A simple assessment approach for winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress

In this study, an empirical assessment approach for the risk of crop loss due to water stress was developed and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. We combined statistical and remote sensing data on crop yields with climate data and cropland distribution to model the effect of water stress from 1982 to 2011. The average value of winter wheat loss due to water stress for the three European countries was about ?931 kg/ha, which was higher than that in China (?570 kg/ha) and the United States (?367 kg/ha). Our study has important implications for the operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or regional scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapotranspiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistical crop yield data and establishing more sophisticated zoning methods.     

统计数据总量约束下全局优化阈值的冬小麦分布制图

大范围、长时间和高精度农作物空间分布基础农业科学数据的准确获取对资源、环境、生态、气候变化和国家粮食安全等问题研究具有重要现实意义和科学意义。本文针对传统阈值法农作物识别过程中阈值设置存在灵巧性差和自动化程度低等弱点,以中国粮食主产区黄淮海平原内河北省衡水市景县为典型实验区,首次将全局优化算法应用于阈值模型中阈值优化选取,开展了利用全局优化算法改进基于阈值检测的农作物分布制图方法创新研究。以冬小麦为研究对象,国产高分一号(GF-1)为主要遥感数据源,在作物面积统计数据为总量控制参考标准和全局参数优化的复合型混合演化算法SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona)支持下,提出利用时序NDVI数据开展阈值模型阈值参数自动优化的冬小麦空间分布制图方法。最终,获得实验区冬小麦阈值模型最优参数,并利用优化后的阈值参数对冬小麦空间分布进行提取。通过地面验证表明,利用本研究所提方法获取的冬小麦识别结果分类精度均达到较高水平。其中冬小麦识别结果总量精度达到了99.99%,证明本研究所提阈值模型参数优化方法冬小麦提取分类结果总量控制效果良好;同时,与传统的阈值法、最大似然和支持向量机等分类方法相比,本研究所提阈值模型参数优化法区域冬小麦作物分类总体精度和Kappa系数分别都有所提高,其中,总体精度分别提高4.55%、2.43%和0.15%,Kappa系数分别提高0.12、0.06和0.01,这体现出SCE-UA全局优化算法对提高阈值模型冬小麦空间分布识别精度具有一定优势。以上研究结果证明了利用本研究所提基于作物面积统计数据总量控制以及SCE-UA全局优化算法支持下阈值模型参数优化作物分布制图方法的有效性和可行性,可获得高精度冬小麦作物空间分布制图结果,这对提高中国冬小麦空间分布制图精度和自动化水平具有一定意义,也可为农作物面积农业统计数据降尺度恢复重建和大范围区域作物空间分布制图研究提供一定技术参考。     

Models for wheat yield prediction using remotely sensed canopy temperature based indices

Canopy temperature in differentially irrigated and fertilized wheat plots were collected by hand held infrared thermometer from seedling emergence to maturity for two growing seasons (1981–82 and 1982–83). Canopy temperature indices like stress degree day (SDD) and crop water stress index (CWSI) based four-parameter (crop growth stage partitioned) and two-parameter (Non-partitioned) yield models suitable for remote sensing application were developed and tested with observed yield data. From statistical analysis of the models it was concluded that crop growth stage partitioned CWSI or SDD yield model was better than non-partitioned SDD models for predicting wheat grain as well as biological yields.     

Full year crop monitoring and separability assessment with fully-polarimetric L-band UAVSAR: A case study in the Sacramento Valley,California

