Multiple linear regression models of urban runoff pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.     

东莞不同下垫面降雨径流污染输移规律研究

基于同沙水库集水区代表性功能区降雨径流水量、水质的监测,评价分析了东莞降雨径流污染输出过程、污染状况及初始冲刷效应等污染特征,根据径流污染负荷分配规律探讨了初期雨水截留参考标准,并应用主成分分析得出影响降雨径流污染负荷的主要因素.研究结果表明,同沙水库集水区降雨径流污染浓度值接近典型生活污水的浓度值,污染负荷较高,对同沙水库水质有严重的影响.降雨径流污染输出有较显著的时间特征且受降雨特征因素的影响,存在中等的初期冲刷效应.影响污染负荷的主因子是最大雨强、雨前干期长度、不透水率.采用FF40作为初期径流截留参考值,截留初期40%的径流比截留整场降雨径流更为经济、有效.     

Multiple linear regression models of urban runo pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-o pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runo coe cient. In this study, runo quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

Non-point source analysis of a railway bridge area using statistical method：Case study of a concrete road-bed

In an effort to protect the quality of the water system, interest in non-point source pollution is increasing. Recently, studies of non-point sources pollution are continuing in relation to various land- use areas, but such studies have not been fully conducted in railway facility sites. Using monitoring data of railway bridge area with concrete road-bed, the runoff characteristics, pollutant unit loads, and first flush criteria were assessed. Railway bridge area with concrete road-bed typically show the first flush effect, and the pollutant unit load was determined to be higher than other public facilities areas. Further, the first flush criteria show an effective rainfall amount of 7 mm. In other words, from the runoff of railway facilities, considerable amounts of non-point source pollutants are occurred, indicating the need to create best management practices which are adequate for railway facility sites.     

重庆市路面降雨径流特征及污染源解析

2010年雨季对重庆市3场降雨时段的地表径流进行采样监测,分析了重庆市路面降雨径流过程特征与降雨强度和降雨间隔时间对不同水质参数初始冲刷的影响,运用多元统计技术区分出路面径流的潜在污染源.结果表明,3场降雨径流的COD、TP和TN的次降雨平均浓度(EMC)分别为60.83～208.03、0.47～1.01和2.07～5.00 mg.L-1,超出了国家地表水环境质量V类标准,是主要污染物;3次降雨事件中,污染物浓度的峰值均提前或同步于径流量的峰值,并且污染物浓度的峰值多数出现在产流10 min内;重金属Zn、Cu、Pb和Cd浓度随降雨径流过程呈锯齿状变化;运用主成分分析区分出路面径流水质的2种潜在污染源:①机动车交通损耗和大气干湿沉降;②城市垃圾.     

基于信息相对重要性的主成分法优选环境测点

提出将单项污染物测值反映的信息量表示为相对重要性和将单项污染物的相对重要性综合为多项污染物的综合相对重要性的计算公式。根据测点信息的综合相对重要性,再用主成分子集合选择法优化选点。该方法不仅减少了计算量,也易于确定多项污染物的综合优化点。该方法用于贵阳市大气环境测点优选出的测点能反映该市的环境质量。      

Spatial and temporal variation of nitrogen exported by runo from sandy agricultural soils

The eutrophication problem has drawn attention to nutrient leaching from agricultural soils, and an understanding of spatial and temporal variability is needed to develop decision-making tools. Thus, eleven sites were selected to monitor, over a two-year period, spatial and temporal variation of runoff discharge and various forms of N in surface runoff in sandy agricultural soils. Factors influencing the variation of runoff discharge and various forms of N in surface runoff were analyzed. Variation of annual rainfall was small among 11 sites, especially between 2001 and 2002. However, variation of annual discharge was significant among the sites. The results suggest that rainfall patterns and land use had significant effect on discharge. The concentrations of total N, total kjeldahl N （TKN）, organic matter-associated N （OM-N）, NO3- -N, and NHn＋-N in the runoff ranged widely from 0.25 to 54.1, 0.15 to 20.3, 0.00 to 14.6, 0.00 to 45.3, and 0.00 to 19.7 mg/L, respectively. Spatial and temporal variations in the N concentration and runoff discharge were noted among the different sites. Annual loads of N in the runoff varied widely among monitoring sites and depend mainly on runoff discharge. High loads of total N, OM-N, NO3--N, and NHn＋-N in the runoff either in citrus groves or on vegetable farms occurred from June to October for each year, which coincided with the rainy season in the region. This study found that N in surface runoff was related to rainfall intensity, soil N level, and fertilizer use.     

