A remote sensing/GIS-based physical template to understand the biogeochemistry of the Ji-Paraná river basin (Western Amazônia)

Amazônia is one of the most important ecosystems of the planet, containing the largest extent of contiguous tropical rain forest on earth, over 5 million square kilometers. While most of the region remains forested, rapid development has led, over the past two decades, to the destruction of over 589,000 km² of forests in Brazil alone. Forest clearing can alter the transport of sediments, organic matter and associated nutrients to the rivers. In this article, we present the results of an integrated analysis of the landscape characteristics, including soil properties, river network, topography, and land use/cover of a tropical meso-scale river. This physical template was developed as a comprehensive tool, based on Remote Sensing and GIS, to support the understanding of the biogeochemistry of surface waters of the Ji-Paraná river basin, State of Rondônia, Western Amazônia. Our primary objective was to demonstrate how this tool can help the understanding of complex environmental questions, such as the effects of land-use changes in the biogeochemistry of riverine systems. River sites and basin characteristics were calculated using the data sets compiled as layers in Arc-Info GIS. A land-use/cover map for 1999 was produced from a digital classification of Landsat 7-ETM⁺ images. To test the effects of the landscape characteristics on river water chemistry, we performed a multiple linear regression analysis. Average slope, river network density, effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC), and proportion of pasture were treated as independent variables. River water electrical conductivity (EC) and Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, Cl⁻ and PO₄³⁻ concentrations were the dependent variables. Spatially, higher values of all ions were associated with areas dominated by pasture, with the highest concentrations found in the central part of the basin, where pasture areas are at a maximum. As the river enters the lower reaches, forests dominate the landscape, and the concentrations drop. The percentage of the basin area covered by pasture was consistently the best predictor of EC (r²=0.872), PO₄³⁻ (r²=0.794), Na⁺ (r²=0.754), Cl⁻ (r²=0.692) and K⁺ (r²=0.626). For Ca²⁺, both ECEC (r²=0.538) and pasture (r²=0.502) explained most of the observed variability. The same pattern was found for Mg²⁺ (r²=0.498 and 0.502, respectively).     

Wavelet analysis of MODIS time series to detect expansion and intensification of row-crop agriculture in Brazil

Since 2000, the southwestern Brazilian Amazon has undergone a rapid transformation from natural vegetation and pastures to row-crop agricultural with the potential to affect regional biogeochemistry. The goals of this research are to assess wavelet algorithms applied to MODIS time series to determine expansion of row-crops and intensification of the number of crops grown. MODIS provides data from February 2000 to present, a period of agricultural expansion and intensification in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. We have selected a study area near Comodoro, Mato Grosso because of the rapid growth of row-crop agriculture and availability of ground truth data of agricultural land-use history. We used a 90% power wavelet transform to create a wavelet-smoothed time series for five years of MODIS EVI data. From this wavelet-smoothed time series we determine characteristic phenology of single and double crops. We estimate that over 3200 km² were converted from native vegetation and pasture to row-crop agriculture from 2000 to 2005 in our study area encompassing 40,000 km². We observe an increase of 2000 km² of agricultural intensification, where areas of single crops were converted to double crops during the study period.     

Characterization of pasture biophysical properties and the impact of grazing intensity using remotely sensed data

Remote sensing has the potential of improving our ability to map and monitor pasture degradation. Pasture degradation is one of the most important problems in the Amazon, yet the manner in which grazing intensity, edaphic conditions and land‐use age impact pasture biophysical properties, and our ability to monitor them using remote sensing is poorly known. We evaluate the connection between field grass biophysical measures and remote sensing, and investigate the impact of grazing intensity on pasture biophysical measures in Rondônia, in the Brazilian Amazon. Above ground biomass, canopy water content and height were measured in different pasture sites during the dry season. Using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data, four spectral vegetation indices and fractions derived from spectral mixture analysis, i.e., Non‐Photosynthetic Vegetation (NPV), Green Vegetation (GV), Soil, Shade, and NPV + Soil, were calculated and compared to field grass measures. For grazed pastures under dry conditions, the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII5 and NDII7), had higher correlations with the biophysical measures than the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Soil‐Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI). NPV had the highest correlations with all field measures, suggesting this fraction is a good indicator of pasture characteristics in Rondônia. Pasture height was correlated to the Shade fraction. A conceptual model was built for pasture biophysical change using three fractions, i.e., NPV, Shade and GV to characterize possible pasture degradation processes in Rondônia. Based upon field measures, grazing intensity had the most significant impact on pasture biophysical properties compared to soil order and land‐use age. The impact of grazing on pastures in the dry season could be potentially measured by using remotely sensed measures such as NPV.     

