“海上丝绸之路”主要海域热带气旋时空分布特征及其危险性

热带气旋作为一种海上灾害性天气,对“海上丝绸之路”海上航运影响重大。本文基于西北太平洋和北印度洋1990—2017年的热带气旋路径数据,结合热带气旋风场参数模型,利用缓冲区分析、叠加分析等GIS空间分析技术,系统研究了“海上丝绸之路”主要海域、主要海区、关键通道受热带气旋影响频次以及热带气旋危险性的时空分布特征。主要结论：① “海上丝绸之路”主要海域受热带气旋影响严重,表现在热带气旋影响范围广、影响频次高,其中西北太平洋较北印度洋受热带气旋影响更为严重,危险性更大;② 西北太平洋的15°N—30°N,120°E-—145°E海域热带气旋危险性最高;③ 热带气旋危险性季节变化较为明显,秋夏两季危险性较高,冬春两季危险性较低,在夏秋两季各月份中,7、8、9、10月危险最高;④ 在各海区中,中国东部海区热带气旋危险最高,其次是南海、日本海、孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海,而红海和波斯湾不受热带气旋影响;在各关键通道中,吕宋海峡热带气旋危险性最高,其次是台湾海峡、对马海峡、宗谷海峡、鞑靼海峡、保克海峡、霍尔木兹海峡,而马六甲海峡和曼德海峡无热带气旋危险。     

西北太平洋柔鱼资源与海洋环境的GIS空间分析

本文根据1995～2001年的西北太平洋地区(35°N～45°N,140°E～170°W)巴特柔鱼资源调查与生产的实际情况对柔鱼渔获量进行了研究,并利用同期遥感反演的海洋表层温度数据(SST)和近表层叶绿素a数据(Chlorophylla),拓展了GIS的空间分析功能,定量地研究了我国远洋柔鱼产量与水温、叶绿素等海洋要素场之间的关系,揭示西北太平洋柔鱼中心渔场的环境特征,以期为我国西北太平洋海区的鱿鱼生产服务。     

什么是热带风暴?

2006年第4号热带风暴“碧利斯”引发的浙江、福建、江西、湖南、广东、广西6省区洪涝灾害,已死亡612人,失踪208人,刚刚遭受严重损失的灾区又迎来了第5号热带风暴“格美”,因此热带风暴也成了人们关注的焦点。热带风暴也叫热带气旋,是台风的一种,是最具破坏力的自然灾害。各地对台风的称呼和强弱划分各不相同,比如发生在北太平洋西部和南海的习惯上称为台风;发生在北太平洋东部和大西洋的,风力在12级以上的称为飓风,风力在8~11级的称为热带风暴;发生在孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海风力8级以上称为气旋性风暴。气象学上,台风专指北太平洋西部(国际日期…     

金寨震群序列特征参数一致性研究

利用Snoke方法和CAP方法反演2014-08~2015-03间14次M_L≥3.0地震的震源机制解,分析震源参数的时空变化特征;同时使用PTD初至震相方法计算14次地震的震源深度,并与CAP深度搜索法的结果进行对比。结果表明,金寨震群序列密集分布在115.50°~115.53°N、31.50°~31.53°E范围内,在时间和空间上均无明显的发震规律;14次M_L≥3.0地震的震源机制解基本一致,P轴方位角与倾角较为一致,为近NS向水平拉张和近EW向水平挤压作用下的走滑型地震;2种方法计算获得的震源深度结果相近,集中在2~5 km。     

水温变动对2009年西北太平洋柔鱼产量下降的影响

分布在西北太平洋的柔鱼是我国远洋鱿钓渔业的重要捕捞对象,近些年来其产量一直处在稳定的水平。然而,2009年8～10月旺汛期间在传统作业渔场(150°E～165°E、38°E～46°E)柔鱼产量出现大幅度下降,其日产量仅为正常年份的一半。为此,根据2007～2009年8～10月我国在西北太平洋鱿钓生产数据,以及产卵场表层水温,探讨2009年柔鱼产量下降及渔场变动的原因。研究表明,其产量出现下降的原因可能有2个:(1)柔鱼产卵场(20°N～30°N,130°E～170°E)黑潮大弯曲的发生,使得21℃等温线向南偏移,使得柔鱼资源补充量受到影响,从而使得渔汛期间柔鱼产量的下降;(2)旺汛期间(8～9月)传统作业渔场(42°N～46°N,150°E～165°E)的100m水层有一个明显冷水南下,分布位置为154°E～156°E,将传统作业渔场(150E～165°E)一分为二,向南的前锋(水温低于5℃)到达42°N,明显不同于正常年份,使得作业渔场的范围明显缩小,不适合柔鱼的集群,导致产量出现大幅下降。     