高速公路路面雨水径流污染物排放特征研究

为了深入了解高速公路面源污染特征,本文对高速公路路面径流进行了监测分析.尽管径流过程中总悬浮物（TSS）、总化学需氧量（TCOD_Cr）、总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）的浓度以及颗粒物的丰度具有较大的变化幅度,但这些污染物的峰值浓度和颗粒物的峰值丰度基本上出现在径流开始后的10~30 min以内.TSS与TCOD_Cr、TN和TP的浓度之间存在着明显的相关性（r=0.444~0.955;p< 0.005）,意味着有相当数量的有机物和营养盐以颗粒物结合态存在.生化需氧量（BOD₅）与TCODcr的关系表明径流中的有机污染物可生化性较差.当降雨量和降雨强度在不同的范围变化时,其对径流污染物事件平均浓度的影响不同.绝大多数情况下,所研究的高速公路都会发生污染物的初期冲刷效应.前30%的径流可以携带46%±15%的TSS、54%±17%的TCOD_Cr、47%±13%的氮、52%±12%的磷以及在数量上占比为51%±12%的颗粒物.按照面源管理实践中80%的悬浮物的削减量的要求,应截留70%的径流,同时可以减少84%的有机物、78%的氮和81%的磷排放负荷.     

Pollutant loads of surface runo inWuhan City Zoo, an urban tourist area

The pollutant loads of surface runoff in an urban tourist area have been investigated for two years in the Wuhan City Zoo, China. Eight sampling sites, including two woodlands, three animal yards, two roofs and one road, were selected for sampling and study. The results indicate that pollutants ranked in a predictable order of decreasing load （e.g. animal yard〉roof〉woodland〉road）, with animal yards acting as the key pollution source in the zoo. Pollutants were transported mainly by particulate form in runoff. Particulate nitrogen and particulate phosphorous accounted on average for 61%, 78% of total pollutant, respectively, over 13 monitored rainfall events. These results indicate the treatment practices should be implemented to improve particulate nutrient removal. Analysis of the M（V） curve indicate that no first flush effect existed in the surface runoff from pervious areas （e.g. woodland, animal ground yard）, whereas a first flush effect was evident in runoff from impervious surfaces （e.g. animal cement yard, roof, road）.     

城市不同材料屋面径流的污染负荷特性

分析不同材料屋面径流污染负荷特性,对于提高城市面源污染负荷估算精度和确定初期径流截流比具有重要意义.以扬州市为研究区域,通过对小青瓦屋面、水泥瓦屋面和混凝土屋面这3种屋面进行降雨径流监测,比较不同材料屋面径流污染物浓度、冲刷规律以及初期冲刷效应.结果表明暴雨事件中,小青瓦屋面径流中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、高锰酸盐指数和总悬浮物(TSS)的事件平均浓度(event mean concentration,EMC)约为水泥瓦屋面的4～9倍;小青瓦屋面径流污染物浓度变化受雨强影响程度大于水泥瓦屋面,其中TP和TSS的浓度变化趋势和雨强变化趋势的Pearson相关系数r分别为0. 853和0. 822;各材料屋面的初期冲刷强度呈水泥瓦屋面混凝土屋面小青瓦屋面,分别截流3种屋面初期径流的31. 5%、58. 0%和60. 4%,可以完成削减60. 0%的屋面径流污染负荷量的目标.如果未具体区分瓦屋面材料,用水泥瓦屋面径流污染物的EMC估算古建筑聚集区的屋面污染负荷量,将严重低估暴雨事件中TN、TP、TSS和高锰酸盐指数的实际排放量,表明精细化区分屋面材料对提高城市面源负荷估算精度具有重要意义.     

