Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change

Earth's climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO(2) greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO(2), so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts in emissions of CO(2), reducing non-CO(2) greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of contributing to this goal.     

进入21世纪的气候变化科学--气候变化的事实、影响与对策

近百年来，地球气候正经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化，我国的气候变化趋势与全球气候变化的总趋势基本一致。近50年的气候变暖主要是人类使用化石燃料排放的大量二氧化碳等温室气体的增温效应造成的。现有的预测表明，未来50-100年全球和我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展。国际上，目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》正在就如何减缓这种气候变暖的趋势和控制温室气体排放进行谈判。本文依据IPCC第三次评估报告与国内外最新的研究成果，说明气候变化的事实与未来的可能变化，阐述冰冻圈对气候变化的响应，进而说明气候变化对生态系统和社会经济的影响，分析气候变化给我国带来的挑战和机遇并提出对策建议。     

Variations in air temperature during the last 100 years revealed by δ~(18)O in the Malanice core from the Tibetan Plateau

By comprehensive analyses,it was found that the variations in δ^18O recorded in Malan ice core from the Kekexili Region on the Tibetan Plateau could represent the changes in air temperature during the summer half year (from May to October) over the Kekexili Region and the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau.The general increase trend in δ^18O in the ice core during the past century indicated climate warming,and it was estimated that air temperature during the summer half-year rose about 1.2℃ over there then.However,this ice core record documented that the study area has been cooling while most of the world has been dramatically warming since the late 1970s. A tele-connection was found between the variations in δ^18O in the Malan ice core and the North Atlantic Oscillation.Moreover,the variations in δ^18O in this ice core were similar to that in the summer half-year air temperature over the southern Tibetan Plateau on the centurial time scale,but opposite on the multidecadal time scale.     

Decrease trend of dust event frequency over the past 200 years recorded in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau

By analyses of the dust layers in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau, it was found that dirty ratio in this core might be a good proxy for dust event frequency. The variations in the dirty ratio displayed a decrease trend over the past 200 years, which implies that dust events became less frequent during the study period. The decrease trend in the variations in dust event frequency might be caused mostly by the natural processes, including increasing precipitation and weakening westerly which might be related with global warming. Furthermore, significant negative correlation was found between the dirty ratio and δ^18O in the Malan ice core. This is highly important for studying the effect of atmospheric dust on climate change.     

碳捕获与封存技术专利分析

碳捕获与封存（CCS）是在不需要降低化石燃料使用量的情况下,减少温室气体排入大气的一种手段。为了达到这种效果,必须使用技术从排放气体中分离和捕获二氧化碳,并把二氧化碳转化为甲醇等资源或者把二氧化碳封存到地质沉积物中。随着温室气体排放与气候变暖问题的加剧,国际上对CCS技术的关注日益加强,这也反映在专利申请的发展趋势上。利用Thomson Data Analyzer分析工具和Aureka分析平台对Derwent Innovations Index（DII）专利文献进行分析,表明CCS专利主要涉及化学、工程、仪器、能源与燃料、高分子科学等学科领域。CCS技术经历了起步阶段、波动增长阶段和快速增长阶段。DII收录的CCS专利主要来自日本、美国、德国、中国、法国等。各国研究的重点有所不同,德国用催化剂从废气等中脱除氮氧化物的比例比其他国家高,法国通过液化或固化分离气体的比例较高,荷兰一般化合碳方面所占比例高。最近3Af-加拿大、中国、韩国申请专利的数量增长速度最快,表明这些国家近期在该技术领域创新比较活跃。对CCS技术的关注在今后一段时间内将持续上升,我国需继续支持该领域的研发创新工作。     

Mitigation of greenhouse gases released from mining activities: A review

Climate changes that occur as a result of global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases(GHGs)released into the atmosphere are an alarming issue.Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is critically important for the current and future status of mining activities.The mining industry is one of the significant contributors of greenhouse gases.In essence,anthropogenic greenhouse gases are emitted directly during the actual mining and indirectly released by the energy-intensive activities associated with mining equipment,ore transport,and the processing industry.Therefore,we reviewed both direct and indirect GHG emissions to analyze how mining contributes to climate change.In addition,we showed how climate change impacts mineral production.This assessment was performed using a GHG inventory model for the gases released from mines undergoing different product life cycles.We also elucidate the key issues and various research outcomes to demonstrate how the mining industry and policymakers can mitigate GHG emission from the mining sector.The review concludes with an overview of GHG release reduction and mitigation strategies.     