大尺度环流系统对西北太平洋变性TC频数影响的气候诊断分析

基于中国热带气旋年鉴资料,从气候学角度出发,对西北太平洋TC(热带气旋)发生温带变性的频数与大尺度环流系统间的关系进行了诊断和分析.研究发现变性TC多发生于夏、秋两季,通过对NCEP月平均再分析资料的500hPa高度场进行EOF分解,发现西北太平洋TC变性的频数与65°N附近强冷高压系统在夏、秋两季都存在着正相关关系,且相关性在秋季高于夏季;与30°N附近强副热带高压系统存在负相关关系,夏季副热带高压系统的作用更大;与30°N以南西北太平洋多台风活动区域的弱低压存在显著的负相关,低压越弱,对流越弱,则TC的生成数越少,其中发生变性的TC数也会减少.500hPa高度场EOF分解的第一特征向量所对应的时间函数分布在20世纪70年代中期前后出现了反号,较好地对应了变性TC年频数的年际变化趋势,70年代中期之前变性TC呈总体偏多,之后变性TC的频数总体偏少,呈明显下降趋势.     

安徽省旅游发展空间错位的模型分析

旅游资源与旅游区位的地域差异是客观存在的,对区域旅游发展空间错位及其原因的分析可为促进区域旅游均衡发展提供科学依据。本文以安徽省16个地级市为研究单元,运用重力模型和二维组合矩阵,选取旅游收入、资源丰度和旅游区位作为评价指标,定量分析旅游发展空间错位关系,并利用ArcGIS软件将结果进行可视化表达。研究发现:安徽省旅游收入、资源丰度和旅游区位的重心分别处于(117.63°E,31.18°N)、(117.51°E,31.12°N)和(117.20°E,32.00°N),经度方向最大错位0.43°,最小0.12°,纬度方向最大错位0.88°,最小0.06°;与区域几何中心相比,旅游收入重心和资源丰度重心均向南偏移;从旅游收入-资源丰度、旅游收入-旅游区位的组合矩阵来看,呈错位和同步发展的城市均为8个。整体而言,安徽省旅游空间错位主要是因旅游区位和旅游资源的条件差异,四大旅游板块要结合自身的特点,发挥优势,挖掘潜力,通过采取不同的空间矫正策略达到区域旅游协同发展的目的。     

甘东南及邻近地区地震目录的聚类分析

利用2013-01-01~2021-11-01期间甘肃甘东南及邻近地区（32°~36°N,102°~106°E）地震目录中的11 659次地震震中位置数据,使用硬聚类方法中的K-means和软聚类方法高斯混合模型GMM聚类方法对地震原始目录以及地震精定位目录的空间位置进行聚类分析。为确定最佳聚类数,使用AIC和BIC模型选择法,最终将原始目录和精定位目录分别聚类成6个和14个地震群。结果显示,精定位地震目录和GMM聚类方法结合可以更好地从地震大数据中找到具有不同空间分布特征的地震群。     

寻乌及邻区震源机制和视应力特征

利用寻乌及邻区2009年以来的地震波形资料,采用Snoke方法反演19次ML2.5以上地震的震源机制,计算89次ML1.5以上地震的视应力。结果显示,寻乌及邻区的走滑型地震占绝对优势,震源机制解P轴优势方向分布在310°~320°和110°~130°之间,倾角绝大多数在40°以内,与该区以NWW-SEE向水平挤压为特征的构造应力场吻合;寻乌震群集中区内8次ML2.5以上地震的震源机制结果一致性较好。寻乌及邻区视应力与震级呈正相关,2017-11-06寻乌ML3.8震群前的差视应力值出现高值波动。     

海南及邻区现今地壳三维运动特征及地球动力学环境分析

利用海南及邻区1999年以来GNSS资料及1970年以来水准数据获取三维运动速度场，分析地壳运动特征，结合东南亚水平运动背景场分析周缘板块对海南地块及华南地块陆缘速度场的影响。结果表明，海南岛三维运动以白沙断裂为界，岛北部以海口-屯昌为界。华南地块各观测点E向运动速率自西向东逐渐减小，至陆缘区域速率最小，各观测站间运动速率差异性小；S向运动速率自西向东逐渐增大；位于23°～26°N区域观测点的速度场与其南北两侧存在差异。华南地块运动受印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞和挤压影响，陆缘地带还受太平洋板块、菲律宾海板块活动及南海扩张运动影响，澳大利亚板块对区域运动影响较小。     

Does the Asian monsoon modulate tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea?