Studies of land-cover, land-use, and biophysical properties of vegetation in the Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere experiment in Amazônia

We summarize early research on land-cover, land-use, and biophysical properties of vegetation from the Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere (LBA) experiment in Amazônia. LBA is an international research program developed to evaluate regional function and to determine how land-use and climate modify biological, chemical and physical processes there. Remote sensing has played a fundamental role in LBA in research planning, land-cover mapping and in long-term monitoring of changes in land-cover and land-use at multiple scales. This special issue includes 12 papers that cover a range in spatial scales from regional mapping to local scales that cover only a portion of a Landsat scene. Several themes dominate, including land-cover mapping with an emphasis on wetlands and second-growth forest, evaluation of pasture sustainability and forest degradation and the impact of land-cover change on stream chemistry. New techniques introduced include automated Monte Carlo unmixing (AutoMCU) and several new approaches for mapping land-cover. A diversity of sensors are utilized, including ETM+, IKONOS, SPOT-4, Airborne P-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and L-band SAR. Census data are fused with an existing land-cover map to generate spatially explicit estimates of land-use from historical data. Several papers include important, new field measures of species composition, forest structure and biomass in mature forest and secondary succession.     

Spatial and temporal patterns of China's cropland during 1990-2000: An analysis based on Landsat TM data

There are large discrepancies among estimates of the cropland area in China due to the lack of reliable data. In this study, we used Landsat TM/ETM data at a spatial resolution of 30 m to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of cropland across China for the time period of 1990-2000. Our estimate has indicated that total cropland area in China in 2000 was 141.1 million hectares (ha), including 35.6 million ha paddy land and 105.5 million ha dry farming land. The distribution of cropland is uneven across the regions of China. The North-East region of China shows more cropland area per capita than the South-East and North regions of China. During 1990-2000, cropland increased by 2.79 million ha, including 0.25 million ha of paddy land and 2.53 million ha of dry farming land. The North-East and North-West regions of China gained cropland area, while the North and South-East regions showed a loss of cropland area. Urbanization accounted for more than half of the transformation from cropland to other land uses, and the increase in cropland was primarily due to reclamation of grassland and deforestation. Most of the lost cropland had good quality with high productivity, but most gained cropland was poor quality land with less suitability for crop production. The globalization as well as changing environment in China is affecting land-use change. Coordinating the conflict between environmental conservation and land demands for food will continue to be a primary challenge for China in the future.     

A hybrid approach to mapping land-use modification and land-cover transition from MODIS time-series data: A case study from the Bolivian seasonal tropics

This study uses a combination of satellite imagery and GIS data, a vegetation map, interview data, and on-site field studies to map detailed natural vegetation to land-use conversion pathways (~ 22,000 possible combinations) in the seasonal tropics of Santa Cruz Department in southeastern Bolivia from 1994 to 2008. We mapped a suite of land-use classes based on the seasonal phenology of double- and single season cropping regimes; pasture; and bare soil cropland (fallow). Analyses focus specifically on the Corredor Bioceánico, which bisects some of the most sensitive and poorly understood ecosystems in the world and indirectly creating one of the most important agricultural region-deforestation hotspots in South America at the present time. Training data to predict class membership were based on MODIS NDVI annual mean, maximum, minimum, and amplitude derived from field observations, semi-structured interviews, and aerial videography. Results show that over 8,000 km² of forest was lost during the 14-year study period. In the first years of cultivation, pasture is the dominant land use, but quickly gives way to cropland. The main findings according to forest type is that transitional forest types on deep and poorly drained soils of alluvial plains have lost the most in terms of percentage area cleared. The resulting transition pathways can potentially provide decision-makers with more detailed insight as to the proximate causes or driving forces of land change in addition to the most threatened forests remaining in the Tierras Bajas and those most likely to be cleared in the Brazilian Shield and Pantanal.     