Spatial and temporal information on plant and soil conditions is needed urgently for monitoring of crop productivity. Remote sensing has been considered as an effective means for crop growth monitoring due to its timely updating and complete coverage. In this paper, we explored the potential of L-band fully-polarimetric Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) data for crop monitoring and classification. The study site was located in the Sacramento Valley, in California where the cropping system is relatively diverse. Full season polarimetric signatures, as well as scattering mechanisms, for several crops, including almond, walnut, alfalfa, winter wheat, corn, sunflower, and tomato, were analyzed with linear polarizations (HH, HV, and VV) and polarimetric decomposition (Cloude–Pottier and Freeman–Durden) parameters, respectively. The separability amongst crop types was assessed across a full calendar year based on both linear polarizations and decomposition parameters. The unique structure-related polarimetric signature of each crop was provided by multitemporal UAVSAR data with a fine temporal resolution. Permanent tree crops (almond and walnut) and alfalfa demonstrated stable radar backscattering values across the growing season, whereas winter wheat and summer crops (corn, sunflower, and tomato) presented drastically different patterns, with rapid increase from the emergence stage to the peak biomass stage, followed by a significant decrease during the senescence stage. In general, the polarimetric signature was heterogeneous during June and October, while homogeneous during March-to-May and July-to-August. The scattering mechanisms depend heavily upon crop type and phenological stage. The primary scattering mechanism for tree crops was volume scattering (>40%), while surface scattering (>40%) dominated for alfalfa and winter wheat, although double-bounce scattering (>30%) was notable for alfalfa during March-to-September. Surface scattering was also dominant (>40%) for summer crops across the growing season except for sunflower and tomato during June and corn during July-to-October when volume scattering (>40%) was the primary scattering mechanism. Crops were better discriminated with decomposition parameters than with linear polarizations, and the greatest separability occurred during the peak biomass stage (July-August). All crop types were completely separable from the others when simultaneously using UAVSAR data spanning the whole growing season. The results demonstrate the feasibility of L-band SAR for crop monitoring and classification, without the need for optical data, and should serve as a guideline for future research.     

大面积小麦遥感估产模型的构建与调试方法的研究

本文重点研究大面积冬小麦遥感估产模型构建及其调试方法。通过分析冬小麦生长发育过程,对光、温、水、肥等必须条件需求规律研究的基础上,提出了以绿度指数、温度和绿度变化速率等因子,构建大面积冬小麦遥感估产模型。为了适应大面积遥感估产运行系统的需要,在变量获取及模型调试等方面进行了一些新的探索。     

陆面温度反演算法——劈窗算法的敏感度分析

首先给出ＣＯ２ 倍增下遥感光合作物产量的概念模型,之后分析未受ＣＯ２ 倍增的遥感光合作物产量估测模型;在考虑ＣＯ２ 倍增对作物产量的影响后,对影响干物质累积的作物光合速率的模型进行修正,进而修正遥感光合作物产量估测模型。建立ＣＯ２ 倍增下作物产量响应模型,求取各参数,并在ＣＯ２ 倍增下对我国华北地区冬小麦产量响应进行填图,表明模型的估测结果有良好的可比性。     

Evaluation of potential crop productivity based on remote sensing and agro-ecological zones around the world

Human diets strongly rely on wheat, maize, rice and soybean; research on the potential crop productivity of these four main crops could provide the basis for increasing global crop yields. The evaluation model of realistic potential crop productivity based on remote sensing and agro-ecological zones was proposed in this study to provide reliable reference data for world food security. The statistical data on these four main crops yields were obtained from the FAO. The model was used to investigate the potential production of four staple crops in the world. The distributions of the realistic potential productivity of four staple crops (winter wheat, maize, rice and soybean) were produced. In the main producing countries of the four staple crops, statistical analysis was conducted on the realistic potential productivity (RPP) of the four staple crops, the highest productivity (HP) during the period 1983–2011 and the gap between RPP and HP.     

Crop discrimination in Northern China with double cropping systems using Fourier analysis of time-series MODIS data

Crop identification is the basis of crop monitoring using remote sensing. Remote sensing the extent and distribution of individual crop types has proven useful to a wide range of users, including policy-makers, farmers, and scientists. Northern China is not merely the political, economic, and cultural centre of China, but also an important base for grain production. Its main grains are wheat, maize, and cotton. By employing the Fourier analysis method, we studied crop planting patterns in the Northern China plain. Then, using time-series EOS-MODIS NDVI data, we extracted the key parameters to discriminate crop types. The results showed that the estimated area and the statistics were correlated well at the county-level. Furthermore, there was little difference between the crop area estimated by the MODIS data and the statistics at province-level. Our study shows that the method we designed is promising for use in regional spatial scale crop mapping in Northern China using the MODIS NDVI time-series.     

