Comparison of Dynamic Changes Among Various Prognostic Scores in Viral Hepatitis-Related Acute Liver Failure

Introduction and aim. Multiple prognostic scores are available for acute liver failure (ALF). Our objective was to compare the dynamicity of model for end stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, acute liver failure early dynamic model (ALFED), chronic liver failure (CLIF)-consortium ACLF score and King’s College Hospital Criteria (KCH) for predicting outcome in ALF.Materials and methods. All consecutive patients with ALF at a tertiary care centre in India were included. MELD, MELD-Na, ALFED, CLIF-C ACLF scores and KCH criteria were calculated at admission and day 3 of admission. Area under receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROC) were compared with DeLong method. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), likelihood ratio (LR) and diagnostic accuracy (DA) were reported.Results. Of the 115 patients included in the study, 73 (63.5%) died. The discrimination of mortality with baseline values of prognostic scores (MELD, MELD-Na, ALFED, CLIF-C ACLF and KCH) was modest (AUROC: 0.65-0.77). The AUROC increased on day 3 for all scores, except KCH criteria. On day 3 of admission, ALFED score had the highest AUROC 0.95, followed by CLIF-C ACLF 0.88, MELD 0.81, MELD-Na 0.77 and KCH 0.52. The AUROC for ALFED was significantly higher than MELD, MELD-Na and KCH (P < 0.001 for all) and CLIF-C ACLF (P = 0.05). ALFED score > 4 on day 3 had the best sensitivity (87.1%), specificity (89.5%), PPV (93.8%), NPV (79.1%), LR positive (8.3) and DA (87.9%) for predicting mortality.Conclusions. Dynamic assessment of prognostic scores better predicts outcome. ALFED model performs better than MELD, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C ACLF scores and KCH criteria for predicting outcome in viral hepatitis-related ALF.     

Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment is better than the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of Liver criteria for defining acute-on-chronic liver failure and predicting outcome

AIM: To compare the utility of the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) and Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of Liver (APASL) definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with ACLF.METHODS: Consecutive patients of cirrhosis with acute decompensation were prospectively included. They were grouped into ACLF and no ACLF groups as per CLIF-SOFA and APASL criteria. Patients were followed up for 3 mo from inclusion or mortality whichever was earlier. Mortality at 28-d and 90-d was compared between no ACLF and ACLF groups as per both criteria. Mortality was also compared between different grades of ACLF as per CLIF-SOFA criteria. Prognostic scores like CLIF-SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-II, Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were evaluated for their ability to predict 28-d mortality using area under receiver operating curves (AUROC).RESULTS: Of 50 patients, 38 had ACLF as per CLIF-SOFA and 19 as per APASL criteria. Males (86%) were predominant, alcoholic liver disease (68%) was the most common etiology of cirrhosis, sepsis (66%) was the most common cause of acute decompensation while infection (66%) was the most common precipitant of acute decompensation. The 28-d mortality in no ACLF and ACLF groups was 8.3% and 47.4% (P = 0.018) as per CLIF-SOFA and 39% and 37% (P = 0.895) as per APASL criteria. The 28-d mortality in patients with no ACLF (n = 12), ACLF grade 1 (n = 11), ACLF grade 2 (n = 14) and ACLF grade 3 (n = 13) as per CLIF-SOFA criteria was 8.3%, 18.2%, 42.9% and 76.9% (χ² for trend, P = 0.002) and 90-d mortality was 16.7%, 27.3%, 78.6% and 100% (χ² for trend, P < 0.0001) respectively. Patients with prior decompensation had similar 28-d and 90-d mortality (39.3% and 53.6%) as patients without prior decompensation (36.4% and 63.6%) (P = NS). AUROCs for 28-d mortality were 0.795, 0.787, 0.739 and 0.710 for CLIF-SOFA, APACHE-II, Child-Pugh and MELD scores respectively. On multivariate analysis of these scores, CLIF-SOFA was the only significant independent predictor of mortality with an odds ratio 1.538 (95%CI: 1.078-2.194).CONCLUSION: CLIF-SOFA criteria is better than APASL criteria to classify patients into ACLF based on their prognosis. CLIF-SOFA score is the best predictor of short-term mortality.     

