Time delays,competitive interdependence,and firm performance

Research summary: Competitors' experiences of prior interactions shape patterns of rivalry over time. However, mechanisms that influence learning from competitive experience remain largely unexamined. We develop a computational model of dyadic rivalry to examine how time delays in competitors' feedback influence their learning. Time delays are inevitable because the process of executing competitive moves takes time, and the market's responses unfold gradually. We analyze how these lags impact learning and, subsequently, firms' competitive behavior, industry profits, and performance heterogeneity. In line with the extant learning literature, our findings reveal that time delays hinder learning from experience. However, this counterintuitively increases rivals' profits by reducing their investments in costly head‐to‐head competition. Time delays also engender performance heterogeneity by causing rivals' paths of competitive behavior to diverge. Managerial summary: While competitive actions such as new product launches, geographical expansion, and marketing campaigns require up‐front resource commitments, the potential lift in profits takes time to materialize. This time delay, combined with uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of competitive actions, makes it difficult for managers to learn reliably from previous investment decisions. This results in systematic underinvestment in competitive actions. The severity of the underinvestment grows as the time delay between an investment and its positive results increases. Counterintuitively, however, competitors' collective underinvestment increases profit‐making opportunities. In industries with large time delays, companies that do invest in competitive actions are likely to enjoy high returns on investment. It is also likely that rivals' paths of competitive behavior bifurcate. Together, these mechanisms generate large differences in competitors' profits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Triggers for virtual customer integration in the development of medical equipment — From a manufacturer and a user's perspective

Virtual customer integration (VCI) involves customers throughout all stages of the new product development process. Firms across industries have started to experiment with virtual user integration and expect to utilize their knowledge, creativity, and judgment. However, little research exists that looks at the motivations of customers and managers to engage in virtual product development projects. In this paper we try to identify the triggers for virtual customer integration (VCI) from the manager's as well as from the customer's perspective. Using Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behavior we aim at explaining managers' motivation for the adoption of VCI based on a sample of 104 managers engaged in the product development process of manufacturing firms of medical technology. Drawing on motive research, we test six categories of customer motivations to engage in VCI projects on a sample of 105 users of medical technology. The results show that for mangers subjective norms and attitude predict the intention to use VCI. For customers, interest in innovation and product improvement are the most important drivers, whereas monetary compensation and prestige are not significant, and surprisingly the desire to help people even has a negative impact on the participation of VCI.     

Churn analysis for an Iranian mobile operator

To survive in the challenging environment of a global market, organizations must recognize and analyze customer attitudes. To be competitive, organizations must recognize and forecast customer preferences and behaviors to maximize customer retention before their rivals do so. This research identifies factors that affect customer churn, the single most valuable of an organization's assets. One year's data from call log files relating to 3150 customers were selected randomly from an Iranian mobile operator call-center database. Binomial Logistic Regression was the method of analysis used in this research. The results of this research indicate that a customer's dissatisfaction, their amount of service usage and certain demographic characteristics have the most influence on their decision to remain or churn. The results also imply that customer status (active or inactive status) mediates the relationship between churn and the cause of churn. The Iranian government's current plan to privatize the telecommunications industry without deregulation leads to a non-square competition environment. Deregulation in favor of delegating more authorities of customer care is necessary in order to develop a square private competition environment in the Iranian mobile telecommunications industry.     

A New Method for Estimating Market Power with an Application to Norwegian Sawmilling

In this paper we apply an innovative econometric tool to estimate mark-ups in an output market. The contribution of the paper is in the novel use of the stochastic frontier approach that is widely used to estimate efficiency. We show that this method, which we call the stochastic frontier estimator of market power, can be used both in the dual cost function framework and in the primal framework, and that mark-ups can be estimated with or without constant returns to scale. We apply this method to the Norwegian sawmilling industry, 1974–91.     

