南太平洋和北太平洋年代际振荡与华北盛夏降水的关系及可能物理机制

利用降水、大气环流和海表温度等多种再分析资料和偏相关方法,研究了1951—2007年南太平洋年代际振荡（SPDO）和北太平洋年代际振荡（即PDO,本文称为NPDO）分别与华北盛夏（7—8月）降水在年代际时间尺度上的关系及其可能物理机制.结果表明：在去除SPDO和NPDO的相关性之前,它们与华北盛夏降水的关系均偏弱;但在去除两者相关性之后,SPDO（NPDO）与华北盛夏降水存在显著正（负）相关关系.去除两者相关性之后,当SPDO处于正位相时,热带西北太平洋海温异常显著偏暖,这将在对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸激发出"气旋-反气旋-气旋"的负位相东亚—太平洋型遥相关（EAP）波列,该波列导致东亚夏季风异常增强,有利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,从而使得华北盛夏降水异常偏多,反之,当SPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏少;对NPDO来说,当其处于正位相时,不仅热带西北太平洋异常显著偏冷,而且印度洋大部分海温异常显著偏暖,在两者共同作用下,对流层中下层从热带西太平洋—东亚沿岸出现"反气旋-气旋-反气旋"的正位相EAP波列,这将引起东亚夏季风异常减弱,不利于低纬地区水汽输送至华北地区,华北盛夏降水异常因此减少,反之,当NPDO处于负位相时,华北盛夏降水异常将偏多.     

华北构造区强震短期水氡异常空间图像演化及其前兆判别标志的研究

开展了水氡前兆异常参数提取方法的研究, 并以其提取的结果为输入, 对1985～2002年华北水氡异常参数分布做了全时空扫描, 继而将全部图像与华北地区构造活动性评估的数字化图像进行了叠加, 实现了水氡异常动态扫描与区域构造活动性背景的结合。 在此基础上, 1985年以来华北地区5级以上地震前的水氡短期图像演化情况做了全面分析, 提取出判别异常区的指标以及地震短期异常演化特征, 并提出了华北地区强震前水氡短期前兆的判别标志。     

Circumjacent distribution pattern of the Lungmachian graptolitic black shale (early Silurian) on the Yichang Uplift and its peripheral region

Stratigraphic hiatuses of variable time intervals within the Rhuddanian to early Aeronian (Llandovery, Silurian) are identified in the area bordering East Chongqing, West Hubei and Northwest Hunan in central China. Their distribution suggested the existence of a local uplift, traditionally named the Yichang Uplift. The diachronous nature of the basal black shale of the Lungmachi Formation crossing different belts of this Uplift signifies the various developing stages during the uplifting process. The present paper defines the temporal and spatial distribution pattern of the Yichang Uplift, which might be one of the important controlling factors for the preservation and distribution of the shale gas in this region, as it has been demonstrated that the shale gas exploration is generally less promising in the areas where more of the basal part of the Lungmachi Formation is missing. Therefore, better understanding of the circumjacent distribution pattern developed throughout the uplifting process may provide the important guidance for the shale gas exploration. The present work is a sister study to the published paper, “Stage-progressive distribution pattern of the Lungmachian black graplolitic shales from Guizhou to Chongqing, Central China”. These two studies thus provide a complete Ordovician-Silurian black shale distribution pattern in the Middle and Upper Yangtze, a region with the major shale gas fields in China.     

Spatial patterns of terrestrial net ecosystem productivity in China during 1981-2000

As the third largest country in the world, China has highly variable environmental condition and eco logical pattern in both space and time. Quantification of the spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle in China is of great significance to regional and global carbon budget. In this study, we used a high-resolution climate database and an improved ecosystem process-based model to quantify spatio-temporal pattern and dynamic of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in China and its responses to climate change during 1981 to 2000. The results showed that NEP increased from north to south and from northeast to southwest. Positive NEP (carbon sinks) occurred in the west of Southwest China, southeastern Tibet, Sanjiang Plain, Da Hinggan Mountains and the mid-west of North China. Negative NEP (carbon sources) were mainly found in Central China, the south of Southwest China, the north of Xinjiang, west and north of Inner Mongolia, and parts of North China.From the 1980s to 1990s, the increasing trend of NEP occurred in the middle of Northeast China Plain and the Loess Plateau and decreasing trends mainly occurred in a greater part of Central China. In the study period, natural forests had minimal carbon uptake, while grassland and shrublands accounted for nearly three fourths of the total carbon terrestrial uptakes in China during 1981 -2000.     

