湖北丹江口水库库区降雨侵蚀力特征

降雨侵蚀力(R)指数是估算土壤侵蚀量的一个基本因子,但如何利用气象站常规降雨统计资料估算R值具有重要的实践意义。利用湖北丹江口水库库区4个观测站(丹江口、十堰、郧县、郧西)的多年逐日降雨资料,通过比较分析多个经验模型对该地区的降雨侵蚀力的计算结果,优选出了表现最佳的估算模型,并用其计算结果分析了库区年降雨侵蚀力的空间分布和时间变化特征。结果表明,湖北丹江口库区丹江、郧西、十堰、郧县的年均降雨侵蚀力分别为3 331.94、3 272.40、3 501.21、3 187.94 MJ·mm/hm²·h·a,4个测站的均值为3 323.37 MJ·mm/hm2·h·a,空间分布比较均匀,与多年平均降雨量分布类似;降雨侵蚀力主要集中于5～9月份,占全年的88.60%以上;库区4个测站年降雨侵蚀力值波动较大,以郧西和十堰为甚,其最大单次降雨侵蚀力分别占其研究时段内总降雨侵蚀力的6.94%和4.87%。离差系数Cv(0.45～0.58)和趋势系数r(绝对值0.05～0.08)计算结果表明研究年限内年均降雨侵蚀力整体趋势保持平稳。
     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Effects of technical and allocative inefficiencies on energy and nonenergy elasticities: an analysis of energy-intensive industries in China

Elasticity of substitution is traditionally estimated while ignoring technical and allocative inefficiencies, which could bias the estimates. We estimate elasticity of substitution for Chinese energy-intensive sectors by incorporating these inefficiencies. The results show most of the sectors are low substitutes between input factors and stress important differences among energy-intensive sectors. Concerning the cross-price elasticity for energy, with respect to capital (labor), the sectors are mainly characterized by weak substitutability or complementary. These imply the production structure is quite rigid and capital cannot be so readily used as a substitute for energy.     

关于我国雨能分布研究

利用全国多雨、中雨和少雨典型区的自记雨量曲线和 Kinnel 方程:E=29.233·(1-e~(-(0.0477I+0.112)))计算出各点各次降雨的雨能值,并作出各区按月降雨(x)和雨能(y)的关系式:y=15.592x-171.630(多雨区),y=16.257x-280.279(中雨区),y=16.493x-107.676(少雨区)。将全国77个观测点的按月雨量资料计算出全年的雨能值。通过作图得到我国多雨和中雨区的年降雨量 P 和年雨能值 E 的关系:E=11.67p;和少雨区的关系:E=14.95P。从而可用此来估算全国各测点的雨能值。     

Analysis of the Energy Embodied in Foreign Goods Trade of China

Abstract

In recent years, scientists have been increasingly interested in the energy embodied in traded goods among countries. In this article, the direct energy intensities in various economic sectors of China were calculated with the data of energy consumption and output value of each sector, and the input–output table was used to estimate the external energy consumption. The total energy intensity of all sectors was then obtained. From the data of international trade, the energy embodied in goods trade of China was estimated for the period of 1994–2001. During this period, the average energy intensity of imported goods was always higher than that of exported ones. As a country with a surplus in international goods trade, China actually imported net embodied energy in the past few years. The net embodied energy imported was at the same magnitude of the imported energy in the form of fossil fuels.     

Evaluating the cost of flood damage based on changes in extreme rainfall in Japan

We estimated the cost of flood damage using numerical simulations based on digital map data and the flood control economy investigation manual submitted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Tourism in Japan. The simulation was carried out using a flood model incorporating representative precipitation data for all of Japan. The economic predictions, which estimate flood damage caused by extreme rainfall for the return periods of 5, 10, 30 50, and 100 years, are as follows: (1) the cost of flood damage increases nearly linearly with increases in extreme precipitation; (2) assuming that flood protection is completed for a 50-year return period of extreme rainfall, the benefit of flood protection for a 100-year return period of rainfall is estimated to be 210 billion USD; (3) the average annual expected damage cost for flooding is predicted to be approximately 10 billion USD per year, based on the probability of precipitation for a return period of 100 years and assuming that flood control infrastructures will be completed within the 50-year return period and will be able to protect from flooding with a 50-year return period; (4) urban and rural areas are predicted to suffer high and low costs of damage, respectively. These findings will help to derive measures to enhance flood protection resulting from climate change.     

