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1.
Paolo Dionigi Rossi Sarah Damanti Carolina Nani Mauro Pluderi Giulio Bertani Daniela Mari Matteo Cesari Dario Consonni Diego Spagnoli 《Journal of the American Medical Directors Association》2019,20(3):373-376.e3
Objectives
To evaluate the effects of repeated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tap procedures in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) patients ineligible for surgical treatment.Design
Prospective, monocentric, pilot study.Setting
University hospital.Participants
Thirty-nine patients aged 75 years and older, ineligible for shunting surgical intervention.Intervention
Repeated CSF taps.Measurements
All patients underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment before and after each CSF tap. Adverse events were recorded.Results
No major side effect was reported. Eleven patients showed no response to the first CSF tap test and were excluded. In the remaining 28 patients, all physical and cognitive functions improved after the drainage procedures, except for continence (which seemed poorly influenced). According to clinical judgment, the mean time frame of benefit between CSF taps was 7 months. Patients withdrawing from the protocol during the clinical follow-up showed a worsening of functional and cognitive performances after the interruption.Conclusions/Implications
Periodic CSF therapeutic taps are safe, allow a better control of iNPH symptoms, and prevent functional decline in geriatric patients. 相似文献2.
Anupam Chandra Parvez A. Rahman Amelia Sneve Rozalina G. McCoy Bjorg Thorsteinsdottir Rajeev Chaudhry Curtis B. Storlie Dennis H. Murphree Gregory J. Hanson Paul Y. Takahashi 《Journal of the American Medical Directors Association》2019,20(4):444-450.e2
Objectives
Patients discharged to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) for post-acute care have a high risk of hospital readmission. We aimed to develop and validate a risk-prediction model to prospectively quantify the risk of 30-day hospital readmission at the time of discharge to a SNF.Design
Retrospective cohort study.Setting
Ten independent SNFs affiliated with the post-acute care practice of an integrated health care delivery system.Participants
We evaluated 6032 patients who were discharged to SNFs for post-acute care after hospitalization.Measurements
The primary outcome was all-cause 30-day hospital readmission. Patient demographics, medical comorbidity, prior use of health care, and clinical parameters during the index hospitalization were analyzed by using gradient boosting machine multivariable analysis to build a predictive model for 30-day hospital readmission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was assessed on out-of-sample observations under 10-fold cross-validation.Results
Among 8616 discharges to SNFs from January 1, 2009, through June 30, 2014, a total of 1568 (18.2%) were readmitted to the hospital within 30 days. The 30-day hospital readmission prediction model had an AUC of 0.69, a 16% improvement over risk assessment using the Charlson Comorbidity Index alone. The final model included length of stay, abnormal laboratory parameters, and need for intensive care during the index hospitalization; comorbid status; and number of emergency department and hospital visits within the preceding 6 months.Conclusions and implications
We developed and validated a risk-prediction model for 30-day hospital readmission in patients discharged to a SNF for post-acute care. This prediction tool can be used to risk stratify the complex population of hospitalized patients who are discharged to SNFs to prioritize interventions and potentially improve the quality, safety, and cost-effectiveness of care. 相似文献3.
Anne C. Wheeler Amanda Wylie Adrienne Villagomez Ellen Bishop Melissa Raspa 《Disability and health journal》2019,12(2):269-277
Background
Previous research suggests that individuals with intellectual or developmental disabilities (IDD) may experience challenges accessing quality health care.Objective/Hypothesis
This study explored parent perceptions of access and quality of health care services for children with fragile X syndrome (FXS), the leading hereditary cause of intellectual/developmental disabilities.Methods
Nearly 600 primary caregivers of at least one child with FXS completed an online survey on access, barriers, and quality of health care for their family member with FXS (N?=?731).Results
In a convenience sample of well-educated and affluent caregivers, the majority did not report experiencing difficulties with access to services. Caregivers of younger children and those with lower family incomes reported greater challenges with health care access. Nearly 40% of caregivers indicated that their child's PCP was not as knowledgeable about FXS-related needs as they would prefer, indicating a possible knowledge gap on the part of providers.Conclusions
These factors represent potential barriers to quality health care for individuals with FXS, with potential lifelong effects ranging from delayed age of diagnosis to difficulty accessing a PCP in adulthood. 相似文献4.