EXTRAPOLATION IN TIME OF REFERENCE DATA ON THE CONDITION OF NATURAL FEATURES: THE EXAMPLE OF WINTER WHEAT

The author outlines a method for extrapolating reference spectral data describing the condition of certain crops obtained for a particular point in time to periods for which reliable remote sensing data are not available. Examination of the correspondence between crop “condition classes,” identified through visual interpretation of aerial imagery, and actual yields/biomass for a number of phases of crop development of winter wheat for several crop years provides basic information for a probability matrix of the condition of a crop at times B, C, and D based on previous conditions at times A, B, and C. Translated from: Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, geografiya, 1988, No. 4, pp. 73-79.     

小麦单产的遥感—气象综合模式研究

本文以北京顺义县为例,以气象因子与垂直植被指数(PVI)作为参数,用灰色模型G(0,2)和逐段订正模型即阶乘模型,建立冬小表遥感信息-气象因子综合模型。计算结果表明,改进后的综合模型其平均精度比单纯的遥感信息模型提高近7％,个别年份达到10％以上。     

Monitoring canopy growth and grain yield of paddy rice in South Korea by using the GRAMI model and high spatial resolution imagery

Monitoring crop conditions and forecasting crop yields are both important for assessing crop production and for determining appropriate agricultural management practices; however, remote sensing is limited by the resolution, timing, and coverage of satellite images, and crop modeling is limited in its application at regional scales. To resolve these issues, the Gramineae (GRAMI)-rice model, which utilizes remote sensing data, was used in an effort to combine the complementary techniques of remote sensing and crop modeling. The model was then investigated for its capability to monitor canopy growth and estimate the grain yield of rice (Oryza sativa), at both the field and the regional scales, by using remote sensing images with high spatial resolution. The field scale investigation was performed using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images, and the regional-scale investigation was performed using RapidEye satellite images. Simulated grain yields at the field scale were not significantly different (p = 0.45, p = 0.27, and p = 0.52) from the corresponding measured grain yields according to paired t-tests (α = 0.05). The model’s projections of grain yield at the regional scale represented the spatial grain yield variation of the corresponding field conditions to within ±1 standard deviation. Therefore, based on mapping the growth and grain yield of rice at both field and regional scales of interest within coverages of a UAV or the RapidEye satellite, our results demonstrate the applicability of the GRAMI-rice model to the monitoring and prediction of rice growth and grain yield at different spatial scales. In addition, the GRAMI-rice model is capable of reproducing seasonal variations in rice growth and grain yield at different spatial scales.     

Quantifying winter wheat residue biomass with a spectral angle index derived from China Environmental Satellite data

Quantification of crop residue biomass on cultivated lands is essential for studies of carbon cycling of agroecosystems, soil-atmospheric carbon exchange and Earth systems modeling. Previous studies focus on estimating crop residue cover (CRC) while limited research exists on quantifying crop residue biomass. This study takes advantage of the high temporal resolution of the China Environmental Satellite (HJ-1) data and utilizes the band configuration features of HJ-1B data to establish spectral angle indices to estimate crop residue biomass. Angles formed at the NIR_IRS vertex by the three vertices at R, NIR_IRS, and SWIR (ANIR_IRS) of HJ-1B can effectively indicate winter wheat residue biomass. A coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.811 was obtained between measured winter wheat residue biomass and ANIR_IRS derived from simulated HJ-1B reflectance data. The ability of ANIR_IRS for quantifying winter wheat residue biomass using HJ-1B satellite data was also validated and evaluated. Results indicate that ANIR_IRS performed well in estimating winter wheat residue biomass with different residue treatments; the root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and estimated residue biomass was 0.038 kg/m². ANIR_IRS is a potential method for quantifying winter wheat residue biomass at a large scale due to wide swath width (350 km) and four-day revisit rate of the HJ-1 satellite. While ANIR_IRS can adequately estimate winter wheat residue biomass at different residue moisture conditions, the feasibility of ANIR_IRS for winter wheat residue biomass estimation at different fractional coverage of green vegetation and different environmental conditions (soil type, soil moisture content, and crop residue type) needs to be further explored.     

