终末期肝病模型及Child-Pugh分级对肝硬化患者的短期预后分析

评价终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分、Child-Pugh(CTP)及包含血肌酐值的CTP(CrCTP)分级对肝硬化患者的短期预后的意义.分别计算104例肝硬化患者的MELD、CTP及CrCTP分值,运用ROC曲线及曲线下面积(AUC)比较MELD评分、CTP及CrCTP分级判断肝硬化患者3个月生存率的准确性.在判断患者3个月生存率的ROC曲线AUC比较中,MELD评分＞CrCTP分级＞CTP分级(P＜0.05).提示在CTP中引入血肌酐值可以提高CTP分级对肝硬化患者短期预后的判断准确性;MELD评分在判断肝硬化患者的短期预后方面优于CTP及CrCTP.     

天冬氨酸转氨酶与丙氨酸氨基转移酶比值和Child Pugh评分对肝硬化预后的评估

[目的]探讨天冬氨酸转氨酶(AST)/丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT)比值与Child Pugh评分对慢性乙肝肝硬化患者短、中期预后评估的价值.[方法]对173例肝硬化患者的生存率进行回顾性评估,随访1 a.计算每例患者入院当天的AST/ALT比值与Child Pugh评分,以受试者特征曲线(ROC)下的面积衡量两者预测患者预后的能力,分析AST/ALT比值与Child Pugh评分的相关性.[结果]AST/ALT比值与Child Pugh评分呈显著相关(r=0.53,P＜0.01).随访3个月及1 a内分别有30例及50例患者死亡,死亡者AST/ALT比值与Child Pugh评分显著高于生存者(P＜0.01).依据ROC曲线AST/ALT比值截断值为1.6,对患者1 a预后判断的敏感性为55%,特异性为72%;Child Pugh评分截断值为10,其敏感性76%,特异性68%,联合应用两者敏感性和特异性可分别提高至85%和76%.[结论]AST/ALT比值及Child Pugh评分均可有效地预测肝硬化患者的短期和中期预后,联合应用可提高其准确率.     

终末期肝病模型判断肝硬化患者预后的价值

目的终末期肝病模型(MELD)是2000年由美国的Malinchoc等建立的一个判断终末期肝硬化患者新的预后模型,本研究旨在验证MELD判断我国肝硬化患者预后方面的价值。方法选择具有完整记录资料和随访结果的315例肝硬化患者进行分析,根据MELD公式计算每例患者的MELD值及Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分和分级。运用受试者工作曲线(ROC曲线)及其曲线下面积(AUC)比较MELD、CTP评分和分级判断肝硬化患者生存3个月、1年、2年等不同时间的准确性。运用Kaplan-Meier生存分析,比较不同MELD值时患者的生存率变化。结果MELD在判断患者3个月、1年、2年等生存时间的ROC曲线AUC均大于0.8,并且均大于CTP分级或评分的面积;除与CTP分级在判断6个月、1年、3年和4年时的AUC差异有统计学意义外,在其余时间内两者之间的AUC差异无统计学意义。MELD和CTP评分在两者之间的AUC差异均无统计学意义。将患者依据MELD值分成4组后,不同分级内的生存率均存在明显差异(P<0.001)。结论MELD在判断肝硬化患者预后方面是一个很好的指标,但与CTP分级或评分相比,三者判断能力无明显差异。     

Child-Turcotte-Pugh评分差值对肝硬化患者短期预后的预测价值

目的评估Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分近期变化对肝硬化患者短期预后(5个月)的预测价值。方法选择228例肝硬化患者,计算患者入院时和入院1个月后的CTP评分,以及终末期肝病评估模型(MELD)评分,两次CTP评分的差值即△CTP评分。通过Kaplan-Meier生存分析,计算不同CTP、△CTP、MELD评分的患者的5个月生存率。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC),比较CTP、△CTP、MELD评分预测肝硬化患者5个月生存率的准确性。结果对CTP、△CTP、MELD评分各组之间进行生存分析对比,CTP A级组与B级组、MELD10组与10≤MELD20组生存曲线之间的差异无统计学意义,其余各组5个月生存曲线之间的差异均有统计学意义(P0.05)。绘制ROC曲线,CTP、△CTP、MELD评分的AUC分别为0.884、0.938、0.827,△CTP评分的AUC最大,提示其预测的准确性最高。结论△CTP评分是预测肝硬化患者短期预后的有效指标,其预测准确性高于CTP和MELD评分,可作为肝硬化患者预后的有效预测指标之一。     

