首页 | 官方网站   微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 234 毫秒
1.
This study proposes a two-equation Bayesian modelling approach to simultaneously study cyclist injury occurrence and bicycle activity at signalized intersections as joint outcomes. This approach deals with the potential presence of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneities and is used to identify factors associated with both cyclist injuries and volumes. Its application to identify high-risk corridors is also illustrated. Montreal, Quebec, Canada is the application environment, using an extensive inventory of a large sample of signalized intersections containing disaggregate motor-vehicle traffic volumes and bicycle flows, geometric design, traffic control and built environment characteristics in the vicinity of the intersections. Cyclist injury data for the period of 2003–2008 is used in this study. Also, manual bicycle counts were standardized using temporal and weather adjustment factors to obtain average annual daily volumes. Results confirm and quantify the effects of both bicycle and motor-vehicle flows on cyclist injury occurrence. Accordingly, more cyclists at an intersection translate into more cyclist injuries but lower injury rates due to the non-linear association between bicycle volume and injury occurrence. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of turning motor-vehicle movements. The presence of bus stops and total crosswalk length increase cyclist injury occurrence whereas the presence of a raised median has the opposite effect. Bicycle activity through intersections was found to increase as employment, number of metro stations, land use mix, area of commercial land use type, length of bicycle facilities and the presence of schools within 50–800 m of the intersection increase. Intersections with three approaches are expected to have fewer cyclists than those with four. Using Bayesian analysis, expected injury frequency and injury rates were estimated for each intersection and used to rank corridors. Corridors with high bicycle volumes, located mainly in the central neighbourhoods of Montreal, have lower risk of injury. These results may reflect the “safety in numbers” hypothesis or cyclist preference towards safer intersections and corridors. Despite these corridors having a lower individual risk, they are nevertheless associated with a greater number of injuries.  相似文献   

2.
This paper studies the influence of built environment (BE) – including land use types, road network connectivity, transit supply and demographic characteristics – on pedestrian activity and pedestrian–vehicle collision occurrence. For this purpose, a two-equation modeling framework is proposed to investigate the effect of built environment on both pedestrian activity and vehicle–pedestrian collision frequency at signalized intersections. Using accident data of ambulance services in the City of Montreal, the applicability of our framework is illustrated. Different model settings were attempted as part of a model sensitivity analysis. Among other results, it was found that the BE in the proximity of an intersection has a powerful association with pedestrian activity but a small direct effect on pedestrian–vehicle collision frequency. This suggests that the impact of BE is mainly mediated through pedestrian activity. In other words, strategies that encourage densification, mix of land uses and increase in transit supply will increase pedestrian activity and may indirectly, with no supplementary safety strategies, increase the total number of injured pedestrians. In accordance with previous research, the number of motor vehicles entering a particular intersection is the main determinant of collision frequency. Our results show that a 30% reduction in the traffic volume would reduce the total number of injured pedestrians by 35% and the average risk of pedestrian collision by 50% at the intersections under analysis. Major arterials are found to have a double negative effect on pedestrian safety. They are positively linked to traffic but negatively associated with pedestrian activity. The proposed framework is useful for the identification of effective pedestrian safety actions, the prediction of pedestrian volumes and the appropriate safety design of new urban developments that encourage walking.  相似文献   

3.
Cities in North America have been building bicycle infrastructure, in particular cycle tracks, with the intention of promoting urban cycling and improving cyclist safety. These facilities have been built and expanded but very little research has been done to investigate the safety impacts of cycle tracks, in particular at intersections, where cyclists interact with turning motor-vehicles. Some safety research has looked at injury data and most have reached the conclusion that cycle tracks have positive effects of cyclist safety. The objective of this work is to investigate the safety effects of cycle tracks at signalized intersections using a case–control study. For this purpose, a video-based method is proposed for analyzing the post-encroachment time as a surrogate measure of the severity of the interactions between cyclists and turning vehicles travelling in the same direction. Using the city of Montreal as the case study, a sample of intersections with and without cycle tracks on the right and left sides of the road were carefully selected accounting for intersection geometry and traffic volumes. More than 90 h of video were collected from 23 intersections and processed to obtain cyclist and motor-vehicle trajectories and interactions. After cyclist and motor-vehicle interactions were defined, ordered logit models with random effects were developed to evaluate the safety effects of cycle tracks at intersections. Based on the extracted data from the recorded videos, it was found that intersection approaches with cycle tracks on the right are safer than intersection approaches with no cycle track. However, intersections with cycle tracks on the left compared to no cycle tracks seem to be significantly safer. Results also identify that the likelihood of a cyclist being involved in a dangerous interaction increases with increasing turning vehicle flow and decreases as the size of the cyclist group arriving at the intersection increases. The results highlight the important role of cycle tracks and the factors that increase or decrease cyclist safety. Results need however to be confirmed using longer periods of video data.  相似文献   