Acute-on-chronic liver failure in a multi-ethnic Asian city:A comparison of patients identified by Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver and European Association for the Study of the Liver definitions

AIM To explore the applicability of the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver(APASL) and European Association for the Study of the Liver(EASL) guidelines for acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in profiling patients and determining the outcome.METHODS Patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore with acute decompensation of liver disease from January 2004to July 2014 are screened for ACLF according to the APASL and EASL criteria. The patients' data(including basic demographics, information about existing chronic liver disease, information about the acute decompensation, relevant laboratory values during admission, treatment, and outcome) are retrospectively analyzed to determine the background, precipitating factors and outcome.RESULTS A total of 458 liver patients is analyzed, and 78 patients with ACLF are identified. Sixty-three patients(80.8%) meet the APASL criteria, 64 patients(82.1%) meet the EASL criteria, and 49 patients(62.8%) fulfilled both criteria. The most common causes of acute liver injury are bacterial infections(59.0%), hepatitis B flare(29.5%), and variceal bleeding(24.4%). The common aetiologies of the underlying chronic disease included hepatitis B(43.6%), alcoholic(20.5%) and cryptogenic(11.5%) liver disease. The overall mortality rate is 61.5%. Increased age, the number of organ failures(as per CLIF-SOFA score), peak creatinine, INR, and amylase levels are associated with increased mortality or the need for liver transplantation. 14.3% of patients undergo liver transplantation with a 100% 1-year survival rate. CONCLUSION Both APASL and EASL criteria have identified ACLF patients with high three-month mortality, but those who fulfill APASL criteria alone have a better survival.     

四种评分模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后的评价

目的比较终末期肝病模型（MELD）、MELD-Na、慢性重型肝炎预后指数（PI）和肝移植标准（LTS）模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后的预测价值.方法在138例慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者入院24小时内进行MELD、MELD-Na、PI和LTS评分,并随访3个月.应用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下面积（AUC）判断四个模型的预测能力.结果在观察期内与肝病有关的死亡患者72例,生存者66例.死亡组LTS、MELD-Na、MELD和PI平均值明显高于生存组（P〈0.01）,四个模型的AUC分别为0.860、0.801、0.749、和0.749,差异无统计学意义;四个模型预测的正确率分别为82.61%、76.81%、75.36%和73.91%,差异无统计学意义.结论4种模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后均有较好的预测价值.     

Assessment of scoring systems for acute-on-chronic liver failure at predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

AIMTo assess the performance of proposed scores specific for acute-on-chronic liver failure in predicting short-term mortality among patients with alcoholic hepatitis.METHODSWe retrospectively collected data from 264 patients with clinically diagnosed alcoholic hepatitis from January to December 2013 at 21 academic hospitals in Korea. The performance for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), Maddrey’s discriminant function (DF), age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na.RESULTSOf 264 patients, 32 (12%) patients died within 28 d. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OFs, DF, ABIC, GAHS, MELD, and MELD-Na was 0.86 (0.81-0.90), 0.89 (0.84-0.92), 0.79 (0.74-0.84), 0.78 (0.72-0.83), 0.81 (0.76-0.86), 0.83 (0.78-0.88), and 0.83 (0.78-0.88), respectively, for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-SOFA had no statistically significant differences for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-C OFs was superior to that of DF, ABIC, and GAHS, while comparable to that of MELD and MELD-Na in predicting 28-d mortality. A CLIF-SOFA score of 8 had 78.1% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity, and CLIF-C OFs of 10 had 68.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity for predicting 28-d mortality.CONCLUSIONCLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores performed well, with comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to the commonly used scoring systems in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.     