The relation of abuse to physical and psychological health in adults with developmental disabilities
Rosemary B. Hughes Susan Robinson-Whelen Dora Raymaker Emily M. Lund Mary Oschwald Marsha Katz Albert Starr Elesia Ashkenazy Laurie E. Powers Christina Nicolaidis 《Disability and health journal》2019,12(2):227-234
Background
People with developmental disabilities are at disproportionately high risk of abuse. Although considerable evidence exists on the health-related consequences of abuse in the general population, little is known about those consequences in people with developmental disabilities.Objective
To examine the relation of abuse with psychological and physical health outcomes in adults with developmental disabilities.Methods
We used an accessible audio computer-assisted self-interview to collect anonymous data on demographic and disability characteristics, childhood and adult abuse experiences, and physical and psychological health from 350 women and men with developmental disabilities. Abuse experience was reflected by five factor scores consisting of three child abuse factors (childhood sexual abuse, childhood physical abuse, childhood disability-related abuse) and two adult abuse factors (adult sexual abuse, adult mixed abuse). We examined each of four health outcomes (depression, post trraumatic stress disorder, physical health symptoms, secondary health conditions) separately to determine the extent to which childhood and adult abuse experiences uniquely predicted psychological and physical health outcomes above and beyond demographic and disability-related characteristics.Results
All five abuse factor scores were significantly related to all four health outcomes. When examined simultaneously, childhood disability-related abuse and adult mixed abuse accounted for unique variance in outcomes. Exploratory analyses revealed no difference in the impact of abuse by gender.Conclusions
In this study, childhood disability-related abuse and adult mixed abuse significantly predicted lower levels of psychological and physical health in a sample of adults with developmental disabilities. Our findings highlight the importance of addressing abuse and its sequalae in the developmental disabilities community. 相似文献5.
Background
There is a need to examine health care utilization of individuals with the rare conditions muscular dystrophies, spina bifida, and fragile X syndrome. These individuals have a greater need for health care services, particularly inpatient admissions. Prior studies have not yet assessed 30-day all-cause readmission rates.Objective
To estimate 30-day hospital readmission rates among individuals with three rare conditions.Hypothesis
Rare conditions patients will have a higher 30-day all-cause readmission rate than those without.Methods
Data from three sources (2007–2014) were combined for this case-control analysis. A cohort of individuals with one of the three conditions was matched (by age in 5 year age groups, gender, and race) to a comparison group without a rare condition. Inpatient utilization and 30-day all-cause readmission rates were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analyses compared the odds of a 30-day all-cause readmission across the two groups, controlling for key covariates.Results
A larger proportion in the rare condition group had at least one inpatient visit (46.1%) vs. the comparison group (23.6%), and a higher 30-day all-cause readmission rate (Spina Bifida-46.7%, Muscular Dystrophy-39.7%, and Fragile X Syndrome-35.8%) than the comparison group (13.4%). Logistic regression results indicated that condition status contributed significantly to differences in readmission rates.Conclusions
Higher rates of inpatient utilization and 30-day all-cause readmission among individuals with rare conditions vs. those without are not surprising, given the medical complexity of these individuals, and indicates an area where unfavorable outcomes may be improved with proper care coordination and post discharge care. 相似文献6.