4.
A unique database provided information on pedestrian accidents, intersection geometry and estimates of pedestrian and vehicle flows for the years 1983-1986 for approximately 300 signalized intersections in Hamilton, Ont., Canada. Pedestrian safety at semi-protected schemes, where left-turning vehicles face no opposing traffic but have potential conflicts with pedestrians, were compared with pedestrian safety at normal non-channelized signalized approaches, where right-turning vehicles have potential conflicts with pedestrians. Four different ways of estimating hourly flows for left- and right-turning vehicles were explored. Hourly flows were estimated for periods of 15 min, hours, two periods a day (a.m. and p.m.) and the 'daily' period (7 h). Parameter estimates were somewhat affected by the time period used for flow estimation. However, parameter estimates seem to be affected far more by the traffic pattern (left- or right-turning traffic), even though approaches were selected such that the situation for left- and right-turning turning traffic was similar (no opposing traffic, no advanced green or other separate phases and no channelization). Left-turning vehicles caused higher risks for pedestrians than right-turning vehicles. At low vehicular flows right turns and semi-protected left turns seemed to be equally safe for pedestrians. When risks for pedestrians were calculated as the expected number of reported pedestrian accidents per pedestrian, risk decreased with increasing pedestrian flows and increased with increasing vehicle flow. As risk decreases with increasing pedestrian flows, promoting walking will have a positive effect on pedestrian risk at signalized intersections.  相似文献   

5.
This study identifies and compares the significant factors affecting pedestrian crash injury severity at signalized and unsignalized intersections. The factors explored include geometric predictors (e.g., presence and type of crosswalk and presence of pedestrian refuge area), traffic predictors (e.g., annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed limit, and percentage of trucks), road user variables (e.g., pedestrian age and pedestrian maneuver before crash), environmental predictors (e.g., weather and lighting conditions), and vehicle-related predictors (e.g., vehicle type). The analysis was conducted using the mixed logit model, which allows the parameter estimates to randomly vary across the observations. The study used three years of pedestrian crash data from Florida. Police reports were reviewed in detail to have a better understanding of how each pedestrian crash occurred. Additionally, information that is unavailable in the crash records, such as at-fault road user and pedestrian maneuver, was collected. At signalized intersections, higher AADT, speed limit, and percentage of trucks; very old pedestrians; at-fault pedestrians; rainy weather; and dark lighting condition were associated with higher pedestrian severity risk. For example, a one-percent higher truck percentage increases the probability of severe injuries by 1.37%. A one-mile-per-hour higher speed limit increases the probability of severe injuries by 1.22%. At unsignalized intersections, pedestrian walking along roadway, middle and very old pedestrians, at-fault pedestrians, vans, dark lighting condition, and higher speed limit were associated with higher pedestrian severity risk. On the other hand, standard crosswalks were associated with 1.36% reduction in pedestrian severe injuries. Several countermeasures to reduce pedestrian injury severity are recommended.  相似文献   

6.
This study analyzes vehicle-pedestrian crashes at intersections in Florida over 4 years, 1999-2002. The study identifies the group of drivers and pedestrians, and traffic and environmental characteristics that are correlated with high pedestrian crashes using log-linear models. The study also estimates the likelihood of pedestrian injury severity when pedestrians are involved in crashes using an ordered probit model. To better reflect pedestrian crash risk, a logical measure of exposure is developed using the information on individual walking trips in the household travel survey. Lastly, the impact of average traffic volume on pedestrian crashes is examined. As a result of the analysis, it was found that pedestrian and driver demographic factors, and road geometric, traffic and environment conditions are closely related to the frequency and injury severity of pedestrian crashes. Higher average traffic volume at intersections increases the number of pedestrian crashes; however, the rate of increase is steeper at lower values of average traffic volume. Based on the findings in the analysis, some countermeasures are recommended to improve pedestrian safety.  相似文献   

