Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

Evolving Water Management Institutions in the Red River Basin

Institutions are the rules and norms that guide societal behavior. As societies evolve—with more diverse economies, increased populations and incomes, and more water scarcity—new and more complex water management institutions need to be developed. This evolution of water management institutions may also be observed across different constituencies, with different societal needs, in the same time period. The Red River of the North basin is particularly well suited for research on water management issues. A key feature of water management in the Red River Basin is the presence of three completely different sets of water law. Minnesota’s water law is based upon riparian rights. North Dakota’s water law is based upon prior appropriation. Manitoba has a system of water allocation that features provincial control. Because the basin is fairly homogeneous in terms of land use and geographic features, its institutional diversity makes this an excellent case study for the analysis of local water institutions. This article reviews the local water management institutions in the Red River Basin and assesses the ongoing institutional evolution of local water management.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Santiam River Basin,Oregon

Future changes in water supply are likely to vary across catchments due to a river basin's sensitivity to climate and land use changes. In the Santiam River Basin (SRB), Oregon, we examined the role elevation, intensity of water demands, and apparent intensity of groundwater interactions, as characteristics that influence sensitivity to climate and land use changes, on the future availability of water resources. In the context of water scarcity, we compared the relative impacts of changes in water supply resulting from climate and land use changes to the impacts of spatially distributed but steady water demand. Results highlight how seasonal runoff responses to climate and land use changes vary across subbasins with differences in hydrogeology, land use, and elevation. Across the entire SRB, water demand exerts the strongest influence on basin sensitivity to water scarcity, regardless of hydrogeology, with the highest demand located in the lower reaches dominated by agricultural and urban land uses. Results also indicate that our catchment with mixed rain‐snow hydrology and with mixed surface‐groundwater may be more sensitive to climate and land use changes, relative to the catchment with snowmelt‐dominated runoff and substantial groundwater interactions. Results highlight the importance of evaluating basin sensitivity to change in planning for planning water resources storage and allocation across basins in variable hydrogeologic settings.     

Assessing Water Quality at Large Geographic Scales: Relations Among Land Use,Water Physicochemistry,Riparian Condition,and Fish Community Structure

Data collected from 172 sites in 20 major river basins between 1993 and 1995 as part of the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program were analyzed to assess relations among basinwide land use (agriculture, forest, urban, range), water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure. A multimetric approach was used to develop regionally referenced indices of fish community and riparian condition. Across large geographic areas, decreased riparian condition was associated with water-quality constituents indicative of nonpoint source inputs—total nitrogen and suspended sediment and basinwide urban land use. Decreased fish community condition was associated with increases in total dissolved solids and rangeland use and decreases in riparian condition and agricultural land use. Fish community condition was relatively high even in areas where agricultural land use was relatively high (>50% of the basin). Although agricultural land use can have deleterious effects on fish communities, the results of this study suggest that other factors also may be important, including practices that regulate the delivery of nutrients, suspended sediments, and total dissolved solids into streams. Across large geographic scales, measures of water physicochemistry may be better indicators of fish community condition than basinwide land use. Whereas numerous studies have indicated that riparian restorations are successful in specific cases, this analysis suggests the universal importance of riparian zones to the maintenance and restoration of diverse fish communities in streams.     

Exploring Persistence in Streamflow Forecasting

In this study, the authors explore three persistence approaches in streamflow forecasting motivated by the need for forecasting model skill evaluation. The authors use streamflow observations with 15 min resolution from the year 2008 to 2017 at 140 United States Geological Survey streamflow gauges monitoring the streams and rivers over the State of Iowa. The spatial scale of the basins ranges from about 7 to 37,000 km². The study explores three approaches: simple persistence, gradient persistence, and anomaly persistence. The study shows that persistence forecasts skill has strong dependence on basin scales and weaker but non‐negligible dependence on geometric properties of the river network for a given basin. Among the three approaches explored, anomaly persistence shows highest skill especially for small basins, under about 500 km². The anomaly persistence can serve as a benchmark for model evaluations considering the effect of basin scales and geometric properties of river network of the basin. This study further reiterates that persistence forecasts are hard‐to‐beat methods for larger basin scales at short to medium forecast range.     

The value of cooperation in resolving international river basin disputes

This paper reviews the phenomenon of international river basins, and concludes that the sharing of river basins between and among countries is the rule rather than the exception for the major river systems of the world. The growth of the nation state with rivers as agreed-upon boundaries, as cease-fire lines and as natural defensive lines has led to the carving up of most river basins around the world. More than 200 river basins, accounting for more than 50% of the land area of the Earth, are shared by two or more countries. When population densities were low, there was plenty of water for all and major conflicts were avoided. With the rapid population and economic growth experienced in the past few decades, conflicts over use of water are becoming more important. It is expected that in the near future such conflicts will become much more severe. The paper reviews the literature on attempts to analyse river basin conflicts and negotiate solutions. Some rudimentary game models are examined, and some tentative conclusions, based upon various game theory concepts of stability, are applied to the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. The paper ends with suggestions on how to plan Pareto-Admissible outcomes for international basins.     