Thierry Bautrant Michel Grino Corinne Peloso Frédéric Schiettecatte Magali Planelles Charles Oliver Caroline Franqui 《Journal of the American Medical Directors Association》2019,20(3):377-381
Objectives
To determine whether environmental rearrangements of the long-term care nursing home can affect disruptive behavioral and psychological symptoms of dementia (BPSD) in residents with dementia.Design
Prospective 6-month study.Setting
The study was conducted before (phase 1) and after (phase 2) environmental rearrangements [skylike ceiling tiles in part of the shared premises, progressive decrease of the illuminance at night together with soothing streaming music, reinforcement of the illuminance during the day, walls painted in light beige, oversized clocks in corridors, and night team clothes color (dark blue) different from that of the day team (sky blue)].Participants
All of the patients (n = 19) of the protected unit were included in the study. They were aged 65 years or older and had an estimated life expectancy above 3 months.Measures
Number and duration of disruptive BPSD were systematically collected and analyzed over 24 hours or during late hours (6:00-12:00 pm) during each 3-month period.Results
There was no significant change in the patients' dependency, risk of fall, cognitive or depression indexes, or treatment between phase 1 and 2. Agitation/aggression and screaming were observed mainly outside the late hours as opposed to wandering episodes that were noticed essentially within the late hours. The number of patients showing wandering was significantly lower over 24 hours during phase 2. The number of agitation/physical aggression, wandering, and screaming and the mean duration of wandering episodes were significantly (P = .039, .002, .025, and .026 respectively) decreased over 24 hours following environmental rearrangements. Similarly, a significant reduction in the number and mean duration of wandering was noticed during the late hours (P = .031 and .007, respectively).Conclusions
Our study demonstrates that BPSD prevalence can be reduced following plain environmental rearrangements aimed at improving spatial and temporal orientation. 相似文献7.
Christina Chauvenet Molly De Marco Carolyn Barnes Alice S. Ammerman 《Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics》2019,119(3):416-424.e2
Background
The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) program is an important intervention for prevention and treatment of obesity and food insecurity, but participation has dropped among eligible populations from 2009 to 2015. Program satisfaction is integral to participant retention, and the retail experience is a vital component of program satisfaction.Objective
This article applies behavioral economics principles to explore the retail experience of WIC participants and ways in which it may be improved.Design
The authors designed and conducted semistructured interviews and focus groups with WIC participants.Participants/setting
A convenience sample of WIC participants aged 18 years and older were recruited through WIC clinics in Texas, North Carolina, Oregon, and Illinois (n=55, 27 participants from four focus groups and 28 individual interviews).Statistical analysis conducted
Responses were analyzed qualitatively using principles of content analysis.Results
Challenges in identifying WIC-allowable items throughout the store as well as perceived stigmatization during the checkout process were the chief complaints. Study participants described a learning curve in successful use of WIC in retail environments over time. Study participants also reported acceptance of restrictions, such as a requirement to purchase the least expensive brand.Conclusions
Dissatisfaction with the retail experience may lead to the underutilization of WIC benefits or program exit. Behavioral economics strategies that facilitate a better shopping experience, such as creating a section for WIC items in the store or improving in-store education, may improve the retail experience for WIC customers. Further research is needed to ensure such strategies are effective and do not contribute to stigma. 相似文献8.
Kathryn M. Nowotny Anastasiia Kuptsevych-Timmer Carrie Oser 《Women's health issues》2019,29(2):125-134
Background
It is well-established in the United States that incarceration negatively influences women's health, and researchers have called for examinations of the health effects of criminal justice contact more broadly. This study uses the behavioral model for vulnerable populations to document the prevalence of illness and health risks for recently arrested women, and examines potential ways that illness and health risks are associated with health service use across health care settings.Methods
We conducted a mediation analysis using pooled data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2010–2014).Results
These findings reveal that recent arrest is associated with different types of health care use among women. Specifically, women recently arrested are hospitalized and seek care at the emergency department at higher rates than non–recently arrested women and this may be associated with their vulnerable mental and behavioral health status.Conclusions
The findings suggest an increasing overlap between criminal justice and public health sectors. Increased access to appropriate health services is a necessary strategy to reduce resource intensive hospitalizations and emergency department use among women experiencing a recent arrest. 相似文献9.
