基于GIS的上海市死亡人口空间数据库及死亡人数的时空特征

本文应用地理信息系统技术,结合2003年上海市户籍人口死亡数据和气象数据,构建上海市户籍人口死亡数据库,实现数据库的空间查询与统计、动态监测、专题制图等功能。在此数据库基础上,对上海市死亡病例的时空特征进行分析,结果表明:2003年上海市户籍人口死亡人数随时间呈现出冬夏季高、春秋季低的趋势,总体死亡人数市区比郊区高,患心血管类疾病的死亡率市区高于郊区,而患呼吸类疾病的死亡率则郊区高于市区,户籍死亡人数在空间上随着从市区到郊区的距离呈现递减,递减规律可用三次多项式函数很好拟合。     

Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model

Unobserved heterogeneity in mortality risk is pervasive and consequential. Mortality deceleration—the slowing of mortality’s rise with age—has been considered an important window into heterogeneity that otherwise might be impossible to explore. In this article, I argue that deceleration patterns may reveal surprisingly little about the heterogeneity that putatively produces them. I show that even in a very simple model—one that is composed of just two subpopulations with Gompertz mortality—(1) aggregate mortality can decelerate even while a majority of the cohort is frail; (2) multiple decelerations are possible; and (3) mortality selection can produce acceleration as well as deceleration. Simulations show that these patterns are plausible in model cohorts that in the aggregate resemble cohorts in the Human Mortality Database. I argue that these results challenge some conventional heuristics for understanding the relationship between selection and deceleration; undermine certain inferences from deceleration timing to patterns of social inequality; and imply that standard parametric models, assumed to plateau at most once, may sometimes badly misestimate deceleration timing—even by decades.     

Intrinsic and Extrinsic Goals: Their Structure and Relationship to Well-Being in German and U.S. College Students

Aspirations for intrinsic (e.g.,self-acceptance, affiliation, community feeling)versus extrinsic (e.g., financial success, appearance,social recognition) goals were examined in German andU.S. college students. The structure of studentsgoal-systems in terms of goal content was remarkablysimilar in the two cultures, as evidenced byexamination of the ordering of goals. Also, as inpast work in the U.S., German college students whowere especially focused on intrinsic goals had highwell-being, whereas the reverse was true for a focuson extrinsic goals. Some differences between thecultures in terms of specific goals are alsodiscussed.     

广义线性模型在生命表死亡率修匀中的应用

基于GLM在我国国民生命表死亡率修匀中的应用,利用年鉴中全国分年龄、分性别死亡人口状况数据,将年龄和年份作为因子变量,研究死亡率与年龄和年份两因子之间的关系,采用GLM中的泊松回归模型、负二项回归模型对0～89岁的死亡率进行拟合,并对两种模型的拟合效果进行比较。实证分析结果表明,负二项回归模型的拟合效果优于泊松回归模型;进一步将年龄和年份两因子选为数值型变量,对数据进行光滑处理,在负二项回归模型下应用B-样条函数进行修匀。在我国人口死亡率修匀的应用研究中,基于GLM的动态死亡率修匀方法可发现近20年来我国分年龄、分性别死亡率变化规律,具有很强的适用性。由于可获得统计数据的局限性,无法对90岁及以上的死亡率进行修匀,随着人口数据的积累,未来将会在此方面有所改进。     

Assessing Validity and Application Scope of the Intrinsic Estimator Approach to the Age-Period-Cohort Problem

In many different fields, social scientists desire to understand temporal variation associated with age, time period, and cohort membership. Among methods proposed to address the identification problem in age-period-cohort analysis, the intrinsic estimator (IE) is reputed to impose few assumptions and to yield good estimates of the independent effects of age, period, and cohort groups. This article assesses the validity and application scope of IE theoretically and illustrates its properties with simulations. It shows that IE implicitly assumes a constraint on the linear age, period, and cohort effects. This constraint not only depends on the number of age, period, and cohort categories but also has nontrivial implications for estimation. Because this assumption is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to verify in empirical research, IE cannot and should not be used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects.     

Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections

In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, a phenomenon we call “rotation.” We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies. But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. We simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages (0 and 15–19) while making assumptions about changes in rates of decline at other ages. We extend the Lee-Carter method to incorporate this subtle rotation in projection. We suggest that the extended Lee-Carter method could provide plausible projections of the age pattern of mortality for populations, including those that currently have very high life expectancies. Detailed examples are given using data from Japan and the United States.     

全年龄人口死亡模型构建及应用——以江苏省为例

人口死亡特征不仅具有时间和区域属性,同时也具有年龄属性,多重属性决定了人口死亡规律的复杂性。在研究儿童少年期、青壮年期以及中老年期人口死亡模型的基础上,以江苏省为例构建了基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型,并对江苏省人口死亡过程进行了研究。研究表明：基于局部人口死亡模型的全年龄人口死亡模型能够细致刻画人口死亡过程依年龄变化的特点;江苏省儿童少年期、青壮年期和中老年期人口死亡模式可以分别采用威布尔对数线性模型、三次多项式模型和罗吉斯蒂模型来描述;近年来江苏省人口死亡水平不断下降,但各年龄层死亡水平下降特点不尽相同。     

生物标记与中国老年人口健康长寿的关系研究——以左利手标记为例

文章基于中国老年人健康长寿项目1998、2000、2002和2005年4期调查数据,以左利手为例探讨了中国老年人群中与该生物标记相关的因素,分析了该生物标记与健康状况及存活之间的关系.研究显示,在控制了诸多干扰因素下,年龄较低、男性、少数民族、未接受过教育、出生排行小、很少参与社会或闲暇活动、不以大米为主食、居住在北方的老年人口中左利手的比例较高.研究还发现,在控制其他主要干扰因素下,左利手老人在生活自理能力、认知功能和综合健康方面均比右利手老人差.但生存分析表明,左右利手老人之间的短期死亡风险无实质性差异.     

