Perceived environmental uncertainty in Dutch dairy farming: The effect of external farm context on strategic choice

This paper explores the way in which dairy farmers perceive their environment (PE), i.e., the external context of their farm, and the uncertainty (PEU) this poses to them. The environment is defined using the STEP concept (society, technology, economy and politics) and Porter’s five forces model. The relationship between the perception of the external farm environment and the strategy farmers choose for their farm is quantified to gain insight into the effect of the external farm environment on decision-making. Data from a survey of 103 Dutch dairy farmers was analyzed using regression analysis. The results indicate that environmental uncertainty is not related to complexity or dynamism, but to the illiberality (i.e., intolerance, hostility) of the external farm environment. The institutional environment is considered especially illiberal, thus causing high uncertainty. Farmers with high PEU are more likely to choose a diversification strategy, while low perceived uncertainty results in a process-control strategy for the farm. A growth strategy is not affected by perceived environmental uncertainty. The PE and PEU approach is new in agricultural research and shows that the farmer’s view on the external environment is a key issue for decision-making on farms The significant relationship between the perceived uncertainty caused by the external farm environment and farm strategies shows that to get a good understanding of the farm, farming system boundaries should be expanded to incorporate the effect of the external farm environment on decision making. Reduction of uncertainty will enhance decision-making because instead of farming within an uncertain context, risk management practices can be used.     

Conserving natural resources in olive orchards on sloping land: Alternative goal programming approaches towards effective design of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures

Olive farming on sloping land in southern Europe is facing multiple challenges and it is reasonable to believe that farmers will opt for the abandonment of some systems and intensification or change to organic production of other systems. The issues at stake surpass financial farm viability and two EU policy instruments - cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures (AEM) - are available to address environmental objectives. This paper explores how cross-compliance and AEM policy options may lead to shifts in olive production systems and their social and environmental effects in Trás-os-Montes, NE Portugal over 25 years under two sets of conditions of uncertainty: decision-making by land users and market scenarios. Uncertainty in decision-making is addressed by employing five alternative goal programming models. The models include Linear Programming (LP), Weighted Goal Programming (WGP) and MINMAX Goal Programming (MINMAX GP), the GP variants of which are moreover formulated from a societal (S) and farmer (F) perspective. Uncertainty in market prospects is addressed by projecting olive oil and labour prices and trends in farm subsidies, distinguishing four price combinations in market scenarios. The models were validated by their capability to reproduce the initial configuration of olive production systems. Six policy options are evaluated under the complete ranges of uncertainty factors in a total of 6 × 5 × 4 = 120 model runs. Results show overall large effects of farmer decision-making and market scenarios. The cross-compliance and AEM policy instruments have an unequivocal effect on environmental performance and help to maintain work in rural areas. However, farmer income levels are insensitive to the policies, all work is absorbed by family labour and important environmental issues linked to more intensive systems such as pollution are not addressed. In a case study with the WGP (F) model which best reproduced the initial configuration of production systems, cross-compliance was moreover found to burden farmers under adverse market conditions, while AEM contributed to farmer’s objectives under favourable market conditions. A solution would be to focus cross-compliance regulations on intensive systems and offer appropriate AEM for traditional or abandoned orchards. Both policy instruments proved effective, but there is scope for removing substantial overlap between them.     

The impact of water and agriculture policy scenarios on irrigated farming systems in Italy: An analysis based on farm level multi-attribute linear programming models

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of agriculture and water policy scenarios on the sustainability of selected irrigated farming systems in Italy, in the context of the forthcoming implementation of the directive EC 60/2000. Directive EC 60/2000 (Water Framework Directive) is intended to represent the reference norm regulating water use throughout Europe. Five main scenarios were developed reflecting aspects of agricultural policy, markets and technologies: Agenda 2000, world market, global sustainability, provincial agriculture and local community. These were combined with two water price levels, representing stylised scenarios for water policy. The effects of the scenarios on irrigated systems were simulated using multi-attribute linear programming models representing the reactions of the farms to external variables defined by each scenario. The output of the models consists of economic, social and environmental indicators aimed at quantifying the impact of the scenarios on different aspects of sustainability relevant for irrigated farming systems. Five Italian irrigated farming systems were considered: cereal, rice, fruit, vegetables and citrus. The results show the diversity of irrigated systems and the different effects that water pricing policy may produce depending on the agricultural policy, market and technological scenarios. They also highlight a clear trade-off between socio-economic sustainability and environmental (water, nitrogen, pesticide) sustainability. Water pricing will have, in most cases, less impact than agricultural markets and policy scenarios, though it appears to be an effective instrument for water regulation in the least intensive irrigated systems considered. This emphasises the need for a differentiated application of the Water Framework Directive at the local level as well as a more careful balance of water conservation, agricultural policy and rural development objectives.     