7.
We study motor-vehicle collisions involving child pedestrians walking to school in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada to understand and contrast collision risks at mid-block and intersection locations. We use a matched case–control study design and apply it to intersection and mid-block locations instead of people. Cases are intersections/mid-blocks where collisions occurred and controls are locations where collisions did not occur. We match cases to controls on geography, socio-economic status and year. We use conditional logistic regression to predict the log-odds of collision risk at intersections and mid-blocks as a function of various environmental measures while controlling for volume of child pedestrian activity. Our results suggest that child pedestrian injuries at intersections are associated with intersection control type, traffic volume, and land use characteristics. In contrast, mid-block child pedestrian collisions are not associated with small scale environmental features. The results of this study suggest that some factors associated with the risk of collision differ across location types. These findings may be useful in the planning of safer walking journeys to school.  相似文献   

8.
Pedestrian–vehicle conflicts are considered as a common safety problem at signalized intersections. The threat to pedestrian safety is mainly related to the interaction with turning vehicles, especially left-turners (left-hand traffic system). This study aims to analyze the lag/gap acceptance behavior of left-turners considering pedestrian movement at signalized crosswalks. Furthermore, the severity of pedestrian–vehicle conflicts is addressed by analyzing vehicle speeds at the conflict points. User behavior at several signalized intersections in Japan is observed by using video cameras. It is assumed that pedestrian movements have their origin at either the near-side (the side of the exiting vehicular traffic) or far-side of the crosswalk. Accepted/rejected lags and gaps are extracted, classified depending on the direction of pedestrian movement, and modeled by using Cumulative Weibull distribution function. The results show that drivers tend to accept shorter lags/gaps between near-side pedestrians compared to far side pedestrians. Furthermore, drivers tend to accept short lags while being conservative about short gaps. Simultaneously vehicles clear the conflict area with significantly higher speeds when accepting lags with single pedestrians. This indicates that the conflicts that occur at low pedestrian demand levels are more severe compared to those at high demand levels.  相似文献   

9.
Efficient geometric design and signal timing not only improve operational performance at signalized intersections by expanding capacity and reducing traffic delays, but also result in an appreciable reduction in traffic conflicts, and thus better road safety. Information on the incidence of crashes, traffic flow, geometric design, road environment, and traffic control at 262 signalized intersections in Hong Kong during 2002 and 2003 are incorporated into a crash prediction model. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are used to quantify the influence of possible contributory factors on the incidence of killed and severe injury (KSI) crashes and slight injury crashes, respectively, while possible interventions by traffic flow are controlled. The results for the incidence of slight injury crashes reveal that the road environment, degree of curvature, and presence of tram stops are significant factors, and that traffic volume has a diminishing effect on the crash risk. The presence of tram stops, number of pedestrian streams, road environment, proportion of commercial vehicles, average lane width, and degree of curvature increase the risk of KSI crashes, but the effect of traffic volume is negligible.  相似文献   

10.
This paper describes the estimation of pedestrian crash count and vehicle interaction severity prediction models for a sample of signalized intersections in Connecticut with either concurrent or exclusive pedestrian phasing. With concurrent phasing, pedestrians cross at the same time as motor vehicle traffic in the same direction receives a green phase, while with exclusive phasing, pedestrians cross during their own phase when all motor vehicle traffic on all approaches is stopped. Pedestrians crossing at each intersection were observed and classified according to the severity of interactions with motor vehicles. Observation intersections were selected to represent both types of signal phasing while controlling for other physical characteristics. In the nonlinear mixed models for interaction severity, pedestrians crossing on the walk signal at an exclusive signal experienced lower interaction severity compared to those crossing on the green light with concurrent phasing; however, pedestrians crossing on a green light where an exclusive phase was available experienced higher interaction severity. Intersections with concurrent phasing have fewer total pedestrian crashes than those with exclusive phasing but more crashes at higher severity levels. It is recommended that exclusive pedestrian phasing only be used at locations where pedestrians are more likely to comply.  相似文献   