低影响开发建筑小区雨水控制效果监测与评估

以某新建建筑小区为研究对象,通过构建低影响开发雨水排水系统,实现了雨水径流总量减排和峰值削减的多目标控制。采用同场次降雨对比分析的方法,在该小区6个排口（A~F）分别设置监测点,并选择下垫面类型组成相似的传统建筑小区排口（G）作为对比监测点。通过7场典型降雨监测数据的分析表明:与传统建筑小区相比,低影响开发建筑小区场次雨水径流外排总量削减率为12.1%~100%,场次雨水径流污染物（以SS计）总量削减率为69.6%~100%,峰值削减率为12.3%~100%。通过建立数学模型对典型年降雨数据进行了连续模拟,结果表明:低影响开发建筑小区平均径流外排总量削减率为77.3%,污染物总量削减率为66.4%。因此,监测和模拟结果均表明低影响开发雨水系统可有效控制雨水径流的外排总量和污染负荷。研究结果可为我国今后海绵型建筑小区建设提供技术支撑。     

2次降雨间隔时间对城市地表径流污染负荷的影响

2003～2005年通过对武汉市十里铺集水区12次降雨径流的水量和水质过程监测,研究了城市降雨径流污染负荷同2次降雨间隔时间的关系,探讨了城市地表状况、排水系统管理以及降雨特征在城市降雨径流污染负荷形成中的作用.结果表明,城市降雨径流污染负荷受2次降雨间隔时间和降雨径流量的共同影响.2次降雨间隔时间与初期降雨径流污染负荷存在显著的正相关关系 (p<0.01).汉阳地区城市地表卫生管理差和雨、污合流制的排水系统是城市径流污染负荷形成的主要原因.可以利用2次降雨间隔时间和降雨径流量预测城市降雨径流污染负荷.加强城市地表卫生管理和排水系统的管理,降低污染物在晴天累积的程度,从源头上减少污染物的数量,是有效控制城市降雨径流污染的首先途径.     

Pollutant concentrations and pollution loads in stormwater runoff from different land uses in Chongqing

To investigate the distribution of pollutant concentrations and pollution loads in stormwater runoff in Chongqing,six typical land use types were selected and studied from August 2009 to September 2011.Statistical analysis on the distribution of pollutant concentrations in all water samples shows that pollutant concentrations fluctuate greatly in rainfall-runoff,and the concentrations of the same pollutant also vary greatly in different rainfall events.In addition,it indicates that the event mean concentrations (EMCs) of total suspended solids (TSS) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) from urban traffic roads (UTR) are significantly higher than those from residential roads (RR),commercial areas (CA),concrete roofs (CR),tile roofs (TRoof),and campus catchment areas (CCA);and the EMCs of total phosphorus (TP) and NH3-N from UTR and CA are 2.35-5 and 3 times of the class-III standard values specified in the Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB 3838-2002).The EMCs of Fe,Pb and Cd are also much higher than the class-III standard values.The analysis of pollution load producing coefficients (PLPC) reveals that the main pollution source of TSS,COD and TP is UTR.The analysis of correlations between rainfall factors and EMCs/PLPC indicates that rainfall duration is correlated with EMCs/PLPC of TSS for TRoof and TP for UTR,while rainfall intensity is correlated with EMCs/PLPC of TP for both CR and CCA.The results of this study provide a reference for better management of non-point source pollution in urban regions.     

高速公路路面径流水质特性及排污规律

采用现场连续取样,在雨天某一时段对西安至临潼高速公路路面径流排水进行了监测.结果表明,高速公路路面排水具有较高的污染强度,污染物以SS和COD为主,且生物可降解性较差.水质参数SS、COD、总Pb、总Zn之间存在较好的线性相关关系.分析探讨了路面径流污染物排放规律及其对河流水质的影响.     

