舷外有源诱饵对抗反辐射导弹模型研究

舰载雷达系统由多类型雷达组成,在舰艇施放舷外有源诱饵对抗ARM时,不能简单将其视为单一辐射源目标.通过分析舰载雷达辐射源工作特性,建立了舷外有源诱偏条件下ARM对舰载雷达的攻击模型.仿真结果表明ARM散落点在舰载雷达周围分布较为密集,仍然对舰载雷达系统构成了较大的威胁.     

基于两层对策系统的编队协同对地攻防对抗决策分析研究

基于学者Cruz建立的军事对抗的动态、离散的状态空间模型,在两层Stackelber-Nash决策方法的基础上,针对编队协同对地攻击的攻防对抗系统的强对抗性、多目标性和多层次性,建立了两层对策系统——Nash-Stackelberg-Nash决策模型,着重解决军事对抗中的多层次对抗决策问题.将该决策方法应用于Cruz建立的基本战场想定,并将单决策层的Nash对抗决策与两层对策系统的Nash-Stackelberg-Nash决策方法进行了对比,仿真结果表明该决策方法相对单层Nash对抗决策有明显改进,并为作战对抗提供了有力的战场分析依据.     

一类搜索型随机格斗的获胜概率研究

把随机过程分析引入Lanchester方程就形成了随机格斗理论.运用随机格斗理论研究了潜艇协同隐蔽攻击水面舰艇编队获胜概率的数学模型,利用状态转移图和Laplace变换的性质推导出了2对2搜索型随机格斗中双方的获胜概率公式,并结合潜艇协同隐蔽攻击水面舰艇的实际,计算分析了格斗双方的获胜概率.利用这一公式可以得到概率上的精确解,能够被用来定量评估潜艇协同隐蔽攻击水面舰艇编队的作战效能.     

模糊信息处理在舰艇等级评估中的应用

采用模糊信息综合处理的方法，对舰艇主要设备技术状态作综合处理，评估舰艇的技术状态等级，促进舰艇等级评估趋向科学化、规范化。     

基于攻击传播性的分布式网络信任模型

根据分布式网络的特点及现有网络节点信任模型的不足,提出了基于攻击传播性的分布式网络信任模型。根据恶意节点攻击行为及其攻击传播性的特点,给出了在攻击具有传播性条件下的信任度更新计算方法,结合直接信任度和间接信任度计算出总体信任度,最后给出模型的计算协议及仿真实验。实验结果表明,该模型更逼近真实网络运行情况,并有效地避免恶意节点的攻击,提高文件成功传输的比率。该模型对于分布式网络环境下提高网络节点信任度评价的准确性,建立可信网络传输路径具有重要意义。     

一种面向图像识别的神经网络通用扰动生成算法

近年来,基于深度神经网络的图像识别技术表现出良好的性能,然而研究表明神经网络容易受到对抗扰动攻击而发生分类错误,施加一个小的通用扰动就能使神经网络在整个数据集上失效.为构建更加健壮的神经网络,对通用扰动生成的研究显得至关重要.通用扰动生成问题要求得到一个扰动向量对整个数据集产生指定扰动率的攻击效果,相较于单张图片扰动生成问题其约束条件更严格,计算难度更大.目前已有算法得到的通用扰动范数较大,容易被人眼识别.文章基于优化理论提出新的通用扰动生成算法,在达到指定扰动率的同时能产生更小的通用扰动.算法结合PCA降维思想克服了问题的规模性带来的困难;然后利用单张对抗扰动向量的均值叠加随机噪声,得到满足扰动率的初始通用扰动;最后改进梯度下降方法在保证扰动率的同时得到更小的通用扰动.实验表明,该方法可有效攻击各类先进神经网络:在达到相同扰动率的情况下,所得通用扰动的范数较Uni.Perturbation算法的结果平均降低了54%.     