Biophysical characteristics and fire occurrence of cultivated pastures in the Brazilian savanna observed by moderate resolution satellite data

Cultivated pastures are the dominant land-use unit in Brazil, with the cattle raising sector representing ～50% of the total Brazilian emissions of greenhouse gases. About 44% of the Brazilian cattle herd is located in the 204 million ha Cerrado, the Brazilian savanna biome and one of the world's hotspots for conservation, where pasture is still the major driving force behind the ongoing land clearance. In the face of the environmental challenges posed by the Cerrado cultivated pastures, 50% of which are estimated to be already severely degraded and where most of the pasture-related fires in Brazil occur, in this study we report the findings on the use of key Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land (MODLAND) products for retrieving biophysical patterns and trends of cultivated pastures over the entire Brazilian savanna biome. The areas of Cerrado covered by cultivated pastures were analysed by the following 2008 MODIS products: MOD13Q1 enhanced vegetation index, MOD11A2 land-surface temperature, MOD15A2 leaf area index, and MCD45A1 fire-affected areas. Specifically, 23 MOD13Q1 composites for the whole year of 2008 were used as a net primary productivity proxy. Our results indicate the ability of moderate resolution orbital imagery to consistently depict the main characteristics and regional variation in the biophysical properties of the Cerrado pastures, which clearly depend on management practices, usage, and environmental conditions. In particular, these results corroborate the feasibility of an operational MODIS-based monitoring system providing early fire warnings and overall quality assessments in support of a more efficient and sustainable herd occupation and more appropriate land-use destination.     

Harmonic amplitude-terms mask to highlight agriculture in the savanna domain below the Brazilian Amazonian frontier

In the present decade, agricultural monitoring has increased in importance world-wide mainly due to sensitive matters, such as the current food crises, bio-fuels boom and the land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes from savanna (Brazilian Cerrados) and forest areas to agricultural expansion. In this complex context there is a requirement for quick and operational procedures to monitor change. We propose a simple but effective technique to mask out and identify annual crop areas (e.g. soybean) in the Brazilian Amazonian frontier using lower-order terms from a harmonic analysis approach derived by the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Preliminary results highlighted how annual crop areas and planted pasture from other vegetal units are easily separated using threshold slicing to generate a binary-mask of annual crops. Comparison with the reference map reached an overall accuracy of 91.89%, with overall kappa statistics of 0.8238.     

Detection of deforestation and land conversion in Rondônia,Brazil using change detection techniques

Fires associated with tropical deforestation, land conversion and land use greatly contribute to emissions as well as the depletion of carbon and nutrient pools. The objective of this research was to compare change detection techniques for identifying deforestation and cattle pasture formation during a period of early colonization and agricultural expansion in the vicinity of Jamari, Rondônia. Multi-date Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data between 1984 and 1992 were examined in a 94?370?ha area of active deforestation to map land cover change. The tasselled cap (TC) transformation was used to enhance the contrast between forest, cleared areas and regrowth. TC images were stacked into a composite multi-date TC and used in a principal components (PC) transformation to identify change components. In addition, consecutive TC image pairs were differenced and stacked into a composite multi-date differenced image. A maximum likelihood classification of each image composite was compared for identification of land cover change. The multi-date TC composite classification had the best accuracy of 0.78 (kappa). By 1984, only 5% of the study area had been cleared, but by 1992, 11% of the area had been deforested, primarily for pasture, and 7% lost due to hydroelectric dam flooding. Finally, discrimination of pasture versus cultivation was improved due to the ability to detect land under sustained clearing opposed to land exhibiting regrowth with infrequent clearing.     

