parties coalitions, but not the smallest coalition that is possible. Coalitions are also more likely to form when they represent the incumbent coalition. Finally, political parties prefer congruent coalitions with the federal and regional government.     

Local Government Policy Evolution in New Zealand: Radical Reform and the Ex Post Emergence of Consensus or Rival Advocacy Coalitions

Between 1984 and 1993 New Zealand reformers followed a top-down strategy designed to minimize the opportunity for resistors to affect the reform process and preclude the ex post emergence of a stable alignment of rival advocacy coalitions. The evolution of the local government policy debate since the implementation of radical reform in 1989 suggests that these strategic goals may be more difficult to achieve than at first thought. The quest to make local government more efficient and democratic by making it more accountable has given way to a 'minimalist-activist' controversy over the comparative institutional advantage of local authorities and the role of trust in their relations with central government that has the potential to contribute to the eclipse of the post-reform consensus and the emergence of a 'advocacy coalition structure'.     

Solving the security–democracy dilemma: the US foreign policy in Tunisia post-9/11

Abstract

Scholarly consensus postulates a sharp contrast exists between liberal values and realist interests in US foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which finds its expression in the ‘security–democracy’ dilemma.? This means the US rhetorical determination to abide by the values of a ‘liberal’ foreign policy is neutralised by the ‘realist’ priority of maintaining US strategic interests, which requires support for friendly authoritarian rulers. Scholarship tends to apply this reasoning indistinctly to the entire region, providing an encompassing framework of analysis for understanding US foreign policy, which is valid across time and space. This study challenges this theoretical assumption and argues that while the US might indeed have a comprehensive regional approach in the MENA, the resulting foreign policy follows country-based trajectories that respond to national specificities and the perceived implications for US strategic interests. Exploring US foreign policy in the MENA after 9/11, the article demonstrates that while the US emphasis on liberalism crumbled when faced with security issues, the US liberal approach to Tunisia unfolded more consistently. Although the US continued formal cooperation with Ben Ali’s regime, it empowered at the same time a coalition of democratic opponents, solving the security–democracy dilemma and positively influencing the Tunisian democratisation.     

‘“Keeping Tabs” on Coalition Partners’: a Theoretically Salient Case Study of Lithuanian Coalitional Governments

Portfolio allocation raises the potential for de facto abdication on a broad range of policy issues among coalition partners. Recent scholarship has addressed how parties in governing coalitions ‘keep tabs’ on each other in order to avoid such abdication. Two mechanisms have been identified: junior ministerial appointments and chairs of parliamentary oversight committees. We argue that the former is the most common method for intra-coalitional oversight in the Lithuanian parliament and that a combination of the two appears to be employed for monitoring the activities of the most important ministries. We conjecture that dependence on junior ministerial oversight is more likely among coalition partners in less institutionalised parliaments.     

Network Powers: strategies of change in the multipolar system

Abstract

The multipolarity of the 21st century is fundamentally different from that of its harbingers because in the past decade change and innovation have been induced through sites of negotiation and by the establishment of intergovernmental foreign policy networks. New powers like Brazil, China and India have gained relative weight thanks to their status as agenda setters, brokers and coalition builders. This paper examines the relevance of different foreign policy networks such as India–Brazil–South Africa ( ibsa ) and Brazil–South Africa–India–China ( basic ) for their strategic approaches and argues that they are crucial vehicles for their ascension. Drawing on the work of Hafner-Burton et al, who raised the question of how states increase their power by enhancing their network positions, a typology of foreign policy networks is proposed: mediation, advocacy and substitution networks play important roles in today’s shifting global order. The paper analyses how the different network types work together and how particular states have adapted better to the new environment than others.     

A Coalition of Coalitions: International Cooperation Against Terrorism

The term “coalition against terror” is commonly used, but is fundamentally misleading. Multiple coalitions against terror exist in different issue areasincluding military, financial, law enforcement, intelligence, and reconstruction. These coalitions are independent of each other, and yet inextricably linked, both enabling and constraining each other's actions. Actions taken by the military coalition can undermine the intelligence coalition, for example, by destroying documents and other information during attacks. Overlapping membership may also cause challenges, for countries who disagree with the approach of one coalition many restrict their cooperation with the others. A successful counterterror strategy must account for the interactions of the various coalitions, understanding how actions taken in one area may cause tradeoffs and unintended consequences in others.     