10.
Colleen M. Heflin Claire E. Altman Laura L. Rodriguez 《Disability and health journal》2019,12(2):220-226
Background
Households with a disabled adult are disproportionately food insecure, yet the mechanisms linking food insecurity to disability are under-specified.Objective
To develop and empirically examine a model of the potential pathways connecting specific types of disability with food insecurity.Methods
With pooled, repeated cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (1999–2014) including 38,354 participants, we ran probit models to estimate the probability of being food insecure as a function of different sets of disability measures and our control variables. We explored the extent to which these patterns differed for prime-aged individuals (19–59) from those age 60 and older.Results
Work-limiting disabilities, functional limitations, and trouble managing money were associated with an increased likelihood of food insecurity for both prime-aged and older individuals, net of other forms of disability. Mobility limitations, trouble seeing, and trouble hearing increased the likelihood of food insecurity for prime-aged individuals only.Conclusion
These findings suggest that disabilities are associated with food insecurity through multiple pathways. Revised public health and policy solutions are needed to address the high rates of food insecurity among those with disabilities. 相似文献11.
Claudia Schulz Gisela Büchele Martin Rehm Dietrich Rothenbacher Patrick Roigk Kilian Rapp Christian Günster Hans-Helmut König Katrin Reber 《Journal of the American Medical Directors Association》2019,20(4):451-455.e3
Objectives
Hip fractures are common consequences of falls in older adults and, among other negative health outcomes, often lead to care dependence in the long term. Until 2016, the German long-term care insurance classified care recipients according to a standardized classification system consisting of 3 care levels. It was based on required assistance in performing activities of daily living and assessed by a qualified physician or nurse. Thus, care level reflects the degree of care dependence. The aim of this study was to determine relevant patient characteristics, which are related to the likelihood of increasing care dependence in terms of worsening care level after hip fracture.Design
Retrospective cohort study.Setting and participants
Statutory health insurance claims data including 122,922 insured individuals living in Germany and aged 65 years or older, who sustained a hip fracture from 2009 through 2011.Measures
The association of patient characteristics with worsening care level in the quarterly period after hip fracture was investigated by means of multinomial logit regression analysis. Death constitutes a competing risk and was modeled as additional nominal outcome.Results
Among all patients, crude rates were 30.9% for worsening care level, 54.8% for unchanged care level, and 14.4% for death after hip fracture. The multivariate analysis revealed that patient factors male sex, increasing age, increasing comorbidity, increasing inpatient length of stay, and a lack of inpatient rehabilitation were significantly associated with a worsening care level.Conclusions/Implications
This study uses the German standardized measurement of care dependence in terms of worsening care level after hip fracture and finds various related patient characteristics. Knowledge of these characteristics helps to identify possible risk groups for care dependence after hip fracture, for which special attention can be provided regarding treatment and prevention of hip fractures. 相似文献12.
Daniel Siconolfi Regina A. Shih Esther M. Friedman Virginia I. Kotzias Sangeeta C. Ahluwalia Jessica L. Phillips Debra Saliba 《Journal of the American Medical Directors Association》2019,20(4):503-508.e1
Objectives
Trends over time in the United States show success in rebalancing long-term services and supports (LTSS) toward increased home- and community-based services (HCBS) relative to institutionalized care. However, the diffusion and utilization of HCBS may be inequitable across rural and urban residents. We sought to identify potential disparities in rural HCBS access and utilization, and to elucidate factors associated with these disparities.Design
We used qualitative interviews with key informants to explore and identify potential disparities and their associated supply-side factors.Setting and participants
We interviewed 3 groups of health care stakeholders (Medicaid administrators, service agency managers and staff, and patient advocates) from 14 states (n = 40).Measures
Interviews were conducted using a semistructured interview guide, and data were thematically coded using a standardized codebook.Results
Stakeholders identified supply-side factors inhibiting rural HCBS access, including limited availability of LTSS providers, inadequate transportation services, telecommunications barriers, threats to business viability, and challenges to caregiving workforce recruitment and retention. Stakeholders perceived that rural persons have a greater reliance on informal caregiving supports, either as a cultural preference or as compensation for the dearth of HCBS.Conclusions/implications
LTSS rebalancing efforts that limit the institutional LTSS safety net may have unintended consequences in rural contexts if they do not account for supply-side barriers to HCBS. We identified supply-side factors that (1) inhibit beneficiaries' access to HCBS, (2) affect the adequacy and continuity of HCBS, and (3) potentially impact long-term business viability for HCBS providers. Spatial isolation of beneficiaries may contribute to a perceived lack of demand and reduce chances of funding for new services. Addressing these problems requires stakeholder collaboration and comprehensive policy approaches with attention to rural infrastructure. 相似文献13.