Origins and estimates of uncertainty in predictions of twenty-first century temperature rise

Predictions of temperature rise over the twenty-first century are necessarily uncertain, both because the sensitivity of the climate system to changing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, as well as the rate of ocean heat uptake, is poorly quantified and because future influences on climate-of anthropogenic as well as natural origin-are difficult to predict. Past observations have been used to help constrain the range of uncertainties in future warming rates, but under the assumption of a particular scenario of future emissions. Here we investigate the relative importance of the uncertainty in climate response to a particular emissions scenario versus the uncertainty caused by the differences between future emissions scenarios for our estimates of future change. We present probabilistic forecasts of global-mean temperatures for four representative scenarios for future emissions, obtained with a comprehensive climate model. We find that, in the absence of policies to mitigate climate change, global-mean temperature rise is insensitive to the differences in the emissions scenarios over the next four decades. We also show that in the future, as the signal of climate change emerges further, the predictions will become better constrained.     

Mitigation of greenhouse gases released from mining activities: A review

Climate changes that occur as a result of global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases(GHGs) released into the atmosphere are an alarming issue.Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is critically important for the current and future status of mining activities.The mining industry is one of the significant contributors of greenhouse gases.In essence, anthropogenic greenhouse gases are emitted directly during the actual mining and indirectly released by the energy-intensive activities associated with mining equipment, ore transport,and the processing industry.Therefore, we reviewed both direct and indirect GHG emissions to analyze how mining contributes to climate change.In addition, we showed how climate change impacts mineral production.This assessment was performed using a GHG inventory model for the gases released from mines undergoing different product life cycles.We also elucidate the key issues and various research outcomes to demonstrate how the mining industry and policymakers can mitigate GHG emission from the mining sector.The review concludes with an overview of GHG release reduction and mitigation strategies.     

Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure

Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.     

气候变化对中国农业的影响

 在全球气候变化背景下,中国的气温不断增高,近50年中国年平均地表气温增加了1.1℃,明显高于全球;降水变化趋势不明显,年代际波动较大,也存在明显的地区差别;极端天气气候事件不断增多。未来气候变化情景,预计中国北方增温幅度高于南方,青藏高原增温最明显,年降水量增加显著区域为华北、西北及东北地区,长江中下游沿岸及其以南地区有小幅度增加。气候变暖将使粮食作物水稻、玉米和小麦的生育期缩短,产量下降;有利于棉花生产,能提高北方棉花产量和品质;三熟区面积将扩大约22.4%,一熟区面积约缩小23.1%,作物种植结构和作物品种的布局将发生变化;主要农作物病虫害呈加重趋势;对温带和寒带的家畜生长是有利的,对热带和亚热带家畜和牧草生长不利;中国四大海区主要经济鱼种的产量和渔获量有不同程度的降低;气候变暖将使中国各类自然植被发生明显北移,土地荒漠化危害范围加大,土壤肥力下降,并增加农业灌溉的需水量,农业水资源供需矛盾加剧。中国农业应对气候变化包括减缓和适应两个方面,应减缓和适应并重。     

Responses of South and East Asian summer monsoons to different land-sea temperature increases under a warming scenario