The Politics of Telecommunications Regulation: State–Industry Alliance Favouring Foreign Investment in India

This paper explores the political economy of three significant policy decisions of the Congress–United Progressive Alliance government between November 2005 and February 2006. These decisions improved the regulatory incentives for the smaller and efficient firms in the Indian GSM industry, which were heavily dependent on foreign investment for their expansion. India's telecommunications sector became more attractive to foreign investors as a result of these regulatory changes. This was a notable departure from the past when government policy had favoured large domestic investors using CDMA technology who were not dependent on foreign capital. A globalisation friendly policy change occurred after a Centre-Left United Progressive Alliance coalition came to power. The paper argues that these decisions, which promoted both competition and foreign investment, occurred due to the increased sensitivity of the Department of Telecommunications towards the needs of the relatively smaller GSM service providers, driven by considerations of efficiency. They were not driven by a crisis of private investment, foreign pressure, or stealth. The shift occurred in normal times when the Department of Telecommunications under a persistent ministerial stewardship took on a regulator, which was less interested in engineering this shift. This globalisation-friendly strategy depended to a large extent on the particular industrial sub-sector that the ruling party or coalition supported for spreading telecommunications in India.     

Portfolio Allocation or Policy Horizons? Determinants of Coalition Formation in Danish Local Government

It is widely assumed that policy considerations are important when parties form government coalitions. But if this is so, and if coalitions are negotiated in multi-dimensional policy spaces with no majority parties, then a rapid turn-over of coalitions should be observed, cf. the chaos theorem. However, we rarely witness this. Here we analyse two of the most prominent theories that address this puzzle: Laver and Shepsle's portfolio allocation model; and Warwick's policy horizon hypothesis. We do not analyse the ‘usual suspects’ (i.e. national government formations in Europe), but present a new empirical testing ground: Danish local governments. We rely on Laver and Shepsle's Winset programme to identify ‘strong parties’ in the portfolio allocation model but develop a new measure of Warwick's policy horizons that better deals with problems of multi-dimensionality. In a conditional logit analysis of survey data from 3000 local councillors, we find support for the policy horizons model, but not for the portfolio allocation model.     

Coalition Politics in India: 2004–2009

Abstract

It is posited here that the coalition imperative of holding the alliances together just to keep in office leads to behavior that is not altogether ethically acceptable. This is not to say that all coalitions are bad by definition; they are not. The issue is: how many partners and what the minimum understanding among them are ideal to run the government? It is suggested that a large and unprincipled coalition on the one hand would debilitate a government, and on the other lead to political corruption and even blackmail. Contrarily, a smaller number of parties with some affinity in ideology and a common purpose would be beneficial for a stable democracy. To glean some insights, the United Progressive Alliance coalitions cobbled together by the Congress Party Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2004, and consequent to the 2009 elections, are studied here.     

INDIVIDUALS AND THE DYNAMICS OF POLICY LEARNING: THE CASE OF THE THIRD BATTLE OF NEWBURY

In recent years, the phenomenon whereby key individuals introduce effective ideas into policy processes has been identified as a vital agent in the redefinition of policy issues. In turn, this raises the basic question of how these individuals themselves undergo processes of learning and change. The article examines three models of policy learning in order to analyse what they may tell us about the dynamics of individual learning: the advocacy coalition framework; the process of learning by means of ‘development’; and issue redefinition through processes of punctuated equilibria. The models are examined in the context of the learning dynamics of three key individuals within the salient anti‐bypass group the ‘Third Battle of Newbury’. The article’s conclusion identifies three apparent paradoxes in individual learning dynamics and attempts to answer these with particular reference to the concepts of frame reflection and regulation by means of norm setting.     

‘Mimicking’ the West? Russia's legitimization discourse from Georgia war to the annexation of Crimea

The 2008 Georgia war represented a turning point in Russian foreign policy. It was for the first time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union when Moscow invaded an independent country and for the first time when two members of the Council of Europe fought against each other. A premiere for Russian post-Soviet foreign policy was registered in 2014 too. The annexation of Crimea represented the first incorporation of foreign territories by Moscow since World War II. These two events generated the West's protest and blatantly contradict Russia's proclaimed foreign policy discourse centered around the respect for states' sovereignty and equality of actors in the international system. Starting from the assertion that the formulation of Russia's foreign policy is determined by the West's international behavior – Moscow looking whether to emulate or to find alternatives to it; the present paper will compare Russia's legitimization arguments for the 2008 war and the 2014 annexation of Crimea trying to assess how Moscow answers Western criticism and whether there is a continuity in Russian official legitimization narratives.     

