The effect of agricultural price-support policies on interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea: 1976-1980

The impact of rice price-support policies, designed to increase farmers' income and reduce rural-urban migration in the Republic of Korea, is examined for the period 1976-1980 using a polytomous logistic model. "Our findings revealed that the elasticity of migration with respect to rice yield per origin farm household is positive and is significantly different from zero. The elasticities of migration with respect to rate of urbanization, particularly urban concentration-agglomeration, and population size of the destination are also positive and are significantly different from zero....Our findings questioned the wisdom of employing rice price price-support programs as a viable policy for reducing interregional and rural-to-urban migration in Korea."     

巴西城市化模式的分析及启示

巴西是世界上经济较为发达的发展中国家,城市化水平相当高.但是,它的城市化先于工业化,属于过度城市化模式.20世纪30年代之前,巴西主要依靠外来移民推动其城市化进程,属于无工业化的城市化;之后,工业化起步,进一步加速了城市化的发展.但是,由于历史、政策等多方面原因,巴西在城市化过程中出现了区域不平衡和过度城市化、贫民窟等严重的城市问题.研究巴西城市化发展的经验和教训,对我国城市化进程中实现城乡协调和可持续发展具有一定的启示作用.     

A simultaneous-equations analysis of urban development: migration and industrial growth in Israel's new towns

A simultaneous-equations econometric model is used to analyze the recent development of new towns in Israel. The focus is on the relationships among migration, industrial investment, employment, and other structural and policy variables affecting urban development. "Our results affirm the importance of economic opportunity, agglomeration effects, population socioeconomic and ethnic composition, and access in determining migration flows. At the same time, unemployment and investment indices are affected by local labor-market conditions, government incentives, and regional development effects as well as by population composition and migration flows. Policy implications of the analysis are considered."     

从全国“两会”看2021年经济政策

全球新冠疫情未艾,贸易保护主义和强权政治不断抬头,面对百年未有之大变局,2021年中国经济面临的困难和风险不小。作为“十四五”时期的第一个“两会”,2021年全国“两会”以一些新理念和新观点明确了2021年经济政策的走向和趋势。那么2021年我国经济会如何发展?2021年的经济政策包括哪些方面?又有哪些新的特点?对经济发展会产生怎样的影响?本期文章将进行多维解读,以飨读者。     

Dynamic control of rural–urban migration

This study investigates the optimal urbanization control of an underdeveloped economy by specifying a simple dynamic rural–urban model in which the urban sector bears both an intertemporal positive externality and a simultaneous negative externality. The dynamic optimization problem is solved for the political intervention of the central government in an intersectoral population distribution with taxes and subsidies. Our analysis provides the following results: (i) a big-push policy that leads an economy to a higher-income steady state with urbanization is not necessarily desirable if the government cannot borrow money at a sufficiently low interest rate; (ii) in order to sustain an appropriate urbanization speed, urbanization control policy should have a switch: the urban sector should be subsidized in order to accelerate rural–urban migration in early stages of development, and taxed to decelerate and eventually cease the migration in later stages.     

Dynamic control of rural–urban migration

This study investigates the optimal urbanization control of an underdeveloped economy by specifying a simple dynamic rural–urban model in which the urban sector bears both an intertemporal positive externality and a simultaneous negative externality. The dynamic optimization problem is solved for the political intervention of the central government in an intersectoral population distribution with taxes and subsidies. Our analysis provides the following results: (i) a big-push policy that leads an economy to a higher-income steady state with urbanization is not necessarily desirable if the government cannot borrow money at a sufficiently low interest rate; (ii) in order to sustain an appropriate urbanization speed, urbanization control policy should have a switch: the urban sector should be subsidized in order to accelerate rural–urban migration in early stages of development, and taxed to decelerate and eventually cease the migration in later stages.     

城乡收入差距对城镇失业的影响及对策分析

当前我国城乡收入差距日益扩大引发了庞大的乡-城人口流动,在一定程度上加剧了城镇的高失业状况.正确认识这种状况,需要运用适当的理论,予以科学的分析.利用托达罗模型对此现象进行了理论分析,并利用格兰杰因果关系检验方法对城乡收入差距加剧我国城镇失业问题进行了实证检验,最后提出了短期内利用新农村建设缓解我国城镇失业压力的政策措施及建议.     

