Decoupling and decomposition analysis of residential building carbon emissions from residential income: Evidence from the provincial level in China

Decoupling residential building carbon emissions from residential income has great significance for carbon mitigation and even global climate change. However, the nature of the decoupling relationship between them is still unclear. This study adopts the Tapio decoupling model to explore the decoupling relationship among residential building carbon emissions (TC), per capita carbon emissions (PC), residential carbon intensity (FC) and per capita income (PCI) across 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2015. Then, the Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index (LMDI) model is used to decompose the decoupling of residential building carbon intensity and PCI at the provincial level to determine the main factors determining this relationship. Results show that the main decoupling trend between FC and PCI in 30 provinces transformed from weak decoupling state to strong decoupling state during the whole period, while there is still extensive room for TC and PC to decouple with PCI. PCI has the major inhibiting effect on the decoupling between FC and PCI, while residential energy intensity (EI) has the primarily promoting effect on the decoupling. These findings provide valuable references for international policymakers in formulating precisely targeted energy-saving and carbon-reducing policies to coordinate the relationship between income and carbon emissions, and the results also can be applied to other economies and, to a greater extent, other pollutants.     

Estimating the mitigation potential of the Chinese service sector using embodied carbon emissions accounting

It is universally recognized that direct carbon emissions based on energy consumption and industrial production lead to carbon leakage and inequality. This paper employs input–output analysis (IOA) and the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) to establish an embodied carbon analysis framework to resolve the above externalities. As a typical downstream consumption industry, the service sector has had very little work examining its embodied carbon transfer structure and related climate policies. In this paper, carbon flows of China's service sector between 1997 and 2015 are mapped and a scenario analysis is conducted that accounts for the service sector development plan and carbon emissions reduction targets. The results demonstrate that 13–19% of carbon flows in the Chinese economy are caused by the service sector's demand of other sectors. Controlling the industry scale and carbon intensity of its upstream industries effectively mitigates the dramatic growth of embodied carbon emissions in the service sector. The embodied carbon emissions accounting framework might provide new insights for the definition of emissions reduction responsibility on both a regional and sectoral scale. The further exploration of the service industry from this novel perspective will be helpful in realizing China's overall carbon emissions reduction goals.     

Decomposition of energy consumption and its decoupling with economic growth in the global agricultural industry

The development of mechanization and technology has triggered the growing energy consumption in the agricultural industry. Energy saving in the agriculture industry becomes equally essential with that in the manufacturing, building, and transportation industries. The implementation of reducing energy consumption should be without costing the agricultural production, which is closely related to the food security of human beings. Strong decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth indicates the former decreases while the latter grows, which should be pursued by nations. Therefore, as the first research objective, this study analyzed the decoupling statuses between energy consumption and economic growth in the agricultural industry of 89 countries whose data exist across the period of 2000 to 2016. As a result, only 18 countries have reached strong decoupling. Secondly, this study decomposed agricultural energy consumption in the 89 countries to the effects of a driving factor (i.e., agricultural economic output) and three inhibiting factors (i.e., agricultural land, labor intensity, and energy intensity in descending order). With the identified decoupling statuses, this study provides a substantial understanding of the relationship between agricultural energy consumption and production from a global perspective. Meanwhile, the decomposed factors and corresponding policy implications provide evidence for decision makers of each nation to tailor energy-saving strategies in its agricultural industry.     

Agricultural trade shocks and carbon leakage: Evidence from China's trade shocks to the Belt & Road economies

Existing literature on carbon leakage mostly focused on polluting industries or at the national level. Agriculture is one of the main sources of carbon emissions, however, research on agricultural carbon leakage is still insufficient. To fill this gap, this paper investigates the impact of China's agricultural trade shocks on carbon emissions in a panel of 62 economies along the Belt and Road (B&R) over the period 1990–2017. The results show that China's supply shocks have a significant inhibitory effect on the agricultural carbon emissions of the B&R economies, and this inhibitory effect is very stable and will not be disturbed by other factors. On the contrary, China's demand shocks only have a significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emission intensity of economies with a higher proportion of agriculture, but it will significantly increase the agricultural carbon emissions share in all economies.     