Juliana P. Antonio Roberta A. Sarmento Jussara C. de Almeida 《Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics》2019,119(4):652-658
Background
The overall diet quality of individuals and populations can be assessed by dietary indexes based on information from food surveys. Few studies have evaluated the diet quality of individuals with type 2 diabetes or its potential associations with glycemic control.Objective
To evaluate the relationship between diet quality and glycemic control.Design
Cross-sectional study with consecutive enrollment from 2013 to 2016.Participants
Outpatients with type 2 diabetes treated at a university hospital in southern Brazil.Main outcome measures
Dietary information was obtained by a quantitative food frequency questionnaire validated for patients with diabetes. Overall diet quality was evaluated by the Healthy Eating Index 2010. Glycemic control was assessed by fasting plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin.Statistical analyses
A receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed to find the optimal Healthy Eating Index cutoff point to discriminate diet quality, considering good glycemic control as glycated hemoglobin level <7%. Patients were then classified as having lower vs higher diet quality, and the two groups were compared statistically. Logistic regression models were constructed with glycated hemoglobin level ≥7% as the dependent variable, adjusted for age, current smoking, diabetes duration and treatment, physical activity, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and energy intake.Results
A total of 229 patients with type 2 diabetes (median age=63.0 years [interquartile range=58.0 to 68.5 years]; diabetes duration=10.0 years [interquartile range=5 to 19 years]; body mass index 30.8±4.3; and glycated hemoglobin=8.1% [interquartile range=6.9% to 9.7%]) were evaluated. A Healthy Eating Index score >65% yielded the best properties (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve=0.60; sensitivity=71.2%; specificity=52.1%; P=0.018). Patients with lower-quality diets were younger and more likely to be current smokers than patients with higher-quality diets. After adjusting for confounders, patients with lower-quality diets had nearly threefold odds of poorer glycemic control (2.92; 95% CI 1.27 to 6.71; P=0.012) than those in the higher-quality diet group.Conclusions
Lower diet quality, defined as an Healthy Eating Index 2010 score <65%, was associated with poor glycemic control in this sample of outpatients with type 2 diabetes. 相似文献14.
Chong-Han Kua Vivienne S.L. Mak Shaun Wen Huey Lee 《Journal of the American Medical Directors Association》2019,20(3):362-372.e11
Objectives
Deprescribing is effective in addressing concerns relating to polypharmacy in residents of nursing homes. However, the clinical outcomes of deprescribing interventions among residents in nursing homes are not well understood. We evaluated the impact of deprescribing interventions by health care professionals on clinical outcomes among the older residents in nursing homes.Design
Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. CINAHL, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception until September 2017; manual searches of reference lists of systematic reviews identified in the electronic search; and online trial registries for unpublished, ongoing, or planned trials. (PROSPERO CRD42016050028).Setting and Participants
Randomized controlled trials in a nursing home setting that included participants of at least 60 years of age.Measures
Falls, all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and potentially inappropriate medication were assessed in the meta-analysis.Results
A total of 41 randomized clinical studies (18,408 residents) that examined deprescribing (defined as either medication discontinuation, substitution, or reduction) in nursing were identified. Deprescribing interventions significantly reduced the number of residents with potentially inappropriate medications by 59% (odds ratio [OR] 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.19–0.89). In subgroup analysis, medication review–directed deprescribing interventions reduced all-cause mortality by 26% (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.65–0.84), as well as the number of fallers by 24% (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.62–0.93).Conclusions
Compared to other deprescribing interventions, medication review–directed deprescribing had significant benefits on older residents in nursing homes. Further research is required to elicit other clinical benefits of medication review–directed deprescribing practice. 相似文献15.