终末期肝病模型及CTP评分和分级判断食管静脉曲张破裂大出血患者预后的价值

目的 评价终末期肝病模型(MELD)及Child-Turcotte-Push(CTP)在判断行急诊硬化术(EIS)的肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂大出血患者半年、1年预后方面的价值.方法 在行首次急诊EIS的肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂大出血患者中,获取有完整临床资料和随访结果的65例患者进行回顾性分析,分析MELD与CTP评分及其分级的相关性.应用接收者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)及其下的面积评价MELD、CTP评分及分级判断行急诊EIS后患者死亡风险的准确性.获取MELD及CTP评分判断患者预后死亡风险的最佳临界值.结果 MELD、CTP评分和CTP分级之间,均有明显的相关性.随访半年死亡7例,随访1年死亡9例.在随访半年和1年中,存活组和死亡组间,性别、年龄和血清胆红素相比差异无统计学意义,而血清肌酐、凝血酶原时间的国际标准化比值(INR)、CTP评分及MELD评分差异有统计学意义.MELD在判断患者半年和1年的预后方面其ROC曲线下面积均大于0.8,并均大于CTP评分和CTP分级的面积,但差异无统计学意义.MELD和CTP评分的最佳临界值均具有较好的死亡风险判断力.结论 MELD在判断行急诊EIS的肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂大出血患者半年、1年预后方面具有较好的参考性,对EIS病例的选择具有指导意义.CTP评分及其分级判断患者短期、中期预后方面准确度为中等,但并不明显弱于MELD.     

终末期肝病模型评分/血钠比值对肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂出血硬化治疗预后判断的价值

目的评估终末期肝病模型评分/血钠比值(MESO指数)对肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂出血(esophageal varices rupture and bleeding,EVB)患者内镜硬化治疗(endoscopic sclerotherapy,EIS)的生存预测价值。方法回顾性分析41例具有完整随访资料、且首次发生EVB并行急诊EIS的肝硬化患者,分别计算每例患者入院当天的血钠比值(blood sodium ratio,MESO)指数、MELD-Na、终末期肝脏病模型(end-stage liver disease model,MELD)和Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分值。分析MESO指数与MELD-Na、MELD、CTP评分的相关性。以受试者工作曲线(ROC)及曲线下面积(AUC)评价上述各模型判断行急诊EIS患者预后的准确性。获取各模型判断患者预后死亡风险的最佳临界值。结果随访3个月、12个月,生存患者与死亡患者年龄、性别构成比较差异无统计学意义(P0.05)。41例患者随访3个月有5例死亡,死亡组MESO指数1.34±0.10,生存组0.49±0.11;随访1年死亡患者12例,生存组MESO指数0.36±0.14,死亡组1.26±0.15,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05)。MESO指数、MELD、MELD-Na和CTP评分对3个月预后评估的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.917、0.857、0.854和0.786,对1年预后评估的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.885、0.835、0.829和0.746,但差异无统计学意义(P0.05)。MESO指数的最佳临界值有较高的死亡风险判断价值。判断患者预后时,ROC曲线下面积值0.800的模型,3个月为MESO(0.917)、MELD(0.857)、MELD-Na(0.854);12个月为MESO(0.885)、MELD(0.835)、MELD-Na(0.829)。结论 MESO指数越高,死亡风险越大,MESO指数对肝硬化EVB患者行急诊EIS的3个月和1年预后的判断有较高的准确性。     

终末期肝病模型评分/血钠比值对肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂出血硬化治疗预后判断的价值

目的评估终末期肝病模型评分/血钠比值(MESO指数)对肝硬化食管静脉曲张破裂出血(EVB)患者硬化治疗(EIS)的生存预测价值。方法回顾性分析67例具有完整随访资料、且首次发生EVB并行急诊EIS的肝硬化患者,分别计算每例患者入院当天的MESO指数、MELD评分和Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分值。分析MESO指数与MELD及CTP评分的相关性。以受试者工作曲线(ROC)及曲线下面积(AUC)比较MESO指数、MELD评分和CTP评分判断EVB患者急诊EIS预后的准确性。获取MESO指数判断患者预后死亡风险的最佳临界值。结果 67例患者随访3个月有8例死亡,MESO指数死亡组(1.31±0.46)与生存组(0.69±0.35);随访1年有17例死亡,MESO指数死亡组(1.06±0.45)与生存组(0.66±0.34),比较差异均有统计学意义。MESO指数、MELD和CTP评分对3个月预后评估的ROC曲线面积分别为0.907、0.856和0.787,对1年预后评估的ROC曲线面积分别为0.875、0.835和0.747,但差异无统计学意义。MESO指数的最佳临界值有较高的死亡风险判断价值。结论 MESO指数越高,死亡风险越大,对肝硬化EVB患者行急诊EIS的3个月和1年预后的判断有良好的准确性,对合理选择急诊EIS病例具有指导意义。     

