Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

The future of oil and bioethanol in Brazil

This work compares the return on investments (ROI) of oil versus biofuels in Brazil. Although several renewable energy sources might displace oil, the country's forte is sugarcane biofuels. In our analysis we carry out simplified benefit–cost analyses of producing oil fields, pre-salt oil fields (without and with enhanced oil recovery), a business as the usual ethanol scenario, and a high ethanol scenario. Excluding the ROI from existing oil fields, which is the highest, when the discount rate is 4% or more, the ROI of the high ethanol scenario is greater than that of the ROI of pre-salt oil. Considering a US$40/t CO₂ tax, the high ethanol scenario's ROI is greater than the pre-salt oil's ROI if a discount rate of 2% or more is adopted. Moreover, the high ethanol scenario throughput up to 2070 compares to 97% of the pre-salt oil reserve without EOR, and demands 78% of its investment. Pre-salt oil production declines beyond 2042 when the country might become a net oil importer. In contrast, ethanol production reaches 2.1 million boe per day, and another 0.9 million boe of fossil demand is displaced through bioelectricity, yielding a total of 3 million boe (62% of the country's oil demand).     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?

Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500 TWh in 2020 and 9730 TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970 GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.     

China's natural gas: Resources,production and its impacts

In order to achieve energy consumption targets, and subsequently reduce carbon emissions, China is working on energy strategies and policies aimed at actively increasing the consumption of natural gas—the lowest carbon energy of the fossil fuels, and to enhance the proportion of gas in total primary energy consumption. To do this, it is a necessary prerequisite that China must have access to adequate gas resources and production to meet demand. This paper shows that the availability of domestic gas resources are overestimated by China's authorities due to differences in classification and definitions of gas resources/reserves between China and those accepted internationally. Based on official gas resource figures, China's gas production remains low with respect to the projected demand, and will only be 164.6 bcm in 2020, far lower than the 375 bcm of forecast demand. The gap between gas production and demand will reach 210.4 bcm by 2020. Existing plans for the importation of gas and the development of unconventional gas will not close this gap in the next 10 years, and this situation will therefore present a severe challenge to China's gas security, achievement of targets in improving energy consumption structure and reducing carbon emissions.     

Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland

This paper develops a system dynamics model of Iceland׳s energy sector (UniSyD_IS) that is based on the UniSyD_NZ model of New Zealand׳s energy economy. The model focuses on the energy supply sector with endogenous representation of road transport energy demand. Equilibrium interactions are performed across electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and road transport sectors. Possible transition paths toward a low-carbon transport in Iceland are explored with implications for fuel demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated costs. The consumer sector simulates the long-term evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumer preferences. Through different scenarios, the influences of four fundamental driving factors are examined. The factors are oil price, carbon tax, fuel supply-push, and government incentives. The results show that changes in travel demand, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and efficiency improvements can support feasible transition paths to achieve sufficient reduction in GHG for both 4 °C and 2 °C climate scenarios of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives study. Initial investment in supply infrastructure for alternative fuels will not only mitigate GHG emissions, but also could provide long-term economic benefits through fuel cost saving for consumers and reduced fuel import costs for government.     

Car dieselization: A solution to China's energy security?

Recently, there is a renewed interest in car dieselization in China to address the challenge of oil security. We developed an econometric model to estimate the vehicle fuels and crude oil demands. The results indicate that if the average travel distance of cars is maintained at the level of 2010–16,000 km/yr, and if the distillation products mix of the refineries remains unchanged, China's crude oil demand in 2020 will reach 1060 million tonnes (Mt), which also results in an excess supply of 107 Mt of diesel. A new balance of diesel supply and demand can be reached and crude oil demand can be significantly reduced to 840 Mt by improving the production ratio between diesel and gasoline on the supply side and promoting passenger vehicle dieselization on the demand side. The crude oil demand will be reduced to 810 Mt in 2020, if the vehicle travel distance gradually drops to 12,000 km/yr. If so, dieselization will provide a rather limited added value—only 6% further oil saving by 2020. Dieselization is not a silver bullet but it depends on a series of key factors: growth rate of gross domestic products (GDP), vehicle sales, and vehicle annual travel distance.     