We used outputs from climate models that participated in the fourth assessment (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluate the responses of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulations to different warming over land and ocean under a medium warming scenario, SRES A1B. Our results suggest that, even though near-surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is greater than that over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the northwestern Pacific (NWP), the upper-tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts between the TP and the TIO (TP-TIO) and between the TP and the NWP (TP-NWP) will decrease. At interdecadal and longer time scales, the change in the SASM circulation is consistent with the TP-TIO upper-troposphere thermal contrast. Conversely, the change in the EASM circulation is consistent with the TP-NWP lower-troposphere thermal contrast. However, at the interannual time scale, both changes in the EASM and SASM are significantly correlated with the upper-troposphere thermal contrast. Further analyses suggest that increases in moisture and changes in cloud cover induced by global warming may cause amplified upper-tropospheric warming over the TP and the oceans resulting in inconsistent changes in the vertical temperature distribution over these regions. Because the warming over the TIO and NWP is greater than that over the TP, the TP-TIO meridional and TP-NWP zonal thermal contrasts will both decrease. However, at the lower layer, the difference in thermal capacity between land and sea result in a larger thermal effect in the near-surface region of the TP than those over the surrounding oceans. We showed that a range of factors that affect thermal conditions will likely cause changes in the Asian monsoon across a range of time scales under a warming scenario. These changes reflect differences in the influence of the greenhouse effect and natural variability.     

云南近50a雾的变化特征

 利用1961~2008年云南120个县市逐月雾日资料,分析了云南近50a雾日的时空变化特征以及对气候变暖的响应.结果表明:①云南雾日具有明显的区域分布.全年及四季雾日有从北到南有增加的趋势.②云南雾日的发生具有明显月际变化特征.云南全年各月都有雾日发生,主要集中于11月、12月和1月,最多的月份是12月.从季节分布来看,云南属典型的冬雾发生区.从不同气候带看,北热带、南亚热带、中亚热带、北亚热带及温带属于典型冬雾发生区,最大月是12月;高原气候带属于典型夏雾发生区,最大月是7月.③近50a来云南全省四季及年的总变化趋势非常一致,为减少的趋势.6个气候带年雾日频次近50a总的变化趋势也为减少的趋势.④云南年及四季雾日也存在明显的年代际变化.6个气候带年雾日频次也存在明显的年代际变化.⑤云南各地对气候变暖的响应程度不一致,云南滇中以西以南大部地区雾日频次对气候变暖有着极好的响应,即偏暖时期,雾日频次偏少,而偏冷时期则偏多.     

Climatology: threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet

The Greenland ice-sheet would melt faster in a warmer climate and is likely to be eliminated--except for residual glaciers in the mountains--if the annual average temperature in Greenland increases by more than about 3 degrees C. This could raise the global average sea-level by 7 metres over a period of 1,000 years or more. We show here that concentrations of greenhouse gases will probably have reached levels before the year 2100 that are sufficient to raise the temperature past this warming threshold.     

Amplitude of climatic changes in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

On the basis of ice core and meteorological data from the Qinghai-Tibetan (Q-T) Plateau, this article focuses on the discussion of the problems related to the sensitivity of temporal and spatial changes of the climate in high-altitude regions, particularly in the Q-T Plateau. The features of abrupt climatic changes of the past 100 ka, 2 000 a and recent years indicate that the amplitude of these changes in the Q-T Plateau was obviously larger than that in low-altitude regions. The scope of temperature change above 6 000 m in the Q-T Plateau between glacial and interglacial stages could reach over 10°C, but only about 4°C in low-elevation regions close to sea level. During the last 2 000 a, the amplitude of temperature changes at Guliya (over 6 000 m a.s.l.) in the Q-T Plateau reached 7°C, in comparison with 2°C in eastern China at low altitude. In the present age, apparent differences of climatic warming have been observed in the Q-T Plateau, indicating that the warming in high-elevation regions is much higher than that in low-elevation regions. The temperature in over 3 500 m regions of the Q-T Plateau have been increasing at a rate of 0.25×10¹/a in recent 30 years, but almost no change has taken place in the regions below 500 m. Thus, we concluded that high-altitude regions are more sensitive to climatic changes than the low-altitude regions.     