Predictors and outcome of emergent Liver transplantation for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background and aimsControversy exists over whether emergent liver transplantation (LT) should be performed for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), especially for patients with multiple organ failure.MethodsA total of 110 ACLF patients, defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) criteria were analyzed. The primary outcome was overall survival after ACLF diagnosis.ResultsDuring follow-up, 76 patients received LT (59 received deceased-donor LT and 17 patients received living-donor LT). The overall survival was better for patients who received LT than patients who did not (82.9% vs. 17.6%, P < 0.001). Among the 76 patients who received LT, the overall survival was not different according to ACLF grade at diagnosis (70.0%, 85.3%, and 84.4% at one-year for ACLF grades 1, 2, and 3, respectively, P = 0.45). The baseline model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and progression of the ACLF grade during the pre-transplant period were independent factors for survival after LT. The one-year survival rate was 92.3% for patients with baseline MELD scores of ≤ 32 without ACLF grade progression, whereas it was 33.3% for those with baseline MELD scores of > 32 and ACLF grade progression.ConclusionsEmergent LT provided a significant survival benefit to ACLF patients, regardless of the baseline ACLF grade. Post-LT outcomes were associated with baseline MELD scores and ACLF progression during the pre-transplant period, which might be used in the emergent LT plan for patients presenting with ACLF.     

多种预后评分系统预测慢加急性肝衰竭并发真菌感染患者短期预后价值分析*

目的 探讨应用终末期肝病模型(MELD)、终末期肝病模型联合血清钠模型(MELD-Na⁺)、亚太肝脏研究协会慢加急性肝衰竭研究小组评分(AARC-ACLF)和慢性肝衰竭-序贯器官衰竭评分(CLIF-SOFA)等4种预后评分系统预测慢加急性肝衰竭(ACLF)并发真菌感染(IFI)患者短期预后的价值。方法 2018年1月～2020年10月我院收治的ACLF并发IFI患者60例,给予内科综合治疗,分别计算MELD、MELD-Na⁺、AARC-ACLF和CLIF-SOFA评分,应用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)评估4种预后评分系统对患者死亡风险的预测效能。结果 在治疗观察12 w末,本组ACLF并发IFI患者病死率为68.3%;41例死亡组血清总胆红素、凝血酶原时间国际标准化比值、肌酐和乳酸水平分别为(362.9±79.7)μmol/L、(2.3±0.2)、(131.7±21.5)μmol/L和(1.6±0.4)mmol/L,均显著高于生存组【分别为(277.4±63.6)μmol/L、(1.7±0.1)、(102.9±15.3)μmol/L和(1.3±0.3)mmol/L,P＜0.05】,而血清白蛋白水平为(29.6±2.2)g/L,显著低于生存组【(31.8±2.7)g/L,P＜0.05】;死亡组并发肝性脑病发生率为43.9%,显著高于生存组的10.5%(P＜0.05);死亡组MELD评分、MELD-Na⁺评分、CLIF-SOFA评分和AARC-ACLF评分分别为(29.1±7.3)分、(30.4±7.5)分、(8.7±1.4)分和(9.2±1.1)分,均显著高于生存组【分别为(20.7±4.6)分、(21.9±5.2)分、(6.8±1.0)分和(7.3±0.8)分,P＜0.05】;ROC曲线分析发现,分别以MELD评分＞22.0分、MELD-Na⁺评分＞23.0分、AARC-ACLF评分＞8.0分和CLIF-SOFA评分＞8.0分为截断点,预测ACLF并发IFI患者12 w死亡风险高的AUC分别为0.687、0.716、0.893和0.884,提示CLIF-SOFA评分和AARC-ACLF评分预测效能显著优于MELD评分或MELD-Na⁺评分(P＜0.05)。结论 应用AARC-ACLF和CLIF-SOFA评分可预测ACLF并发IFI患者近期病死风险,具有一定的临床实用价值。     

Chronic liver failure-consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure and acute decompensation scores predict mortality in Brazilian cirrhotic patients