Brittany J. Johnson Jessica A. Grieger Thomas P. Wycherley Rebecca K. Golley 《Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics》2019,119(5):782-798.e6
Background
Excessive consumption of discretionary choices (nutrient-poor foods and beverages) negatively impacts on children’s diet quality and increases the risk of obesity and related chronic conditions. Dietary guidelines are complex, and simple messages based on effective dietary strategies are needed to improve population compliance with dietary guidelines.Objective
This study aimed to quantify the theoretical nutritional impact of dietary strategies targeting a reduction in discretionary choice intake in Australian children aged 2 to 18 years.Design
This study was a computer simulation dietary modeling design.Participants/setting
Participants were Australian children aged 2 to 18 years (n=2,812, population weighted N=4,770,094) from the National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2011-2012.Intervention
Simulations were performed on 24-hour recall dietary intake data to model theoretical impact on nutrient profile of moderating (50% reduction), substituting (replacing 50% of discretionary choices for core foods), and reformulating (reducing target nutrients within products) mean population intake of all discretionary choices.Main outcome measures
The main outcome measures were absolute and percentage change in nutrient profile (energy, saturated fat, added sugars, sodium).Statistical analyses performed
Simulations were performed using percent adjustment calculations and “What If” analyses. Sensitivity analyses were performed adjusting parameter uncertainties.Results
Moderation (energy ?4.8% to ?19.3%, saturated fat ?10.2% to ?24.5%, added sugars ?24.3% to ?43.1%, sodium ?6.4% to ?20.3%) and substitution (energy ?9.4% to ?15.4%, saturated fat ?7.6% to ?22.5%, added sugars ?39.2% to ?42.7%, sodium ?10.8% to ?19.0%) scenarios saw the greatest reductions across energy and target nutrients, with substitution scenarios modeling a smaller impact on protein, fiber, and micronutrients compared with the moderation strategy. The reformulation scenarios showed less theoretical reductions in energy intake (?1.1% to ?12.8%), despite the differences in saturated fat (?27.5%), added sugars (?25.5%), and sodium (?9.1%), between the primary scenarios compared with base case.Conclusions
Dietary strategies to reduce discretionary choices (moderation) or replace them with core (healthy) food group choices (substitution) show good theoretical improvements in energy intake and nutritional profile. Multinutrient reformulation approaches achieve reductions in saturated fat, added sugar, and sodium. To reduce population discretionary choices intake, the dietary strategies can inform policy and food industry and consumer education action. 相似文献16.
