共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 78 毫秒
1.
基于相空间重构的西太平洋副高指数的动力随机性与复杂性 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,计算了西太平洋副热带高压脊线指数的逐候时间序列,对该时间序列进行了相空间重构,对相空间重构中最佳嵌入维数和延迟时间的选择进行了分析,画出了相应的伪相图,同时还对副高脊线指数吸引子的关联维数进行了计算,得到副高脊线指数关联维数为3.10±0.05.通过动力参数的计算和重构后相空间递归图的分析,讨论了副高活动的动力随机性和复杂性.分析结果对副高系统复杂性和可预报性的认识以及副高动力模型反演有参考意义. 相似文献
2.
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,依据动力系统反演思想,采用遗传算法从1998年实际观测资料中,客观合理地反演重构了副高特征指数与东亚夏季风因子的非线性动力模型,并结合1998年天气实况,讨论了模型中外参数的变化对副高系统平衡态失稳和分岔的影响。从而为副高等难以准确构建动力模型的复杂天气系统的物理机理分析和动力行为讨论,提供了有益的研究思想和方法手段。研究发现,副高指数平衡态的分布和变化与实际副高的中短期异常活动相对应,副高系统由高值稳定平衡态向低值稳定平衡态跳跃的突变行为对应副高的异常南落过程,副高系统由双稳定平衡态向单稳定平衡态并入的分岔行为对应副高"双脊线"并存到消失的过程。 相似文献
3.
4.
影响我国热带气旋活动的气候特征及其与太平洋海温的关系 总被引:12,自引:13,他引:12
基于小波包分解重构方法,利用NCEP/NCAR逐丑再分析资料,讨论了南亚夏季风与季内西太平洋副高活动的关系,提出和定义了用以诊断副高活动的夏季风频域能量判据。诊断结果除佐证了副高已有的一些研究结果和变化规律外,还揭示出副高与季风间一些新的关系特征。 相似文献
5.
6.
基于C-C方法的Lyapunov指数计算 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
识别混沌是对非线性时间序列进行分析,预测,控制的基础,克服已有文献用Lyapunov指数识别混沌时计算Lyapunov指数的不足,用C-C方法计算相空间重构的参数,然后利用混沌的遍历性及定义,提出计算最大Lyapunov指数的新方法,典型实例证明新算法的高效性与正确性。 相似文献
7.
8.
9.
10.
西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)活动规律及其变异的动力学机理问题一直是我国气象学家的重要课题。本文针对现有研究和预测中常用的高度场指数不能全面、准确刻画全球变暖背景下的副高演变特征的缺陷,利用全球大气环流三型分解模型中的流函数能够等价描述副高三维空间几何图像的优势,以500 hPa水平型环流流函数的零等值线为客观标准,给出了副高面积、强度、脊线及西伸脊点指数的新定义,并以2018年夏季副高的短期结构演变特征及其与我国东部地区降水之间的关系研究为例,验证了本文新定义副高指数的客观性与合理性。本文利用全球大气环流三型分解模型中的水平型环流流函数新定义的副高指数,不仅从形态上准确刻画了副高的大尺度涡旋环流特征,而且全球大气环流三型分解的动力学、热力学方程组为进一步利用新指数开展副高异常演变的机理研究提供新的理论工具。 相似文献
11.
In this paper, the attractors of turbulent flows in phase space are reconstructed by the time delay technique using observed data of atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence, which include high resolution temperature, humidity andthree-dimensional wind speed measurements in Gansu province and Beijing, China. The correlation dimensions and largest Lyapunov exponents have been computed. The results indicate that all the largest Lyapunov exponents in different conditions of time, site and atmospheric stability are greater than zero. This means that the atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence system is really chaotic and has appropriate low-dimensional strange attractors whose dimension numbers range from 3 to 7 and vary with different variables (dynamical variables or non-dynamical variables) and atmospheric stability. Turbulent kinetic energy is first applied to reconstruct the attractor of turbulence, and is found to be feasible. 相似文献
12.
不同下垫面大气边界层湍流的混沌特性研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
根据3 种不同观测资料,计算和分析了有关诊断具有耗散结构的系统混沌运动的特征量:功率谱、关联维数、Lyapunov 指数和关联熵。结果表明:尽管下垫面明显不同,大气边界层湍流均为混沌运动。 相似文献
13.
14.
The scalar concentration fluctuations within a plane parallel-to-the-ground surface were measured inside a model canopy composed of densely arrayed rods using the laser-induced fluorescence technique. Two-dimensional scalar concentration spectra were computed and were shown to exhibit an approximate ?3 power-law scaling at wavenumbers larger than those associated with wake production during quiescent instances when von Karman vortex streets dominated the flow. However, during instances when sweeps disrupted the flow, the spectral exponents increased above ?3. The ?3 power-law for these concentration fluctuation spectra measurements was shown to be consistent with a simplified spectral budget for locally homogeneous and isotropic turbulence augmented with a relaxation time scale similarity argument that assumed a constant enstrophy injection rate and wake generation mechanism. Hence, the origin of this ?3 power-law scaling here differs from the well-known ?3 power-law result for the so-called inertial diffusive range derived for the scalar concentration spectrum at small Prandtl numbers. 相似文献
15.
HEIFE绿洲和沙漠地区大气边界层湍流混沌特性研究 总被引:8,自引:1,他引:7
利用“黑河实验”期间张掖、沙漠观测站加强观测期间1991年6月20日09:00至1991年10月2日09:00时段内水平风速的观测资料,计算分析了有关测量混沌的特征量:关联维数。Lyapunov指数和Kolmogorow熵。 相似文献
16.
Daily rainfall and temperature data from 47 locations across Nigeria for the 36-year period 1979–2014 were treated to time series analysis technique to investigate some nonlinear trends in rainfall and temperature data. Some quantifiers such as Lyapunov exponents, correlation dimension, and entropy were obtained for the various locations. Positive Lyapunov exponents were obtained for the time series of mean daily rainfall for all locations in the southern part of Nigeria while negative Lyapunov exponents were obtained for all locations in the Northern part of Nigeria. The mean daily temperature had positive Lyapunov exponent values (0.35–1.6) for all the locations. Attempts were made in reconstructing the phase space of time series of rainfall and temperature. 相似文献
17.
目前在气象和环保部门测量高空风向风速,常采用光学经纬仪跟踪气球的方法。单经纬仪测风或双经纬仪测风同时测垂直气流,以及气球进云后定低空探空仪的高度,均应采用升速已知的气球。气球上升速度W(m/min)取决于气球净举力大小,可由下式确定: 相似文献
18.
19.