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to ‘take stock’ and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of ‘relevance’ and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process; (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socio-economic variability and change.     

A method for exploring sustainable development options at farm scale: a case study for vegetable farms in South Uruguay

The methodology presented in this paper aims at analysing whether there is room for improvement of vegetable farmers’ income in Canelón Grande (Uruguay), while reducing soil erosion and improving physical and biological soil fertility, and to gain insight in the influence of farmers’ resource availability on the opportunities for sustainable development. The (generic) approach we developed to support re-design of farming systems in this region is unique in dealing with complex temporal interactions in crop rotations and spatial heterogeneity on farms in one integrated method, while revealing trade-off between economic and environmental objectives. Rather than an arbitrary sub-set, all feasible crop rotations were generated, using a tool named ROTAT. The crop rotations were combined with a range of production techniques according to pre-defined design criteria to create a wide variety of alternative production activities at the field scale. We used process-based simulation models supplemented with empirical data and expert knowledge to quantify inputs and outputs of production activities. We developed a mixed integer linear programming model (MILP), named Farm Images, to allocate production activities to a farm with land units differing in soil quality, while maximising or minimising socio-economic and environmental objectives, subject to constraints at the farm level. Production activities comprised current practices as well as activities new to the area. We used Farm Images to design farm systems for seven existing farms in Canelón Grande with different resource availability. The farm systems designed by the model had higher family income than current systems for six of the seven farms studied. The estimated average soil erosion per ha decreased by a factor of 2–4 in the farm systems proposed compared to the current systems, while the rate of change of soil organic matter increased from negative in the current systems to +130 to +280 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the proposed farm systems. The degree to which the objectives could be achieved was strongly affected by farm resource endowment, i.e., particularly by the fraction of the area irrigated, soil quality and labour availability per ha. The study suggests that decreasing the area of vegetable crops by introducing long crop rotations with pastures and green manure during the inter-crop periods and integrating beef cattle production into the farm systems would often be a better strategy than the actual farmers’ practice.     

Systematic design and evaluation of crop rotations enhancing soil conservation, soil fertility and farm income: a case study for vegetable farms in South Uruguay

Rapid changes in the social and economic environment in which agriculture is developing, together with the deterioration of the natural resource base threatens sustainability of farm systems in many areas of the world. For vegetable farms in South Uruguay, survival in the long term depends upon the development of production systems able to reduce soil erosion, maintain or improve physical and biological soil fertility, and increase farmer’s income to socially acceptable levels. We propose a model-based explorative land use study to support the re-orientation of vegetable production systems in South Uruguay. In this paper we present a new method to quantitatively integrate agricultural, environmental and socio-economic aspects of agricultural land use based on explicit design objectives. We describe the method followed to design and evaluate a wide variety of land use activities for Canelón Grande (South Uruguay) and we illustrate the usefulness of this approach in an ex-ante evaluation of new farming systems using data from 25 farms in this region. Land use activities resulted from systematic combination of crops and inter-crop activities into crop rotations, different crop management techniques (i.e., mechanisation, irrigation and crop protection) and animal production. We identified and quantified all possible rotations and estimated inputs and outputs at crop rotation scale, explicitly considering interactions among crops. Relevant inputs and outputs (i.e., soil erosion, balance of soil organic matter and nutrients, environmental impact of pesticides, labour and machinery requirements, and economic performance) of each land use activity were quantified using different quantitative methods and following the target-oriented approach. By applying the methodology presented in this paper we were able to design and evaluate 336,128 land use activities suitable for the different soil types in Canelón Grande and for farms with different availability of resources, i.e., land, labour, soil quality, capital and water for irrigation. After theoretical evaluation, a large subset of these land use activities showed promise for reducing soil erosion, maintaining soil organic matter content of the soil and increasing farmer’s income, allowing improvement of current farming systems in the region and providing a widely diverse set of strategic options for farmers in the region to choose from. This method can be used as a stand-alone tool to explore options at the field and farm scale or to generate input for optimisation models to explore options at the farm or regional scale.     

FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies

The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific region. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impacts of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside area will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simulate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a bio-physical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis.     

BANAD: A farm model for ex ante assessment of agro-ecological innovations and its application to banana farms in Guadeloupe

The ex ante assessment of innovative agro-ecological innovations is a key step in the development of more sustainable crop management systems. To this end, models are useful tools because they make it possible to rapidly assess numerous innovations in different contexts. Whereas many farm optimisation models focusing on the farmer’s strategic decision to adopt new crop management systems have been published, little attention has been given to the ex ante modelling of the dynamic operational impacts of innovation adoption at the farm level. BANAD, a mechanistic model for such applications, is proposed. It allows the ex ante assessment of innovative management systems including new agro-ecological techniques, while taking into account different farming contexts and policy and market conditions. It includes three components: (i) a crop management system model, (ii) a crop model (SIMBA) and (iii) a farming system model. Our results applied to the ex ante assessment of six innovative banana management systems for three contrasted farm types in Guadeloupe showed that the impacts of agro-ecological innovations, which include rotations, improved fallow, intercropping, pest-resistant cultivar, and an integrated organic system, can vary considerably according to (i) the farm type in which the innovation is integrated, (ii) the nature of the agro-ecological innovations, and (iii) the criteria considered and the temporal horizon of the assessment. Innovative intercropping systems that were effective at the field level in terms of the yield improvement and decreased pesticide use could be problematic at the farm level because they increased the workload and decreased income. The adoption of rotations or improved fallow seemed to be relevant for smallholders but could induce a critical period of 1.5-2.5 years during which income decreased drastically. Under certain conditions of markets and subsidies, very environmentally friendly innovations that are less productive can however be economically effective.     

农机购置补贴对加强惠农政策实施的思考

农机购置补贴是党中央、国务院支持“三农”和加强惠农政策的主要内容,是加快推进农业机械化,拉动农机工业发展的重大举措洛川县农机化发展迅速,农机装备结构进一步优化,中小型先进适用的农业机械增速迅猛,农机化作业水平大幅度提高,为农村经济发展做出了积极的贡献,使广大农民得到了实惠.     

Impact of resources and technology on farm production in northwestern China

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of resources and technological inputs on farm production in northwestern China, including five provincial districts of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. The gross value of farm production using 1978 constant prices was chosen to be the dependent variable in data analysis. Input variables included the irrigation ratio, farm labour, fertilizer application, and farm machinery. Multivariate statistical analysis (correlation and regression) was used to characterize the relationships between the gross value of farm production and various input variables. The gross value of farm production in the region increased fivefold during the study period, and was strongly associated with resource use and technological inputs. The gross value of farm production was significantly correlated with the irrigation ratio in Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia, where the irrigation ratio was relatively low compared with the national averages. The increase in irrigation ratio in these provincial districts explained 9–19% of the growth in farm output from 1978 to 1998. Technological inputs of chemical fertilizer and farm machinery were significantly associated with farming output in all provincial districts. During the study period, the application of technological inputs increased two to eightfold, and contributed about 45% in the growth of farming output in the region. Farm production was also found to be significantly correlated with labour input. Results of this study indicated that water use efficiency and irrigation management need to be improved for future agricultural development, and further advances in farm mechanization and technology application are key for increasing farm production with limited water resources in this semi-arid area.     

A mathematical programming model of a crop-livestock farm system

A whole-farm mathematical programming model has been built for dryland crop-livestock farms in Western Australia. The multidisciplinary approach used for model building is presented and the resulting model structure is described. It is a mixed integer programming model which represents, in some detail, the biological, technological and financial relationships of the farming system and stresses the interdependencies of enterprises. The model is used to investigate the extent to which positive interactions between different enterprises influence the optimal farm plan. The management issue considered is the division of land between crop and pasture production. It is concluded that, for the farming system considered, interactions do have an influence on profit and the optimal farm plan.     