Estimating transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative countries: An integrated approach of modified three-stage epsilon-based measurement model

Transportation systems are vital links for intercountry. However, the transportation industry is associated with high energy consumption and carbon emissions. In this paper, the transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 2005–2017 is estimated by modifying a three-stage epsilon-based measurement model, and the carbon emission reduction potential (CERP) is identified. Based on the results, countries are classified into four categories by comparing a country's TCE and CERP with the average of all BRI countries. The results show that the average TCE of BRI countries is only 0.341, while their average CERP is 0.750, which is tremendous. It also shows that the higher the income levels, the more prone countries are to have a higher TCE. By considering the differences among the countries' environmental factors, TCEs, and the current state or trends of the CERPs, customized low-carbon policies are proposed to increase the TCE and reduce emissions.     

中国水泥行业2011—2022年二氧化碳和大气污染物排放分析

2011—2021年,熟料产量呈波动上升趋势。水泥行业整体生产运行水平不断提高,熟料单条生产线平均规模由43.8万t/条提升至115.3万t/条,熟料单位产品综合能耗下降14.4%,熟料单位产品CO₂排放强度下降6.3%,但CO₂排放总量增加了13.8%,与氮氧化物减排趋势形成较大反差,碳污治理水平差距明显。熟料生产中石灰石分解和煤炭燃烧过程的CO₂排放合计占比为92.9%~93.8%,是CO₂排放的主要来源。由于熟料系数偏高、非碳酸盐原料替代不足、综合能耗仍然较高等原因,安徽等7个熟料产量大的省份的CO₂排放强度高于全国。建议实行碳酸盐熟料产量总量控制,逐步降低熟料应用比例,加快建材市场熟料产品和非碳酸盐原料替代,降低高标号水泥使用比例。应大力推广水泥行业节能降耗增效技术,加快熟料落后产能淘汰。对熟料产量大、碳排放强度高的地区,应结合当地碳排放特点,实行差别化降碳策略。各大气污染防治重点区域应因地施策推进水泥行业减污降碳工作。     

Can buildings sector achieve the carbon mitigation ambitious goal: Case study for a low-carbon demonstration city in China?

China is committed to peaking its carbon emissions by 2030 and become a carbon-neutral society by 2060. The building sector that accounts for over one-third of the total carbon emissions is expected to face a great challenge in helping China achieve this goal. Shenzhen, as a low-carbon pilot city, whether its low-carbon work of urban buildings reaches the target is crucial. An attempt has been made in this study to assess the intensity of carbon emissions and associated reduction efficiency of urban buildings (operation stage) in Shenzhen by using the life cycle assessment method. The results show that the total carbon emissions generated from the buildings' operation stage have increased from 22 million metric tons (Mt) CO₂eq in 2005 to 42 (±13%) Mt. CO₂eq in 2019. Carbon emissions mainly result from the buildings' electricity use (79%), followed by refrigerant release emissions (12%). The energy conservation and carbon emissions reduction intensity in Shenzhen is at the middle level in China, and there is considerable space for improvement. According to scenario-based analysis, the carbon emission of the buildings sector can probably reach its peak by 2025 with the implementation of suitable policies – 5 years earlier than national target by 2030. Overall, this study makes a systemic analysis of the characteristics of urban buildings energy consumption and carbon emissions reduction, which can provide supportings for justifying the effectiveness of low-carbon activities in Shenzhen and beyond.     