The effect of population growth,the pattern of demand and of technology on the process of urbanization

A nonlinear, three-sector, two-region wage and price endogenous dynamic general equilibrium model is used to study the effects of population growth, the pattern of demand, and technological change on urbanization in the context of a low-income developing country starting at a low level of urbanization. The model represents a closed economy and is therefore more suited to a large country. It is validated on Indian data and traces its development path well from 1950 to the present. The sectors modeled are agriculture, industry, and services with the latter two being located exclusively in urban areas. The three sectors are linked with an input-output matrix which subsumes transportation costs incurred between urban and rural areas. The model is designed to investigate long-term changes, e.g., over a 30-year period, and factor mobility is therefore assumed to be “almost perfect.” The model demonstrates that rapid agricultural productivity growth, high rates of investment, and Engel demand effects combine to produce a continuing increase of urbanization as development occurs in an economy. The rate of urbanization is not necessarily dependent on high overall population growth: indeed, under certain conditions, a lowering of overall population growth might speed up the rate of urbanization. The pattern of demand and changes in the pattern can affect the rate of urbanization significantly: in particular, Engel-type demand changes serve to make the process of urbanization logistic. Technological bias effects are not very strong but effective appropriate technology policies might speed up urbanization.     

河北省南部地区大城市化构建价值与意义探索

河北省南部城市化是生产力发展与社会经济发展的必然趋势。科学分析河北省南部城市化发展的基础对发现存在的问题和相关政策的实施很有必要。本文主要以邢台、邯郸为例,对河北省南部城市化进行分析,研究得出的结论为:大城市化对促进资源要素和经济活动的集聚、提升经济增长质量、推动新型工业化等具有重要的促进作用。     

城郊型农业物流发展的思考——福州城郊农业物流为视角

随着城市化进程的加快和国民经济的发展,城乡经济联系也越来越紧密,城乡一体化趋势日益明显。为满足城市发展需要和适应城郊型农业发展的要求,城市郊区农产品物流发生着新的变化。城市与郊区通过物流,密切了两者之间的经济联系,以城带乡城乡结合,成为城郊型农业物流发展的必然选择。文中以福州城郊型农业物流为视角,论述了福州郊区为代表的城郊农业物流模式的发展概况。     

面对全球化过程中台北市的都市现实

在 2 1世纪开始的此时此刻 ,全世界的城市和社会都共同正在经历一个在我们自身结构内的巨大历史性转化。在这样的转化核心环绕着资讯技术所组织起来的技术革命。立基于新技术的基础设施 ,经济与传播的全球化过程已改变了我们生产、消费、管理、告知和思考的方式。所有层级的策略性支配的活动 ,都是在全球决策和交换网络中被组织 ,从金融市场到视听讯息 ,世界是不对称地相互依赖着。而这样的不对称互赖关系经由新资讯与传播技术 ,全球、即时地联系起来 ,这就是我们要面对的结构性转化所透露的新世纪 ,资讯时代、全球经济、与网络社会。文章针对作为全球城市 (globalcity)的台北市 ,在面临全球经济中的再结构与都市再结构的巨大变局时 ,就它的都市政策研拟首先要面对的现实课题 ,提出分析 ,换句话说 ,这也是一个正在横渡全球化恶水中地方政府 ,摸索它的新角色转化时必须先面对的地方真实情境。     

经济全球化与中东大都市的崛起

二战后随着经济全球化与城市化进程的深入,中东大都市得到了迅猛发展并成为世界城市等级体系中的重要节点。目前中东大都市已经初步具备了"世界城市"的特质,呈现出地区经济控制力增强,媒介信息中心、文化中心地位提升,以及国际国内劳动力聚集等特征。然而在经济全球化视域下,新国际劳动分工、全球性资本与技术的自由流动以及地方政府积极应对经济全球化的相关政策等,给中东大都市发展带来了巨大提升空间的同时,信息化程度低、城市经济应对经济全球化能力脆弱以及城市治理缺乏等也成为了约束当前中东大都市崛起的主要因素。     

引导京津冀地区人口合理布局的思路与对策研究

近年来,北京城市人口规模持续高位攀升,造成了交通拥堵、就业紧张、住房困难、水资源紧缺、环境污染等城市问题。从城市发展战略出发,采取引导和疏散人口的有效措施和政策,是首都实现可持续发展的重要环节。本文基于"京津冀一体化"国家战略,探索通过产业发展和功能提升增强首都周边区域对人口的吸引力,引导京津冀区域人口合理分布和有序流动,从而促进京津冀地区人口与经济社会、资源环境全面协调可持续发展。     