两人群引力模型框架下的中国死亡率预测①--结合美国相应数据

Lee－Carter系列模型是对一个人群的死亡率动态建模和预测的模型。由于中国死亡率抽样数据的质量问题导致模型预测的效果不如国外文献所反映的那么精确。本文在两人群引力模型框架下结合中国和美国同期死亡率数据建模,并将结果与相应的单人群模型比较。研究表明,引力模型与APC模型相结合取得了最好的效果,在此基础上本文预测2025年老年抚养比会急剧上升到23．32％,2030年的婚配男性人口超出女性约2079万,婴幼青少年20年间累计死亡人数约293万。     

A Household-Based Distribution-Sensitive Human Development Index: An Empirical Application to Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru

In measuring human development, one of the main concerns relates to the inclusion of a measure that penalizes inequalities in the distribution of achievements across the population. Using indicators from nationally representative household surveys and census data, this paper proposes a straightforward methodology to estimate a household-based distribution-sensitive human development index aggregated through generalized means. The evidence shows that the losses in human development due to inequality reach up 22, 29 and 57% in Mexico, Peru and Nicaragua, respectively. Among dimensions, the loss in the income index reaches up 61% in Nicaragua, while the education index appears as the most sensitive in the case of Mexico and Peru, with a percentage of loss between 38 and 48%. The importance of household-level calculations is highlighted when we compare the indices computed from the entire distribution with those existing indices computed for quintiles of the distribution, which minimizes the losses due to inequality. Overall, the estimations evidence a higher sensitivity of the index to inequality, and therefore an important space for public action to reduce inequality that could involve positive development returns.     

Delayed Graduation and Overeducation in Italy: A Test of the Human Capital Model Versus the Screening Hypothesis

Social Indicators Research - Exploiting the human capital versus screening hypothesis frameworks, this paper studies the link between delayed graduation and overeducation, and their effect on...     

Lee-Carter死亡率模型的估计与应用——基于中国人口数据的分析

文章选择Lee-Carter死亡率模型对中国人口死亡率数据进行拟合和预测,以探讨Lee-Carter模型在中国的适用性和表现形式。基于1992～2007年中国人口分年龄组死亡率数据,文章对奇异值分解法(SVD)、最小二乘法(OLS)、加权最小二乘法(WLS)和极大似然法(MLE)的拟合结果和预测能力进行了比较分析。结果表明,加权最小二乘法具有最好的拟合和预测效果。文章利用最优的拟合模型,对未来中国人口平均预期寿命进行了预测,并利用Bootstrap方法进行了区间估计。     

Poverty Among The Elderly: An Application of a Collective Consumption Model in Brazil

Social Indicators Research - The growth of the elderly population and changes in household composition raise important questions regarding the level of well-being of the elderly in developing...     

The Contributions of Places to Metropolitan Ethnoracial Diversity and Segregation: Decomposing Change Across Space and Time

Although the trend toward greater ethnoracial diversity in the United States has been documented at a variety of geographic scales, most research tracks diversity one scale at a time. Our study bridges scales, asking how the diversity and segregation patterns of metropolitan areas are influenced by shifts in the racial/ethnic composition of their constituent places. Drawing on 1980–2010 decennial census data, we use a new visual tool to compare the distributions of place diversity for 50 U.S. metro areas over three decades. We also undertake a decomposition analysis of segregation within these areas to evaluate hypotheses about the roles of different types of places in ethnoracial change. The decomposition indicates that although principal cities continue to shape the overall diversity of metro areas, their relative impact has declined since 1980. Inner suburbs have experienced substantial increases in diversity during the same period. Places with large white majorities now contribute more to overall metropolitan diversity than in the past. In contrast, majority black and majority Hispanic places contribute less to metropolitan diversity than in the past. The complexity of the patterns we observe is underscored through an inspection of two featured metropolises: Chicago and Dallas.     

异质性、家庭支持与中国高龄老人的死亡率:虚弱度模型的应用

本文通过虚弱度模型展示了中国高龄老人死亡率模式中的个体异质性,女性内部异质性远大于男性。在控制未观测异质性后,结果显示:男性和女性高龄老人的基准死亡率呈现交叉效应;配偶对男性高龄老人的存活存在显著的保护作用,已婚有偶的男性高龄老人死亡风险较之无偶的低22%(=1-e-0.253);除日常照料和精神慰藉外,子女对烟酒嗜好等不健康生活方式的监督,对男性高龄老人的存活也可能存在不可替代的保护作用。女性高龄老人在社会支持网络依赖、社会经济地位与健康生活方式上迥异于男性,使得配偶和子女以上支持作用并不显著。     

人力资本对全要素生产率增长的外部性检验——基于我国省际动态面板模型

本文基于我国省际层面1990～2009年经验数据,应用动态面板数据模型估计,考察总量人力资本和异质型人力资本(即具有初等教育、中等教育和高等教育水平的从业人员)对我国全要素生产率增长的外部效应(暂不考虑教育的非货币化收益)。结果表明:总量人力资本存量即期对全要素生产率产生显著为负的外部性,而滞后多期则呈现出正外部溢出效应;不同类型人力资本的即期外部性也是显著为负,不过,初等教育对我国全要素生产率的提高作用始终不明显,中等、高等教育在滞后第三期才具有显著的正外部性。