基于知识的景象适配性分析决策系统

文章考察了目前选择景象匹配区的准则的缺陷,阐述了景象适配性分析方法应该综合考虑景象的独特性度量值、时效性特征、专家经验知识、末段飞行约束条件等因素。将基准图的特征结合匹配概率估计值表达成决策表的形式,基于粗糙集理论进行适配性分析系统的知识提取,融合专家经验、末段飞行约束条件形成知识库。然后结合模型方法库,通过不确定性推理机制,建立了基于知识的景象适配性分析决策系统。     

Predicting financial activity with evolutionary fuzzy case-based reasoning

Predicting financial activity through examining the short-term liquidity is crucial within today’s turbulent financial environment. Firms, governments, and individuals all need an effective methodology based on liquidity information that plays performance deterioration warning a priori bankruptcy prediction. In this paper, we propose a hybrid decision model using case-based reasoning augmented with genetic algorithms (GAs) and the fuzzy k nearest neighbor (fuzzy k-NN) methods for predicting the financial activity rate. GAs are used to determine the optimal or near-optimal weight vector of financial features expressed in linguistic values by the expert. A fuzzy k-NN-based CBR scheme is designed to compute memberships of financial activity rates and to provide a more flexible and practical mechanism for acquiring, creating, and reusing the expert’s decision knowledge. An empirical experimentation using 746 publicly traded Taiwanese firms shows that the average accuracy of the rating is about 92.36%, which is superior to other related models. The proposed approach not only can lend support to the decision of an expert, but also allow proper feedback for the expert to improve the quality of the decision.     

A Strategy of Dynamic Reasoning in Knowledge-Based System with Fuzzy Production Rules

Fuzzy production rules have been successfully applied to represent uncertainty in a knowledge-based system. The knowledge organized as a knowledge base is static. On the other hand, a real system such as the stock market is dynamic in nature. Therefore we need a strategy to reflect the dynamic nature of a system when we make reasoning with a knowledge-based system.This paper proposes a strategy of dynamic reasoning that can be used to takes account the dynamic behavior of decision-making with the knowledge-based system consisted of fuzzy rules. A degree of match (DM) between actual input information and antecedent of a rule is represented by a value in interval [0, 1]. Weights of relative importance of attributes in a rule are obtained by the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. Then these weights are applied as exponents for the DM, and the DMs in a rule are combined, with the Min operator, into a single DM for the rule. In this way, the importance of attributes of a rule, which can be changed from time to time, can be reflected to reasoning in knowledge-based system with fuzzy rules.With the proposed reasoning procedure, a decision maker can take his judgment on the given decision environment into a static knowledge base with fuzzy rules when he makes decision with the knowledge base. This procedure can be automated as a pre-processing system for fuzzy expert systems. Thereby the quality of decisions could be enhanced.     

A fuzzy expert database system

Fuzzy concepts always exist in much of human reasoning as well as decision making. This paper presents a fuzzy expert database system which is an integration of a fuzzy expert system building tool called SYSTEM Z-II and a database management system called Rdb/VMS. This system is able to extract fuzzy data and terms stored in a database and used in the fuzzy reasoning in an expert system. It can also retrieve information by fuzzy database-queries which are generated by the expert system automatically. Many expert systems in different domain areas such as decision making can be constructed. Sample applications are described to demonstrate the flexibility and power of this system. The fuzzy query language defined and used in the system can also be used independently as a fuzzy enquiry tool in database applications.     

基于模糊框架-产生式知识表示及推理研究

知识表示是专家系统求解能力及正确性的基础。针对不同知识表示方法的局限性,采用框架与产生式知识表示法结合表示专家知识。同时鉴于传统知识表示及推理方法在描述事实生产中不确定知识及经验中的缺陷问题,将模糊推理与知识表示相结合,应用模糊因子,定量细化描述模糊知识;并结合知识表示特点应用动态加权平均匹配函数及模糊推理方法,提出基于模糊框架-产生式知识表示方法及推理的研究,量化地表示知识及推理过程,为决策人员提供更加直观、准确的推理依据。     

基于测度递进的模糊认知图及其应用

模糊认知图(fuzzy cognitive map,FCM)具有简单的推理机制和较强的因果关系表达能力,已得到广泛关注和研究,但FCM对专家经验知识具有较强的依赖性,故而限制了在复杂动态系统建模中的应用.基于此,提出了一种测度递进策略的模糊认知图学习方法.利用线性回归算法,学习得到模糊认知图权重矩阵粗模型;将神经网络的权值调整算法应用于权重矩阵粗模型的细化过程,将该模糊认知图模型应用在股票市场,实现对股票日均值的预测.实验结果表明了该建模方式是有效的.     