城市经济带的理论问题

"城市经济带"是本文基于城市经济学、区域经济学、空间经济学与产业经济学理论的交叉融合,针对国内外城市经济发展中的现实问题提出来的概念.作为城市经济未来发展的一种趋势,"城市经济带"对于促进中国转轨经济中区域经济快速健康发展的实践具有重要的指导意义.鉴于当前学术界尚未对"城市经济带"给出明确的阐释,本文对"城市经济带"的相关理论问题进行了初步探讨,如理论溯源、内涵阐释等方面,以期达成对"城市经济带"相关实践领域的理论自觉.     

户籍政策与人口城市化

分析了户籍政策的形成背景及特殊意义,指出尽管户籍政策对城市化发展存在一定的阻碍作用,但因其涉及方方面面的问题,不可能在短期内被取消.据此提出了现阶段我国城市化发展的新思路:不再过分强调人口向城市聚集,代之先进要素向城市聚集;在农村和欠发达地区则以职业转换取代空间转换,或采取人口迁移的反梯度政策,走先发展经济,后进行人口空间聚集的农村城市化之路.     

关于湖南省县域经济发展的思考

改革开放以来,湖南省县域经济取得了长足发展,在国民经济中占有举足轻重的地位。但在我国由计划经济向社会主义市场经济转轨、由城乡分治的二元结构向城乡一体化的现代化结构转变的过程中,县域经济发展所面临的体制约束越来越成为阻碍县域经济健康发展的主要因素。为解决这一问题,我们必须全面推进民营企业发展,加快农业产业化、经济信息化、城乡一体化和环境优质化进程。从而不断开创县域经济建设事业的新局面。     

INTERNAL MIGRATION IN TURKEY, 1965–1985: TEST OF CONFLICTING FINDINGS IN THE LITERATURE

The purpose of this paper is to bring new insights to some of the conflicting findings in the migration literature about developing countries by using detailed analyses of Turkish migration data. The possible reasons behind inconsistencies in the findings are explained in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics of the data, and by national macro factors (mainly the level of urbanization and the characteristics of the urban systems). Tested were rural out-migration and push factors; changes in the size of rural-to-urban and urban-to-rural return migration; the effect of distance; and the share and effect of rural-to-urban migration in the urban growth and in the unbalanced population distribution in developing countries.     

城市化进程中的城市文化保护与发展——美国与欧洲城市景观文化取向比较

在城市化进程中,城市建筑衰败在所难免,衰败使中心区古老的建筑群逐渐沦为贫民窟,对城市文化及经济发展产生巨大的负面影响.面对城市中心年代久远的建筑群的衰败,美国与欧洲采取了不同的政策,同时也表现出城市景观文化的取向.本文通过比较分析美国与欧洲城市老城区景观发展政策、城市文化模式及其对城市经济的影响,希望为今日我国快速城市...     

经济制度变迁、产业结构演变与中国经济高质量发展

本文基于1978~2017年中国大陆31个省份的面板数据,考察经济制度变迁、产业结构演变对经济高质量发展的影响。研究发现,产业结构演变不仅对中国经济高质量发展产生直接影响,还通过对生产要素的资源配置功能发挥作用,对经济发展产生间接影响;经济制度主要通过纠正资源错配和促进产业结构优化,间接促进中国经济高质量发展。为此,应继续推进经济制度改革,释放"制度红利"以弥补"结构红利"的消解;各地区应视区情实施不同产业经济政策,东部重点发展高端制造业和现代化服务业,中西部应加快形成二三产业协同发展的双引擎,东北地区则要尽快找准契合地区经济实际的产业结构调整方向。     

新城转型中的土地利用与能耗变化——UrbanSim应用探索

以北京市的亦庄新城为例,采用基于微观模拟的大尺度城市模型UrbanSim作为分析工具,考察不同产业结构变化情景下,北京市经济技术开发区向亦庄新城转型过程中的土地利用和能源消耗变化的空间特征。模拟结果揭示了在不受政府调控干预的条件下,现有住房供应与需求存在结构性不匹配,导致模拟环境下,亦庄新城家庭的数量未达到规划目标,而且落地率(实际数量与规划数量之比)持续下降;同时,产业结构变动本身对新城的能耗水平会带来较大影响,服务经济转型有助于新城能耗下降。