基于AHP的半干旱区泥石流易发性评价:以金沙江上游奔子栏—昌波河段为例

半干旱区具有植被稀少、松散堆积物源丰富的特征,为泥石流的形成提供了有利条件。以金沙江上游奔子栏—昌波河段为例,通过野外调查及遥感影像数据分析,研究了半干旱区的区域泥石流发育特征;选取地层岩性、断裂构造、斜坡坡度、流域相对高差、年平均降雨量和植被归一化指数等6项评价指标,利用GIS技术与AHP层次分析法相结合,建立半干旱区泥石流易发性评价模型,得到研究区泥石流易发性评价栅格图。对研究区进行小流域划分,以小流域为单元,进行区域统计分析并分类,制作基于流域单元的泥石流易发性分区图。分区结果表明:研究区泥石流高易发区和偏高易发区主要分布在金沙江沿岸的东北部、中部和西南部,面积约1 040.9 km2,占研究区总面积的35.7%。最后,构建检验曲线对泥石流易发性评价结果进行检验,高易发区和偏高易发区内实际发育的泥石流面积为651.4 km2,占泥石流总面积的51.1%,表明易发性评价分区效果良好。     

西昌市经久乡森林火灾火烧区特点及火后泥石流易发性评价

2020年3月30日四川省凉山彝族自治州西昌市经久乡发生特大森林火灾,大火持续3 d,过火面积超30 km2。山火后在坡面堆积了厚度1~5 cm不等的灰烬层,同时火烧迹地本身结构被扰动,在强降雨条件下极易诱发火后泥石流灾害,对附近学校、居民集中居住点,尤其是泸山—邛海风景区等重要基础设施及人民生命财产构成了严重威胁。通过遥感解译、野外调查及勘查,查明了不同火烈度及对应火烧迹地灰烬层和结构扰动特点,表明重度、中度和轻度火烧区分别占比46.8%、37.9%和15.3%,且火烧区火烧迹地坡面灰烬及土壤结构扰动层平均厚度与火烈度成正比,其中轻度、中度和重度火烧区平均厚度分别为1.20 cm,3.23 cm和5.04 cm。提出了基于中度及重度火烈度区面积占比、火烧迹地坡面灰烬及结构扰动层厚度、产沙区平均坡度、主沟平均纵比降、沟道流域面积5个影响因子,采用专家经验法对火烧区共63条潜在泥石流沟道进行火后泥石流易发性评价,结果表明:火烧区所有沟道中,有29条为高易发,占总数的46.0%;23条为中等易发,占总数的36.5%;8条为低等易发,占总数的12.7%;3条为不易发性,占总数的4.8%。考虑火烧区超过50%以上的沟道流域面积不足0.2 km2,且这些沟道平均纵比降大,坡面灰烬、泥沙等松散物源堆积较厚,使得中等及高等易发性泥石流沟道数量占比高达82.5%,一遇集中降雨,发生火后泥石流可能性极大。     

基于子流域特征的泥石流易发性评价

文章以云南省迪庆藏族自治州金沙江河谷金江镇—林当可为例,研究了基于子流域单元的泥石流易发性评价模型。首先,将研究区划分为1 570个子流域单元,其中70%(1 090个)用于模型建立,30%(480个)作为模型测试样本。然后,采用9种子流域单元特征因子（melton比率、流域平均径流侵蚀力指数、平均地形湿度指数、流域延伸率、流域平均高程、流域水系密度、流域平均植被覆盖度、流域平均坡度、流域高差率）的归一化值作为自变量,泥石流是否发育作为因变量,运用逻辑回归建立泥石流易发性评价模型,将易发性划分为5个等级。最后,通过独立的测试样本验证,易发性评价模型预测性能(AUC=0.821)良好;且随着易发性等级提高,泥石流绝对和相对发育比例逐级增加,模型满足合理性要求,适用于研究区的泥石流易发性评价。     

基于信息量的长白山地区泥石流易发性评价

长白山地区泥石流较发育,选取高程、坡度、坡向、年降水、年蒸发、泥石流点密度、人口密度、构造作用、河流作用、地层岩性、地下水类型、地貌类型、土地利用13个影响因素,以研究区110个泥石流点为样本数据,连续型指标依据各个因素分级状态下泥石流比例曲线和信息量曲线的突变点为等级划分临界值,离散型变量根据已有分类分级,建立了长白山地区泥石流易发性指标评价体系。基于信息量模型和GIS平台的栅格数据,计算各个因素分级状态下的信息量,采用自然断点法将易发性等级分为5级。结果表明:泥石流高易发区主要为地层岩性较差、靠近河流和断层的区域,土地利用类型为农业用地和居住使用地,较高易发区和高易发区占总研究区面积的19%,大部分地区较安全。采用曲线下面积即AUC值作为易发性精度验证结果,AUC值为93%,表明评价结果可靠。     