末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川变化对亚洲气候的影响

以末次冰盛期(约2.6~1.9万年前)的气候为背景, 利用大气模式CAM4耦合陆面模式CLM4, 对青藏高原冰川规模扩大对气候产生的影响进行研究。结果表明, 末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川对北半球夏季的气候影响较显著, 除在冰川分布区引起显著的降温外, 通过遥相关作用, 还使得白令海峡附近显著升温。另外, 冰川产生的扰动会显著地增强南亚夏季风, 增加南亚地区降水。对比末次冰盛期与工业革命前时期不同气候态下青藏高原冰川规模扩大对气候的影响, 发现工业革命前时期的影响显著小于末次冰盛期, 说明青藏高原冰川对气候的影响与背景气候态有关。     

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.     

Warming trends in Asia amplified by brown cloud solar absorption

Atmospheric brown clouds are mostly the result of biomass burning and fossil fuel consumption. They consist of a mixture of light-absorbing and light-scattering aerosols and therefore contribute to atmospheric solar heating and surface cooling. The sum of the two climate forcing terms-the net aerosol forcing effect-is thought to be negative and may have masked as much as half of the global warming attributed to the recent rapid rise in greenhouse gases. There is, however, at least a fourfold uncertainty in the aerosol forcing effect. Atmospheric solar heating is a significant source of the uncertainty, because current estimates are largely derived from model studies. Here we use three lightweight unmanned aerial vehicles that were vertically stacked between 0.5 and 3 km over the polluted Indian Ocean. These unmanned aerial vehicles deployed miniaturized instruments measuring aerosol concentrations, soot amount and solar fluxes. During 18 flight missions the three unmanned aerial vehicles were flown with a horizontal separation of tens of metres or less and a temporal separation of less than ten seconds, which made it possible to measure the atmospheric solar heating rates directly. We found that atmospheric brown clouds enhanced lower atmospheric solar heating by about 50 per cent. Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends. We propose that the combined warming trend of 0.25 K per decade may be sufficient to account for the observed retreat of the Himalayan glaciers.     

Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Climate change in the 21st century over China is simulated using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3). The model is one-way nested within the global model CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires (Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies/Frontier Research Center for Global Change/Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). A 150-year (1951-2100) transient simulation is conducted at 25 km grid spacing, under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B scenario. Simulations of present climate conditions in China by RegCM3 are compared against observations to assess model performance. Results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed spatial structure of surface air temperature and precipitation well. Changes in mean temperature and precipitation in December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA) during the middle and end of the 21st century are analyzed. Significant future warming is simulated by RegCM3. This warming becomes greater with time, and increased warming is simulated at high latitude and high altitude (Tibetan Plateau) areas. In the middle of the 21st century in DJF, a general increase of precipitation is found in most areas, except over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation changes in JJA show an increase over northwest China and a decrease over the Tibetan Plateau. There is a mixture of positive and negative changes in eastern China. The change pattern at the end of the century is generally consistent with that in mid century, except in some small areas, and the magnitude of change is usually larger. In addition, the simulation is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 driven by a different global model, to address uncertainties of the projected climate change in China.     

Acclimatization of soil respiration to warming in a tall grass prairie.

The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a 1.4-5.8 degrees C average increase in the global surface temperature over the period 1990 to 2100 (ref. 1). These estimates of future warming are greater than earlier projections, which is partly due to incorporation of a positive feedback. This feedback results from further release of greenhouse gases from terrestrial ecosystems in response to climatic warming. The feedback mechanism is usually based on the assumption that observed sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature under current climate conditions would hold in a warmer climate. However, this assumption has not been carefully examined. We have therefore conducted an experiment in a tall grass prairie ecosystem in the US Great Plains to study the response of soil respiration (the sum of root and heterotrophic respiration) to artificial warming of about 2 degrees C. Our observations indicate that the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration decreases--or acclimatizes--under warming and that the acclimatization is greater at high temperatures. This acclimatization of soil respiration to warming may therefore weaken the positive feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate.     

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.