To investigate whether the Asian monsoon influences tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the South China Sea (SCS), TCs (including tropical storms and typhoons) over the SCS are analyzed using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center dataset from 1945 to 2009. Results show an increasing trend in the frequencies of TC-all (all TCs over the SCS) and TY-all (all typhoons over the SCS), due mainly to an increase in the number of TCs moving into the SCS after development elsewhere. Little change is seen in the number of TCs that form in the SCS. The results of wavelet analysis indicate that the frequency of typhoons (TY) shows a similar oscillation as that of TCs, i.e., a dominant periodicity of 8-16 years around the 1970s for all TC activity, except for TC-mov (TCs that moved into the SCS from the western North Pacific). To examine the relationship between typhoon activity and the summer monsoon, a correlation analysis was performed that considered typhoons, TCs, and five monsoon indexes. The analysis reveals statistically significant negative correlation between the strength of the Southwest Asian summer monsoon and typhoon activity over the SCS, which likely reflects the effect of the monsoon on TC formation in the western North Pacific (WNP) and subsequent movement into the SCS. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between TY-loc (typhoons that developed from TCs formed over the SCS) and the South China Sea summer monsoon and Southeast Asian summer monsoon.     

Analysis of the anomalous strength and location of the ITCZ affecting the formation of northern Pacific typhoons

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1959-2004, the location and strength of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Con-vergence Zone), as well as their relations with typhoons in the northwestern Pacific were studied. It was found that the pentad loca-tion and strength of the ITCZ had close relations with the typhoon frequency. Higher latitude location or strengthened ITCZ were found to be favorable for the occurrence of typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific. An index was defined for ascertaining the loca-tion of the ITCZ. It was found that the index defined with the maximum value ofpentad and monthly meridional shear of zonal wind speed could better describe the location of ITCZ than another index defined with the maximum value of convergence. Correlation analysis between the index of ITCZ and the maximum cloud cover in the tropics showed that there were close relations between the ITCZ determined by the index and the maximum tropical cloud belt. The strength index of an ITCZ was defined as the zonal wind speed difference at latitudes south and north of the ITCZ. It was found that there are close relations between the ITCZ intensity and typhoon occurrence in the South China Sea [10°N-20°N, 100°E-120°E] and regions east of the Philippines and near the Mariana Islands [5°N-20°N, 127.5°E-150°E].     

Super typhoon activity over the western North Pacific and its relationship with ENSO

This paper analyzes the characteristics of super typhoons(STYs)over the western North Pacific(WNP)from 1965 to2005 and describes the seasonal variability of STY activity.The relation between STY activity and the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)as well as the possible reason for the influence of the ENSO on STY activity are also investigated.The results showed thatabout one fifth of the tropical cyclones(TCs)over the WNP could reach the rank of STY.Most STYs appeared from July to Novem-ber while there was a highest ratio between number of STYs and total number of TCs in November.Most STYs appeared east of thePhilippine Sea.In El Nio years,affected by sea surface temperature(SST),monsoon trough and weak vertical wind shear,TC for-mation locations shifted eastward and there were more STYs than in La Nia years when the affecting factors changed.     

Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast.A technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard was developed based on the empirical track model,and used to generate 1 000-year virtual typhoons for Northwest Pacific basin.The influences of typhoon decay model,track model,and the extreme value distribution on the predicted extreme wind speed were investigated.We found that different typhoon decay models have least influence on the predicted extreme wind speed.Over most of the southeast coast of China,the predicted wind speed by the nonsimplified empirical track model is larger than that from the simplified tracking model.The extreme wind speed predicted by different extreme value distribution is quite different.Four super typhoons Meranti(2016),Hato(2017),Mangkhut(2018),and Lekima(2019) were selected and the return periods of typhoon wind speeds along the China southeast coast were estimated in order to assess the typhoon wind hazard.     

Response of upper ocean currents to typhoons at two ADCP moorings west of the Luzon Strait

We deployed two ADCP mooring systems west of the Luzon Strait in August 2008, and measured the upper ocean currents at high frequency. Two typhoons passed over the moorings during approximately one-month observation period. Using ADCP observations, satellite wind and heat flux measurements, and high-resolution model assimilation products, we studied the response of the upper ocean to typhoons. The first typhoon, Nuri, passed over one of the moorings, resulting in strong Ekman divergence and significant surface cooling. The cooling of surface water lagged the typhoon wind forcing about one day and lasted about five days. The second typhoon, Sinlaku, moved northward east of the Luzon Strait, and did not directly impact currents near the observation regions. Sinlaku increased anomalous surface water transport exchange across the Luzon Strait, which modulated the surface layer current of the Kuroshio.     