Effect of national-level spatial distribution of cities on national transport CO2 emissions

Most research regarding the relationship between cities and transportation carbon emission is focused on intra-city travel, and it has been found that compact patterns tend to emit less carbon. Yet, little is known about the impact of national-level spatial distribution of cities and inter-city transportation on transportation CO₂ emissions. Further, most studies regarding the impact of urbanization on CO₂ emission directly examine the relationship between urbanization rate and CO₂ emission with little consideration of the national spatial pattern of urbanization. This study hypothesizes that the national-level spatial distribution of cities – in a dispersed or polarized pattern – affects national transport CO₂ emissions due to the varying intensity of inter-city transportation. This study uses the Gridded Population of the World v3 and v4 from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) of NASA to examine the national-level spatial distribution of urban agglomerations. It applies the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The analysis shows that, among 60–90% of urbanized countries, spatially dispersed urbanized countries (e.g., countries with many medium-sized cities scattered over the territory) show a lower national transportation CO₂ emission than spatially polarized urbanized countries (e.g., there are only a few large cities). The urban system elasticity of transportation CO₂ emissions is 0.4 or 0.6. That is, if the degree of polarization decreases by 1%, national transportation CO₂ emissions decrease by approximately 0.4–0.6%. This effect is similar to the effect of GDP per capita of around 0.5%. Because it is particularly difficult to disperse people and economic activities across a country once spatial polarization is set, this study's findings have the most significant implications for urbanizing countries. If urbanizing countries adopt national urban policy and territorial plans to form dispersed cities, it could reduce transportation carbon emissions and promote sustainable development. For already urbanized countries, national urban policy development is recommended to promote spatially dispersed rather than polarized national urban systems.     

Assessing the impact of environmental regulation on pollution abatement and collaborative emissions reduction: Micro-evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises

Given the rapid industrialization and urbanization of China, environmental problems have gradually become major constraints that hinder its sustainable economic development. Moreover, China's pollution abatement and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been severely affected by pressures coming from domestic environmental appeals and international environmental diplomacy. By using integrated data from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise and the Chinese Enterprise Environmental Survey and Reporting databases, this study constructs comprehensive indicators of pollutant discharge intensity and carbon emissions index at the enterprise level and uses the panel fixed effect model, Kaya identity, and mediation effect model to assess the effects of environmental regulations on pollution abatement and collaborative emissions reduction from the micro-perspective. Results show that these regulations can abate the pollution emissions of Chinese industrial enterprises and verify the effectiveness of environmental policies. These regulations can also efficiently reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of enterprises through pollution abatement. In other words, environmental regulations facilitate a collaborative emissions reduction of pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from enterprises. Such collaborative emissions reduction effect is also influenced by the energy structure and consumption of enterprises. This paper presents empirical evidence and policy basis for further improving China's environmental regulation policy system and achieving coordinated progress in China's economic development and environmental governance.     

福建省重点地区人为源VOCs排放清单

通过收集福建省福州、厦门、莆田、泉州、漳州和龙岩等重点地区人为源活动水平数据,通过排放因子法进行合理估算,计算2016年福建省重点地区人为源的VOCs排放量。结果表明,2016年福建省重点地区人为源VOCs排放量为47 262.8 t。VOCs排放主要由石油炼制、化工、建筑材料制造、塑料制品和食品饮料加工等行业贡献,占总排放量的62.0%。泉州市是VOCs污染排放的主要贡献城市,占全省重点地区VOCs总排放量的48.9%。     

天津生态城低碳体验中心碳排放及减碳潜力研究

基于绿色建筑评价指标体系,采用eFootprint软件对天津市中新生态城低碳体验中心全生命周期碳排放量和运营阶段采用的主要绿色技术减碳潜力进行计算与分析,结果表明:该建筑运营阶段碳排放量占比最大,为89.74％,其次是物化阶段,为10.08％,废弃阶段仅占比0.18％.同时,太阳能热水技术措施的利用对建筑的减碳效果最好...     

Assessing the impact of emissions trading scheme on low-carbon technological innovation: Evidence from China