集群搜索对策理论在舰-潜对抗中的一类应用

使用对策论的观点和方法,结合搜索论的知识,建立了一类舰-潜对抗搜索对策模型,以模型的结论做了系统分析,考虑了对策双方的最优策略及战术使用。     

水面舰艇编队防空和信息化战争评估模型

研究了由一艘驱逐舰和四艘护卫舰组成的水面舰艇编队的防空建模问题,建立了突出信息平衡度的修正兰彻斯特战争模型.对于问题1,利用编队与来袭导弹的时变相对位置速度数据求解模型,得到编队最佳队形.对于问题2,建立了来袭导弹对舰艇编队追击问题的几何模型,从单舰到编队的拦截区域分析了编队最小防御纵深的估算方法.对于问题3,采用问题2中类似的方法,计算出有信息支援条件下可拦截来袭导弹15批,相比问题二提高了37.20%.对于问题4,采用聚类分析方法对已知意图的附件数据进行聚类,将分类后的类别中心作为意图识别的模式,采用基于所提出的意图偏差度判别分析方法对空中可疑目标可能的意图作出了识别.对于问题5,在分析信息优势的特征和信息平衡度的重要作用的基础上,根据交战双方对对方作战信息的掌控能力和实时水平,给出了交战双方之间的信息平衡度计算模型.以海湾战争作为案例,结合两类模型进行了对比计算,对修正模型的有效性作出了初步验证.     

标准模型下几个签密方案的密码学分析

针对5个文献中所提出的标准模型下的签密方案进行了安全性分析.指出它们或者存在恶意但被动的KGC(Key generation center)攻击、或者存在内部攻击者的保密性攻击、或者存在内部攻击者的伪造性攻击、或者存在选择明文攻击.通过这些攻击,攻击者或者可以伪造一个签密文、或者可以破坏方案的保密性.最后表明要设计标准模型下安全的签密方案仍然是一个值得研究的问题.     

复杂网络的覆盖数攻击

在总结复杂网络基于度、介数等指标的蓄意攻击策略的基础上,提出了基于平均路径内覆盖数指标的攻击策略.利用基于该指标的攻击策略对网络模型和真实网络进行了数值模拟,结果表明,这种蓄意攻击策略对一类复杂网络是有效的.     

导弹贮存可靠性评估

本文针对导弹上不同部件在长期贮存中、所受影响不同及可修性不同等特点 ,将弹上部件分为五类 .在此基础上、研究给出了该类导弹的贮存可靠性物理模型和相应的数学模型 ,可称作配套系统模型 ,并通过一个简单实例介绍了具体计算方法     

目标散布区对导弹目标选择概率影响的仿真模型

当反舰导弹飞近目标散布区时,导弹搜索雷达必须开机搜索目标,导弹根据目标反射信号的几何或能量特性,利用某一算法从被探测到的,包括敌方施放的假目标在内的所有目标中选择某一目标作为导弹的攻击目标.目标散布区的外形和大小对导弹选择真实目标概率的影响是一个尚未得到深入研究的问题.推导了目标散布区对导弹正确选择目标概率的影响函数;在考虑了目标舰及时提供假目标的仿真模型的基础上,给出了七种导引头选择目标的算法及仿真模型.仿真结果表明,目标散布区影响反舰导弹雷达的开机时间,从而影响导引头选择真实目标的概率及其抗电子干扰能力.     

导弹武器系统费用的模糊估算模型研究

利用模糊数学的基本原理,基于模糊贴近度的概念和择近原则,在同一条件下,研究和对比在研导弹武器系统与已有导弹武器系统的相似程度,在导弹武器系统费用历史资料的基础上,根据指数平滑法的理论,建立了在早期设计阶段导弹武器系统费用的模糊预测模型。仿真实例验证了该方法的适用性和结果的可靠性。     

备件品种选择的rough方法

分析了影响备件储备品种选择的重要性、可更换性、消耗性、获得难度和经济性等五个因素,利用粗集方法,按条件属性的不同顺序对备件储备品种的选择规则进行了约简,根据工程实践,从中选择一个更加合理的约简结果作为最终的备件储备品种的选择规则,并得到了相应的决策算法.该方法能够克服各影响因素在备件品种选择过程中的影响不足或影响过强等弱点,具有简单、操作方便等特点,为导弹武器装备备件保障部门选择导弹备件品种提供了一种新的理论依据.     