终末期肝病模型对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的预测价值

目的评估终末期肝病模型（MELD）、终末期肝病模型联合Na评分（MELD-Na）、终末期肝病模型评分／血钠比值（MESO指数）、Child-Pugh（CTP）分值对失代偿期肝硬化患者预后的预测价值。方法对140例失代偿期肝硬化患者进行回顾性分析。分别比较3、6及12个月内死亡组和存活组之间的MELD评分、MELD-Na评分、MESO指数及CTP分值,并用受试者工作曲线（ROC）及曲线下面积（AUC）比较MELD、MELD—Na评分、MESO指数和CTP分值判断肝硬化患者预后的准确性并获取最佳临界值。结果在随访的3、6及12个月内死亡组和存活组MELD、MELD—Na、MESO及CTP评分比较有显著差异,在判断患者3、6及12个月生存率的ROC曲线Auc比较中,MELD—Na评分与MESO指数、MELD评分及CTP分值比较具有统计学意义差异（P〈O．05）。而MELD评分与Child-Pugh分值比较差异无统计学意义（P〉0．05）。结论MELD—Na评分、MESO、MELD及CTP均能较好预测肝硬化失代偿期患者预后,其中MELD—Na仍是以上预测失代偿期肝硬化预后中最具优势的评分模型。     

终末期肝病模型评估我国肝硬化患者预后的能力

目的：评价终末期肝病模型(MELD)在评估我国肝硬化患者预后方面的作用．方法：选择具有完整临床资料和随访结果的216例肝硬化患者进行回顾性分析．利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)及其下面积(AUC)比较MELD、美国器官共享网络(UNOS)修改后的MELD(U-MELDl、Child-Turcotte- Pugh(CTP)评分及分级判断预后的能力．每位患者的MELD值根据Kamath修改后的公式计算,U-MELD值根据UNOS修改后的计算方法计算．AUC的比较采用非参数方法．结果：MELD在判断患者3,6 mo,1a等生存时间的ROC曲线AUC值分别是0．838．0．856．0．877,均大于CTP评分及分级的AUC值．与CTP分级有显著性差异,但与CTP评分无显著性差异．U-MELD在判断3mo预后时的AUC值与CTP评分的差异有统计学意义(P=0．028),而在6mo,1a时两者间的AUC差异尚无统计学意义．结论：MELD与CTP评分的差异无统计学意义,而U-MELD在评估3mo预后方面较CTP评分已有显著优势．     

五种评分系统对慢性重型肝炎预后的预测价值比较及其临床意义

目的 比较终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分、Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分、Mayo评分、MESO指数和MELD-Na评分系统预测慢性重型肝炎患者预后的价值.方法 回顾性分析温州医学院附属第一医院213例慢性重型肝炎患者的临床资料,计算其MELD、CTP、Mayo、MESO和MELD-Na评分,比较各评分系统在死亡组和生存组中的差异,通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,曲线下面积(AUC)及截断值进行比较分析.计量资料的比较使用成组t检验,各评分系统之间AUC的比较使用MEDCLAC软件.结果 死亡组的MELD、CTP、Mayo、MESO、MELD-Na评分分别是(30.6±9.5)、(11.3±1.5)、(10.4±1.3)、(2.3±0.8)和(39.0±11.8)分,均高于生存组的(21.1±6.8)、(10.6±1.6)、(9.0±1.5)、(1.6±0.5)和(22.6±8.2)分,差异有统计学意义(t=7.31,t=3.10,t=6.70,t=7.90,t=10.21,均P＜0.01);各评分系统的AUC分别为0.810、0.623、0.749、0.829和0.885;Youden指数分别为0.507、0.175、0.389、0.528和0.650.结论 CTP评分判断慢性重型肝炎的预后尚不理想;Mayo评分具有一定的预测能力;MELD、MESO、MELD-Na评分在预测慢性重型肝炎预后方面具有肯定的临床应用价值,且MELD-Na评分优于MESO指数和MELD评分.     