A global consensus on carbon emission reductions has been reached for combating climate change. The Chinese government has clearly stated that it is necessary to make full use of market means to improve the level of environmental governance. Emissions trading scheme (ETS) is a typical market means to accelerate low-carbon economic transition. Low-carbon technological innovation is one of the key factors affecting carbon emissions. However, literature on the relationship between ETS and low-carbon technological innovation is relatively scarce at present. This study assesses the effect of pilot ETSs on low-carbon technological innovation, and a difference in differences (DID) model is adopted to analyze China's provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017. The results indicate that China's pilot ETSs can significantly promote low-carbon technological innovation, and changing the window period, PSM-DID and placebo test all verify the robustness of this finding. The dynamic effect test reveals that China's pilot ETSs will gradually increase the effect on low-carbon technological innovation over time. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of China's pilot ETSs on low-carbon technological innovation is more obvious in Guangdong, Hubei, Tianjin and Chongqing. The mechanism analysis suggests that marketization degree and green consumption concept can positively moderate the impact of China's pilot ETSs on low-carbon technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrading plays a positive mediating role between China's pilot ETSs and low-carbon technological innovation. This study is conducive to assessing the policy effectiveness of China's pilot ETSs and provides an empirical evidence for promoting the development of the carbon emissions trading market.     

新疆准东经济技术开发区二氧化碳排放现状与降碳对策研究

通过分析新疆准东经济技术开发区各行业的二氧化碳排放量及排放特征,研究新疆准东经济技术开发区碳达峰碳中和的实现路径。分析结果显示,准东经济技术开发区最主要的二氧化碳排放源是化石燃料燃烧,其对二氧化碳排放量的贡献比例在95.2%以上。能源活动二氧化碳排放量占总排放量的98.5%以上;工业生产过程排放的二氧化碳较少,占比在1.5%以下。新疆准东经济技术开发区主要二氧化碳排放行业是煤电、电解铝、煤化工、硅基新材料。在此基础上,结合各行业特点,提出发展园区循环经济、制定低碳行业标准和培育低碳产业等详细对策。     

Human Capital,Innovation, and Climate Policy: an Integrated Assessment

This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation when climate and educational policies are implemented. Following recent empirical studies, human capital and general purpose research and development (R&D) are introduced in an integrated assessment model used to study the dynamics of climate change mitigation. Our results suggest that climate policy stimulates general purpose as well as clean R&D but reduces the incentive to invest in human capital formation. Both innovation and human capital have a scale effect, which increases pollution, as well as a technique effect, which saves emissions for each unit of output produced. While the energy-saving effect prevails when innovation increases, human capital is pollution-using, also because of the gross complementarity between the labor and energy input. When the role of human capital is the key input in the production of general purpose and energy knowledge is accounted for, the crowding-out of education induced by climate policy is mitigated, though not completely offset. By contrast, a policy mix that combines educational as well as climate objectives offsets the human capital crowding-out, at moderate and short-term costs. Over the long run, the policy mix leads to global welfare gains.     

洛阳市2017年大气氨排放清单的建立及其空间分布特征

基于洛阳市不同类型氨排放源的活动水平数据,主要采取排放因子法构建了2017年洛阳市大气氨排放清单,并以GIS技术为基础进行2 km分辨率的空间网格分配。通过研究得出,2017年洛阳市的大气氨排放量为63.2 kt,排放强度达到4 t/km~2以上,全市主要的氨排放源为畜禽养殖和农田生态系统,排放量分别为43.7 kt和10.4 kt,分别占氨排放总量的69.2%和16.5%。在畜禽养殖源中,肉牛是最大的贡献源,贡献率为30.4%;在农田生态系统中,氮肥施用是最大的贡献源,贡献率为87.7%。各区县中,宜阳县和伊川县排放量最大,共占氨排放总量的32.0%;偃师市、伊川县为排放强度最高;空间分布特征上呈现北部氨排放量大、南部排放量少、在城市区周边氨排放量较突出的现象。     

Does Globalisation Worsen Environmental Quality in Developed Economies?

We examine the causal relationship between globalisation and CO₂ emissions for 25 developed economies in Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania using both time series and panel data techniques, spanning the annual data period of 1970–2014. Because of the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel, we employ Pesaran’s Journal of Applied Econometrics 22, 265–312 (2007) cross-sectional augmented panel unit root (CIPS) test to ascertain unit root properties. The Westerlund Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, 709–748 (2007) cointegration test is also used to ascertain the presence of a long-run association between globalisation and carbon emissions. The long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated using the Pesaran Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1012 (2006) common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimator and the Eberhardt and Teal Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production (2010) augmented mean group (AMG) estimator. The causality between the variables is examined by employing the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Economic Modelling, 29, 1450–1460 (2012) and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose Economic Modelling, 28, 870–876 (2011) Granger causality tests. The empirical results reveal that globalisation increases carbon emissions, and thus, the globalisation-driven carbon emission hypothesis is valid. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using ‘globalisation’ as an economic tool for better long-run environmental policy.     