Does competition increase quality? Evidence from the US airline industry

This paper studies the impact of competition on quality provision in the US airline industry exploiting a novel source of exogenous variation in competition. While mergers among market incumbents may stifle competition, a merger may increase the probability of entry if the merging airlines were not operating prior to merger in the market but each of them had presence at different route endpoints. We find non-merging incumbent airlines increase their flight frequency upon entry threat and accommodate entry of the newly merged airline by lowering flight frequency upon entry. While non-merging incumbents reduced arrival delays only upon entry of the newly merged airline, we find that incumbents decrease their cancelation rates and departure delays both upon merger announcement and entry of the newly merged airline. Our evidence suggests an increase in competition may increase consumer surplus, because non-merging incumbents increase quality and convenience, while keeping their prices unchanged.     

Customer and retailer rebates under risk aversion

In a supply chain setting, we analyze a manufacturer's customer and retailer rebates, which are sales incentives offered to the end buyers and retailers, respectively. The performance of both rebates is influenced by the retailer's objective and response to the promotion due to his intermediary position in the channel. Earlier studies investigating rebates in distribution channels have traditionally assumed that the retailer is risk neutral with the objective of maximizing expected profits. In our paper, we consider a risk-averse retailer. We formally model risk aversion by adopting the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) decision criterion. Using a stochastic and (effective) price dependent demand, we analyze the manufacturer's rebate amount decisions and the retailer's joint inventory and pricing decisions in a game theoretical framework. We provide several structural properties of the objective functions and show monotonicity of the retailer's decisions in the degree of risk aversion. For the case of retailer rebates, we characterize the unique equilibrium, and for the case of customer rebates, we prove the existence of an equilibrium. Using numerical examples, we provide further insights on the impact of risk aversion. For example, given an exogenous wholesale price, we observe a threshold value on the retailer's risk-aversion parameter below (above) which the manufacturer is better off with retailer rebates (customer rebates); implying that the manufacturer's preferred rebate type can be different depending on whether the retailer is risk neutral or sufficiently risk averse.     

The virtual customer

Communication and information technologies are adding new capabilities for rapid and inexpensive customer input to all stages of the product development (PD) process. In this article we review six web‐based methods of customer input as examples of the improved Internet capabilities of communication, conceptualization, and computation. For each method we give examples of user‐interfaces, initial applications, and validity tests. We critique the applicability of the methods for use in the various stages of PD and discuss how they complement existing methods. For example, during the fuzzy front end of PD the information pump enables customers to interact with each other in a web‐based game that provides incentives for truth‐telling and thinking hard, thus providing new ways for customers to verbalize the product features that are important to them. Fast polyhedral adaptive conjoint estimation enables PD teams to screen larger numbers of product features inexpensively to identify and measure the importance of the most promising features for further development. Meanwhile, interactive web‐based conjoint analysis interfaces are moving this proven set of methods to the web while exploiting new capabilities to present products, features, product use, and marketing elements in streaming multimedia representations. User design exploits the interactivity of the web to enable users to design their own virtual products thus enabling the PD team to understand complex feature interactions and enabling customers to learn their own preferences for new products. These methods can be valuable for identifying opportunities, improving the design and engineering of products, and testing ideas and concepts much earlier in the process when less time and money is at risk. As products move toward pretesting and testing, virtual concept testing on the web enables PD teams to test concepts without actually building the product. Further, by combining virtual concepts and the ability of customers to interact with one another in a stock‐market‐like game, securities trading of concepts provides a novel way to identify winning concepts. Prototypes of all six methods are available and have been tested with real products and real customers. These tests demonstrate reliability for web‐based conjoint analysis, polyhedral methods, virtual concept testing, and stock‐market‐like trading; external validity for web‐based conjoint analysis and polyhedral methods; and consistency for web‐based conjoint analysis versus user design. We report on these tests, commercial applications, and other evaluations. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.     