基于逻辑回归模型的泥石流易发性评价与检验：以金沙江上游奔子栏—昌波河段为例

基于地理信息系统(ArcGIS100)平台和小流域单元,采用逻辑回归(LR)模型对金沙江上游(奔子栏—昌波河段)干热河谷区进行泥石流易发性评价,并对预测结果进行总体检验与随机个案检验。评价与检验结果表明,得到的最优指标组合下LR评价模型的AUC值为827%;预测的极高易发区、高易发区面积合占全区面积的3598%,实发泥石流面积占泥石流总面积的6503%;在个案检验中,位于各等级分区的检验组样本实发泥石流比例随着分区易发性等级降低,依次为917%(极高)、750%(高)、364%(中等)、167%(低)、0(极低),表明评价效果良好。研究区泥石流集中发育于金沙江沿岸的东北部、中部和西南部,主导性的评价指标依次为距主干道路距离、岩性、距断裂带距离、雨季月平均降雨量。人类活动与季节性降雨为研究区干热河谷泥石流的主要诱发条件。基于逻辑回归模型的泥石流易发性评价方法提高了泥石流发生可能性的预测精度,可为干热河谷区泥石流预测预警和防治提供参考依据。     

甘肃河西地区泥石流沟分布特征与易发性评估研究

根据汇水面积、松散物质储量、沟坡坡度、主沟纵坡降等4项泥石流沟易发性判断特征指标,利用数理统计方法,对甘肃省河西地区20个县、区、市的587条泥石流沟现状进行了分析研究. 结果表明：河西地区泥石流多发育在南北山地的前山走廊地带,泥石流沟分布密度稀疏,属于泥石流稀疏地区. 在泥石流沟易发性主要特征指标方面,研究区汇水面积指标处于偏轻微程度,松散物质储量指标处于中等程度,沟坡坡度指标处于严重程度,主沟纵坡降指标处于中等以下程度. 在泥石流沟易发性评价结果方面区域总体属于泥石流地质灾害低易发-中易发区域. 在全球气候变暖的背景下,研究区内强降水情况发生频率呈现增强趋势,应积极开展极端天气影响下河西地区泥石流发展趋势和干旱、半干旱地区植被特征与泥石流易发性之间的相关关系研究.     

基于沟域单元的康定市泥石流易发性评价CSCD

为研究康定市泥石流易发性,将康定市划分为421个沟域单元,采用ArcGIS软件中空间分析工具以及SPSS软件分别对评价指标内部叠加情况、评价指标与泥石流灾害相关性进行了分析,通过筛除剔除重叠度高、相关性差的评价因子,选取流域面积、melton比率、形状系数比、流域崩滑密度、流域植被覆盖率、流域道路密度、流域平均径流侵蚀力指数、多年汛期平均降雨量等8个评价指标进行康定市泥石流地质灾害易发性评价。采用信息量模型与熵值法相结合的方法定量评价了泥石流易发性,熵值法定量确定了评价指标权重,计算出评价因子加权信息量值,将康定市泥石流划分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区以及低易发区4个等级。通过频率比模型、受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)对泥石流易发性评价结果进行检验,ROC曲线AUC值为0.842,表明评价模型精度较高。     

基于灰色可拓模型的洮河下游泥石流易发性评价

泥石流易发性评价对其工程防治有重要意义,以往评价中,由于主观因素过多和缺乏足够数据的定量评价,对实际情况的分析还不尽完善。为此本文选取洮河流域下游地区作为研究对象,根据泥石流的地域特点、成因和其它影响因子,在可拓学基础上建立一种泥石流易发性的评价模型,运用灰色关联度分析法定量化的分析影响因子的权重值,对研究区泥石流沟进行易发性评价。结果表明,选取的11条具有代表性的泥石流沟,有2条易发程度较高,4条易发程度中等,5条易发程度低,高易发和中易发泥石流沟在强降雨时期,易爆发泥石流,据此确定泥石流的重点防治区域,为研究区泥石流治理提供参考依据。     

