我国统计学发展导向研究—基于国家社科基金项目的统计分析

 国家社会科学基金是全国哲学社会科学研究最高级的科研基金项目，它从宏观上反映了各学科研究的重点、热点、现状及发展方向。对统计学课题指南及立项项目进行统计分析，有助于把握统计学的研究现状及发展导向。本文将利用统计学国家社科基金项目的相关数据，对我国统计学发展导向问题作一探讨。     

浙江大学钱雪亚教授主持完成的国家社科基金项目成果《中国总资本水平及资本效率统计研究》获得较高评价

浙江统计学会常务理事钱雪亚教授主持完成的国家社科基金项目“中国总资本水平及资本效率统计研究”（项目批准号：0505BTJ012）成果，被全国哲学社会科学规划办公室组织的专家评定为“优秀”。     

肖红叶

肖红叶。男，1949年1月生，河北定州人．1985年2月天津财经大学统计学专业研觅生毕业，获经济学硕士学位．观任天津财经大学统计学教授．博士研究生导师．应用经济学科带头人，统计学院院长、研究生部主任、担任中国统计学会刮会长、中国统计教育学会副会长、国家社科基金项目学科组评委、教育部经济学科教学指导委员会委员、中国生产力学会常务理事等社会学术职务.     

对我国抽样框建设工作的思考

抽样框的建设(主要包括编制与更新)是抽样调查的一项基础而重要的工作,不仅为抽样调查的应用和推广奠定基础,而且是普查、全面报表制度和抽样调查相互衔接配套的基点。本文在对目前我国抽样框建设工作中存在的主要问题进行深入剖析的基础上提出编制和更新我国抽样框的基本原则和有效措施,以期为我国抽样框的建设工作提供一些有益参考。本文是国家社科基金项目(01ATJ001)的系列成果之一。     

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评《区域产业转移研究——以“大北京”经济圈为例》

近年来,由北京、天津和河北北部地区组成的“大北京”经济圈的规划对京津冀产业结构调整和主导产业选择都带来了新的机遇和挑战,如何根据京津冀的实际状况和产业梯度转移规律提出三地新的产业发展方向、产业转移和产业结构调整对策,就成为目前的一项迫切任务。河北经贸大学戴宏伟教授主持的国家社科基金项目的最终成果——《区域产业转移研究——以“大北京”经济圈为例》一书,立足产业梯度转移规律,以“大北京”经济圈为例对区域产业转移问题进行了系统的研究,并根据京津冀三省市产业结构的实际状况,对“大北京”经济圈产业梯度转移与产业…     

城镇居民消费的“习惯形成”效应

 本文利用“中国营养与健康调查”数据对中国城镇居民消费中的“习惯形成”效应进行了研究。本文以家庭的食品消费微观数据作为非耐用品消费的代理变量,并运用动态面板系统广义矩估计方法来解决模型的内生性问题。本文研究发现,“习惯形成”可以从一定程度上解释近年来中国城镇居民消费不振及高储蓄的现象,这一效应即使在考虑了城镇家庭的“预防性储蓄动机”之后仍然是稳健的,并且其对消费的边际影响比“预防性动机”更为重要。不仅如此,本文还发现家庭越富有,习惯形成越强,储蓄倾向越高。     

微信朋友圈里的"黑"与"逃"

<正>有个性格古怪的人宣称他永远也不会用微信,理由是怕朋友圈里那些莫名其妙的人。我不知道这样的决绝者有多少,只知道有些人会时不时清理微信朋友圈里的好友。才子大叔前些日子以"我不是你们好友"的方式,委婉地表达了自己要"清理门户"的意愿,原则是"不认识的人不加,见过一面只是工作关系的不加……想不起来是谁的删掉,昵称搞一堆花...     