Alliances and other things

Every time we talk about alliances it is important to clarify what are we talking about. Obviously an acquisition is not an alliance. A McDonalds franchise is not an alliance. A contract to supply tyres for the new VW Beetle is not an alliance. We consider alliances to be other types of agreements between companies, affecting parts of their operations on a permanent or temporary basis, different from the conventional customer/supplier relationships, generally involving sharing resources in some way, while not preventing competition. We will refer in this presentation to alliances as situations where the partners do not individually have the necessary resources to accomplish whatever is their objective and then, they decide to combine their efforts sharing some of their resources. For example, if six airlines, including United and Lufthansa form the so-called Star Alliance, or if Coca-Cola and Nestle decide to get together to produce, sell and distribute Nestea, these are alliances. However, if General Mills decides to distribute its breakfast cereal in China through Nestle or Jaguar and Louis Vuitton decide to sponsor together a golf tournament, these are a conventional distribution agreement, and a conventional joint promotion. If Philips and Sony agreed in some way on the standards for the minidisk, or the high definition TV, things that I do not imply, I am not sure we could call this an alliance, I would call it just a non-competing agreement. Perhaps with a lot of sense, but, at the end, a non-competing agreement.     

Virtual Customer Environments: Testing a Model of Voluntary Participation in Value Co-creation Activities

An increasing number of firms are hosting virtual customer environments (VCEs) to involve their customers in product development and product support activities. While the benefits to companies from hosting such VCEs are clear, another closely related issue has received far less attention: Why do customers participate voluntarily in value cocreation (here, product support) activities in such virtual customer environments? This study seeks to answer this question by developing and testing a conceptual model that draws on the uses and gratifications approach to consider an integrated set of four benefits that customers gain from their interactions in VCEs. The research model also incorporates the interaction‐based antecedents of these customer benefits. Drawing on concepts and insights from the areas of computer‐mediated communication and brand communities, the key characteristics of customers' interactions in the VCE are identified and related to the aforementioned four types of benefits. The study hypotheses are tested using data collected from customer participants of the VCEs of two firms, Microsoft and IBM. The dependent variable, customers' actual participation in the VCE, is operationalized as a time‐lagged variable, and the data for this are sourced from the Netscan database. Results offer strong support for the model and indicate that customers' participation in product support activities in a VCE is motivated not just by their “citizenship” or norm‐related behavior but stems primarily from their beliefs concerning the benefits of engaging in such activities. Results also show the impact of key interaction characteristics of VCEs on such perceived benefits and imply the need for firms to carefully design their VCEs to enhance customers' perceptions regarding potential benefits. The research model and the findings hold important implications for research and practice in customer coinnovation and product development. The model provides the basis for identifying the appropriate set of VCE design features. Companies can test the efficacy of their VCE design features by focusing on how such features augment the four types of benefits discussed and thereby ensure continued customer participation. The study findings also hold broader implications for practice in the customer relationship management area, particularly with regard to the potential to combine customers' VCE interactions with appropriate offline product‐related activities and to view the VCE as an integral element of the firm's overall customer relationship management initiative.     

An integrated distribution routing model in multi-supply center system

A distribution routing problem with time constraint is one of the important problems in distribution and supply center management. This research is concerned with an integrated distribution routing problem for multi-supply centers based on improved genetic algorithm and graphical user interface (GUI)-type programming. In this research, we proposed a method based on a three-step approach: in step 1 a sector clustering model is developed to transfer the multi-supply center problem to single supply center problems which are easier to be solved; in step 2 we developed a vehicle routing model with time constraints and in step 3 we developed a GA-TSP model which can improve the vehicle routing schedules. The objective of the problem is to minimize the logistic cost for a set of customers without being tardy or exceeding the capacity or travel time of the vehicles. For computational purpose, we developed a GUI-type computer program according to the proposed methods and the sample outputs show that the proposed method is very effective on a set of standard test problems, and it could be potentially useful in solving the distribution routing problems.     