11.
This study examined the correlates of injury severity using police records of pedestrian–motor-vehicle collisions on state routes and city streets in King County, Washington. Levels of influence on collision outcome considered (1) the characteristics of individual pedestrians and drivers and their actions; (2) the road environment; and (3) the neighborhood environment. Binary logistic regressions served to estimate the risk of a pedestrian being severely injured or dying versus suffering minor or no injury.Significant individual-level influences on injury severity were confirmed for both types of roads: pedestrians being older or younger; the vehicle moving straight on the roadway. New variables associated with increased risk of severe injury or death included: having more than two pedestrians involved in a collision; and on city streets, the driver being inebriated.Road intersection design was significant only in the state route models, with pedestrians crossing at intersections without signals increasing the risk of being injured or dying.Adjusting for pedestrians’ and drivers’ characteristics and actions, neighborhood medium home values and higher residential densities increased the risk of injury or death. No other road or neighborhood environment variable remained significant, suggesting that pedestrians were not safer in areas with high pedestrian activity.  相似文献   

12.
Most traffic crashes in Chinese cities occur at signalized intersections. Research on the intersection safety problem in China is still in its early stage. The recent development of an advanced traffic information system in Shanghai enables in-depth intersection safety analyses using road design, traffic operation, and crash data. In Shanghai, the road network density is relatively high and the distance between signalized intersections is small, averaging about 200 m. Adjacent signalized intersections located along the same corridor share similar traffic flows, and signals are usually coordinated. Therefore, when studying intersection safety in Shanghai, it is essential to account for intersection correlations within corridors. In this study, data for 195 signalized intersections along 22 corridors in the urban areas of Shanghai were collected. Mean speeds and speed variances of corridors were acquired from taxis equipped with Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to identify crash risk factors at both the intersection and the corridor levels. Results showed that intersections along corridors with lower mean speeds were associated with fewer crashes than those with higher speeds, and those intersections along two-way roads, under elevated roads, and in close proximity to each other, tended to have higher crash frequencies.  相似文献   

13.
Most pedestrian accidents in built-up areas occur at intersections. Even after signalization the number of accidents involving pedestrians often remains high. After reviewing the published evidence, this paper describes how the Traffic Conflicts Techniques has been used to examine the risk to pedestrians at 120 intersections. The principal results indicate that signalization of a high-speed intersection (mean speed above 30 km/h in at least one arm) reduces pedestrian risk to approximately half. If mean speed in every arm is below 30 km/h signalization also reduces pedestrian risk, as long as most vehicles are not turning. Another finding from these studies was that a crosswalk should be located less than two meters from the intersection to optimize pedestrian safety. The conflict studies as well as analyses of accident data show that one should examine separately accidents between turning vehicles and "green-walking" pedestrians and accidents involving pedestrians walking against red light. The effect of an exclusive pedestrian signal phase (scramble) was tested at three sites and proved to be very safety-beneficial in a small town, while in Stockholm it did not prove effective because of a high percentage of red-walkers. Vehicle delay, as well as pedestrian delay, increased at all three sites. Data collected at 152 crosswalks has been used to estimate the parameters of a multivariate model of the frequency of "red-walking." The size of the town and traffic volumes appear to be the major factors influencing this frequency. Additional insight has been obtained from personal interviews of 450 persons. These indicate that shorter waiting times and police enforcement are considered the most efficient measures to reduce the frequency of red-walking.  相似文献   

14.
The waiting process is crucial to pedestrians in the street-crossing behavior. Once pedestrians terminate their waiting behavior during the red light period, they would cross against the red light and put themselves in danger. A joint hazard-based duration model is developed to investigate the effect of various covariates on pedestrian crossing behavior and to estimate pedestrian waiting times at signalized intersections. A total of 1181 pedestrians approaching the intersections during red light periods were observed in Beijing, China. Pedestrian crossing behaviors are classified into immediate crossing behavior and waiting behavior. The probability and effect of various covariates for pedestrians’ immediate crossing behavior are identified by a logit model. Four accelerated failure time duration models based on the exponential, Weibull, lognormal and log-logistic distributions are proposed to examine the significant risk factors affecting duration times for pedestrians’ waiting behavior. A joint duration model is developed to estimate pedestrian waiting times. Moreover, unobserved heterogeneity is considered in the proposed model. The results indicate that the Weibull AFT model with shared frailty is appropriate for modelling pedestrian waiting durations. Failure to account for heterogeneity would significantly underestimate the effects of covariates on waiting duration times. The proposed model provides a better understanding of pedestrian crossing behavior and more accurate estimation of pedestrian waiting times. It may be applicable in traffic system analysis in developing countries with high flow of mixed traffic.  相似文献   