Multi-Data Approach for remote sensing-based regional crop rotation mapping: A case study for the Rur catchment,Germany

Spatial land use information is one of the key input parameters for regional agro-ecosystem modeling. Furthermore, to assess the crop-specific management in a spatio-temporal context accurately, parcel-related crop rotation information is additionally needed. Such data is scarcely available for a regional scale, so that only modeled crop rotations can be incorporated instead. However, the spectrum of the occurring multiannual land use patterns on arable land remains unknown. Thus, this contribution focuses on the mapping of the actually practiced crop rotations in the Rur catchment, located in the western part of Germany. We addressed this by combining multitemporal multispectral remote sensing data, ancillary information and expert-knowledge on crop phenology in a GIS-based Multi-Data Approach (MDA). At first, a methodology for the enhanced differentiation of the major crop types on an annual basis was developed. Key aspects are (i) the usage of physical block data to separate arable land from other land use types, (ii) the classification of remote sensing scenes of specific time periods, which are most favorable for the differentiation of certain crop types, and (iii) the combination of the multitemporal classification results in a sequential analysis strategy. Annual crop maps of eight consecutive years (2008–2015) were combined to a crop sequence dataset to have a profound data basis for the mapping of crop rotations. In most years, the remote sensing data basis was highly fragmented. Nevertheless, our method enabled satisfying crop mapping results. As an example for the annual crop mapping workflow, the procedure and the result of 2015 are illustrated. For the generation of the crop sequence dataset, the eight annual crop maps were geometrically smoothened and integrated into a single vector data layer. The resulting dataset informs about the occurring crop sequence for individual areas on arable land, so that crop rotation schemes can be derived. The resulting dataset reveals that the spectrum of the practiced crop rotations is extremely heterogeneous and contains a large amount of crop sequences, which strongly diverge from model crop rotations. Consequently, the integration of remote sensing-based crop rotation data can considerably reduce uncertainties regarding the management in regional agro-ecosystem modeling. Finally, the developed methods and the results are discussed in detail.     

Yield estimation using SPOT-VEGETATION products: A case study of wheat in European countries

In the period 1999–2009 ten-day SPOT-VEGETATION products of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) at 1 km spatial resolution were used in order to estimate and forecast the wheat yield over Europe. The products were used together with official wheat yield statistics to fine-tune a statistical model for each NUTS2 region, based on the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) method. This method has been chosen to construct the model in the presence of many correlated predictor variables (10-day values of remote sensing indicators) and a limited number of wheat yield observations. The model was run in two different modalities: the “monitoring mode”, which allows for an overall yield assessment at the end of the growing season, and the “forecasting mode”, which provides early and timely yield estimates when the growing season is on-going. Performances of yield estimation at the regional and national level were evaluated using a cross-validation technique against yield statistics and the estimations were compared with those of a reference crop growth model. Models based on either NDVI or FAPAR normalized indicators achieved similar results with a minimal advantage of the model based on the FAPAR product. Best modelling results were obtained for the countries in Central Europe (Poland, North-Eastern Germany) and also Great Britain. By contrast, poor model performances characterize countries as follows: Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Romania and Hungary. Country level yield estimates using the PLSR model in the monitoring mode, and those of a reference crop growth model that do not make use of remote sensing information showed comparable accuracies. The largest estimation errors were observed in Portugal, Spain and Finland for both approaches. This convergence may indicate poor reliability of the official yield statistics in these countries.     

利用双变量同化与PCA-Copula法的冬小麦单产估测

为了进一步提高冬小麦产量估测的精度,基于集合卡尔曼滤波算法和粒子滤波（particle filter, PF）算法,对CERES–Wheat模型模拟的冬小麦主要生育期条件植被温度指数（vegetation temperature condition index,VTCI）、叶面积指数（leaf area index, LAI）和中分辨率成像光谱仪（moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, MODIS）数据反演的VTCI、LAI进行同化,利用主成分分析与Copula函数结合的方法构建单变量和双变量的综合长势监测指标,建立冬小麦单产估测模型,并通过对比分析选择最优模型,对2017—2020年关中平原的冬小麦单产进行估测。结果表明,单点尺度的同化VTCI、同化LAI均能综合反映MODIS观测值和模型模拟值的变化特征,且PF算法具有更好的同化效果;区域尺度下利用PF算法得到的同化VTCI和LAI所构建的双变量估产模型精度最高,与未同化VTCI和LAI构建的估产模型精度相比,研究区各县（区）的冬小麦估测单产与实际单产的均方根误差降低了56.25 kg/hm2,平均相对误差降低了1.51%,表明该模型能有效提高产量估测的精度,应用该模型进行大范围的冬小麦产量估测具有较好的适用性。     

Phenological metrics-based crop classification using HJ-1 CCD images and Landsat 8 imagery