The Total Product Design Concept and an Application to the Auto Market

As traditional sources of competitive advantage shrink, firms seek new ones. One such source of competitive advantage is product design because of its effects on customer experience. To understand the role and impact of product design on customer experience, we propose an integrated, customer‐based framework for product design that we call the total product design concept (TPDC). We define a product's TPDC as consisting of three elements, namely functionality, aesthetics, and meaning, each of which arises from more elemental product characteristics. We elaborate on the structure of a product's TPDC, its three elements, and the links between those elements and customers' experience with a product. We provide an illustrative application of the TPDC using data from the U.S. auto market. The findings from that application support the proposed three‐dimensional view of the TPDC, and demonstrate heterogeneity both in the TPDC's structure and its effects on customer satisfaction. For all three segments, functionality enhances customer satisfaction. For the largest segment of customers, functionality is the most important factor, followed by aesthetics. For the other two segments, customer satisfaction is most influenced by the meaning element of TPDC. We discuss the implications of these findings for the auto industry in particular, and the potential use of the TPDC more generally.     

Customer solutions in the capital goods industry: Examining the impact of the buying center

Based on in-depth interviews with customers, this study explores the customers' view of relevant solution criteria in the capital goods industry. Our research examines (1) whether the initial four-process conceptualization of customer solutions also holds for this industry, or whether it has to be extended and (2) which criteria of the customer solution matter the most for each member of the buying center. This study reveals that customers purchasing solutions in the capital goods industry expect the provider to be excellent in terms of six customer/supplier relational processes, namely (1) customer requirements definition, (2) customization and integration of goods and/or services, (3) their deployment, (4) post-deployment support, (5) signaling activities, and (6) inter-process management. Moreover, we found that the relevance of these processes differs across the most important members of the buying center (users, buyers, and deciders) due to their specific organizational function.     

Customer churn analysis: Churn determinants and mediation effects of partial defection in the Korean mobile telecommunications service industry

Retaining customers is one of the most critical challenges in the maturing mobile telecommunications service industry. Using customer transaction and billing data, this study investigates determinants of customer churn in the Korean mobile telecommunications service market. Results indicate that call quality-related factors influence customer churn; however, customers participating in membership card programs are also more likely to churn, which raises questions about program effectiveness. Furthermore, heavy users also tend to churn. In order to analyze partial and total defection, this study defines changes in a customer's status from active use (using the service on a regular basis) to non-use (deciding not to use it temporarily without having churned yet) or suspended (being suspended by the service provider) as partial defection and from active use to churn as total defection. Thus, mediating effects of a customer's partial defection on the relationship between the churn determinants and total defection are analyzed and their implications are discussed. Results indicate that some churn determinants influence customer churn, either directly or indirectly through a customer's status change, or both; therefore, a customer's status change explains the relationship between churn determinants and the probability of churn.     

A dynamic model of supplier–customer product development collaboration strategies

This study examines transitions between different types of product development collaboration in supplier–customer settings, the events that trigger such transitions, and the emerging requirements for suppliers. The current study contributes to the literature regarding supplier and customer involvement by combining previously discovered types of collaboration into a dynamic model that describes these different types as alternative modes of collaboration that can be implemented in a relationship. Transitions between different types of collaboration are identified in a longitudinal case study. Three of the four transitions identified took place in the same dyad, which demonstrates that it is possible to change the type of collaboration without losing the advantages of a long-term relationship with a customer. The most radical change in collaboration—the change from supplier involvement to customer involvement—involved temporarily discontinuing the original relationship, which indicates that this transition incorporates the highest risk of relationship termination. By offering a dynamic model for product development collaboration, this study is the first to analyze changes between different types of customer–supplier product development collaboration from a supplier's perspective. The dynamic view is important for companies seeking to take advantage of their long-term relationships instead of starting new ones when new requirements for product development collaboration emerge.     

Logistics scheduling to minimize inventory and transport costs

We study a logistics scheduling problem where a manufacturer receives raw materials from a supplier, manufactures products in a factory, and delivers the finished products to a customer. The supplier, factory and customer are located at three different sites. The objective is to minimize the sum of work-in-process inventory cost and transport cost, which includes both supply and delivery costs. For the special case of the problem where all the jobs have identical processing times, we show that the inventory cost function can be unified into a common expression for various batching schemes. Based on this characteristic and other optimal properties, we develop an O(n) algorithm to solve this case. For the general problem, we examine several special cases, identify their optimal properties, and develop polynomial-time algorithms to solve them optimally.     