The 1-year and 3-month prognostic utility of the AST/ALT ratio and model for end-stage liver disease score in patients with viral liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES: The AST/ALT ratio has shown good diagnostic accuracy in patients with chronic viral liver disease. However, its prognostic utility has never been tested. Recently, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been proposed as a simple and effective tool to predict survival in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aims of this study were to assess the 3-month and 1-yr prognostic ability of the AST/ALT ratio in a series of patients with virus-related liver cirrhosis, and to evaluate the relationship between the AST/ALT ratio and the MELD score and to compare their prognostic ability. METHODS: The AST/ALT ratios and MELD scores of 99 patients with liver cirrhosis of viral etiology (73 patients with hepatitis C virus and 26 with hepatitis B virus) who had been followed-up for at least 1 yr were retrospectively calculated and correlated with the patients' 3-month and 1-yr prognosis. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine the AST/ALT ratio and the MELD score cut-offs with the best sensitivity (SS) and specificity (SP) in discriminating between patients who survived and those who died. Univariate survival curves were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method using the cut-offs identified by means of receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: AST/ALT ratios and MELD scores showed a significant correlation (r(s) = 0.503, p = 0.0001). In all, 8% and 30% of the patients had died after 3 months and 1 yr of follow-up, respectively. AST/ALT ratios and MELD scores were significantly higher among the patients who died during both 3-month and 1-yr follow-up. An AST/ALT ratio cut-off of 1.17 had 87% SS and 52% SP, whereas a MELD cut-off of 9 had 57% SS and 74% SP in discriminating between patients who survived and those who died after I yr. The combined assessment of the AST/ALT ratio and/or MELD score had 90% SS and 78% SP. Survival curves of the patients showed that both parameters clearly discriminated between patients who survived and those who died in the short term (AST/ALT ratio, p = 0.0094; MELD score, p = 0.0089) as well as in the long term (AST/ALT ratio, p < 0.0005; MELD score, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with virus-related cirrhosis, the AST/ALT ratio has prognostic capability that is not significantly different from that of an established prognostic score such as MELD. Combined assessment of the two parameters increases the medium-term prognostic accuracy.     

The AST/ALT ratio as an indicator of cirrhosis in patients with PBC.

OBJECTIVES: A non-invasive, simple and non-expensive test to predict cirrhosis would be highly desirable. The aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio has been proven to be such an indicator of cirrhosis in alcoholic liver disease, hepatitis C. AIM: To test whether the AST/ALT ratio is a marker of cirrhosis also in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). METHODS: The study consisted of 160 patients. In 126 patients, we had clinical and laboratory data at the time of diagnosis and follow-up with outcome: liver-related death, liver transplantation and survival. In 121 patients, we had laboratory data and liver histology. RESULTS: We found that the AST/ALT ratio was significantly higher in cirrhotic patients than in non-cirrhotic patients. A high AST/ALT ratio was significantly associated with esophageal varices and ascites. In a multivariate analysis, bilirubin and ALP were predictors of poor prognosis. CONCLUSION: The AST/ALT ratio seems to be of clinical value as a hint to the diagnosis of cirrhosis in patients with PBC but not as a prognostic factor.     

Hyaluronic acid and aspartate aminotransferase levels normalized by liver function can reflect sinusoidal impairment in chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND/AIM: To evaluate the relationship between hyaluronic acid/aminopyrine breath test (HA/ABT) ratio and fibrosis score in chronic hepatitis, and between HA/ABT and clinical staging (child-turcotte-pugh'score, CTP; and model for end stage liver disease, MELD) in cirrhosis, as well as to evaluate the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/ABT in relation to the HA/ABT. METHODS: We studied 48 patients with histologically proven chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and 35 patients with compensated cirrhosis (CIR). RESULTS: HA/ABT and AST/ABT showed a more significant correlation with the fibrosis score than HA or ABT or AST alone in the 48 CHC patients: r=0.568 (P<0.0001), r=0.610 (P<0.0001), r=0.450 (P=0.0021), r=-0.449 (P=0.0021), and r=0.472(P=0.0012), respectively. Progressive liver damage (fibrosis 1-2 vs fibrosis 3-6 vs cirrhosis) was significantly (P<0.05) reflected by both HA/ABT (mean+/-SEM: 4.0+/-0.9 vs 18.1+/-4.2 vs 149.9+/-33.1) and AST/ABT (6.3+/-1.8 vs 12.7+/-1.6 vs 42.1+/-14.6). A strong relationship was found between HA/ABT and AST/ABT (r=0.755 P<0.0001). In cirrhotic patients, the most significant relationship was observed between HA/ABT and CTP r=0.483 and P=0.0049, and MELD r=0.523 and P=0.0023. CONCLUSION: Considering that HA levels in chronic hepatitis depend on the progressive impairment of sinusoidal endothelial cells (SEC), related to progressive fibrosis, HA/ABT ratio would seem to be the most specific reflection of progressive impairment of the SEC. AST/ABT could be used as a possible surrogate of HA in identifying SEC impairment in chronic hepatitis.     