搅拌器选型专家系统的知识处理和系统实现

从知识获取,知识表达,采用模糊集理论处理领域中不确定性知识以及群组决策等方面,阐述了搅拌器选型专家系统知识处理的解决方案。由系统结构和操作过程,对整个专家系统如何实现进行了描述。     

NEW METHODOLOGY TO FUZZY REASONING FOR RULE-BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS

Abstract

Much knowledge residing in the knowledge base of an expert system involves fuzzy concepts. A powerful expert system must have the capability of fuzzy reasoning. This paper presents a new methodology for dealing with fuzzy reasoning based on the matching function S. The single-input, single-output (SISO) fuzzy reasoning scheme and the multi-input, single-output (MISO) fuzzy reasoning schemes are discussed in detail. The proposed fuzzy reasoning methodology is conceptually clearer than the compositional rule of inference approach. It can provide an useful way for rule-based systems to deal with fuzzy reasoning.     

冲裁工艺设计决策专家系统及实现

冲裁工艺设计是一种设计决策问题,有一定代表性,很需要采用专家系统技术求解。讨论冲裁工艺设计专家系统的实现技术,包括工艺方案选择和工步设计等问题的解决方案、面向对象的知识表示和推理机制、模糊知识表示与模糊推理技术的灵活应用、图形的自动识别处理与生成等。     

Fuzzy multiattribute group decision making based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets and evidential reasoning methodology

In this paper, we propose a new fuzzy multiattribute group decision making method based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets and the evidential reasoning methodology. First, the proposed method uses the evidential reasoning methodology to aggregate each decision maker’s decision matrix and the weights of the attributes to get the aggregated decision matrix of each decision maker. Then, it uses the obtained aggregated decision matrices of the experts, the weights of the experts and the evidential reasoning methodology to get the aggregated intuitionistic fuzzy value of each alternative. Finally, it calculates the transformed value of the obtained intuitionistic fuzzy value of each alternative. The smaller the transformed value, the better the preference order of the alternative. The proposed method can overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods for fuzzy multiattribute group decision making in intuitionistic fuzzy environments.     

Fuzzy multi attribute group decision making method to achieve consensus under the consideration of degrees of confidence of experts’ opinions

The aim of this paper is to introduce a fuzzy multi attribute group decision making technique considering the degrees of confidence of experts’ opinions. In the process of decision making, each expert provides his/her evaluation over the alternatives depending on a finite set of attributes and constructs an individual fuzzy decision matrix. The proposed technique establishes an iterative process to aggregate the fuzzy information, given by individual expert, into group consensus opinion by using the fuzzy similarity measure. Then, based on group consensus opinion, the proposed approach utilizes the fuzzy similarity measure to find out the most desirable alternative through approximate reasoning. The proposed decision making technique is more flexible due to the fact that it considers the degrees of confidence of experts’ opinions. Finally an example has been shown to highlight the proposed methodology.     

A new approach to fuzzy reasoning

 Over the last years fuzzy control has become a very popular and successful control paradigm. The basic idea of fuzzy control is to incorporate human expert knowledge. This expert knowledge is specified in a rule based manner on a high and granular level of abstraction. By using vague predicates a fuzzy rule base neglects useless details and concentrates on important relations. Following L.A. Zadeh’s famous principle of incompatibility, this technique is most promising when applied to large and complex problems. Nevertheless, nowadays most fuzzy rule bases are small and represent simple knowledge. From our point of view this surprising and somewhat disappointing observation is due to a major lack of understanding how to handle a fuzzy rule base. In this paper we present a new theory for fuzzy reasoning. This theory is twofold. In general, a fuzzy rule base is both partially inconsistent and partially incomplete. This is the price to pay for abstraction and granularization. We show that if a fuzzy rule base maximizes consistency at the cost of completeness, the well-known possibilistic approach to fuzzy inference is the right choice. For a fuzzy rule base that maximizes completeness at the cost of consistency, we derive a new type of inference called σ-reasoning. Together, both mechanisms form an embracing theory for fuzzy reasoning in general. We propose a combined approach to be applied in order to manage complex rule bases.     