Heat and power demands in babassu palm oil extraction industry in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to analyze the energy use profile of the babassu (Orbignya ssp—Palmae) oil extraction industry in Brazil in order to establish the basis for a cogeneration study of this important part of the Brazilian Northeast region economy, which is still ignored by energetic biomass studies. The work used information from new equipment suppliers that was analyzed against field information from operating units. The data was used to establish a basis for the thermal and mechanical energy consumption for the two main basic unit profiles for the sector: a simple one with just oil extraction and the other, more vertically integrated with other secondary by-products. For the energetic demand taken from the only oil extraction unit profile study, the minimum pressure for the steam process was estimated at 1.4 MPa, electric demand at 5.79 kW/ton of processed kernel and heat consumption at 2071 MJ/ton of processed kernel (829 kg steam/ton of processed kernel). For the vertically integrated unit profile, the following values were found: minimum pressure for the steam process 1.4 MPa, electric demand 6.22 kW/ton of processed kernel and heat consumption 21,503 MJ/ton of processed kernel (7600 kg steam/ton of processed kernel).     

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO₂ emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO₂ emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO₂ emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.     

Gasoline prices,gasoline consumption,and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries

Countries differ considerably in terms of the price drivers pay for gasoline. This paper uses data for 132 countries for the period 1995–2008 to investigate the implications of these differences for the consumption of gasoline for road transport. To address the potential for simultaneity bias, we use both a country's oil reserves and the international crude oil price as instruments for a country's average gasoline pump price. We obtain estimates of the long-run price elasticity of gasoline demand of between − 0.2 and − 0.5. Using newly available data for a sub-sample of 43 countries, we also find that higher gasoline prices induce consumers to substitute to vehicles that are more fuel-efficient, with an estimated elasticity of + 0.2. Despite the small size of our elasticity estimates, there is considerable scope for low-price countries to achieve gasoline savings and vehicle fuel economy improvements via reducing gasoline subsidies and/or increasing gasoline taxes.     

The status of energy conservation in Taiwan's cement industry

The cement industry represents one of the most energy intensive sectors in Taiwan. Energy audits are the direct tools which are employed to help reduce energy consumption. The objectives of energy audits are to establish energy audit systems, provide on-site energy audit service and reduce production cost. This study summarized the energy savings implemented in Taiwan's cement industry; the data were obtained from the on-line Energy Declaration System in 2010. The total implemented energy savings amounted to 68,512 kilo liter of crude oil equivalent (KLOE). The energy audit group audited seven Taiwanese cement plants in 2011 and revealed an energy saving potential of 2571.6 MWh of electricity and 1002.8 KLOE of thermal energy. The total potential energy saving was 1708.5 KL of crude oil equivalent (KLOE), equivalent to a 4560 t reduction in CO₂ emissions, representing the annual CO₂ absorption capacity of a 122 ha forest plantation.     

China's overseas investment in the energy/resources sector: Its scale,drivers, challenges and implications

Since 2005, China has greatly enhanced its presence in the global landscape of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). The total volume of China's OFDI has exceeded $200 billion in the past five years. The number will further rise as China looks for outlets to spend its $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. China's emergence as a global direct investor entails a number of consequences, which are yet to be understood. This study seeks to shed light on how corporate China extends its reaches overseas, what are the policy drivers and who are the key decision makers, from the perspective of the energy/resources sector. The goal is to better understand how to reap the financial benefits of corporate China's marching into the global marketplace.     

The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China’s reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China’s primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000–2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China’s marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling.     

An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth

Many people believe that China's economic growth can continue almost indefinitely. For a manufacturing-based economy such as China's to continue to grow, it needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy. To date, this energy growth has primarily come from coal, but China's indigenous coal supplies are now falling short of the amount needed to support this growth. In this situation, the status of China's future coal supply will be very important for China's future economic development. Our analysis shows that China's ultimate recoverable coal reserves equal 223.6×10⁹ MT, and its production will peak between 2025 and 2030, with peak production of approximately 3.9×10⁹ MT. The extent to which China can import coal in the future is uncertain. With rising coal demand, this combination is likely to create a significant challenge to China's future economic development.     

Energy efficiency in the transport sector in the EU-27: A dynamic dematerialization analysis

Energy use in the European Union's (EU) transport sector amounted to 340 Mtoe¹ in 1999 with the following increasing trend up to 379 Mtoe in 2007 and a decrease from 2008 on, down to 365 Mtoe in 2010. This changing pattern posed several fundamental questions and uncertainties regarding the broader picture of energy efficiency and environmental protection. One of them refers to absolute changes in energy use efficiency in the transport sector over time and the ways of measuring efficiency. Traditional scientific approaches conceptualized to measure efficiency of energy use do not address annual dynamics of changes in the energy use in a given sector per capita. Thus, they are not precise enough for political and methodological purposes as they do not reflect the exact amount of energy consumed in the respective countries and societies.This paper shows a possible solution to this problem and a new perspective on measuring energy efficiency by using the product generational dematerialization (PGD) indicator. The PGD indicator allows for measuring energy efficiency as a dynamic change of consumption and population occurring simultaneously. Thus, it provides an extension to the traditional methodology commonly used for measuring efficiency. To visualize a practical application of this approach, the paper provides an example of evaluating energy efficiency in the transport sector in the EU-27 in 2000–2010. The results of the analysis show a clear materialization tendency in the transport sector (the energy consumption change exceeded the population growth) until 2007 and a reverse tendency (dematerialization) between 2008 and 2010.As energy consumption has a direct impact on environmental quality and exhaustion of natural resources, the paper points out the necessity of extending sustainable resource management policies by new methodologies and providing more efficient solutions for energy consumption in the transport sector.     