Human impacts on the stream-groundwater exchange zone

Active exchanges of water and dissolved material between the stream and groundwater in many porous sand- and gravel-bed rivers create a dynamic ecotone called the hyporheic zone. Because it lies between two heavily exploited freshwater resources—rivers and groundwater—the hyporheic zone is vulnerable to impacts coming to it through both of these habitats. This review focuses on the direct and indirect effects of human activity on ecosystem functions of the hyporheic zone. River regulation, mining, agriculture, urban, and industrial activities all have the potential to impair interstitial bacterial and invertebrate biota and disrupt the hydrological connections between the hyporheic zone and stream, groundwater, riparian, and floodplain ecosystems. Until recently, our scientific ignorance of hyporheic processes has perhaps excused the inclusion of this ecotone in river management policy. However, this no longer is the case as we become increasingly aware of the central role that the hyporheic zone plays in the maintenance of water quality and as a habitat and refuge for fauna. To fully understand the impacts of human activity on the hyporheic zone, river managers need to work with scientists to conduct long-term studies over large stretches of river. River rehabilitation and protection strategies need to prevent the degradation of linkages between the hyporheic zone and surrounding habitats while ensuring that it remains isolated from toxicants. Strategies that prevent anthropogenic restriction of exchanges may include the periodic release of environmental flows to flush silt and reoxygenate sediments, maintenance of riparian buffers, effective land use practices, and suitable groundwater and surface water extraction policies.     

Modeling the Driving Forces of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes Along the Upper Yangtze River of China

Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China’s upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This article examines the causes of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to support necessary policy actions for more sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, we develop a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by distorted market signals. We believe that these and other findings carry important policy implications.     

The use of terrestrial ecoregions as a regional-scale screen for selecting representative reference sites for water quality monitoring

A process has been developed to select watersheds that are representative of terrestrial ecoregions and that are relatively undisturbed by human activity. Using an existing land classification system at two hierarchical levels of resolution, representative subsets (ecodistricts) of large-scale ecoregions were selected, on the basis of their physiographic, biological, and climatological attributes, to represent the ecoregions. This was achieved using a frequency distribution analysis of existing attribute data and choosing the ecodistrict most closely resembling the most common set of conditions for that ecoregion. Within each ecodistrict, river basins were selected through a best-judgement evaluation of land use, coupled with an assessment of the size and location of each river basin, in order to meet the condition of minimal human impact. Preliminary assessment of water quality data collected from six watersheds selected in this way suggests that the process is effective in targeting regional scale river basins exhibiting the desired characteristics.     

Progress, Challenges and Prospects of Eco-Hydrological Studies in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, China

Eco-hydrological research in arid inland river basins has been a focus of geologists and ecologists as it is crucial for maintaining the sustainable development of socio-economy, particularly in ecologically vulnerable areas. Based on the research work carried out in the Tarim River basin of Xinjiang, northwestern China, this paper summarizes synthetically the climate change and associated responses of water resources in the mountainous area, land use and land cover in the oasis, and plants responding to environmental stresses in the desert area of the river basin. Research gaps, challenges, and future perspectives in the eco-hydrological studies of the Tarim River basin are also discussed.     

How integrated is river basin management?

Land and water management is increasingly focused upon the drainage basin. Thirty-six terms recently used for schemes of “integrated basin management” include reference to the subject or area and to the aims of integrated river basin management, often without allusion to the multiobjective nature. Diversity in usage of terms has occurred because of the involvement of different disciplines, of the increasing coherence of the drainage basin approach, and the problems posed in particular parts of the world. The components included in 21 different approaches are analyzed, and, in addition to showing that components related broadly to water supply, river channel, land, and leisure aspects, it is concluded that there are essentially five interrelated facets of integrated basin management that involved water, channel, land, ecology, and human activity. Two aspects not fully included in many previous schemes concern river channel changes and the dynamic integrity of the fluvial system. To clarify the terminology used, it is suggested that the termcomprehensive river basin management should be used where a wide range of components is involved, whereasintegrated basin management can signify the interactions of components and the dominance of certain components in the particular area.Holistic river basin management is advocated as a term representing an approach that is both fully comprehensive and integrated but also embraces the energetics of the river system and consideration of changes of river channels and of human impacts throughout the river system. The paradigm of working with the river can be extended to one of working with the river in the holistic basin context.     