AIM To validate prognostic scores for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure in Brazilian patients.METHODS This is a prospective cohort study designed to assess the prognostic performance of the chronic liver failure-consortium(CLIF-C) acute decompensation score(CLIF-C AD) and CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score(CLIF-C ACLF),regarding 28-d and 90-d mortality,as well as to compare them to other prognostic models,such as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease(MELD),MELD Sodium(MELD-Na),ChildPugh(CP) score,and the CLIF-C Organ Failure score(CLIF-C OF). All participants were adults with acute decompensation of cirrhosis admitted to the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil. Prognostic performances were evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves,area under the curves(AUC) and 95%CI.RESULTS One hundred and thirteen cirrhotic patients were included. At admission,18 patients had acute-onchronic liver failure(ACLF) and 95 individuals had acute decompensation(AD) without ACLF,of which 24 eventually developed ACLF during the course of hospitalization(AD evolving to ACLF group). The AD group had significantly lower 28-d(9.0%) and 90-d(18.3%) mortality as compared to the AD evolving to ACLF group and to the ACLF group(both P 0.001). On the other hand,28-d and 90-d mortalities were not significantly different between AD evolving to ACLF group and ACLF group(P = 0.542 and P = 0.708,respectively). Among patients with ACLF,at 28 d from the diagnosis,CLIF-C ACLF was the only score able to predict mortality significantly better than the reference line,with an AUC(95%CI) of 0.71(95%CI: 0.54-0.88,P = 0.021). Among patients with AD,all prognostic scores performed significantly better than the reference line regarding 28-d mortality,presenting with similar AUCs: CLIF-C AD score 0.75(95%CI: 0.63-0.88),CP score 0.72(95%CI: 0.59-0.85),MELD score 0.75(95%CI: 0.61-0.90),MELD-Na score 0.76(95%CI: 0.61-0.90),and CLIF-C OF score 0.74(95%CI: 0.60-0.88). The same occurred concerning AUCs for 90-d mortality: CLIF-C AD score 0.70(95%CI: 0.57-0.82),CP score 0.73(95%CI: 0.62-0.84),MELD score 0.71(95%CI: 0.59-0.83),MELD-Na score 0.73(95%CI: 0.62-0.84),and CLIF-C OF score 0.65(95%CI: 0.52-0.78).CONCLUSION This study demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF is the best available score for the prediction of 28-d mortality among patients with ACLF. CLIF-C AD score is also useful for the prediction of mortality among cirrhotic patients with AD not fulfilling diagnostic criteria for ACLF,but it was not superior to other well-established prognostic scores.     

Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) as an accurate and simple prognostic score for chronic hepatitis B-related liver cirrhosis

BackgroundThe Albumin–Bilirubin (ALBI) score was developed to predict the long-term prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. We aimed to investigate the performance of ALBI for predicting severity and long-term prognosis of chronic hepatitis B-related liver cirrhosis (CHB-LC).MethodsCHB-LC patients were enrolled from two medical centers between 2011 and 2017. The prognostic performance of ALBI was evaluated and compared with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD integrating sodium (MELD-Na) scores.ResultsThis study enrolled 398 CHB-LC patients and patients were followed up for a median of 33.9 (IQR 21.6–48.8) months. The ALBI (HR: 3.151, 95% CI: 2.039–4.869,P < 0.001) was identified as an independent predictor of liver-related mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) analysis revealed that ALBI score (0.756, 0.745, 0.739, 0.767 and 0.765) was superior to MELD score (P < 0.05) and comparable with CTP score (P > 0.05) for predicting 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, 5-year and global mortality. The AUROCs of ALBI score were significantly higher than MELD-Na score(P < 0.05) for predicting 2-year, 3-year and 5-year mortality. Patients with lower ALBI grade had a significantly lower mortality than patients with higher ALBI grade (P < 0.05).ConclusionsALBI score accurately predicts the severity and long-term prognosis of patients with CHB-LC. The prognostic performance of ALBI score was superior to MELD and MELD-Na score.     