Dual-season mapping of wetland inundation and vegetation for the central Amazon basin

Wetland extent was mapped for the central Amazon region, using mosaicked L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery acquired by the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1. For the wetland portion of the 18×8° study area, dual-season radar mosaics were used to map inundation extent and vegetation under both low-water and high-water conditions at 100-m resolution, producing the first high-resolution wetlands map for the region. Thematic accuracy of the mapping was assessed using high-resolution digital videography acquired during two aerial surveys of the Brazilian Amazon. A polygon-based segmentation and clustering was used to delineate wetland extent with an accuracy of 95%. A pixel-based classifier was used to map wetland vegetation and flooding state based on backscattering coefficients of two-season class combinations. Producer's accuracy for flooded and nonflooded forest classes ranged from 78% to 91%, with lower accuracy (63-65%) for flooded herbaceous vegetation. Seventeen percent of the study quadrat was occupied by wetlands, which were 96% inundated at high water and 26% inundated at low water. Flooded forest constituted nearly 70% of the entire wetland area at high water, but there are large regional variations in the proportions of wetland habitats. The SAR-based mapping provides a basis for improved estimates of the contribution of wetlands to biogeochemical and hydrological processes in the Amazon basin, a key question in the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazônia.     

Assessing the extent of agriculture/pasture and secondary succession forest in the Brazilian Legal Amazon using SPOT VEGETATION data

There has been growing concern about land use/land cover change in tropical regions, as there is evidence of its influence on the observed increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and consequent climatic changes. Mapping of deforestation by the Brazil's National Space Research Institute (INPE) in areas of primary tropical forest using satellite data indicates a value of 587,727 km² up to the year 2000. Although most of the efforts have been concentrated in mapping primary tropical forest deforestation, there is also evidence of large-scale deforestation in the cerrado savanna, the second most important biome in the region.The main purpose of this work was to assess the extent of agriculture/pasture and secondary succession forest in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) in 2000, using a set of multitemporal images from the 1-km SPOT-4 VEGETATION (VGT) sensor. Additionally, we discriminated primary tropical forest, cerrado savanna, and natural/artificial waterbodies. Four classification algorithms were tested: quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), simple classification trees (SCT), probability-bagging classification trees (PBCT), and k-nearest neighbors (K-NN). The agriculture/pasture class is a surrogate for those areas cleared of its original vegetation cover in the past, acting as a source of carbon. On the contrary, the secondary succession forest class behaves as a sink of carbon.We used a time series of 12 monthly composite images of the year 2000, derived from the SPOT-4 VGT sensor. A set of 19 Landsat scenes was used to select training and testing data. A 10-fold cross validation procedure rated PBCT as the best classification algorithm, with an overall sample accuracy of 0.92. High omission and commission errors occurred in the secondary succession forest class, due to confusion with agriculture/pasture and primary tropical forest classes. However, the PBCT algorithm generated the lower misclassification error in this class. Besides, this algorithm yields information about class membership probability, with ∼80% of the pixels with class membership probability greater or equal than 0.8. The estimated total area of agriculture/pasture and secondary succession forest in 2000 in the BLA was 966 × 10³ and 140 × 10³ km², respectively. Comparison with an existing land cover map indicates that agriculture/pasture occurred primarily in areas previously occupied by primary tropical forest (46%) and cerrado savanna (33%), and also in transition forest (19%), and other vegetation types (2%). This further confirms the existing evidence of extensive cerrado savanna conversion.This study also concludes that SPOT-4 VGT data are adequate for discriminating several major land cover types in tropical regions. Agriculture/pasture was mapped with errors of about 5%. Very high classification errors were associated with secondary succession forest, suggesting that a different methodology/sensor has to be used to address this difficult land cover class (namely with the inclusion of ancillary data). For the other classes, we consider that accurate maps can be derived from SPOT-4 VGT data with errors lower than 20% for the cerrado savanna, and errors lower than 10% for the other land cover classes. These estimates may be useful to evaluate impacts of land use/land cover change on the carbon and water cycles, biotic diversity, and soil degradation.     

The coregistration, calibration, and interpretation of multiseason JERS-1 SAR data over South America

The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) experiment in Amazônia represents a unique opportunity to make a comprehensive study of the Amazon region and its component ecosystems. To make sense of the field studies and to generalize the results from them, remote sensing techniques and comprehensive mapping are critical elements for producing region-wide science results. In this paper, we present the processing work done for one such mapping campaign, that of the JERS-1 L-band two season (low and high-flood) SAR data collected in 1995 and 1996. Specifically, to make a useable resource for other LBA researchers to explore, the datasets from the two seasons had to be coregistered (to a sub-pixel level), radiometrically calibrated, and interpreted to verify the quality of the data. This paper describes the techniques used to achieve these goals and an estimate of the land cover based on a simple classification of the data.     