Validity and clinical utility of the aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio in assessing disease severity and prognosis in patients with hepatitis C virus-related chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND: The aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AST/ALT ratio) has been used to noninvasively assess the severity of disease in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). We previously demonstrated that progressive liver functional impairment is associated with an increase in the AST/ALT ratio. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the reproducibility and transportability of the AST/ALT ratio in a large cohort of patients with different degrees of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related CLD, to confirm the correlation between progressive impairment of liver function and increase in the AST/ALT ratio, to evaluate whether diagnostic accuracy of the ALT/AST ratio can be improved by using it with other biochemical variables, and to assess the 1-year prognostic capability of the AST/ALT ratio in patients with liver cirrhosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 252 patients with HCV-related CLD. The AST/ALT ratio was correlated with the degree of liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis and with the Child-Pugh score in patients with cirrhosis. All patients had undergone monoethylglycinexylidide (MEGX) testing to evaluate liver function. We assessed the prognostic ability of the AST/ALT ratio in a subset of 63 cirrhotic patients who were followed up for at least 1 year. RESULTS: The AST/ALT ratio was more frequently 1 or higher in cirrhotic patients (P<.001). There was a significant correlation between MEGX values and the AST/ALT ratio (r(s) = -0.621, P<.001). Multivariate stepwise logistic analysis showed that AST/ALT ratio, platelet count (PLT), MEGX values, and prothrombin activity were independently associated with the presence of cirrhosis. Combined assessment of the AST/ALT ratio and/or PLT obtained 97.0% positive predictive value and 97.9% negative predictive value for the diagnosis of cirrhosis. The AST/ALT ratio had 81.3% sensitivity and 55.3% specificity in identifying cirrhotic patients who died within 1-year of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The AST/ALT ratio is both reproducible and transportable in patients with HCV-related CLD. The AST/ALT ratio is correlated with both histologic stage and clinical evaluation. Progressive liver functional impairment is reflected by an increase in the AST/ALT ratio. Noninvasive evaluation by means of the combined AST/ALT ratio and PLT assessment misclassifies only a few cirrhotic patients. In cirrhotic patients, the AST/ALT ratio provides medium-term prognostic information that is no different from that provided by established prognostic scores.     

miR-122在肝脏疾病调控中的作用研究进展

miRNA-122是MicroRNAs家族的一员,其在肝脏中高度特异性表达,参与肝脏的发育分化、基因表达调控和功能代谢,并与丙型肝炎病毒感染与肝癌的发生发展等密切相关。本文重点介绍miRNA-122在肝脏疾病调控中的作用研究进展。     

Prediction of coronary atherosclerotic disease with liver transaminase level.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Recent studies have shown that liver transaminases are associated with components of the metabolic syndrome including central obesity, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia and high blood pressure, but their direct influence on coronary atherosclerosis has not been investigated before. We conducted this study to evaluate the predictive value of liver transaminases for angiography-documented coronary atherosclerosis in patients with coronary heart disease. METHODS: Six hundred and thirty consecutive patients with suspicious coronary artery disease (CAD) who were candidates for coronary angiography were enrolled. In addition to coronary angiography, measurements of serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentrations, C-reactive protein (CRP) level and assessment of the traits of the metabolic syndrome were performed in all patients. RESULTS: ALT and ALT/AST ratios were significantly correlated with angiographic atherosclerosis score in women (r=0.17 and 0.24 respectively). Logistic regression analysis showed that the ALT/AST ratio in women could predict severe CAD [odds ratio (OR) 3.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76-8.76]. After adjustment for components of the metabolic syndrome and CRP concentration, the OR remained significant (4.00 [1.76-9.14]). Although significant in univariate analysis, neither ALT (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.77-1.15) nor AST (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.72-1.22) could predict severe CAD in men. CONCLUSION: An elevated ALT/AST ratio in women predicts coronary atherosclerosis independently of the metabolic syndrome and serum CRP concentration, and should warrant further diagnostic and therapeutic interventions.     