成都市人为源挥发性有机物排放清单及特征

基于成都市实地调查和环境统计等活动水平数据,采用排放因子法和计算模型等,编制了2014年成都市人为源VOCs排放清单,并完成了空间分配和不确定性分析。成都市人为源VOCs排放量为15.8×10~4t,其中化石燃料固定燃烧源、工艺过程源、溶剂使用源、移动源、储存运输源、其他源排放量分别为0.5×10~4、3.8×10~4、6.0×10~4、4.9×10~4、0.4×10~4、2.2×10~4t,溶剂使用源为最大人为排放源,其次是移动源和工艺过程源。木材加工业为最大工业贡献源,然后依次是医药制造业、非金属矿物制品业、化学原料、化学制品制造业、汽车制造业等。成都市人为源82%的VOCs排放量分布于二、三圈层的工业园区,而中心城区主要为移动源和建筑施工所贡献,其排放分布已随建成区联片发展而形成整体。排放清单活动水平数据可靠性较高,而排放因子存在一定不确定性。     

The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed.     

Examining the uncertainty of carbon emission changes: A systematic approach based on peak simulation and resilience assessment

Efforts to achieve carbon peak is one of the Chinese government's commitments, but the diversity of future development paths leads to the uncertainty of carbon emissions. Based on the carbon peak simulation, this study develops a framework to assess the carbon emission uncertainty, aiming to explore the potential low-carbon paths. The STIRPAT model is firstly introduced to explore the influence of population, economic and technology factors on carbon emissions, which is followed by emission peaks simulation. The resilience theory is then introduced to define the concept of low-carbon resilience (LCR), which refers to the ability to maintain a low level of carbon emissions. The uncertainty of carbon emission changes between different scenarios is identified by considering peaking time, cumulative increase and mitigation process. This study taking 10 Chinese coastal provinces as an example, and results show that all provinces can achieve the target of carbon emission peak in low-emissions scenario, the cumulative growth of carbon emissions is low and can be mitigated over a relatively short term, showing a strong LCR. In high-emissions scenario, Liaoning, Tianjin, Fujian and Guangxi may not have a peak before 2050, the uncertainty of carbon emission changes is relatively high, while Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong show relatively low uncertainty for the clear peaking time. The study also designs intermediate scenario to reduce the uncertainty of carbon emission changes to provide reference for each province's emission reduction path. These findings help to understand carbon uncertainty to reduce the risk of increasing cumulative emissions under the scenario of only focusing on peaking times, and provide a basis for future carbon resilience and sustainable emission reduction policies.     

System Dynamics Modeling and Policy Simulation for Urban Traffic: a Case Study in Beijing

This paper constructs a system dynamics model for simulating the impact of different strategies on urban traffic’s energy consumption and carbon emissions. Based on a case study in Beijing, the model includes three subsystems: (1) urban traffic, (2) population and economy, and (3) energy consumption and carbon emissions. First, the model is used to decompose the impact of different vehicles on energy consumption and carbon emissions. Decomposition results show that private cars have the most significant impact on urban traffic’s energy consumption and carbon emissions; however, total vehicle kilometers traveled by private cars are the smallest among four trip modes. Then, the model is used to simulate different urban traffic policies. Policies are categorized as follows: (a) driving restrictions on vehicle registration numbers, (b) a scheme for vehicle registrations via a lottery system, and (c) development of public transportation infrastructures. Scenario simulation results show that all those measures can reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Though the last strategy (c) contains several delays, its effect is more stable and far-reaching. Finally, some recommendations about easing traffic pressure and reducing traffic emissions are given.