华北地下水位强震短期异常演化及前兆判别标志研究

对地下水位地震前兆异常开展了参数提取方法的研究, 并以其提取的结果为输入, 对1984～2002年华北地区地下水位异常参数分布做了全时空扫描, 继而将全部图像与华北地区构造活动性量化评估的数字化图像进行了叠加, 实现了地下水位异常动态扫描与区域构造活动性背景的结合。 在此基础上, 对1985年以来华北地区5级以上地震前的地下水位短期图像演化情况做了全面分析, 提取出了判别异常区的指标以及地震短期异常区的演化特征, 并最终建立了华北地区强震前地下水位短期前兆的判别标志。     

Spatial patterns of terrestrial net ecosystem productivity in China during 1981–2000

As the third largest country in the world, China has highly variable environmental condition and ecological pattern in both space and time. Quantification of the spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle in China is of great significance to regional and global carbon budget. In this study, we used a high-resolution climate database and an improved ecosystem process-based model to quantify spatio-temporal pattern and dynamic of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in China and its responses to climate change during 1981 to 2000. The results showed that NEP increased from north to south and from northeast to southwest. Positive NEP (carbon sinks) occurred in the west of Southwest China, southeastern Tibet, Sanjiang Plain, Da Hinggan Mountains and the mid-west of North China. Negative NEP (carbon sources) were mainly found in Central China, the south of Southwest China, the north of Xinjiang, west and north of Inner Mongolia, and parts of North China. From the 1980s to 1990s, the increasing trend of NEP occurred in the middle of Northeast China Plain and the Loess Plateau and decreasing trends mainly occurred in a greater part of Central China. In the study period, natural forests had minimal carbon uptake, while grassland and shrublands accounted for nearly three fourths of the total carbon terrestrial uptakes in China during 1981–2000. Supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (G2002CB412507), the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.30590384), the “Hundred Talent” Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and K C WONE Education Foundation     

The mantle convection pattern and force source mechanism of recent tectonic movement in China

The Runcorn stress equations and 2–30° harmonic coefficients of the geopotential have been applied to determine the mantle convection pattern beneath China. The pattern is compared with geophysical and geological observations and it is found that the directional change belts of mantle flows coincide with the major fault belts between tectonic units of China. The stress field generated by mantle flows, except in the Tian Shan region, also coincide with the stress field of recent tectonic movement in China. The Tarim and Junggar basins are formed by tensional stresses due to divergent mantle convection currents under northwest China. The formation of the Qinhai-Xizang (Tibet) plateau is due mainly to the compression of the Tarim block and Indian plate, caused by convergent mantle convection currents. The shear-fault belts in central China (100–105°E) are generated by the running change belt of mantle flows, a well-known N-S seismic zone. In eastern China, tensional faults, grabens, lake and sea depressions are related to the eastward displacement of continental lithosphere exerted by eastward dispersal mantle flows under this region.This paper provides new material for further study of the force source mechanism of recent tectonic movement from the viewpoint of mantle convection currents.     

Singular value decomposition analysis of spatial relationships between monthly weather and air pollution index in China

Spatial patterns are important features for understanding regional air quality variability. Statistical analysis tools, such as empirical orthogonal function (EOF), have been extensively used to identify and classify spatial patterns. These tools, however, do not directly reveal the related weather conditions. This study used singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify spatial air pollution index (API) patterns related to meteorological conditions in China, one of world’s regions facing catastrophic air pollution. The monthly API and four meteorological variables (precipitation, surface air temperature, humidity, and wind speed) during 2001–2012 in 42 cities in China were used. The two leading SVD spatial patterns display the API anomalies with the same sign across China and opposite signs between northern and southern China, respectively. The meteorological variables have different relationships with these patterns. For the first pattern, wind speed is the most important. The key regions, where the correlations between the API field and the wind speed’s SVD time series are significant at the 99% confidence level, are found nationwide. Precipitation and air temperature are also important in the southern and northern portions of eastern China, respectively. For the second pattern, the key regions occur mainly in northern China for temperature and humidity and southern China for wind speed. Air humidity has the largest contribution to this pattern. The weather-API relationships characterized by these spatial patterns are useful for selecting factors for statistical air quality prediction models and determining the geographic regions with high prediction skills.     