American culpability: the Bush Administration and the Iranian nuclear impasse

Drawing on the memoirs of Hassan Rowhani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator (2003–2005) and newly elected president, this paper considers the impact of the Bush Administration's Iran policy on the internal politics of the Islamic Republic and the dynamics of its nuclear negotiation strategy. It argues that the administration had a detrimental effect on international nuclear negotiations with Iran and should be considered at least partially responsible for the current nuclear impasse. Identifying three key areas, it focuses on the administration's rejection of constructive engagement with the relatively moderate government of President Mohammad Khatami; the negative influence of the USA during Iran's nuclear negotiations with the EU3; and the administration's refusal to provide the Iranians with confidence-building incentives, or countenance unconditional nuclear talks, despite a policy change in Washington that was ostensibly multilateralist and gave the impression of directly engaging with the Iranians.     

Transport Policy Paradigms at the Local Level: The Norwich Inner Ring Road

It has been claimed that transport policy in the UK, once a quiescent area, has been opened to battle between competing advocacy coalitions and that the late 1980s and early 1990s saw a policy paradigm shift. This article examines one detailed historical case study, the plans to complete an inner road in Norwich and the subsequent collapse of the scheme. The aim is firstly to examine the complex decision making processes and subsequent politics of this scheme and secondly to relate the local issue to the idea of a paradigm shift in national roads policy. The complexity of decision making in a multi-actored arena, where sovereignty is located locally but is circumscribed by central government 'guidelines', suggests that the assertions of those who argue in terms of a paradigm shift in policy may be exaggerated.     

Neo-patrimonial practices and sustainability of authoritarian regimes in Eurasia

The article analyzes authoritarian regimes within the post-Soviet territory in terms of informal practices (clannishness, clientelism and patronage) and their characteristics used by political leaders to form a power coalition. It has been argued that any of these informal practices determine a power coalition of a certain size, which is consequential for regime sustainability. Power coalitions formed on the basis of a clan-like nature is the least effective way to retain power and generally leads to regime destabilization. Clientelism, which allows for forming a power coalition on a wider basis, is a more effective strategy in terms of regime sustainability. Maximum regime sustainability is reached when patronage practices are used, which require more material resources and are only accessible to a limited number of wealthy states.     

Agile small state agency: heuristic plays and flexible national identity markers in Finnish foreign policy

Studies of small state foreign policy tend to draw relatively bleak conclusions when it comes to small state agency. However, I will examine alternative and more positive modalities of small state agency. One such modality is agility, the strategic maneuverability to take advantage of a chancy environment. Besides leading to dangerous rigidities and biases, particular types of foreign policy imageries and heuristics may also facilitate experimental and agile agency. In studying this possibility, Finland is chosen as an illustrative case because historically Finland has faced a particularly constraining geopolitical context and because it has managed to adapt to multiple upheavals and to different geopolitical contexts. The emphasis is on the heuristic dynamics inherent in Finnish foreign policy culture that have allowed it to actively meet the emerging challenges. Instead of taking a detailed historical approach, I seek to understand the role of the relatively flexible and combinable embodied cultural models, i.e. thick images. They allow for agency-related experimentation that may bring added value that allows Finland to exceed the constraints of the brute geopolitical position. After reviewing multiple embodied foreign policy images, I will use them to analyse New Year's speeches by the Finnish Presidents Ahtisaari and Halonen in order to see how the fickle present is made to resonate innovatively with the known, commonplace, and mythical.     

The internal and external constraints on foreign policy in India: exploring culture and ethnic sensitivities

The main argument of this contribution is that the distinction between internal and external is at best blurred and in reality does not make much sense in the case of India’s foreign policy. It may start and end at the border and be determined by negotiations, diplomacy or brute force but there is no conclusive evidence in the literature to decide what determines what. There are important dynamics and interplays across the thin line between the domestic and international spheres, especially in terms of understanding the reciprocal challenges related to how factors of culture and ethnicity relate with the legitimacy of the state. The aim of the paper is to serve four purposes. To unpack and give a critical overview of the debates concerned with the internal and external aspects of India’s foreign policy; to situate the literature dealing more specifically with domestic issues related to culture and ethnicity and outline the main approaches involved; to give an overview of how external factors impact foreign policy conduct and relate to India’s role in defining international norms and regulations; and, finally, to give some theoretical markers, suggestions and concluding remarks.