利用专家系统建模——对人工智能的应用研究

专家系统是为了方便对各种问题制定决策,模拟专家的推理而设计的计算机程序。专家系统在表现那些需要制定决策的问题解决任务中尤其有效。建构专家系统规则库的学生对任一知识领域内概念之间动态的、临时的关系都会进行反思性思考。建构专家系统用到的思维方式可能是各种认知工具中最难的,因为它需要形式推理与逻辑推理,建构专家系统需要智力上的参与和挑战。     

基于Vague集模糊推理的多评价指标模糊决策方法

目前在智能领域中对Vague集的研究已越来越广泛与深入，并运用于决策问题中，有学者已把Vague集用于多评价指标的模糊决策中，但其决策方法在某些时候却难以得到目标。为此，本文提出了一个基于Vague集模糊推理的多评价指标模糊决策方法。在这个方法中，从基于Vague集的模糊推理的观点来看待模糊决策问题。将评价指标和候选方案之间的关系用一组基于Vague集的推理规则来表示，将决策者的要求用一组Vague集来表示，经过模糊推理等过程最后得到决策结果。然后还给出了一个实例说明这种多评价指标模糊决策方法。这个基于Vague集模糊推理的多评价指标模糊决策方法的提出为决策系统提供了一个有用的工具。     

A cognitive approach for agent-based personalized recommendation

There is an increasing need for various e-service, e-commerce and e-business sites to provide personalized recommendations to on-line customers. This paper proposes a new type of personalized recommendation agents called fuzzy cognitive agents. Fuzzy cognitive agents are designed to give personalized suggestions based on the user’s current personal preferences, other user’s common preferences, and expert’s domain knowledge. Fuzzy cognitive agents are able to represent knowledge via extended fuzzy cognitive maps, to learn users’ preferences from most recent cases and to help customers make inferences and decisions through numeric computation instead of symbolic and logic deduction. A case study is included to illustrate how personalized recommendations are made by fuzzy cognitive agents in e-commerce sites. The case study demonstrates that the fuzzy cognitive agent is both flexible and effective in supporting e-commerce applications.     

A dynamic fuzzy cognitive map applied to chemical process supervision

This work develops an intelligent tool based on fuzzy cognitive maps to supervisory process control. Fuzzy cognitive maps are a neuro-fuzzy methodology that can accurate model complexly system using a causal-effect fuzzy reasoning. In the proposed approach, new types of concept and relation, not restricted to cause–effect ones, are added to the model resulting in a dynamic fuzzy cognitive map (D-FCM). In this sense, a supervisory system is developed in order to control a fermentation process. This process has a non-linear behavior and presents several problems, such as non-minimum phase and large accommodation time. The supervisor goal is to operate the process in normal and critical conditions. The expert knowledge about the process behavior in both conditions is used to build the D-FCM supervisor. Simulation results are presented in order to validate the proposed intelligent supervisor.     

认知图理论的应用研究

认知图又称心象图,是近年来研究的热点。它是一种定性推理技术,也可以看作是一种计算智能,能有效地解决基于先验知识的自适应行为。文中对认知图理论作了系统的归纳总结,主要包括古典认知图和模糊认知图两方面,模糊认知图是认知图的延伸与扩展。文中通过对模糊认知图扩展模型的描述以及扩展模型之间优缺点的比较,得出了模糊认知图扩展模型的实用性和优越性。     

A new methodology for Decisions in Medical Informatics using fuzzy cognitive maps based on fuzzy rule-extraction techniques

In this research work, a novel framework for the construction of augmented Fuzzy Cognitive Maps based on Fuzzy Rule-Extraction methods for decisions in medical informatics is investigated. Specifically, the issue of designing augmented Fuzzy Cognitive Maps combining knowledge from experts and knowledge from data in the form of fuzzy rules generated from rule-based knowledge discovery methods is explored. Fuzzy cognitive maps are knowledge-based techniques which combine elements of fuzzy logic and neural networks and work as artificial cognitive networks. The knowledge extraction methods used in this study extract the available knowledge from data in the form of fuzzy rules and insert them into the FCM, contributing to the development of a dynamic decision support system. The fuzzy rules, which derived by these extraction algorithms (such as fuzzy decision trees, association rule-based methods and neuro-fuzzy methods) are implemented to restructure the FCM model, producing new weights into the FCM model, that initially structured by experts. Concluding, our scope is to present a new methodology through a framework for decision making tasks using the soft computing technique of FCMs based on knowledge extraction methods. A well known medical decision making problem pertaining to the problem of radiotherapy treatment planning selection is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed framework and its functioning.     

基于直觉模糊推理的多属性群决策方法研究*

针对属性取值以直觉模糊数形式给出的多属性决策问题,提出了基于直觉模糊推理的多属性群决策方法。首先针对专家的评价信息构建直觉决策推理规则,然后根据规则之间的关系给出了决策推理模型,进而给出了基于直觉模糊推理的决策方法;最后通过购房实例验证了该方法的正确性和有效性。