Response of river channel patterns to the spatially varying suspended sediment concentrations

River channel pattern transformation is dealt with in a broad background of suspended sediment concentration, varying from low, medium, high to hyperconcentration. Based on data from about 100 alluvial rivers in China, suspended sediment transport rate has been plotted against mean annual water discharge, showing that all points can be divided into four belts by three straight lines, as stable braided pattern, meandering pattern with ordinary sediment concentrations, wandering braided pattern, and meandering pattern with hyperconcentration of sediment. This picture of channel pattern transformation can be well explained by the law of the water flow's energy expenditure varying with its sediment concentration. The energy expenditure increases with sediment concentration, reaching a maximum, then declines. Rivers falling in different ranges of sediment concentrations adjust their own energy expenditure in different manners, leading to occurrence of different channel patterns. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49671011).     

Extreme precipitation events in East China and associated moisture transport pathways

Interannual variation of summer precipitation in East China, and frequency of rainstorms during the monsoon season from 1961 to 2010, are analyzed in this study. It is found that the two variables show opposite trends on a decadal time scale: frequency of rainstorms increases significantly after the 1990s, while summer precipitation in East China decreases during the same period. Analysis of the spatial distribution of summer rainstorm frequency from 1961 to 2010 indicates that it decreases from the southeast to the northwest at the east edge of the large-scale topography associated with the plateaus. Spatial distribution of rainstorms with daily rainfall greater than 50 mm is characterized by a “high in the southeast and low in the northwest” pattern, similar to the staircase distribution of the topography. However, the spatial distribution of variation in both summer precipitation and frequency of extreme rainstorms under global warming differs significantly from the three-step staircase topography. It is shown that moisture characteristics of summer precipitation and extreme rainstorms during the monsoon season in East China, including moisture transport pathways, moist flow pattern, and spatial structure of the merging area of moist flows, differ significantly. Areas of frequent rainstorms include the Yangtze River Valley and South China. Column- integrated moisture transport and its spatial structure could be summarized as a “merging” of three branches of intense moist flows from low and middle latitude oceans, and “convergence” of column-integrated moisture fluxes. The merging area for moist flow associated with rainstorms in the high frequency region is located slightly to the south of the monsoonal precipitation or non-rainstorm precipitation, with significantly strong moisture convergence. In addition, the summer moist flow pattern in East China has a great influence on the frequency of extreme rainstorms. Moisture flux vectors in the region of frequent rainstorms correspond to vortical flow pattern. A comparison of moisture flux vectors associated with non-rainstorms and rainstorms indicates that the moist vortex associated with rainstorms is smaller in size and located to the south of the precipitation maximum, while the moist vortex associated with non-rainstorms is larger and located to the north. It is shown that column- integrated moist transport vortices and the structure of moist flux convergence have significant impacts on the north-south oscillation of frequent rainstorm areas in East China, which is synchronized with the maximum vorticity of moisture transport and the minimum of convergence on the decadal time scale. Synthesis of moisture transport pathways and related circulation impacts leads to a conceptual model of moisture flow associated with rainstorms.     

地震前后景观格局的变化研究——以四川都江堰地区为例

景观是保护生态环境的关键所在,考虑地震灾害对景观格局的破坏影响,模拟景观格局在地震作用后的变化情况,对于找到景观设计脆弱点意义重大。提出地震前后景观格局的变化研究,以四川都江堰地区为研究对象,基于遥感图像、ArcGIS软件和Fragstats景观计算软件,以景观单元特征指数、景观格局指数作为指标,分析该地区在2007—2008年地震发生前后景观格局的变化,为该地区的震后重建以及未来的景观规划提供参考。     

中国东部及其邻域岩石圈底界面特征及地震活动性

对布格异常采用小波变换场分离技术得到深部重力异常，利用其他地球物理方法获得较可靠的先验信息作为约束，并采用球谐函数的级数解形式对中国东部及其邻域的深部重力异常进行联合反演，获得了该区岩石圈底界面的展布图像；同时对岩石圈底界面特征和强地震分布特性进行了讨论，指出中国东部及其邻域在地貌分布、各种地球物理场和岩石圈结构等方面都明显地具有分区性，很可能与深部岩石圈底界面的变化有关，而岩石圈底界面的形态的差异将对岩石圈层的运动和一系列地质过程产生重要作用，强地震活动的分布也与深部岩石圈界面形态和构造环境密切相关.     