不同终末期肝病模型评估血浆置换治疗慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后

目的应用终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na联合公式(MELD-Na)、MESO指数(MESO)、integratedMELD整合公式(iMELD)、MELDNa评分系统(MELDNa)评估慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者在血浆置换(PE)治疗后短期预后。方法在122例慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭入院24小时内进行MELD、MELD-Na、MESO、iMELD、MELDNa评分,并随访3个月。应用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)下面积(AUC)判断五个模型的预测能力。结果在3个月末,PE治疗组患者病死率为43.24%(16/37),与非PE治疗组55.65%(49/85)比,差异无统计学意义(x2=1.466,P=0.143);在PE治疗组,五种模型AUC分别为0.667、0.690、0.670、0.702和0.673,差异无统计学意义,仅iMELD的AUC>0.7,有一定的临床价值,而在非PE治疗组分别为0.901、0.916、0.906、0.876和0.910,差异无统计学意义,PE治疗组与非PE组AUC的比较均具统计学差异,MELD(Z=0.2087,P<0.05)、MELD-Na(Z=0.1971,P<0.05)、MESO(Z=0.2094,P<0.05)、iMELD(Z=0.155,P<0.05)、MELDNa(Z=0.2094<0.05);在PE治疗组,五种模型预测的正确率分别为72.97%、70.30%、75.78%、72.93%和75.68%,差异无统计学意义(x2=0.389,P=0.983),在非PE治疗组分别为83.53%、87.06%、82.35%、78.82%和84.71%,差异无统计学意义(x2=2.266,P=0.687),PE治疗组与非PE治疗组之间相比较,其中MELD、MESO、iMELD、MELDNa均无统计学意义(分别为x2=1.818,P=0.178;x2=0.727,P=0.394;x2=0.499,P=0.480;x2=1.442,P=0.233),而仅MELD-Na具统计学意义(x2=4.916,P=0.027)。结论五种评分模型对非PE治疗的慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后判断均有非常好的预测价值,而在PE治疗的慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者,除iMELD对短期预后判断有临床应用价值外,其余四种模型评估患者短期预后的能力较差。     

Alcohol-related acute-on-chronic liver failure—Comparison of various prognostic scores in predicting outcome

Background and Aims

Various prognostic scores are available for predicting outcome in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We compared the available prognostic models as predictors of outcome in alcohol-related ACLF patients.

Methods

All consecutive patients with alcohol-related ACLF were included. At admission, prognostic indices-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation score (APACHE II), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, Maddrey’s discriminant function (DF), age-bilirubin-INR-creatinine (ABIC), and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLF) score were calculated. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for all prognostic scores with in-hospital, 90-day, and 1-year mortality as outcome.

Results

Of the 171 patients, 170 were males, and grade 1 ACLF in 20 (11.7%), grade 2 in 52 (30.4%), and grade 3 in 99 (57.9%) patients. One hundred and nineteen (69.6%) died in-hospital. The median (IQR) Maddrey’s score, MELD, MELD-Na, ABIC, APACHE II, and CLIF-C ACLF were 87.8 (66.5–123.0), 33.1 (27.6–40.0), 34.4 (29.5–40.0), 8.5 (7.3–9.6), 15 (12–21), and 51.1 (44.1–56.4), respectively. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, independent predictors of in-hospital outcome were presence of hepatic encephalopathy (early HR, 2.078; 95%CI, 1.173–3.682, p?=?0.012 and advanced, HR, 2.330; 95% CI, 1.270–4.276, p?=?0.006), elevated serum creatinine (HR, 1.140; 95% CI, 1.023–1.270, p?=?0.018), and infection at admission (HR, 1.874; 95% CI, 1.160–23.029, p?=?0.010). On comparison of ROC curves, APACHE II and CLIF-C ACLF AUROC were significantly higher than MELD, MELD-Na, DF, and ABIC (p?<?0.05) for predicting in-hospital, 90-day, and 1-year mortality. The AUROC was highest for APACHE II followed by CLIF-C ACLF (Hanley and McNeil, p?=?0.660).

Conclusions

Alcohol-related ACLF has high in-hospital mortality. Among the available prognostic scores, CLIF-C ACLF and APACHE II perform best.

     

Comparison of the prognostic value of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores and traditional models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis

Background and aim

Recently, the European Association for the Study of the Liver – Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium defined two new prognostic scores, according to the presence or absence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and the CLIF-C Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs). We sought to compare their accuracy in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality with some of the existing models: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio index (MESO), Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na.

老年乙肝相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者临床特点及进展危险因素分析

目的:探讨老年乙肝相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者的临床特点及其进展的相关危险因素。方法:选取天津市第三中心医院符合亚太肝病学会慢加急性肝衰竭(APASL-ACLF)诊断标准的老年乙肝相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者168例,选取同期非老年HBV-ACLF患者176例作为对照组,记录其基线及进展情况;同时将老年组根据是...     