Estimation of nonlinear errors-in-variables models: an approximate solution

We propose an easy to derive and simple to compute approximate least squares or maximum likelihood estimator for nonlinear errors-in-variables models that does not require the knowledge of the conditional density of the latent variables given the observables. Specific examples and Monte Carlo studies demonstrate that the bias of this approximate estimator is small even when the magnitude of the variance of measurement errors to the variance of measured covariates is large. Cheng Hsiao and Qing Wang's work was supported in part by National Science Foundation grant SeS91-22481 and SBR94-09540. Liqun Wang gratefully acknowledges the financial support from Swiss National Science Foundation. We wish to thank Professor H. Schneeweiss and a referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

关于中小企业问卷调查的若干问题 ——与美国中小企业融资调查之比较与借鉴

 本文对国家自然科学基金重点项目“我国中小企业发展与支持系统研究”对我国中小企业所做的问卷调查进行了回顾性研究，在比较美国联邦储备局和中小企业管理局所做的中小企业融资调查的基础上，对本项目组的中小企业问卷调查的不足进行了剖析，并从美国的调查方法中得到了若干启示与借鉴。     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed in this article:
W. Douglas Stirling, CAST (Computer Assisted Statistics Teaching)
David de Vaus, Analyzing Social Science Data: 50 Key Problems in Data Analysis     

A survey of robust statistics

We argue that robust statistics has multiple goals, which are not always aligned. Robust thinking grew out of data analysis and the realisation that empirical evidence is at times supported merely by one or a few observations. The paper examines the outgrowth from this criticism of the statistical method over the last few decades. This research was supported in part by the Swiss National Science Foundation. An erratum to this article can be found at     

论作为一级学科的统计学——兼评社会经济统计学原理的科学位置和课程内容

 1992年11月，国家技术监督局发布新的学科分类与编码，把统计学列作一级学科。同时有的学者提出建立“大统计学”学科体系的倡议。而对”大统计学“究竟指的是什么理解并不一致。本文旨在阐明笔者对这个问题的认识。     

Reversed preservation properties of some negative aging conceptions and stochastic orders

Reversed preservation properties of some negative aging conceptions are developed for the parallel and series system which are composed of independent and identical elements. If the system is of NWU(2) (IMRL, NWUC) properties then the elements is also of NWU(2) (IMRL, NWUC) properties. Reversed preservation properties of the right spread order and the total time on test transform order under the taking of maxima and minima are investigated respectively, applications in moments of NBUE ordered populations is presented as well. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (10201010) and the Action Programming Funding of Lanzhou University     

A general algorithm fob,univariate and multivariate goodness of pit tests based on graphical representation

This paper presents a general algorithm tor assessing the distributional assumptions. Empirical distributions of the corresponding test statistics are obtained and examples are given to illustrate various applications of the proposed test. By using the squared radii and angles, it is shown that the problem of assessing multivariate normality can be reduced to that of testing for a univariate distribution. A limited comparison is made to investigate the power of the proposed test. This work was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant NO.G88135. Support from the Computer Applications ami Software Engineering (CASE) Center of Syracuse University is also gratefully acknowledged     

Alternative boundaries for CUSUM tests

Alternative boundaries for the common Recursive (or Standard) CUSUM test and the OLS-based CUSUM test for structural change are suggested and their properties are examined by simulation of expectedp values. The poor power of the tests for early and late structural changes can be improved for the OLS-based version, whereas this weakness of the Recursive CUSUM test cannot be overcome by the new boundaries. Research supported by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) under grant SFB#010 (‘Adaptive Information Systems and Modeling in Economics and Management Science’).     

A new random permutation test in ANOVA models

This paper developed an exact method of random permutations when testing both interaction and main effects in the two-way ANOVA model. The method of this paper can be regarded as a much improved model when compared with those of the previous studies such as Still and White (1981) and ter Braak (1992). We further conducted a simulation experiment in order to check the statistical performance of the proposed method. The proposed method works relatively well for small sample sizes compare with the existing methods. This work was supported by Korea Science and Engineering Foundation Grant (R14-2003-002-0100)     

Estimation of a linear model under microaggregation by individual ranking

Summary Microaggregation by individual ranking is one of themost commonly applied disclosure control techniques for continuous microdata. The paper studies the effect of microaggregation by individual ranking on the least squares estimation of a multiple linear regression model. It is shown that the traditional least squares estimates are asymptotically unbiased. Moreover, the least squares estimates asymptotically have the same variances as the least squares estimates based on the original (non-aggregated) data. Thus, asymptotically, microaggregation by individual ranking does not result in a loss of efficiency in the least squares estimation of a multiple linear regression model. I thank Hans Schneeweiss for very helpful discussions and comments. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Science Foundation) is gratefully acknowledged.