Spatio-temporal changes and their relationship in water resources and agricultural disasters across China

Changes in monthly streamflow and the potential influences and feedbacks of agricultural activities are investigated. Significant decreases in streamflow are observed in northern China, including the Yellow, Huaihe and Haihe river basins, while in southern China streamflow increases significantly in the Yangtze, Pearl and South river basins. This spatial pattern of changes in streamflow indicates that the imbalance in water resources between northern (dry) and southern (wet) China has increased during past decades. On the one hand, available water resources are a controlling factor determining the expansion of irrigated land and the structure of crop plantation (i.e. rice, wheat, corn or bean); on the other hand, crop planting structure and effective irrigated areas are important determinants of changes in streamflow. The increasing effective irrigation and rice planting areas in northern China may increase water withdrawal from rivers, causing subsequent decreases in streamflow, while in southeastern China, decreasing effective irrigation areas enhance the increases in streamflow.     

Complex behaviour of natural sediment‐carrying streamflows and the geomorphological implications

Based on the data from alluvial rivers in China, the complex mechanical behaviour of sediment‐carrying streamflow of natural rivers has been observed. Channel geometry also exhibits complex behaviour in response to variation in suspended concentration. With the increase in suspended concentration, channel width : depth ratio increases, reaches a maximum and then decreases. The inverse is true for channel sinuosity. When suspended concentration is low, a meandering pattern is dominant. The increase in suspended concentration leads to a transformation from a meandering to a braided pattern. But when the suspended concentration increases further and enters the range of hyperconcentrated flows, the meandering pattern appears. The complex behaviour of channel pattern change may be regarded as a reflection of the complex behaviour of sediment‐carrying streamflows at the river reach scale. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震预测的灰色模糊模型

在灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的基础上,把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测中,建立了地震预测的灰色模糊模型。用此模型对我国川滇、甘宁青、新疆及华北等地区大地震时间序列进行预测检验,结果表明:灰色模糊预测模型比纯灰色系统理论模型要好,因而可在实际地震预测中试用。最后对所得结果及实际应用中需要注意的问题也进行了讨论。     

1997～2005年中国大陆M≥6强震危险区预测检验与总结研究

作者在《中国强震活动图像与地震预报》中运用地震活动图像分析方法,对中国大陆1997~2005年M≥6强震危险性做出了趋势预测,经过预测期内强震实况检验,取得了较好效果。本文对预测方法思路进行了回顾性研究,总结了基本经验和教训,对于提高强震趋势预测研究水平有一定参考价值。     

Pattern Characteristics of Foreshock Sequences

—Earthquake clusterings in both space and time have various forms, in particular, two typical examples are the foreshock sequences and earthquake swarms. Based on the analysis of 8 foreshock sequences in mainland China during 1966–1996, this study concentrates on the pattern characteristics of foreshock sequences. The following pattern characteristics of foreshock sequences have been found (1) the epicenters of foreshock sequences were densely concentrated in space; (2) the focal mechanisms of foreshocks were similar to that of the main shock. Such consistency of focal mechanisms with main shocks did not exist in aftershock series as well as in several earthquake swarms; (3) we found no case in mainland China during the past thirty years that a main shock is preceded by an earthquake clustering with inconsistent focal mechanisms. Finally, we found 5% of the main shocks in mainland China are preceded by foreshock sequences.     

中国大陆东部地区地震活动图像及其含义

定量处理了中国大陆东部地区2000～2002年的中小地震活动图像,分析了地震活动密集值的相对变化及其含义,探讨了其在中期地震预测中的应用。     

中国构造应力场与大震复发周期关系的数值模拟

由古地震资料推算得到的中国境内各活动断裂带上大震复发周期值存在很大差异,对于这种差异可从构造应力产生的弹性应变能分布去探讨其原因。经过对中国及邻区边界条件和受力方式进行较详细的分析后,先以最大主压应力方向为判据,用有限元数值模拟方法反演中国及邻区的板块边界力和区内的构造应力场,然后分析计算应变能随离板块边界的距离增大所呈现的衰减规律,由此换算出要达到相同应变能（一次地震）各地所需的积累时间,并将其与用古地震方法得到的一些已知断层带大震复发周期进行对比。结果表明用应力衰减图象能解释不同地区大震复发周期的显著差异     

安徽地区历史及现代地震活动与断裂活动性关系研究

安徽地区处于华北板块与扬子板块沿着大别造山带的陆一陆碰撞变形带,构造背景复杂多样,断裂十分发育。郯庐断裂带长期控制着两侧的构造格局,大别山东缘的霍山地区多条断裂在晚第四纪有新活动。史料记载表明安徽地区历史地震以中强震为主,最高震级为M6 1/4级。根据区域地震地质、历史地震近年最新研究成果,对第四纪特别是晚第四纪以来的断裂活动习性做出归纳和分类,并分析历史地震、1970年后有仪器记载以来中等强度地震和小地震密集与断裂活动的相关性,为中长期地震预测提供依据。