External validation and comparison of six prognostic models in a prospective cohort of HBV-ACLF in China

Background. Acute-on-chronic liver failure has high mortality. Currently, robust models for predicting the outcome of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated ACLF are lacking.Aim. To assess and compare the performance of six prevalent models for short- and longterm prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF.Material and methods. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD sodium (MELD-Na), MELD to sodium ratio (MESO), integrated MELD, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and modified CTP (mCTP) were validated in a prospective cohort of 232 HBV-ACLF patients. The six models were evaluated by determining discrimination, calibration and overall performance at 3 months and 5 years.Results. According to the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests and calibration plots, all models could adequately describe the data except CTP at 3 months. Discrimination analysis showed that the iMELD score had the highest AUC of 0.76 with sensitivity of 62.6% and specificity of 80.2% for an optimal cut-off value of 52 at 3 months. It also had the highest AUC of 0.80 with sensitivity of 89.9% and specificity of 48.2% for an optimal cut-off value of 43 at 5 years. The overall performance of iMELD, assessed with Nagelkerke’s R² and the Brier score, was also the best among the six models.Conclusion. Integrated MELD may be the best model to predict short- and long-term prognosis in patients with HBV-ACLF.     

Proposed diagnostic criteria for acute‐on‐chronic liver failure in Japan

To establish diagnostic criteria for acute‐on‐chronic liver failure (ACLF) in Japan, the Intractable Hepato‐Biliary Disease Study Group of Japan undertook a multicenter pilot survey for patients fulfilling the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL), Association for the Study of the Liver–Chronic Liver Failure (EASL‐Clif) Consortium, or Chinese Medical Association (CMA) diagnostic criteria for ACLF. The APASL criteria were suitable for screening Japanese patients with ACLF when patients whose conditions were triggered by gastrointestinal bleeding were included within the disease entity, and the EASL‐Clif Consortium criteria were useful for classifying the severity of the patients’ conditions. Based on these observations, the Study Group proposed the following diagnostic criteria for ACLF in Japan: patients with cirrhosis and a Child–Pugh score of 5–9 should be diagnosed as having ACLF when a deterioration of liver function (serum bilirubin level ≥5.0 mg/dL and prothrombin time value ≤40% of the standardized values and/or international normalization rate ≥1.5) caused by severe liver damage develops within 28 days after acute insults, such as alcohol abuse, bacterial infection, gastrointestinal bleeding, or the exacerbation of underlying liver diseases. The severities of the patients can be classified into four grades depending on the extent of the deterioration in organ functions, including kidney, cerebral, blood coagulation, circulatory and respiratory functions, as well as liver function. The usefulness of these novel criteria should be validated prospectively in a large‐scale cohort in the future.     

Child-Pugh,MELD, and ALBI scores for predicting the in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Objectives: Our study aimed to evaluate the discriminative abilities of Child-Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores in predicting the in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

Methods: Cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted between 2010 January and 2014 June were retrospectively reviewed. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated.

Results: One hundred patients were eligible for the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) criteria. AUROCs of Child-Pugh, MELD, and ALBI scores in predicting the in-hospital mortality was 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52–0.72, P = 0.05), 0.75 (95%CI: 0.65–0.83, P < 0.0001), and 0.53 (95%CI: 0.42–0.63, P = 0.69), respectively. Eighty-eight patients were eligible for the EASL/AASLD criteria. AUROCs of Child-Pugh, MELD, and ALBI scores in predicting the in-hospital mortality were 0.59 (95%CI: 0.48–0.69, P = 0.14), 0.57 (95%CI: 0.46–0.68, P = 0.26), and 0.57 (95%CI: 0.46–0.67, P = 0.29), respectively. There was no significant difference among them.

Conclusion: Child-Pugh, MELD, and ALBI scores might be ineffective in predicting the in-hospital mortality of cirrhosis with ACLF.     

Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Background

The current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West.