China on the move: Oil price explosion?

Rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in China has created a surge of demand for oil products, putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices. This paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in China's transport demand relates to growth in China's economy, as well as the energy intensity of transport. Based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity, a range of scenarios is developed for China's oil demand through 2020. Incremental oil demand from China's transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices. The finding is that new demand from China's transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1–3% in reference scenarios or by 3–10% if oil supply investment is constrained.     

End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention.This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%).     

Effect of fatty acid composition of soybean oil on deposit and performance of plant oil pressure stoves

Plant oil as household energy could be a sustainable and locally available alternative for fossil fuel. However, the use of pure plant oil in pressure stoves leads to deposit in the vaporizer. Therefore, objective of this study was to investigate the effect of the degree of unsaturation of plant oils on performance and deposit formation. Soybean oil with an iodine value of 128 g I₂/100 g was used as well as partly hydrogenated soybean oil with an iodine value of 62 g I₂/100 g, hydrogenated soybean oil with an iodine value of 1 g I₂/100 g, and a blend of 50% refined soybean oil and 50% partly hydrogenated soybean oil was confected to obtain an iodine value of 95 g I₂/100 g. In burning trials, the specific fuel consumption, the required frequency of nozzle cleaning and the amount of deposit in the vaporizer were measured. Results showed an exponential increase of deposits in the vaporizer when iodine value of soybean oil was increased: deposits amounted to 0.26 g/kg of consumed fuel for hydrogenated soybean oil and 0.70 g/kg for the original (untreated) soybean oil. However, an increase in the soybean oil iodine value did not affect fuel consumption, which was 0.296 kg/h for hydrogenated soybean oil compared to 0.286 kg/h for original (untreated) soybean oil. Further research is necessary to investigate the chemical reactions in the vaporizer to identify key precursors (factors) and reactions mechanisms that could influence the formation of deposits in plant oil pressure stoves.     

Cogeneration potential in the Columbian palm oil industry: Three case studies

The palm oil mills are characterized by the availability of considerable amounts of by-products of high-energy value such as empty fruit bunches (EFB), fibers, shells and liquid effluents with high content of organics called palm oil mill effluent (POME). A palm oil mill produces residues equivalent to almost three times the amount of oil produced by biomass, showing a huge potential for increasing the power efficiency of the plants and installed power, mainly by the use of by-products in cogeneration plants with high steam parameters and by reducing steam consumption in process. The objective of this paper is to present the results of the study about the cogeneration potential for three representative palm oil mills located in two important palm oil producing regions in Colombia (South-America), fifth palm oil producers of the world. The sizing of the cogeneration system was made assuming it operation during the greatest possible number of hours throughout the year (based on the seasonal availability of fruit) considering parameters for the steam at 2 MPa and 350 °C, using a condensing-extraction turbine. The balance of mass and energy was made by using the Gate Cycle Enter Software, version 5.51, to estimate the potential of electricity generation. The results showed that for fresh fruit bunch (FFB) processing capacities between 18 and 60 t FFB h⁻¹, it is possible to have surplus power ranging between 1 and 7 MW, if the plants are self-sufficient in electric energy and steam for process. With an average Capacity Factor (approximately 0.4), it is possible to expect a generation index of 75 and 160 kWh t⁻¹ FFB when the processing plant is operating or shutdown, respectively, 3 or 4 times better than when a traditional system with a back-pressure steam turbines is used. This analysis used up to 60% of EFB produced in plant as fuel, considering its value as fertilizer for the palm crop. Several economic conditions were considered to estimate the economic and technical feasibility of cogeneration systems in palm oil mill for Colombian palm oil sector.     

Estimates of oil and natural gas (NG) reserves in Egypt

Egypt depends mainly on oil and NG for 92% of total commercial energy needs. Reserve estimates are largely based on speculations. We give logistics functions for oil and NG production and consumption rates and reserves. An energy-flow diagram has been constructed for Egypt. Sectorial energy consumptions are also given. Estimates of reserves from logistic curves show that crude oil would last for about 24 yr and that NG will last for 150 yr with present production rates.