The coregistration, calibration, and interpretation of multiseason JERS-1 SAR data over South America

The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) experiment in Amazônia represents a unique opportunity to make a comprehensive study of the Amazon region and its component ecosystems. To make sense of the field studies and to generalize the results from them, remote sensing techniques and comprehensive mapping are critical elements for producing region-wide science results. In this paper, we present the processing work done for one such mapping campaign, that of the JERS-1 L-band two season (low and high-flood) SAR data collected in 1995 and 1996. Specifically, to make a useable resource for other LBA researchers to explore, the datasets from the two seasons had to be coregistered (to a sub-pixel level), radiometrically calibrated, and interpreted to verify the quality of the data. This paper describes the techniques used to achieve these goals and an estimate of the land cover based on a simple classification of the data.     

Evaluation of hyperspectral data for pasture estimate in the Brazilian Amazon using field and imaging spectrometers

We used two hyperspectral sensors at two different scales to test their potential to estimate biophysical properties of grazed pastures in Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon. Using a field spectrometer, ten remotely sensed measurements (i.e., two vegetation indices, four fractions of spectral mixture analysis, and four spectral absorption features) were generated for two grass species, Brachiaria brizantha and Brachiaria decumbens. These measures were compared to above ground biomass, live and senesced biomass, and grass canopy water content. The sample size was 69 samples for field grass biophysical data and grass canopy reflectance. Water absorption measures between 1100 and 1250 nm had the highest correlations with above ground biomass, live biomass and canopy water content, while ligno-cellulose absorption measures between 2045 and 2218 nm were the best for estimating senesced biomass. These results suggest possible improvements on estimating grass measures using spectral absorption features derived from hyperspectral sensors. However, relationships were highly influenced by grass species architecture. B. decumbens, a more homogeneous, low growing species, had higher correlations between remotely sensed measures and biomass than B. brizantha, a more heterogeneous, vertically oriented species. The potential of using the Earth Observing-1 Hyperion data for pasture characterization was assessed and validated using field spectrometer and CCD camera data. Hyperion-derived NPV fraction provided better estimates of grass surface fraction compared to fractions generated from convolved ETM+/Landsat 7 data and minimized the problem of spectral ambiguity between NPV and Soil. The results suggest possible improvement of the quality of land-cover maps compared to maps made using multispectral sensors for the Amazon region.     

Relationships among soil fertility dynamics and remotely sensed measures across pasture chronosequences in Rondônia, Brazil

This study analyzed the relationships between soil fertility and remotely sensed measures over three pasture chronosequence sites in the state of Rondônia, in the western Brazilian Amazon region. Remotely sensed measures included shade, nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV), green vegetation (GV) and soil (derived from spectral mixture analysis), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). These were correlated against soil fertility parameters such as phosphorus, potassium, calcium, and base saturation. In temporal analysis, it was observed that NPV dominated the spectral responses of pasture canopies and tended to increase with pasture age as well. The increase of NPV appeared to be related to the decline of soil fertility, but soil texture variation also played a role. In the correlation analysis, soil P, known as the most limiting nutrient for pasture productivity, showed the highest correlation with remotely sensed measures, followed by soil K and base saturation. However, this result was not observed at the sites where nutrient availability was very low.     

Characterizing landscape changes in central Rondonia using Landsat TM imagery

An analysis of landscape changes in a region of pioneer settlements in central Rondonia, western Brazilian Amazon, was derived from Landsat TM data. Total deforested area increased from 206 x 103 ha in 1977, to 565 x 103 ha in 1985 and to 1210 x 103 ha, or 35.5% of the region, in 1995. Eighty-one per cent of the total 1995 deforestation had occurred in regions within 12.5km from areas of pioneer colonization deforested by 1977. Deforested area exceeded 79% in regions within 12.5km from the region's first road.     