基于熵权-正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价

近年来,由于极端天气事件频发和工程建设活动加剧,泥石流灾害对人类的威胁愈加严峻。因此,在综合分析泥石流灾害发育特征及形成机理的基础上,进行泥石流灾害易发性评价对防灾减灾工程活动具有指导意义。选取沟谷岸坡坡度、沟床纵坡比降、植被覆盖率、单位面积固体物源储量、汇水面积、雨季降雨量建立评价指标体系,采用熵权法确定评价指标权重,将泥石流灾害易发性分为高易发、中易发、低易发和不易发四级,建立基于正态云模型的泥石流灾害易发性评价方法,并以西秦岭地区5条泥石流沟为例验证了该评价模型的合理性。进一步将该模型用于陕西吴堡井沟泥石流灾害易发性评价,结果表明井沟泥石流具有中易发性,评价结果与实际相符。     

基于GIS的白龙江流域甘肃段滑坡易发性评价

在甘肃省白龙江流域地质灾害资料收集及现场调查的基础上, 统计分析了该区滑坡发育与地层岩性、坡度、坡向、高程、断裂、植被等因素之间的关系, 建立了白龙江流域滑坡易发性评价指标体系。采用基于GIS的层次分析法评价模型, 完成了滑坡易发性分区评价, 将研究区滑坡按易发程度划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和极低易发区, 其中, 高易发区占研究区总面积的13.59%, 主要分布在断裂带、白龙江两侧以及软弱岩土体分布的区域; 中易发区占27.85%;主要分布在白龙江支流以及主要道路两侧的一定范围内; 低易发区占33.09%, 主要分布在海拔相对较高、植被覆盖度较高、基本上无断裂带通过的区域; 其余区域为极低易发区, 占25.46%。对比分析显示评价结果与实际滑坡发育情况吻合, 可以较好地反映区内滑坡灾害发育的总体特征。      

Interplay between an axial channel belt,slope gullies and overbank deposition in the Puchkirchen Formation in the Molasse Basin,Austria

Deep‐water sediments in the Molasse Basin, Austria, were deposited in a narrow foreland basin dominated by a large channel belt located between the steep Alpine fold and thrust belt to the south and the gentler northern slope off the Bohemian Massif. Several gas fields occur outside the channel belt, along the outer bend of a large meander. Accumulation of these overbank sediments reflects a complicated interplay between slope accommodation and debris‐flow and turbidity‐flow interaction within the channel. The tectonically oversteepened northern slope of the basin (ca 2 to 3°) developed a regionally important erosional surface, the Northern Slope Unconformity, which can be traced seismically for >100 km in an east–west direction and >20 km from the channel to the north. The slope preserves numerous gullies sourced from the north that eroded into the channel belt. These gullies were ca 20 km long, <1 km wide and ca 200 m deep. As the channel aggraded, largely inactive and empty gullies served as entry points into the overbank area for turbidity currents within the axial channel. Subsequently, debris‐flow mounds, 7 km wide and >15 km long, plugged and forced the main channel to step abruptly ca 7 km to the south. This resulted in development of an abrupt turn in the channel pathway that propagated to the east and probably played a role in forming a sinuous channel later. As debris‐flow topography was healed, flows spread out onto narrow area between the main channel and northern slope forming a broad fine‐grained apron that serves as the main gas reservoir in this area. This model of the overbank splay formation and the resulting stratigraphic architecture within the confined basin could be applied in modern and ancient systems or for subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs where three‐dimensional seismic‐reflection data is limited. This study elucidates the geomorphology of the oversteepened slope of the under‐riding plate and its effects on the sedimentation.     

"5·12" 地震后汶川县泥石流特征与演化分析

2008年“5·12”汶川地震极大地改变了震区泥石流的特征,不仅增强了泥石流的活动性,同时也使得震区在相当长的时间内都要面临泥石流的威胁。本文基于前人大量的研究成果,并利用遥感解译结合现场调查等手段,分析了汶川县泥石流沟道纵坡降、沟壑密度、两岸坡度等基本发育特征;进而分析了地震前后汶川县降雨分布及泥石流相关降雨参数变化特征。结果显示,流域内泥石流沟的沟壑密度在0.2~4之间,属于微度土壤侵蚀区域,泥石流的沟床纵坡降偏大,有利于泥石流的发生;泥石流流域内斜坡坡度多为30°~40°,有利于灾害的发生;震后汶川县年均降雨量增加了5.17%,降雨多集中在7~9月份,降雨量由南及北逐渐降低;震后泥石流的降雨阈值在2008~2013年呈现缓慢回升的趋势,但2019年又有所下降,预计恢复到震前水平尚需要一定时间;同时震后汶川县泥石流物源丰富,震后物源量呈现“震荡式衰减”的演化趋势,但体量仍然很大,对泥石流仍需坚持监测预警工作。     