Describing the annual cyclic behaviour of 7Be concentrations in surface air in Oceania

Surface air concentrations of (7)Be at a number of stations in Oceania show a distinct annual cycle. We apply a sinusoidal model to describe this cycle. The results show that peak (7)Be concentrations in surface air occur during early spring at tropical latitudes and during mid-to-late summer at middle latitudes. Comparison with available (90)Sr surface air data for the southern hemisphere indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange is an active atmospheric process controlling the (7)Be annual cycle throughout the Oceania region. Vertical transport of air within the troposphere also seems to influence the observed annual cycle. Seasonality in rainfall is not thought to control the annual cyclic behaviour of (7)Be in surface air.     

基于社会经济核算矩阵的江西省氮磷减排调控方案研究

通过编制江西省2002年包含环境账户的社会经济核算矩阵(ESAM)研究了江西省征收排污费与分类实施氮磷营养盐减排补贴对18个产业生产收益的影响。研究结果表明:不同氮磷减排调控方案对各产业产值的边际影响存在差异。总体上看,除部分服务业,调整氮磷排污费的征收标准对各部门生产收益的整体影响并不大,氮磷排放越少的产业受调控影响的产值变化较大;而调整氮（或磷）营养盐的减排补贴对各产业生产收益的边际影响较为显著,氮（或磷）排放越多的产业生产收益增加幅度越大,污染治理部门及其他氮（或磷）排放不太相关的产业生产收益变化甚微。综合比较3种减排调控方案,实施氮磷营养盐减排补贴对江西省产业发展影响最为显著     

Describing the annual cyclic behaviour of Be concentrations in surface air in Oceania

Surface air concentrations of ⁷Be at a number of stations in Oceania show a distinct annual cycle. We apply a sinusoidal model to describe this cycle. The results show that peak ⁷Be concentrations in surface air occur during early spring at tropical latitudes and during mid-to-late summer at middle latitudes. Comparison with available ⁹⁰Sr surface air data for the southern hemisphere indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange is an active atmospheric process controlling the ⁷Be annual cycle throughout the Oceania region. Vertical transport of air within the troposphere also seems to influence the observed annual cycle. Seasonality in rainfall is not thought to control the annual cyclic behaviour of ⁷Be in surface air.     

雷达定量估测降水技术在三峡流域面雨量估算中的应用

利用完全覆盖三峡流域的3部多普勒天气雷达探测资料,并结合三峡流域周边水文自动站实时观测资料,集成多种定量降水估算方法,对三峡流域进行面雨量估算。结果表明：这种方法在一定程度上弥补了传统利用自动站观测资料采用插值方法计算流域面雨量中由于自动站观测资料时空分辨率不足的缺点,提高了流域面雨量的估算精度,从而更好的为三峡水资源利用和洪峰预报提供重要参考     

Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh

Monitoring and detecting trends of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are essential for agricultural developments in the context of climate change. The present study has detected trends in annual and cropping seasonal rainfall and temperature data for the period of 1961–2011 using Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test and modified Mann–Kendall test that has been applied to the significant lag-1 serial correlated time series data, and slope has been estimated using Sen’s Slope estimator for twelve meteorological stations located in the western part of Bangladesh covering about 41 % of the country. Almost 71 % trends explored by MK test in annual rainfall are statistically insignificant, and SR test also complies it. The spatial distribution of rainfall trend shows insignificant positive trends in major part of the area. Significant positive trends both by MK test and by SR test at 95 % confidence levels are observed at rates of 8.56, 11.15 and 13.66 mm/year at Dinajpur, Rangpur and Khepupara stations, respectively, and the Kharif season rainfall of these stations also shows significant increasing trends except Dinajpur. On the other hand, significant decreasing trends in annual rainfall are found at Bhola (?11.67 mm/year) and Rajshahi (?5.951 mm/year) stations and decreasing trends in rainfall dominated the Pre-Kharif season over the area. But, 83.33 % of the stations show rising trends in annual mean temperature with significant positive trends (as observed by both MK test and SR test) at Rangpur, Bogra, Faridpur, Jessore and Bhola stations where the rate of changes vary from 0.013 °C/year at Faridpur to 0.08 °C/year at Bhola. Most of the trends in Rabi and Pre-Kharif seasons of mean temperatures are not statistically significant. However, all stations except Barisal show significant rising trends in temperature in Kharif season. To cope with this changing pattern of rainfall and temperature, effective adaptation strategies should be taken to keep up the agricultural production that is related to livelihood of the most people and to ensure the country’s food security.     