Crop type data are an important piece of information for many applications in agriculture. Extracting crop type using remote sensing is not easy because multiple crops are usually planted into small parcels with limited availability of satellite images due to weather conditions. In this research, we aim at producing crop maps for areas with abundant rainfall and small-sized parcels by making full use of Landsat 8 and HJ-1 charge-coupled device (CCD) data. We masked out non-vegetation areas by using Landsat 8 images and then extracted a crop map from a long-term time-series of HJ-1 CCD satellite images acquired at 30-m spatial resolution and two-day temporal resolution. To increase accuracy, four key phenological metrics of crops were extracted from time-series Normalized Difference Vegetation Index curves plotted from the HJ-1 CCD images. These phenological metrics were used to further identify each of the crop types with less, but easier to access, ancillary field survey data. We used crop area data from the Jingzhou statistical yearbook and 5.8-m spatial resolution ZY-3 satellite images to perform an accuracy assessment. The results show that our classification accuracy was 92% when compared with the highly accurate but limited ZY-3 images and matched up to 80% to the statistical crop areas.     

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue,France

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002–2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.     

Quad and compact multitemporal C-band PolSAR observations for crop characterization and monitoring

Monitoring crop condition using optical satellite indices has a legacy of several decades. Early warning of variances in crop production is vital in mitigating regional and global food insecurity. Adoption of optical vegetation indices for this purpose is widespread, yet cloud cover impedes the acquisition of these data. Although early research using scatterometers and aircraft hinted at the sensitivity of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) responses to crop development, the implementation of satellite SAR observations in operational crop condition monitoring is limited. In the research presented here, volume-to-surface (V/S) scattering ratios derived from C-band RADARSAT-2 quad and simulated compact polarimetric (QP and CP) imagery are assessed for their potential to monitor crop growth. Both V/S ratios were strongly correlated with optical vegetation indices, including the widely adopted Normalized Difference and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Indices. The changes in the ratio of volume to surface scattering were correlated with variations in crop biomass. The results support the potential of a SAR scattering ratio for crop condition monitoring. In particular, encouraging results were reported for compact polarimetry, a mode that can be implemented to deliver broader swath coverage conducive to regional and national monitoring.     

Optimization of spectral indices and long-term separability analysis for classification of cereal crops using multi-spectral RapidEye imagery

Crop monitoring using remotely sensed image data provides valuable input for a large variety of applications in environmental and agricultural research. However, method development for discrimination between spectrally highly similar crop species remains a challenge in remote sensing. Calculation of vegetation indices is a frequently applied option to amplify the most distinctive parts of a spectrum. Since no vegetation index exist, that is universally best-performing, a method is presented that finds an index that is optimized for the classification of a specific satellite data set to separate two cereal crop types. The η² (eta-squared) measure of association – presented as novel spectral separability indicator – was used for the evaluation of the numerous tested indices. The approach is first applied on a RapidEye satellite image for the separation of winter wheat and winter barley in a Central German test site. The determined optimized index allows a more accurate classification (97%) than several well-established vegetation indices like NDVI and EVI (<87%). Furthermore, the approach was applied on a RapidEye multi-spectral image time series covering the years 2010–2014. The optimized index for the spectral separation of winter barley and winter wheat for each acquisition date was calculated and its ability to distinct the two classes was assessed. The results indicate that the calculated optimized indices perform better than the standard indices for most seasonal parts of the time series. The red edge spectral region proved to be of high significance for crop classification. Additionally, a time frame of best spectral separability of wheat and barley could be detected in early to mid-summer.     

非监督分类的冬小麦种植信息提取模型

为了解决在区域冬小麦种植信息遥感提取过程中监督学习算法存在的需要地面样本数据支持、流程复杂、人为干扰因素多及自动化程度低等问题，本文以非监督分类为核心，结合多尺度技术，提出了一种新的非监督分类冬小麦种植信息提取模型。选取河北省辛集市为典型试验区，以2014年高分一号数据为数据源，对本文提出的模型进行实例验证。试验结果表明：该模型的Kappa系数为0.88，整体精度为94.00%；对于研究区内的冬小麦，在无需训练样本、人为干扰因素少等条件下，该模型具有与监督分类相似的提取精度，能够满足冬小麦种植信息地面遥感监测的需求。