Representative Landscapes in the Forested Area of Canada

Canada is a large nation with forested ecosystems that occupy over 60% of the national land base, and knowledge of the patterns of Canada’s land cover is important to proper environmental management of this vast resource. To this end, a circa 2000 Landsat-derived land cover map of the forested ecosystems of Canada has created a new window into understanding the composition and configuration of land cover patterns in forested Canada. Strategies for summarizing such large expanses of land cover are increasingly important, as land managers work to study and preserve distinctive areas, as well as to identify representative examples of current land-cover and land-use assemblages. Meanwhile, the development of extremely efficient clustering algorithms has become increasingly important in the world of computer science, in which billions of pieces of information on the internet are continually sifted for meaning for a vast variety of applications. One recently developed clustering algorithm quickly groups large numbers of items of any type in a given data set while simultaneously selecting a representative—or “exemplar”—from each cluster. In this context, the availability of both advanced data processing methods and a nationally available set of landscape metrics presents an opportunity to identify sets of representative landscapes to better understand landscape pattern, variation, and distribution across the forested area of Canada. In this research, we first identify and provide context for a small, interpretable set of exemplar landscapes that objectively represent land cover in each of Canada’s ten forested ecozones. Then, we demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify flagship and satellite long-term study areas inside and outside protected areas in the province of Ontario. These applications aid our understanding of Canada’s forest while augmenting its management toolbox, and may signal a broad range of applications for this versatile approach.     

Perceptions of Community Benefits from Two Wild and Scenic Rivers

Wild and Scenic Rivers provide a host of psychological, social, ecological, and economic benefits to local communities. In this study, we use data collected from recreational users of two Wild and Scenic Rivers to examine perceptions of the benefits provided by the rivers to local communities. Our purposes are (1) to determine if similar perceptions of community benefits exist across the two rivers, (2) to determine if individuals’ proximity to the rivers are related to the benefits they perceive, (3) to determine if individuals’ prior recreation experience on the river is related to variations in perceived benefits, (4) to determine if users’ sociodemographic characteristics are related to perceived community benefits, and (5) to determine if the influence of these characteristics on perceived community benefits is similar across the two resource areas. Perceived benefits were found to be analogous across both rivers as individuals consistently ranked ecological/affective benefits as well as tangible benefits similarly. Recreationists living further from the river ranked ecological and affective benefits as significantly less important than those individuals living closer to the river. Women perceived the community benefits produced by the resource areas to be significantly more important when compared to men. Significant relationships were also found between perceived benefits and recreationists’ previous use of the river, their age, and their level of education. With the exception of resource proximity and prior use history, the effects of user characteristics on perceived community benefits were not statistically different across the two rivers. These findings imply similar patterns of perceived community benefits exist across distinct resource areas and that the relationships between user characteristics and perceived benefits are also similar across the study rivers.     

Water Quality Signals from Rural Land Use and Exurbanization in a Mountain Landscape: What's Clear and What's Confounded?

In mountainous landscapes with high climatic and geomorphic variability, how do rural land uses and exurbanization alter hydrology and water quality? We evaluated effects of rural land use and exurbanization on streamflows, suspended sediment concentrations and loads, specific conductance, and summer water temperatures in 12 streams and rivers within the Upper Little Tennessee River basin in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Eleven streams featured low levels of development (>61% forest cover) but differed in land use patterning, basin size, annual precipitation, and watershed morphology. One urban stream, located within the largest town in the basin, provided the high development comparative endpoint. Even low levels of rural development and exurbanization were associated with substantial increases in suspended sediment concentrations, sediment loads, and summer stream temperature daily maxima and diurnal variation. Observed summer temperature increases were much larger than would be expected due to global climate change over the next century. Specific conductance was idiosyncratic among the smaller streams. These water quality changes were not accompanied by streamflow changes that were discernible amid the high natural variation in precipitation and geomorphology. The water quality findings suggest the need for applying the best management practices, including riparian buffers, to even low levels of rural development.     

Use of Streamflow Data to Estimate Base Flow/Ground‐Water Recharge For Wisconsin1

Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.     

Procedures for ensuring community involvement in multijurisdictional river basins: a comparison of the Murray-Darling and Mekong river basins

Community involvement is fundamental to the management of multijurisdictional river basins but, in practice, is very difficult to achieve. The Murray-Darling basin, in Australia, and the Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia are both cooperatively managed multijurisdictional river basins where the management authorities have expressed an aim of community involvement. In the Murray-Darling basin vigorous efforts have promoted a culture of community consultation throughout each of the state jurisdictions involved, although true participation has not necessarily been achieved. In the Mekong basin the community is much more diverse and the successes so far have been largely at the local level, involving action in subsections of the basin. These case studies suggest that community involvement in the form of community consultation across large multijurisdictional river basins is achievable, but more comprehensive participation is not necessarily possible.     