Different models in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background and aims. Effective assessing the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease is always challenging. This study aimed to investigate the accuracy of different models in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).Material and methods. We retrospectively evaluated survival of a cohort of patients with at least 3-month follow up. The receiver-operating-characteristic curves (ROC) were drawn for Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification, King’s College Hospital (KCH) criteria, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD combined with serum sodium (Na) concentration (MELDNa), integrated MELD (iMELD) and logistic regression model (LRM).Results. Of the 273 eligible patients, 152 patients (55.7%) died within 3-month follow up. In cirrhotic patients (n = 101), the AUCs of LRM (0.851), MELDNa (0.849), iMELD (0.845) and MELD (0.840) were all significantly higher than those of KCH criteria (0.642) and CTP (0.625) (all p < 0.05), while the differences among LRM, MELD, MELDNa and iMELD were not significant, and the most predictive cutoff value was 0.5176 for LRM, 30 for MELDNa, 47.87 for iMELD and 29 for MELD, respectively. In non-cirrhotic patients (n = 172), the AUC of LRM (0.897) was significantly higher than that of MELDNa (0.776), iMELD (0.768), MELD (0.758), KCH criteria (0.647) and CTP (0.629), respectively (all p < 0.05), and the most predictive cutoff value for LRM was-0.3264.Conclusions. LRM, MELD, MELDNa and iMELD are with similar accuracy in predicting the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients with liver cirrhosis, while LRM is superior to MELD, MELDNa and iMELD in predicting the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients without liver cirrhosis.     

CTP、MELD、MELD—Na、iMELD评分系统对酒精性肝硬化患者短期预后价值的比较

目的比较Child．Turcotte．Pugh评分（CTP评分）、终末期肝病模型（MELD）评分系统、MELD-Na评分系统、integratedMELD（iMELD）评分系统对酒精性失代偿期肝硬化患者短期预后的预测价值。方法分别计算105例酒精性失代偿期肝硬化患者的CTP、MELD、MELD—Na和iMELD分值,采用Kaplan-Meier法比较生存率,运用ROC曲线及曲线下面积（AUC）比较4种评分系统判断酒精性肝硬化患者短期预后的价值。结果105例患者随访3个月内死亡49例,死亡组MELD-Na评分[（19．42±9．32）分]与生存组[（8．79±4．34）分]比较差异有统计学意义（P〈0．01）,死亡组与生存组的CTP、MELD以及iMELD评分比较差异亦有统计学意义。ROC曲线AUC比较,iMELD评分（0．854）〉MELD—Na评分（0．844）〉MELD评分（0．839）〉CTP评分（0．762）。结论CTP、MELD、MELD—Na和iMELD评分均可有效地预测酒精性失代偿期肝硬化患者的短期预后,且MELD、MELD—Na和iMELD评分对短期评估效率优于CTP评分,能更准确地反映病情的轻重,更具有临床应用价值。     

A revised scope in different prognostic models in cirrhotic patients: Current and future perspectives,an Egyptian experience

Background and study aimThe prognosis of cirrhosis is of great interest for liver transplantation and new therapies of related complications. Traditional prognostic models such as Child–Pugh (CP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were developed to predict mortality in decompensated cirrhosis, but lack parameter(s) related to complications. Recently, new models such as creatinine-modified Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CrCTP) and sodium-based MELD variants were developed to improve prognostic accuracy and enhance outcome predictive capability. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic ability of these models and their relation to complications among Egyptian cirrhotic patients to determine the best one and to assess adding new variables to improve the prognostic ability of that model.Patients and methodsA total of 1000 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in a retrospective study; traditional and new prognostic models such as CP, MELD, CrCTP, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD plus sodium (MELD-Na, MELDNa) and MELD:sodium ratio (MESO) were calculated. The predictive abilities of prognostic models were compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 1-year survival rates were evaluated by Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. An index of cirrhosis-related complications was added to reveal the best prognostic model.ResultsUsing AUC, MELD and its sodium variants was significantly better than CP and CrCTP scores in predicting risk of 1-year mortality, where MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) had the highest AUC (0.743). Adding an index of cirrhosis-related complications (C) to MELD-Na creating a new scoring system (MELD-Na-C) improved its prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.753). Kaplan–Meier survival curves predicted increased mortality with higher prognostic scores.ConclusionsAll prognostic models were good predictors of 1-year mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis; however, MELD-Na was the best for outcome prediction. MELD-Na-C was a new model enhancing the predictive accuracy in assessing cirrhotic patients with related complications.