Surface air concentration and deposition of lead-210 in French Guiana: two years of continuous monitoring

To make up for the lack of data on (210)Pb aerosol deposition in tropical regions and to use this radionuclide as an aerosol tracer, a monitoring station was run for two years at Petit-Saut, French Guiana. Lead-210 concentration in air at ground level was monitored continuously together with atmospheric total deposition. The air concentration has a mean value of 0.23+/-0.02 mBq m(-3) during both wet and dry seasons, and it is only weakly affected by the precipitation mechanism. This result was unexpected in a wet tropical region, with a high precipitation rate. In contrast, deposition clearly correlates with precipitation for low/moderate rainfall (<15 cm per 15-day), while this correlation is masked by strong fluctuations at high rainfall. The estimated mean annual deposition over the last ten years is 163+/-75 Bq m(-2) y(-1). This provides a procedure for estimating this mean flux at other sites in French Guiana.     

Composition, structure, and formation factors of bottom invertebrate communities in lakes of the southern Ob-Irtysh interfluve

The composition and structure of bottom invertebrate communities have been studied in 37 lakes of the southern Ob-Irtysh interfluve in 2008–2011. The aquatic fauna of these communities includes 146 species of eight classes. The influence of the main abiotic ecological factors (hydrophysical and hydro-chemical parameters of water, bottom substrate type) on the composition and fauna of bottom communities have been estimated. It is shown that hydrochemical factors determining the total salt content of the water, substrate type, and water transparency have the strongest effect on the level of bottom invertebrate community development.     

长江上游流域降雨侵蚀力变化对河流输沙量的影响

利用长江上游主要水文站1956~2010年输沙量数据和雨量站日降雨量时间序列资料,采用线性回归研究流域降雨侵蚀力与河流输沙量的关系,并估算长江上游各子流域降雨侵蚀力变化对河流输沙量的总体贡献。结果表明:长江上游降雨侵蚀力为2 362 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)到3 814 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a),多年平均值为3 006 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a);各子流域的年均降雨侵蚀力差异较大,其中乌江子流域最大,为5 055 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a),金沙江子流域最小(1 560 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)),不足乌江子流域的1/3。各子流域降雨侵蚀力的极值比大小嘉陵江 > 岷江 > 乌江 > 金沙江。长江上游流域以及子流域输沙量在1956~2010年间均呈总体下降趋势,各子流域年均输沙量大小金沙江 > 嘉陵江 > 岷江 > 乌江。降雨侵蚀力变化对长江上游输沙量变化贡献率为7%,对岷江、嘉陵江、乌江子流域输沙量变化的贡献率分别为36%、20%、9%。总体来说,降雨对长江上游输沙量变化的影响不如人类活动的影响大。     

Effects of radionuclide and rainfall characteristics on field loss parameters of grass

The decrease of foliar activity in vegetation after its initial contamination by foliar deposition is termed “field loss” (Chamberlain, 1970). This work investigated further laboratory data concerning field loss of ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁸⁵Sr, ¹³³Ba and ^123mTe deposited on grassland (Madoz-Escande et al., 2005). Treatments consisted in rainfall scenarios cumulating 14 mm per week, combining two levels of intensity (8 or 30 mm/h) and two levels of frequency/precocity (late once or early twice-a-week). The time course of field loss was monitored in the edible tissues which were sampled by mowing between the rainfalls. Data were analyzed with an offset exponential loss model which is applicable to chronic contamination and is consistent with approaches adopted in radiological assessment models. Its parameters were estimated by the maximum-likelihood method, and their accuracy was determined by nonparametric boostrap. Radionuclide and rainfall conditions significantly affected the estimated rate (λ₁) and extent (A₁) of field loss. Field loss rate (λ₁) and nonentrainable fraction (1 − A₁) varied by a factor 1.5–3. Cesium was very mobile but persistent. On the contrary Tellerium was found less labile, but eventually was almost completely eliminated. Strontium and Barium had intermediate behaviors. Field loss was more efficient for moderate late once-a-week rainfalls (8 mm/h). Higher rainfall intensity reduced more the radionuclides losses than higher rainfall frequency/precocity. This paper reports statistically relevant effects that should be considered for more realistic assessments.     

贡嘎山森林系统小流域基流分割与降雨入渗补给计算

利用不同的方法对贡嘎山黄崩溜沟水文站实测日径流资料进行了基流分割,并利用数理统计方法对基流指数的均值、均方差、变异系数进行了计算,并对黄崩溜沟基流过程和地表径流、基流的滞后时间进行了分析。黄崩溜沟基流分割指数为0.65~0.74,平均值为0.71;枯水期,黄崩溜沟地表径流量相对降雨量滞后时间为2.7~14.5d,平均滞后8d,基流量相对地表径流滞后0.7~3d,平均滞后1.8d;丰水期,黄崩溜沟地表径流量相对降雨量滞后时间为0.7~3.7d,平均滞后1.8d,基流量相对地表径流滞后0.9~2.6d,平均滞后1.5d;考虑流域整体,计算黄崩溜沟流域降雨入渗补给系数为0.16~0.28。研究表明:利用数字滤波法中F4方法对黄崩溜沟径流进行基流分割,其结果的稳定性与可靠性最佳;丰水期黄崩溜沟地表径流量相对降雨量滞后时间明显比枯水期短,而其基流量相对地表径流滞后时间丰水期、枯水期相差不大;对某一流域径流进行基流分割时应选取多种方法,并需要对其分割结果的稳定性与可靠性进行讨论,按照流域计算降雨入渗补给地下水补给问题应考虑流域整体,尤其是在山区。     