AVHRR-based mapping of fires in Russia: New products for fire management and carbon cycle studies

A new database of fire activity in Russia derived from 1-km resolution remote sensing imagery is presented and discussed. The procedure used to generate this burned-area product is described, including active-fire detection and burn-scar mapping approaches. Fire detection makes use of a probabilistic procedure using image data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) system. Using the combination of AVHRR data collected at the Krasnoyarsk, Russia, high-resolution picture transmission (HRPT) receiving station, and data from the NOAA Satellite Active Archive (SAA), fire maps are being created for all of Russia for 1995 to 1997 and all of Eastern Russia (east of the Ural Mountains) for 1995 to 2002. This mapping effort has resulted in the most complete set of historic fire maps available for Russia. An initial validation indicates that the burned-area estimates are conservative because the approaches do not detect smaller fires, and, in many cases, fire areas are slightly underestimated. Analyses using the fire database showed that an average of 7.7×10⁶ ha yr⁻¹ of fire occurred in Eastern Russia between 1996 and 2002 and that fire was widely dispersed in different regions. The satellite-based burned-area estimates area were two to five times greater than those contained in official government burned-area statistics. The data show that there is significant interannual variability in area burned, ranging between a low of 1.5×10⁶ ha in 1997 to a high of 12.1×10⁶ ha in 2002. Seasonal patterns of fire are similar to patterns seen in the North American boreal region, with large-fire seasons experiencing more late-season burning (in August and September) than during low-fire years. There was a distinct zonal distribution of fires in Russia; 65% of the area burned occurred in the taiga zone, which includes southern, middle, and northern taiga subzones, 20% in the steppe and forest steppe zones, 12% in the mixed forest zone, and 3% in the tundra and forest-tundra zones. Lands classified as forest experienced 55% of all burned area, while crops and pastures, swamps and bogs, and grass and shrubs land cover categories experienced 13% to 15% each. Finally, the utility of the products is discussed in the context of fire management and carbon cycling.     

Space-time dynamics of deforestation in Brazilian Amazônia

Deforestation maps derived from Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery were used to analyse spatial patterns of deforestation in the 1970s and the 1991-1997 period in Brazilian Legal Amazonia. Nearly 90% of the deforestation has occurred within 100 km from major roads established under federal development programmes. Clearings larger than 50 ha and 200 ha accounted, respectively, for 74% and 50% of the total deforestation in the 1991-1997 period. Results show that more intense deforestation has been concentrated over some regions, leading to the continuous enlargement of forest clearings and contributing to aggravate deforestation impacts in such areas.     

Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change

We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socio-economic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change.     

Changes in agricultural cropland areas between a water-surplus year and a water-deficit year impacting food security,determined using MODIS 250 m time-series data and spectral matching techniques,in the Krishna River basin (India)

The objective of this study was to investigate the changes in cropland areas as a result of water availability using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m time-series data and spectral matching techniques (SMTs). The study was conducted in the Krishna River basin in India, a very large river basin with an area of 265 752 km² (26 575 200 ha), comparing a water-surplus year (2000–2001) and a water-deficit year (2002–2003). The MODIS 250 m time-series data and SMTs were found ideal for agricultural cropland change detection over large areas and provided fuzzy classification accuracies of 61–100% for various land‐use classes and 61–81% for the rain-fed and irrigated classes. The most mixing change occurred between rain-fed cropland areas and informally irrigated (e.g. groundwater and small reservoir) areas. Hence separation of these two classes was the most difficult. The MODIS 250 m-derived irrigated cropland areas for the districts were highly correlated with the Indian Bureau of Statistics data, with R ²-values between 0.82 and 0.86.

The change in the net area irrigated was modest, with an irrigated area of 8 669 881 ha during the water-surplus year, as compared with 7 718 900 ha during the water-deficit year. However, this is quite misleading as most of the major changes occurred in cropping intensity, such as changing from higher intensity to lower intensity (e.g. from double crop to single crop). The changes in cropping intensity of the agricultural cropland areas that took place in the water-deficit year (2002–2003) when compared with the water-surplus year (2000–2001) in the Krishna basin were: (a) 1 078 564 ha changed from double crop to single crop, (b) 1 461 177 ha changed from continuous crop to single crop, (c) 704 172 ha changed from irrigated single crop to fallow and (d) 1 314 522 ha changed from minor irrigation (e.g. tanks, small reservoirs) to rain-fed. These are highly significant changes that will have strong impact on food security. Such changes may be expected all over the world in a changing climate.