A cognitive systems framework to inform delivery of analytic support for farmers’ intuitive management under seasonal climatic variability

The idea of the decision support system (DSS) for farmers remains an enigma. Clever technology to bridge the gap between agricultural science and farming practice still seems appropriate. Many more of the conditions for success appear to exist today than ever before. Yet the DSS has yet to significantly colonise farm decision making practice. This paper comes late in a long program of research conducted to see if, and under what conditions, computer simulation of farming scenarios, on which a DSS generally depends, can be valued by farmers.The research approach used an unconventional prototypic information system (IS), comprising local measurements, models, and facilitated discussions that evolved in an action research program. The aim has been to elucidate the means by which successful simulation-based decision support intervention can take place and why it usually does not. This required a significant expansion of the researchers’ concept of the farm as a system to include the farmer’s internal system of practical knowing and learning. This paper reports on a cognitive framework model with transactions at interfaces with both the production system and the analytical IS. Its coarse structure is the classical perception-action cycle influenced by goals and outcome feedback. In the highly uncertain production environment of Australian dryland farming, personal judgement plays a significant mediating role between perception and action, and theory of a continuum between the judgement modes of intuition and analysis adds to framework structure. Further structure comes from the theoretical distinctions between holistic and arbitrary intuition, and between causal and probabilistic analysis. Analytic interventions influence: (a) awareness of current situation conditions and (b) expectations of future conditions and action outcomes, and these serve as primary cognitive resources for evaluation of possible actions in planning and decision making. A theory that matches our research experience in bridging the gap between analytic intervention and intuitive practice posits that virtual situations simulated with analytic models and outputs represented graphically can facilitate vicarious experiential learning. This dovetails with theory concerning the education of intuition.The paper concludes by applying criteria from the field of cognitive engineering to test whether the framework presents a concept of mind that is workable for informing practical model-based research and development aimed at supporting farmers’ judgments and decisions.     

Farmers' participation in the National Accelerated Food Production Project (NAFPP) in Nigeria

A limited dependent-variable model is employed to determine factors influencing farmers in making decisions about whether or not to participate in the National Accelerated Food Production Project Scheme (a voluntary scheme launched in Nigeria to make the country self-sufficient in food production) and the number of farm practices adopted from its technological package for those who do participate.

The empirical results of the study indicate that the probability of a farmer participating in the NAFPP Scheme and the number of farm practices adopted can be influenced by farm size, the farmer's age and his ability to read and write, his membership of a farmers' co-operative society, the frequency of his contact with extension agents and his ability to acquire credit. In addition, it is estimated that age and membership of a co-operative society have a greater effect on the probability that a farmer will participate in the scheme while other factors have a greater effect on the number of farm practices adopted for those who do participate.

As a consequence, land reform and mass literacy policies are recommended to enhance farmers' participation in the NAFPP Scheme. It is also suggested that policies that encourage farmers to form and participate actively in the activities of their local co-operative societies, liberalise credit facilities and increase the number of agricultural extension agents are likely to enhance farmers' active participation in the Scheme, which may result in increasing food production in the country.     

The nucleus and pilot farm research approach: experiences from The Netherlands

High application levels of fertilisers and agro-chemicals in The Netherlands have provoked increasingly stringent environmental policies. The development and evaluation of these policies have led to a shift in agricultural research. Starting in a tradition of factorial research, a systems-oriented approach was adopted. Building on results of earlier systems-oriented experimental research in the 1980s, an approach was developed where research on experimental farms increasingly became linked to a network of commercial farmers, serving as guinea pigs, applying newly developed fertiliser strategies, but also serving as discussion partners, providing new ideas and critically reviewing research results. This set-up, a systems-oriented experimental farm linked to a series of commercial farms, is referred to here as the NUcleus and Pilot Farm Research Approach. It has become the major research approach towards development of sustainable farming in The Netherlands, and is currently applied in projects oriented at dairy and arable farming. It was developed for arable farming during the 1980s and 1990s, whereas in the early 1990s an experimental farm was established for dairy farming. The present paper discusses the general research approach and background, characteristics and results of projects in dairy and arable farming, and compares them with other approaches. The research approach has important advantages, allowing evaluation of technical, economic and environmental performance under realistic conditions, embedded in a common bio-physical and economic environment, while the link with commercial pilot farms stimulates continuous mutual exchange of information. The major disadvantage, precluding statistical analyses due to lack of replicates and the continuous adjustments of the system, can at least partly be overcome through implementation of an intensive monitoring programme, and combining the research with modelling efforts and additional disciplinary research.     

Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain

Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies. The objective of this paper is to present a study using a bio-economic model to assess the impact of the Nitrate Directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region (France) by analyzing, at the farm scale, farm income and three environmental indicators: nitrate leaching, erosion and water consumption. Two scenarios, the 2003 CAP reform (baseline scenario) and the Nitrate Directive (policy scenario), with a 2013 time horizon, were developed and compared for three representative arable farm types in the Midi-Pyrenees region. Different types of data characterizing the biophysical context in the region (soil, climate), the current cropping systems (rotation, crop management) and farm resources (irrigated land, labor) were collected to calibrate and run the models. Results showed that the implementation of the Nitrate Directive may not affect farm income. However, significant modifications to cropping systems and crop allocation to soil types were simulated. Contrary to expectations, nitrogen leaching at the farm scale did not change. Overall water consumption increased and soil erosion decreased due mainly to a modification in cropping patterns and management by soil type. This study provides an example of unanticipated effects of policy and trade-offs between environmental issues.     

Integrated participatory modelling of actual farms to support policy making on sustainable intensification

On the tropical island of La Réunion, population growth, increasing demand in food products, agricultural densification, and the resulting pressure on the environment are representative of what is expected to happen in the majority of the world’s regions in the next decades. Crop-livestock integration is a possible solution for the sustainable intensification of farming systems.GAMEDE, a whole-farm model, was designed and used with six representative dairy farmers on the island to ex-ante assess differences in farm sustainability of various degrees of crop-livestock integration and to support discussions with farmers about these options. The model details the dynamics of the main biophysical and decisional processes affecting labour, gross margin, and energy and nutrient flows within the farm.We propose a method based on typology, modelling and participatory techniques to support policy making. All its methodological stages integrate both quantitative and qualitative data. The large majority of farm model implementation cases reported in the literature refers to constructed synthetic farms. However, in our case, actual farm simulation was particularly useful for capturing farmers’ expert knowledge and providing insights into how agro-ecosystems are really managed. This approach enabled taking farm diversity into account in defining relevant interventions. The reliability of extrapolations and recommendations for policy formulation based on farm-level simulation were verified by a rigorous evaluation of the representativeness of the farm sample, crossing expert data with data stemming from a multi-variate analysis. Our research indicates that actual farms can also be typical.     

Nutrient flows and balances at the field and farm scale: Exploring effects of land-use strategies and access to resources

Nutrient flux and balance studies are valuable tools to assess the sustainability of agro-ecosystems and potential consequences for agricultural productivity. This paper presents results from a study at the field/farm scale representing mixed farming systems typical for the East African Highlands. We selected catchments in the Dega (cool highlands and Woina Dega (warm-to-cool mid-highlands) of the Central Highlands of Ethiopia, to get more insight on how individual land use strategies and access to resources affect the magnitude of nutrient flows and resulting balances and to explore some of reasons of the variability within and between farming systems at different altitudes. Our results show that environmental condition, farming system (e.g. choice of crop), access to resources (e.g. land, livestock and fertilizer) and smallholders’ source of off farm income influence the magnitude of nutrient fluxes and the degree to which nutrient fluxes may be imbalanced.     

Small farmers—credit constraints: A paradigm

Small farmers and agricultural labourers have very limited investment opportunities in rain-fed regions. The institutional efforts to reach them through viable projects and other policy measures have not been very successful. This note describes the internal resource management of the small farmer through a paradigm that raises issues vital for more purposeful project design. Credit is one major input that largely determines the decision-making options of a small farmer vis-à-vis his entire farm family and social interaction process. The paradigm suggests that projects for bettering his lot should not only be concerned with the manipulation of the internal variables of a projects package, but would have to be so tuned as to fit in with the internal dynamics of a rational small farmer.     

Increasing animal productivity on small mixed farms in South Asia: a systems perspective

Smallholder crop–animal systems predominate in south Asia, and most of the projected future demands for ruminant meat and milk are expected to be met from the improved productivity of livestock in these mixed farming systems. Despite their importance in the sub-region, there is a paucity of information on research that incorporates animals interactively with cropping. Livestock research has tended to highlight component technologies, often treating diverse and complex mixed farming operations as a single system. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to social, economic or policy issues. Thus, many of the technological interventions have either failed to become adopted at farm level or their uptake has proved unsustainable. This paper reviews aspects of animal production in South Asia; the trends and forecasts for animal populations and products, constraints to productivity, research opportunities and some key examples of technologies that have failed to achieve their full potential on farm. A systems analysis of small-scale crop–livestock operations is advocated, as a precursor for targeting appropriate interventions at farm level to increase animal productivity and protect the natural resources base.