Managing B2B customer churn,retention and profitability

It is now widely accepted that firms should direct more effort into retaining existing customers than to attracting new ones. To achieve this, customers likely to defect need to be identified so that they can be approached with tailored incentives or other bespoke retention offers. Such strategies call for predictive models capable of identifying customers with higher probabilities of defecting in the relatively near future. A review of the extant literature on customer churn models reveals that although several predictive models have been developed to model churn in B2C contexts, the B2B context in general, and non-contractual settings in particular, have received less attention in this regard. Therefore, to address these gaps, this study proposes a data-mining approach to model non-contractual customer churn in B2B contexts. Several modeling techniques are compared in terms of their ability to predict true churners. The best performing data-mining technique (boosting) is then applied to develop a profit maximizing retention campaign. Results confirm that the model driven approach to churn prediction and developing retention strategies outperforms commonly used managerial heuristics.     

Experts,Information, Reviews,and Coordination: Evidence on How Prizes Affect Sales*

Exploiting the award process, we implement a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of winning France's main literary prize, the Goncourt. It increases sales, especially for books that sold fewer copies before the announcement, the number of reviews on Amazon, and the probability of them being negative. The effect is partly driven by an increase in word of mouth. Those findings are consistent with a model where the prize provides information on the existence of a book and acts as a quality signal and a coordination device but prompts consumers to read books that are far from their tastes.     

An inventory reservation problem with nesting and fill rate-based performance measures

In many inventory settings companies wish to provide customer-differentiated service levels. These may, for example, be motivated by differences in the perceived customer lifetime value or by specific contractual agreements. One approach to provide differentiated service levels is to reserve some portion of the available inventory exclusively for specific customer classes. Existing approaches to inventory reservation are typically based on the assumption that a company can assign a customer specific revenue or penalty cost to any order or unit of demand filled or unfulfilled. In practice, however, it is usually extremely difficult to accurately estimate (especially long term) monetary implications of meeting or not meeting customer demand and corresponding service level requirements. The research presented in this paper addresses the problem of setting appropriate inventory reservations for different customer classes based on fill rate-based performance measures. We model a single period inventory reservation problem with two customer classes and nesting. We develop exact expressions for two conflicting performance measures: (1) the expected fill rate of high priority customers and (2) the expected loss in the system fill rate induced by inventory reservation. With these expressions a decision maker can analyze the tradeoff between the loss in overall system performance and the higher expected fill rates for prioritized customers. We provide analytical insights into the effects of nesting and the impact of relevant problem parameters on these two performance measures. The analytical insights are illustrated and highlighted through a set of numerical examples. Although we limit our analysis to a single period inventory reservation problem, we expect that our results can be utilized in a wide range of problem settings in which a decision maker has to ration a perishable resource among different classes of customers.     

Attitudes and behaviours of key account managers: Are they really any different to senior sales professionals?

This study investigates the range of attitudes and behaviours exhibited by Key Account Managers (KAMs) in their roles as customer relationship managers. Specifically, we test whether KAMs exhibit different behaviours and attitudes towards relationship management compared to other sales professionals based on a range of assumptions currently theorized but untested in the Key Account Management (KAM) literature. Utilizing the existing theoretical models of a KAM role we identify six major areas of relational behaviour assumed in the literature to separate the KAM from the sales professional. Drawing on a cross sectional quantitative study of 10 organizations and 409 key account managers, sales managers, and senior sales executives we explore goal orientation, planning, customer embeddedness, strategic prioritization, adaptability and internal management behaviours of our groups and find that, in certain managerial tasks, KAMs do indeed exhibit many of the different behaviours and attitudes predicted in the literature. However, in many customer-facing, goal orientated and revenue generating activities, contrary to expectations, they display similar attitudes and behaviours to those in senior sales roles. This challenges the way that the KAM role has previously been conceptualized. Our findings raise a potential issue for senior managers, since KAMs' unexpectedly short term orientation may lead to insufficient consideration of the strategic consequences of their decisions for these key customer relationships.