Dynamics of leaf litter and soil respiration in a complex multistrata agroforestry system,Pernambuco, Brazil

High litter inputs in agroforestry systems contribute to soil microbial activity, soil fertility and productivity. Considering that the cycling of organic matter is essential to the maintenance of physical–chemical and microbiological properties of the soil, the aims of this work were to estimate the production, accumulation and decomposition of litter, and assess soil microbial respiration in a complex multistrata agroforestry system located in the north-east of Brazil. This agroforestry system has three strata formed by forest and fruit trees and species of multiple uses. During 3 years (2011–2013), leaf litter was sampled monthly to account for litterfall and quarterly to account for litter accumulation. The rates of litter decomposition were estimated using the ratio produced-to-accumulated litter, and the correlation between litter fall and rainfall was calculated. Precipitation data were provided by the water and climate agency of Pernambuco (APAC). Soil samples (0–15 cm) were also taken quarterly, simultaneously with the litter accumulation samples, and soil microbial respiration was assessed using the capture, by a KOH solution, of the evolved CO₂. The annual production of leaf litter was stable in the 3 years of study in this agroforestry system, and the monthly input of litter to the soil was influenced by rainfall, being higher in the dry seasons. The accumulated litter on the ground was constant, as was microbial activity (respiration) through time. The estimated litter decomposition rates were 1.49 (first year), 1.33 (second year) and 1.42 (third year), being considered rapid rates of decomposition. This guarantees (to the farmer) that this system is capable of maintaining soil fertility and eliminates the need for chemical fertilizers.     

Multivariate statistical analysis of the response of forest litters to atmospheric pollution

The effect of atmospheric discharge from the Pechenganikel' Integrated Plant, the main source of sulfur dioxide in northern Europe, on changes in acidity and cation exchange properties of forest litters formed on podzol soils was estimated in forest ecosystems at the northern limit of their range. As the plant is approached, the contents of exchangeable potassium and acidity proved to decrease, whereas the contents of nickel and copper increased by two orders of magnitude and reached one-quarter of the total cation exchange capacity. The multivariate analysis of spatial interrelations revealed the natural structure of litter properties, including those concerning exchangeable bases, pollutants, and parameters of acidity.     

中国不同强度降雨量的多属性时序变化特征及其对ENSO的响应

ENSO是影响全球和区域降雨最显著的海气环流因子之一,且具有明显的周期性发展变化特征。基于1961～2016年中国545个气象观测站的日值降水数据,依据中国气象局中央气象台划定的日降雨强度标准,将降雨分为8种强度类型,诊断其8种不同强度降雨量的多属性时序变化特征,及其在不同时频域上对ENSO的响应。结果表明:(1)1961～2016年中国低强度降雨量以减少趋势为主,高强度降雨量则以增加趋势为主。不同强度降(暴)雨量对总降(暴)雨量的贡献率也有类似变化特征。由低强度降雨向高强度降雨转变过程中,中间强度降雨量及其贡献率呈现出先增后减的现象。说明中国降雨在朝着极端化方向发展。(2)除大雨与总降雨外,其它强度降雨量均存在4年及以内的振荡周期,其与ENSO发生发展周期具有较好的一致性。(3)除小雨外,其它强度降雨量的突变均通过了0.05显著性水平的检验,其中中雨、大雨、暴雨、大暴雨、特大暴雨、总暴雨和总降雨量分别在1967、1972、1995、1995、1996、1994和1973年发生了突变。上述突变中,低强度降雨量突变多在拉尼娜年发生,而高强度降雨量则多在厄尔尼诺年发生。(4)除小雨外,其它强度降雨量在1961～2016年与ENSO具有良好的相关性,均通过了0.05显著性水平的检验。在不同时频域上,中国不同强度降雨量与ENSO多在4年及其更短尺度上具有较好的一致性变化特征。尤其在低能量波谱区的高强度降雨和总降雨量与ENSO在长期变化上一致性较高。     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入－产出”分析方法,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构,预测了未来不同的气候变化情景下,为使经济发展达到预期目标,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。