15.
Since illegal pedestrian behavior represents a major source of accidents, research investigating possible reasons and risk factors for crossing against the lights is pivotal for enhancing safety in traffic. The present approach regards behavior at signalized intersections as a result of multiple stimulus discrimination. Hence, it is expected that at crossings divided by a median refuge the excitatory potential of a “consecutive green light” or “oncoming pedestrians” (S+*) attenuates the inhibition of crossing behavior induced by the relevant red light (S−). Standardized observations at critical intersections in Braunschweig, Germany, were conducted to investigate these hypotheses. Comparing outside traffic participants’ behavior in the presence of different stimulus configurations identified the assumed S+* as substantial risk factors for illegal crossings. Moreover, the presented model of stimulus control integrates past risk factor research and may help develop future prevention measures.  相似文献   

16.
Validating a driving simulator using surrogate safety measures   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
Traffic crash statistics and previous research have shown an increased risk of traffic crashes at signalized intersections. How to diagnose safety problems and develop effective countermeasures to reduce crash rate at intersections is a key task for traffic engineers and researchers. This study aims at investigating whether the driving simulator can be used as a valid tool to assess traffic safety at signalized intersections. In support of the research objective, this simulator validity study was conducted from two perspectives, a traffic parameter (speed) and a safety parameter (crash history). A signalized intersection with as many important features (including roadway geometries, traffic control devices, intersection surroundings, and buildings) was replicated into a high-fidelity driving simulator. A driving simulator experiment with eight scenarios at the intersection were conducted to determine if the subjects' speed behavior and traffic risk patterns in the driving simulator were similar to what were found at the real intersection. The experiment results showed that speed data observed from the field and in the simulator experiment both follow normal distributions and have equal means for each intersection approach, which validated the driving simulator in absolute terms. Furthermore, this study used an innovative approach of using surrogate safety measures from the simulator to contrast with the crash analysis for the field data. The simulator experiment results indicated that compared to the right-turn lane with the low rear-end crash history record (2 crashes), subjects showed a series of more risky behaviors at the right-turn lane with the high rear-end crash history record (16 crashes), including higher deceleration rate (1.80+/-1.20 m/s(2) versus 0.80+/-0.65 m/s(2)), higher non-stop right-turn rate on red (81.67% versus 57.63%), higher right-turn speed as stop line (18.38+/-8.90 km/h versus 14.68+/-6.04 km/h), shorter following distance (30.19+/-13.43 m versus 35.58+/-13.41 m), and higher rear-end probability (9/59=0.153 versus 2/60=0.033). Therefore, the relative validity of driving simulator was well established for the traffic safety studies at signalized intersections.  相似文献   

17.
Pedestrians’ Red-light running behavior is one of the most critical factors for pedestrian involved traffic crashes at intersections in China. The primary objective of this study is to explore how various factors affect pedestrians’ red-light running behaviors at intersection areas, using the data collected from Hefei, China. A questionnaire was well designed aiming at collecting pedestrians’ socio-economic characteristics, trip related features, and attribute variables in different crossing facilities. Based on 631 valid samples, a binomial logistic model was established to evaluate the impacts of contributing factors on pedestrians’ red-light running behavior. The modeling results show that four variables significantly affect the probability of pedestrians’ red-light running behavior, which are the trip purpose, time period in one day, pedestrian’s attitude towards whether to run a red light when in hurry, and pedestrian’s attitude towards whether quality of road facility affects crossing behavior. With those variables, the probability of pedestrians’ red-light running behavior at intersections could be predicted. Findings of this study can help understand why pedestrians in China run red-lights and identify which pedestrian groups and intersections are more likely to have such behaviors. This study can also help propose countermeasures more efficiently to reduce pedestrian-related crashes at intersections in China.  相似文献   