Debris flow susceptibility assessment by GIS and information value model in a large-scale region, Sichuan Province (China)

Debris flow susceptibility assessment is the premise of risk assessment. In this paper, Sichuan Province is chosen as a study area, where debris flow disasters happen frequently. Information value model is applied to calculate the information values of seven environmental factors, namely elevation, slope, aspect, flow accumulation, vegetation coverage, soil type and land-use type. Geographic information system technology is used to analyze the comprehensive information values so as to determine the debris flow susceptibility. The results show that the northeast, the central and the south of Sichuan are the most hazardous regions, which display a zonal distribution feature from the southeast to the south. From the validation results, 7.53 % of the total area suffers from high susceptibility and 19.97 % suffers from very high susceptibility. However, 80 % of the debris flows are concentrated in two regions. The actual occurrence ratios of debris flows of the high-susceptibility and very high-susceptibility areas are 4.95 and 2.14, respectively.     

Impacts of September 21, 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake on the characteristics of gully-type debris flows in central Taiwan

Debris flows are more frequent in central Taiwan, because of its mountainous geography. For example, many debris flows were induced by Typhoon Herb in 1996. The Chi-Chi earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3, which took place in 1999 in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in this region. Some landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This study investigates the characteristics of the gullies where debris flows have occurred for a comparison. Aerial photos of these regions dated in 1997 (before the earthquake) and 2001 (after the earthquake) are used to identify the occurrence of gully-type debris flows. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is applied to acquire hydrological and geomorphic characteristics: stream gradient, stream length, catchment gradient, catchment area, form factor, and geology unit of these gullies. These characteristics in different study regions are presented in a statistical approach. The study of how strong ground motion affects the debris flows occurrence is conducted. The characteristics of the debris flow gullies triggered by typhoons before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake are quantitatively compared. The analysis results show that a significant transformation in the characteristics was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. In general, the transformation points out a lower hydrological and geomorphic threshold to trigger debris flows after the Chi-Chi earthquake. The susceptibility of rock units to strong ground motion is also examined. The analysis of debris flow density and accumulated rainfall in regions of different ground motion also reveal that the rainfall threshold decreases after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

川藏铁路某车站泥石流群发育特征及对线路的影响

川藏铁路某车站位于藏东南冻错曲沟谷内,处于泥石流集中暴发区。采用现场调查、遥感解译等方法对影响车站的泥石流群孕灾环境和发育特征进行了深入研究。结果表明:该区以发育包括10条暴雨型泥石流与2条冰湖溃决泥石流在内的泥石流群为特征,地形地貌、水源动力和物源对泥石流群的发育起主要控制性作用。泥石流沟的流域形态完整系数集中在0.15～0.55之间,多为长条形与栎叶形,沟床的纵比降整体偏大,有利于泥石流的水源汇聚和发生。而泥石流流域内的沟道岸坡坡度多为20°～40°,相对有利于泥石流物源的补给。对该泥石流群中的12条泥石流沟进行动力学参数计算,分析其运动特征和发展趋势,认为该泥石流群的堆积扇普遍比较明显且未修建防治工程,在极端暴雨条件下,再次暴发较大规模泥石流的可能性大。最后评价了单沟暴发及冻错曲两岸对冲暴发场景下泥石流群对线路的潜在工程影响并给出了防治对策,建议线路在穿越泥石流沟部位布设排导槽或停淤堤进行束流归流,并对桥墩做好迎水面防块石撞击措施。研究结果对川藏铁路泥石流防治工程规划设计具有一定指导意义,也可为山区交通干线的合理选线提供科学依据。     

甘肃岷县浑水沟泥包砾成因机制及其灾害意义

2020年8月, 甘东南地区持续降雨且伴随多个强降雨过程, 岷县梅川镇浑水沟暴发泥石流, 左岸方家山滑坡失稳下滑, 严重威胁沟口成兰铁路安全。基于野外调查、遥感解译和室内测试结果, 分析泥包砾的形态结构、矿物组成以及堆积特征, 研究泥包砾形成的地质环境和机制, 探讨泥包砾的灾害意义。研究结果表明: 泥包砾分布于浑水沟流通区下游及堆积区, 呈球形且具多层结构, 由石英、方解石、黏土矿物等组成, 其形成主要受控于流域第四系黄土和古近系泥岩中的黏土矿物, 而较缓的沟道、岸坡黄土滑坡和崩塌的发育以及适宜的水动力条件, 促进了泥包砾的形成和自生加大; 泥石流冲击力随着泥包砾粒径的增大而增大, 再起动所需临界泥石流流速相较于块石较小; 泥包砾是古近系泥岩与泥石流共同作用的结果, 具有加剧泥石流危害的作用, 因此亟需治理浑水沟泥石流以保证成兰铁路的安全运营。      