The Change Features of the West Boundary Bifurcation Line of the North Equatorial Current in the Pacific

The equatorial Current in the North Pacific(NEC) is an upper layer westward ocean current, which flows to the west boundary of the ocean, east of the Philippines, and bifurcates into the northerly Kuroshio and the main body of the southerly Mindanao current. Thus, NEC is both the south branch of the Subtropical Circulation and the north branch of the Tropical Circulation. The junction of the two branches extends to the west boundary to connect the bifurcation points forming the bifurcation line. The position of the North Pacific Equatorial Current bifurcation line of the surface determines the exchange between and the distribution of subtropical and tropical circulations, thus affecting the local or global climate. A new identification method to track the line and the bifurcation channel was used in this study, focusing on the climatological characteristics of the western boundary of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation line. The long-term average NEC west boundary bifurcation line shifts northwards with depth. In terms of seasonal variation, the average position of the western boundary of the bifurcation line is southernmost in June and northernmost in December, while in terms of interannual variation, from spring to winter in the years when ENSO is developing, the position of the west boundary bifurcation line of NEC is relatively to the north(south) in EI Ni?o(La Ni?a) years as compared to normal years.     

Variability of tropical cyclone in high frequent occurrence regions over the western North Pacific

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.     

Strengthening effect of super typhoon Rammasun(2014) on upwelling and cold eddies in the South China Sea

Typhoon is one of the frequent natural disasters in coastal regions of China.As shown in many studies,the impact of typhoons on the South China Sea(SCS) should not be overlooked.Super typhoon Rammasun(2014) was studied that formed in the northwestern Pacific,passed through the SCS,then landed in the Leizhou Peninsula.Remote sensing data and model products were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of the cold eddies,upwelling,sea surface temperature,mixed layer depth,rainfall,sea surface salinity,suspended sediment concentration,and surface-level anomaly.Results confirm the constant presence of upwelling and cold eddies in the southeast of Hainan(north of the Zhongsha Islands) and the southeast of Vietnam in July.In addition,we found the strengthening effect of super typhoon Rammasun on the upwelling and cold eddies in the SCS.The major reasons for the continuous decrease in sea surface temperature and the slow regaining of seawater temperature were the enhanced upwelling and vertical mixing caused by the typhoon.The increasing of the surface runoff in the Indochina Peninsula was mainly affected by the typhoon,with some contribution for the southeast of Vietnam's cold eddy and upwelling.     

夏季亚洲季风区典型旱涝年大气热源（汇）的变化特征

使用2001年和2003年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算夏季亚洲季风区大气热源（汇）,再用BUTTER-WORTH带通滤波器对原始热源（汇）场进行带通滤波,得到2001与2003年夏季30-60天的大气热源（汇）的低频分量,然后分析两年夏季东亚各区域大气热源（汇）及其低频变化特征、传播特征和传播差异,得出以下结论：（1）2001年呈连续带状分布;2003年热源中心分布零散且位置显著东移,热源（汇）强度比2001年减弱;（2）2001年和2003年低频分量的平均分布有明显差异,且旱年低频分量强度远大于涝年;（3）2001年低频振荡向北传播范围仅到20°N-30°N的华南至江南地区,而2003年低频振荡多数可达30°N以北的江淮流域;（4）2001年低频分量纬向传播均为自西向东,而2003年在6-8月期间自东向西传播,5月和9月则主要由西向东传播。因此,江淮流域典型旱涝年分2001年和2003年在低频分量的配置和低频波的传播上存在明显差异,这可能正是导致这两年气候巨大差异的原因之一。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE MINDANAO EDDY AND TROPICAL CURRENTS OF PACIFIC OCEAN

Results of numerical simulation of currents in the western North Tropical Pacific Ocean by using a barotropic primitive equation model with fine horizontal resolution agreed well with observations and showed that the Mindanao Cyclonic Eddy located north of the equator and east of Mindanao Island exists during most of the year with monthly (and large seasonal) variations in scope . strength and central location . In June , an anticyclonic eddy occurs northeast of Halmahera Island, strengthens to maximum in August , exists until October and then disappears . The observed large-scale circulation systems such as the North Equatorial Current . the Mindanao Current and the North Equatorial Countercurrent are all very well reproduced in the simulations.