终末期肝病模型评估失代偿期肝硬化患者预后的价值

目的: 评价终末期肝病模型(model for endstage liver disease,MELD)对肝硬化患者短期预后预测的价值.方法: 对肝硬化失代偿期患者203例进行回顾性分析,随访患者在3、6及12 mo内的预后. 记录每例患者入院第1天的MELD及Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)评分. 应用接受者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)及其曲线下面积(AUC)比较MELD、CTP评估患者生存时间的准确性. 依据ROC曲线的截断值绘制Kaplan-Meier生存曲线,应用非参数秩相关即Spearman等级相关检验分析MELD与CTP评分的相关性.结果: 3、6及12 mo内分别死亡23、39、85例,MELD评分与CTP评分均显著相关( r = 0.76,0.69,0.71,均P<0.01). 3、6及12 mo内MELD与CTP对住院患者预后预测的AUC分别为0.886和0.775( P<0.01)、0.892和0.876( P>0.05)、0.873和0.866( P>0.05). 生存分析表明2评分系统均可有效预测3、6及12 mo内患者可能的生存率和死亡率( P<0.01).结论: MELD模型可预测失代偿肝硬化患者12 mo内的生存率,3 mo内MELD模型优于CTP评分,但6 mo及12 mo内MELD模型和CTP评分相比没有明显优势.     

Logistic预测模型对失代偿期肝硬化预后的临床价值研究

目的评价Logistic模型及3个传统肝硬化预后模型(MELD模型、MELD-Na模型及CTP评分)对失代偿期肝硬化患者3个月及1年预后的预测价值。方法回顾性分析南昌大学第一附属医院消化科2003年1月至2008年12月期间住院且病历资料及随访结果完整的失代偿期肝硬化1086例,记录1086例患者入院第1天的MELD-Na、MELD、CTP积分,随访患者在3个月及12个月内生存情况。通过Logistic单因素及多因素回归分析,得出对失代偿期肝硬化患者3个月内预后有影响的因素,并建立Logistic模型;应用ROC及其AUC比较Logistic模型、MELD-Na、MELD、CTP评分预测肝硬化患者预后的准确性。结果4种模型对失代偿期肝硬化患者3个月及1年内预后预测均有较好价值。Logistic模型在预测失代偿期肝硬化患者3个月预后方面优于MELD模型及CTP(P<0.05),与MELD-Na模型对比差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),但AUC大于MELD-Na模型;Logistic模型在预测失代偿期肝硬化患者1年预后方面优于CTP(P<0.05),与MELD-Na及MELD模型对比无统计学差异,但AUC大于MELD-Na及MELD模型。结论4种模型均能较好地预测失代偿期肝硬化3个月及1年预后情况,Logistic模型、MELD-Na模型优于CTP,其中Logistic模型预测该类患者预后的AUC最大。     

The ratio of aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase: potential value in differentiating nonalcoholic steatohepatitis from alcoholic liver disease

OBJECTIVE: The ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is often greater than 2:1 in alcoholic hepatitis. The purpose of this study was to determine whether this ratio may be used to distinguish nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) from alcoholic liver disease. METHODS: Patients with NASH were matched with controls with alcoholic liver disease based on age, gender, and date of diagnosis. The diagnosis of alcoholic liver disease was based on exclusion of other causes and a significant history of alcohol consumption. The diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis was based on exclusion of other causes of liver disease and a liver biopsy showing > 10% steatosis and inflammation. The two sided Student t test was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: From 1990 to 1996, 70 patients with NASH were matched with 70 subjects with alcoholic liver disease. Patients with NASH had a mean AST to ALT ratio of 0.9 (range 0.3-2.8, median 0.7) and subjects with alcoholic liver disease a mean ratio of 2.6 (range 1.1-11.2, median 2.0). The mean AST levels were 66 U/L and 152 U/L, and the mean ALT levels 91 U/L and 70 U/L, in the nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and alcoholic liver disease groups, respectively. Although the absolute aminotransferase levels were significantly different in the two groups (p < 0.05), the greatest difference was observed in the AST to ALT ratio (p < 0.000001). Subset analysis of patients with NASH revealed mean AST to ALT ratios of 0.7, 0.9, and 1.4 for subjects with no fibrosis, mild fibrosis, or cirrhosis, respectively. The differences among these ratios were statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The AST to ALT ratio appears to be a useful index for distinguishing nonalcoholic steatohepatitis from alcoholic liver disease. Although values < 1 suggest NASH, a ratio of > or = 2 is strongly suggestive of alcoholic liver disease.