Monitoring of non-point source pollutants load from a mixed forest land use

The aim of this study was to determine the unit load of NPS (non-point source) pollutants including organic variables such as BOD (biochemical oxygen demand),COD (chemical oxygen demand) and DOC (dissolved organic carbon),nitrogen and phosphorus constituents,and suspended solids (SS) and their event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff flows from a water-shed of mixed forest land use by intensive field experiments.Field monitoring for continuous measurements of rainfall,flow,and water quality was conducted over 12 storm events during 2008–2009 using automated and manual sampling methods.The EMCs of individual runoff event were estimated for each water quality constituent based on the flow rate and concentration data of runoff discharge.The average EMCs of BOD,COD,DOC,SS,TN (total nitrogen),NH 4+ -N,NO 3- -N,TP (total phosphorus),PO 43- -P from the mixed forest land were 1.794,3.498,1.462,10.269,0.862,0.044,0.634,0.034,and 0.005 mg/L,respectively.The annual unit loads of BOD,COD,DOC,SS,TN,NH 4+ -N,NO 3- -N,TP and PO 43--P were estimated as 66.9,133.2,55.5,429.8,36.5,1.6,26.9,1.3 and 0.1 kg/(ha·yr),respectively.In addition,affecting parameters on the EMCs were investigated by statistic analysis of the field data.As a result,significant correlations with precipitation,rainfall intensity,and total runoff flows were found in most constituents.     

晋江流域污染负荷空间分布及关键源区识别

提出了利用水文和水质同步监测资料计算流域污染负荷空间分布的一般程序,并探讨了采用污染负荷贡献与集水区面积占比关系识别流域污染关键源区的方法,并在晋江流域进行了实例应用.结果表明:晋江下游取水口金鸡断面污染负荷主要来自东溪和西溪,枯水期CODMn、NH3-N和TP负荷分别是226.8、27.1和17.1g/s,占丰、平水期的18%~67%.丰、枯水期东溪和西溪对金鸡断面污染负荷贡献基本相当,而平水期西溪贡献显著大于东溪.晋江流域污染关键源区分别为蓬壶-长厅桥区间、长厅桥-港龙区间、横口-园美区间等5个断面区间,该关键源区识别方法不仅较好反映了污染物浓度和污染负荷在流域内的空间分布,同时还指出了主要污染物及敏感时期,可为后期的污染治理提供依据.本研究提出的污染负荷贡献计算程序以及关键源区识别方法具有较好的普适性,可为其他流域提供借鉴.     

我国大气环境标准体系的研究

针对我国大气环境管理的发展及实际情况,运用系统分析及目标规划的方法,设计了大气环境标准体系。大气标准体系包括基础标准、大气环境质量标准、排放标准、方法标准、样品标准、燃料使用标准、产品设备大气环保标准、环保行业大气环境保护标准。同时,在大气标准体系中将总量控制思想引入大气污染物排放标准的规定,提出按大气污染物的特征,分3种类型制定大气污染物排放标准等。     

一个实用的高速公路大气扩散模式

在高斯线源扩散模式的基础上，建立了一个适合高速公路大气污染源扩散特点的模式，并以沈阳环城高速公路环境影响评价中的应用为例，说明该模式的实用性和优越性．在建立该模式的过程中，应用了国外关于公路扩散试验的成果来确定和修正模式中的扩散参数．     

城市不同下垫面降雨径流多环芳烃（PAHs）分布及源解析

以上海市不透水下垫面降雨径流为研究对象,分析了交通道路、校园、小区路面和小区屋面径流样品中16种溶解相、颗粒相PAHs质量浓度和场次降雨事件平均浓度(EMC).研究了不同下垫面降雨径流PAHs冲刷过程.通过对不同样点降雨径流初始冲刷散点进行幂函数拟合,定量表征了降雨径流PAHs和悬浮颗粒物(TSS)的初始冲刷强度.对径流样品中PAHs来源进行了分析.结果表明,径流样品Σ16PAHs(包括溶解相和颗粒相)质量浓度变化范围为317.21~10364.32 ng·L-1,其中龙吴路Σ16PAHs质量浓度(均值)最大,而校园最小.污染物的EMC值在不同样点具有很大的差异.不同样点PAHs含量在径流过程中皆呈现出明显的衰减特征,并显示出不同程度的初始冲刷效应.运用因子分析方法解析PAHs来源发现,降雨径流PAHs来自化石燃料的不完全燃烧、石油泄漏、炼焦等,且各源的贡献率在不同下垫面降雨径流中有差异.