18.
Despite a burgeoning research effort directed at understanding the effects of age, gender, disability, group size, traffic control condition and street width on pedestrian safety and compliance rate as they cross a signalized intersection, remarkably little is known about the compliance rate at a signal controlled two-stage crossing and how pedestrians react to different weather conditions. The purpose of this study was to determine whether pedestrian behavior becomes more risky in inclement weather through the investigation of street crossing behavior and compliance under different weather and road surface conditions at a busy two-stage crossing. Road crossing behavior was filmed at one eight-lane divided road strip at a downtown site in Toronto metropolitan area. The intersection was filmed unobtrusively from a rooftop by one camera set to record both oncoming near-side traffic and pedestrian movements. Pedestrian behavior and compliance rate were scored for a number of determinants of safe road crossing actions. Overall, the results show that road crossing behavior in inclement weather conditions was less safe than in fine weather. The designs of signal timing and configuration of the center refuge island also adversely influenced pedestrian behavior at this crossing, and adverse weather conditions further exacerbated the noncompliance rate. This paper presents new information on compliance rate at a two-stage crossing that emphasizes the need to consider the influence of traffic signal design and weather conditions on pedestrians’ behavior. More studies are needed to develop traffic control techniques to allow pedestrians to cross wide two-stage crossings in safety.  相似文献   

19.
This paper presents a before-after study of bike boxes at 10 signalized intersections in Portland, Oregon. The bike boxes, also known as advanced stop lines or advanced stop boxes, were installed to increase visibility of cyclists and reduce conflicts between motor vehicles and cyclists, particularly in potential "right-hook" situations. Before and after video were analyzed for seven intersections with green bike boxes, three intersections with uncolored bike boxes, and two control intersections. User perceptions were measured through surveys of cyclists passing through five of the bike box intersections and of motorists working downtown, where the boxes were concentrated. Both the observations and survey of motorists found a high rate of compliance and understanding of the markings. Overall, 73% of the stopping motor vehicles did not encroach at all into the bike box. Both motor vehicle and bicycle encroachment in the pedestrian crosswalk fell significantly at the bike box locations compared to the control intersections. The bike boxes had mixed effects on the motorists' encroachment in the bicycle lane. The number of observed conflicts at the bike box locations decreased, while the total number of cyclists and motor vehicles turning right increased. Negative-binomial models based upon the data predict fewer conflicts with the boxes, particularly as right-turning motor vehicle volumes increase. Observations of yielding behavior at two bike box and one control intersection found an improvement in motorists yielding to cyclists at the bike box locations. Differences in the traffic volumes and location contexts make firm conclusions about the effects of green coloring of the boxes difficult. Higher shares of surveyed motorists felt that the bike boxes made driving safer rather than more dangerous, even when the sample was narrowed to respondents who were not also cyclists. Over three-quarters of the surveyed cyclists thought that the boxes made the intersection safer.  相似文献   

20.
Alcohol-affected pedestrians are among the highest-risk groups involved in pedestrian casualty crashes. This paper investigates the opportunities to use a modified form of traffic signal operation during high-risk periods and at high-risk locations to reduce alcohol-affected pedestrian crashes and the severity of injuries that might otherwise occur. The 'Dwell-on-Red' treatment involves displaying a red traffic signal to all vehicle directions during periods when no vehicular traffic is detected, so that drivers approach high-risk intersections at a lower speed than if a green signal were displayed. Vehicle speed data were collected before and after treatment activation at both a control and treatment site. Speed data were collected both 30 m prior to and at the intersection stop line. The treatment was associated with a reduction in mean vehicle speeds of 3.9 kph (9%) and 11.0 kph (28%) at 30 m and stop line collection points, respectively, and substantial reductions in the proportion of vehicles travelling at threatening speeds with regard to the severity of pedestrian injury. Other important road safety concerns may also benefit from this form of traffic signal modification, and it is recommended that other areas of application be explored, including the other severe trauma categories typically concentrated around signalised intersections.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司    京ICP备09084417号-23

京公网安备 11010802026262号