Angela R. Fertig Katie A. Loth Amanda C. Trofholz Allan D. Tate Michael Miner Dianne Neumark-Sztainer Jerica M. Berge 《Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics》2019,119(5):818-830
Background
Interest in initiatives that promote home cooking has been increasing, but no studies have examined whether home cooking is associated with dietary quality using longitudinal data on meals served in a diverse sample of families.Objective
The present study examined data on multiple meals per family in diverse households to determine whether home-cooked meals are more likely to contain nutritious ingredients than pre-prepared meals.Design
Data for the study came from the National Institutes of Health–funded Family Matters Study. As part of this study, between 2015 and 2016, 150 families provided ecological momentary assessment data on 3,935 meals over an 8-day observation window.Participants/setting
In this study, investigators followed 150 families with children aged 5 to 7 years old from six racial/ethnic groups (n=25 each non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, Native American, Hmong, and Somali families). Recruitment occurred through primary care clinics serving low-income populations in Minnesota.Main outcome measures
The main outcomes were participants’ self-reports of whether they served fruits, vegetables, and whole grains at a meal, and reports were made within hours of the meal.Statistical analyses performed
Within-group estimator methods were used to estimate the associations between meal preparation and types of food served. These models held constant time-invariant characteristics of families and adjusted for whether the meal was breakfast, lunch, dinner, or a snack and whether it was a weekend meal.Results
For all racial/ethnic and poverty status groups, meals that were fully or partly home-cooked were more likely to contain fruits and vegetables than pre-prepared meals (P<0.001). Meals that were partly home-cooked were the most likely to contain whole grains (P<0.001). Restaurant meals were more likely to contain vegetables than pre-prepared meals (P<0.001) but were equally likely to contain fruits and/or whole grains as pre-prepared meals.Conclusions
Interventions or initiatives that encourage fully or partly home-cooked meals may help families incorporate nutritious foods into their diets. In addition, evaluations of potential strategies to increase the likelihood of supplementing pre-prepared and restaurant meals with nutritious meal ingredients warrants further investigation. 相似文献17.
18.
Paul Arora Devon Boyne Justin J. Slater Alind Gupta Darren R. Brenner Marek J. Druzdzel 《Value in health》2019,22(4):439-445
Objective
The fields of medicine and public health are undergoing a data revolution. An increasing availability of data has brought about a growing interest in machine-learning algorithms. Our objective is to present the reader with an introduction to a knowledge representation and machine-learning tool for risk estimation in medical science known as Bayesian networks (BNs).Study Design
In this article we review how BNs are compact and intuitive graphical representations of joint probability distributions (JPDs) that can be used to conduct causal reasoning and risk estimation analysis and offer several advantages over regression-based methods. We discuss how BNs represent a different approach to risk estimation in that they are graphical representations of JPDs that take the form of a network representing model random variables and the influences between them, respectively.Methods
We explore some of the challenges associated with traditional risk prediction methods and then describe BNs, their construction, application, and advantages in risk prediction based on examples in cancer and heart disease.Results
Risk modeling with BNs has advantages over regression-based approaches, and in this article we focus on three that are relevant to health outcomes research: (1) the generation of network structures in which relationships between variables can be easily communicated; (2) their ability to apply Bayes’s theorem to conduct individual-level risk estimation; and (3) their easy transformation into decision models.Conclusions
Bayesian networks represent a powerful and flexible tool for the analysis of health economics and outcomes research data in the era of precision medicine. 相似文献19.
Background
Immune-checkpoint inhibitors may provide long-term survival benefits via a cured proportion, yet data are usually insufficient to prove this upon submission to health technology assessment bodies.Objective
We revisited the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessment of ipilimumab in melanoma (TA319). We used updated data from the pivotal trial to assess the accuracy of the extrapolation methods used and compared these to previously unused techniques to establish whether an alternative extrapolation may have provided more accurate survival projections.Methods
We compared projections from the piecewise survival model used in TA319 and those produced by alternative models (fit to trial data with minimum follow-up of 3 years) to a longer-term data cut (5-year follow-up). We also compared projections to external data to help assess validity. Alternative approaches considered were parametric, spline-based, mixture, and mixture-cure models.Results
Only the survival model used in TA319 and a mixture-cure model provided 5-year survival predictions close to those observed in the 5-year follow-up data set. Standard parametric, spline, and non–curative-mixture models substantially underestimated 5-year survival. Survival estimates from the TA319 model and the mixture-cure model diverge considerably after 5 years and remain unvalidated.Conclusions
In our case study, only models that incorporated an element of external information (through a cure fraction combined with background mortality rates or using registry data) provided accurate estimates of 5-year survival. Flexible models that were able to capture the complex hazard functions observed during the trial, but which did not incorporate external information, extrapolated poorly. 相似文献20.