A GIS Framework for Regional Modeling of Riverine Nitrogen Transport: Case Study,San Antonio and Guadalupe Basins

This article presents a framework for integrating a regional geographic information system (GIS)‐based nitrogen dataset (Texas Anthropogenic Nitrogen Dataset, TX‐ANB) and a GIS‐based river routing model (Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge) to simulate steady‐state riverine total nitrogen (TN) transport in river networks containing thousands of reaches. A two‐year case study was conducted in the San Antonio and Guadalupe basins during dry and wet years (2008 and 2009, respectively). This article investigates TN export in urbanized (San Antonio) vs. rural (Guadalupe) drainage basins and considers the effect of reservoirs on TN transport. Simulated TN export values are within 10 percent of measured export values for selected stations in 2008 and 2009. Results show that in both years the San Antonio basin contributed a larger quantity than the Guadalupe basin of delivered TN to the coastal ocean. The San Antonio basin is affected by urban activities including point sources, associated with the city of San Antonio, in addition to greater agricultural activities. The Guadalupe basin lacks major metropolitan areas and is dominated by rangeland, rather than fertilized agricultural fields. Both basins delivered more TN to coastal waters in 2009 than in 2008. Furthermore, TN removal in the San Antonio and Guadalupe basins is inversely related to stream orders: the higher the order the more TN delivery (or the less TN removal).     

Large-Scale Effects of Timber Harvesting on Stream Systems in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA

Using Basin Area Stream Survey (BASS) data from the United States Forest Service, we evaluated how timber harvesting influenced patterns of variation in physical stream features and regional fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages. Data were collected for three years (1990–1992) from six hydrologically variable streams in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas, USA that were paired by management regime within three drainage basins. Specifically, we used multivariate techniques to partition variability in assemblage structure (taxonomic and trophic) that could be explained by timber harvesting, drainage basin differences, year-to-year variability, and their shared variance components. Most of the variation in fish assemblages was explained by drainage basin differences, and both basin and year-of-sampling influenced macroinvertebrate assemblages. All three factors modeled, including interactions between drainage basins and timber harvesting, influenced variability in physical stream features. Interactions between timber harvesting and drainage basins indicated that differences in physical stream features were important in determining the effects of logging within a basin. The lack of a logging effect on the biota contradicts predictions for these small, hydrologically variable streams. We believe this pattern is related to the large scale of this study and the high levels of natural variability in the streams. Alternatively, there may be time-specific effects we were unable to detect with our sampling design and analyses.     

MODELING NITROGEN TRANSPORT IN THE IPSWICH RIVER BASIN,MASSACHUSETTS, USING A HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM IN FORTRAN (HSPF)1

ABSTRACT: Increased riverine nitrogen (N) fluxes have been strongly correlated with land use changes and are now one of the largest pollution problems in the coastal region of the United States. In the present study, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used to simulate transport of N in the Ipswich River basin in Massachusetts and to evaluate the effect of future land use scenarios on the water quality of the river. Model results show that under a land use change scenario constructed with restrictions from environmental protection laws, where 44 percent of the forest in the basin was converted to urban land, stream nitrate concentrations increased by about 30 percent of the present values. When an extreme land use scenario was used, and 100 percent of the forest was converted to urban land, concentrations doubled in comparison to present values. Model simulations also showed that present stream nitrate concentrations might be four times greater than they were prior to urbanization. While pervious lands with high density residential land use generated runoff with the highest N concentrations in HSPF simulations, the results suggested that denitrification in the riparian zone and wetlands coupled with the hydrology of the basin are likely to control the magnitude of nitrate loads to the aquatic system. The simulation results showed that HSPF can predict the general patterns of inorganic N concentrations in the Ipswich River and tributaries. Nevertheless, HSPF has some difficulty simulating the extreme variability of the observed data throughout the main stem and tributaries, probably because of limitations in the representation of wetlands and riparian zones in the model, where N processes such as denitrification seem to play a major role in controlling the transport of N from the terrestrial system to the river reaches.     

Adverse Effects on Alfeios River Basin and an Integrated Management Framework Based on Sustainability

The Alfeios River, the longest and highest flow-rate river in Peloponnisos, constitutes an important water resource and ecosystem in Greece. In the present study, human activities in the Alfeios River Basin are described, and their impacts on water quality and the ecosystem are analyzed; effects resulting from interventions on river geomorphology between Flokas Dam and the river delta are determined. These actions have caused significant adverse impacts on the infrastructure (the dam, railroad, and road bridges), the level of aquifer water table and area water uses, and the aquatic and riparian ecosystem. A general integrated management strategy is formulated and a master management plan is proposed for resolving management problems in river basins. The plan considers local conditions and national requirements and complies with the European Communities legislation; it would help prevent further basin deterioration, improve water quality, and protect water resources and ecosystems in the area in accordance to sustainable development. The Alfeios River Basin serves as a case study in the development of the plan.Published online Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.