导弹落点精度的一种Bayes估计方法

针对传统的区间估计法在导弹落点精度评定中不能完全反映实际情况的问题,本文在充分利用了各阶段试验信息的条件下提出了采用一种Bayes估计方法对导弹落点精度进行评定,并通过一组试验数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明本文所采用的方法比传统的区间估计法评定的导弹落点精度要高。     

A new methodology for fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making with multi-granularity and non-homogeneous information

The aim of this paper is to develop a new methodology for solving fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making problems with non-homogeneous information, including multi-granular linguistic term sets, fuzzy numbers, interval values and real numbers. In this methodology, different distances are defined to measure differences between alternatives and the ideal solution as well as the negative ideal solution. A relative closeness method is developed by introducing the multi-attribute ranking index based on the particular measure of closeness to the IS. The proposed method determines a compromise solution for the group, providing a maximum “group utility” for the “majority” and a minimum of an individual regret for the “opponent”. The implementation process, effectiveness and feasibility of the method proposed in this paper are illustrated with a real example of the missile weapon system design project selection.     

Model simplification and digital design of multivariable sampled-data control systems via a dominant-data matching method

A dominant-data matching method is developed for model simplification and design of digital multivariable sampled-data control systems. A mixed method combining dominant-data matching and the dominant-pole technique is also derived for determining a stable reduced-degree multivariable digital controller. A real semiactive terminal homing missile system is used as an illustrative example.     

A Stackelberg equilibrium for a missile procurement problem

This paper deals with a procurement problem of missiles involving the efficient assignment of the missiles to some targets. Within a fixed amount of budget, a leader purchases several types of missiles, by which he aims to damage as much value as possible a follower hides into some facilities later. The effectiveness of the missile depends on the type of missile and facility. A payoff of the game is the expected amount of destroyed value. The problem is generalized as a two-person zero-sum game of distributing discrete resources with a leader and a follower. Our problem is to derive a Stackelberg equilibrium for the game. This type of game has an abundance of applications. The problem is first formulated into an integer programming problem with a non-separable objective function of variables and it is further equivalently transformed into a maximin integer knapsack problem. We propose three exacts methods and an approximation method for an optimal solution.     

Efficiency analysis in two-stage structures using fuzzy data envelopment analysis

Two-stage data envelopment analysis (TsDEA) models evaluate the performance of a set of production systems in which each system includes two operational stages. Taking into account the internal structures is commonly found in many situations such as seller-buyer supply chain, health care provision and environmental management. Contrary to conventional DEA models as a black-box structure, TsDEA provides further insight into sources of inefficiencies and a more informative basis for performance evaluation. In addition, ignoring the qualitative and imprecise data leads to distorted evaluations, both for the subunits and the system efficiency. We present the fuzzy input and output-oriented TsDEA models to calculate the global and pure technical efficiencies of a system and sub-processes when some data are fuzzy. To this end, we propose a possibilistic programming problem and then convert it into a deterministic interval programming problem using the α-level based method. The proposed method preserves the link between two stages in the sense that the total efficiency of the system is equal to the product of the efficiencies derived from two stages. In addition to the study of technical efficiency, this research includes two further contributions to the ancillary literature; firstly, we minutely discuss the efficiency decompositions to indicate the sources of inefficiency and secondly, we present a method for ranking the efficient units in a fuzzy environment. An empirical illustration is also utilised to show the applicability of the proposed technique.     

Error analysis of the semi-discrete local discontinuous Galerkin method for semiconductor device simulation models

In this paper we continue our effort in Liu-Shu (2004) and Liu-Shu (2007) for developing local discontinuous Galerkin (LDG) finite element methods to discretize moment models in semiconductor device simulations. We consider drift-diffusion (DD) and high-field (HF) models of one-dimensional devices, which involve not only first derivative convection terms but also second derivative diffusion terms, as well as a coupled Poisson potential equation. Error estimates are obtained for both models with smooth solutions. The main technical difficulties in the analysis include the treatment of the inter-element jump terms which arise from the discontinuous nature of the numerical method, the nonlinearity, and the coupling of the models. A simulation is also performed to validate the analysis.