Initiation process of debris flows on different slopes due to surface flow and trigger-specific strategies for mitigating post-earthquake in old Beichuan County, China

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) in China, produced an estimated volume of 28 × 10⁸ m³ loosened material, which led to debris flows after the earthquake. Debris flows are the dominant mountain hazards, and serious threat to lives, properties, buildings, traffic, and post-earthquake reconstruction in the earthquake-hit areas. It is very important to understand the debris flow initiation processes and characteristics, for designing debris flow mitigation. The main objective of this article is to examine the different debris flow initiation processes in order to identify suitable mitigation strategies. Three types of debris flow initiation processes were identified (designated as Types A, B, and C) by field survey and experiments. In “A” type initiation, the debris flow forms as a result of dam failure in the process of rill erosion, slope failure, landslide dam, or dam failure. This type of debris flow occurs at the slope of 10 ± 2°, with a high bulk density, and several surges following dam failure. “B” type initiation is the result of a gradual increase in headward down cutting, bank and lateral erosion, and then large amount of loose material interfusion into water flow, which increases the bulk density, and forms the debris flow. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 15 ± 3° without surges. “C” type debris flow results from slope failures by surface flow, infiltration, loose material crack, slope failure, and fluidization. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 21 ± 4°, and has several surges of debris flow following slope failure, and a high bulk density. To minimize the hazards from debris flows in areas affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, the erosion control measures, such as the construction of grid dams, slope failure control measures, the construction of storage sediment dams, and the drainage measures, such as construction of drainage ditches are proposed. Based on our results, it is recommend that the control measures should be chosen based on the debris flow initiation type, which affects the peak discharge, bulk density and the discharge process. The mitigation strategies discussed in this paper are based on experimental simulations of the debris flows in the Weijia, Huashiban, and Xijia gullies of old Beichuan city. The results are useful for post-disaster reconstruction and recovery, as well as for preventing similar geohazards in the future.     

基于不同评价单元和灾害熵的泥石流危险性分析

白龙江流域为泥石流等地质灾害密集分布区。2020年8月由于强降雨激发,白龙江流域武都段发生了大规模的群发性泥石流灾害,造成严重损失。文章以白龙江流域甘肃省陇南市武都段（宕昌县两河口乡—武都区桔柑镇）为研究区,通过野外实地考察,选取流域面积、流域形状系数、平均坡度、沟谷密度、物源参照值（HI）、岩性、流域中心距活动断层距离、一小时最大降雨量、植被覆盖度作为泥石流危险性评价因子。基于灾害熵理论,分别以泥石流单沟和小流域单元作为评价单元,利用ArcGIS软件,进行区域泥石流危险性评价。分析结果表明,研究区内泥石流沟大多数都属于中、高危险性。致灾因子中岩性、物源参照值（HI）、距断层距离、植被覆盖度及平均坡度的权重最大,与实际考察结果一致。且以小流域单元作为评价单元的评价结果更符合研究区的泥石流发育情况。     

四川凉山州美姑县61泥石流灾害研究

四川凉山州美姑县6.1泥石流灾害实例研究表明,该泥石流约为20年一遇的中小规模的泥石流。流域上游短历时强降雨和冰雹天气过程是这次泥石流暴发的诱因,流域内退化的生态环境和中下两岸不稳定边坡以及沟道内大量的松散堆积物为这次泥石流提供了丰富的固体物质来源。泥石流堆积物具有典型的多峰型粒度特征,且有较高的粘粒含量。巨大的泥石流漂砾、石背石现象、龟裂现象、侧积堤和龙头堆积证实了这次泥石流为粘性泥石流。危险度评价表明,采莫洛沟属于高度危险的泥石流沟,危险度为0.67;乃托沟属于中度危险的泥石流沟,危险度为0.58。风险评估结果可知,两沟都属于泥石流高风险区风险度分别为0.52和0.45。高风险区的泥石流灾害给当地的经济社会造成了严重影响并直接造成了较大的人员伤亡和财产损失。