Kinematics of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), which marks the boundary between Anatolia and the Eurasian plate, is one of the world's most seismically active structures. Although the eastern part of NAFZ has high seismic hazard, there is a lack of geodetic information about the present tectonics of this region. Even though many scientists would like to study this area, geographical and logistical problems make performing scientific research difficult. In order to investigate contemporary neotectonic deformation on the eastern NAFZ and in its neighborhood, a relatively dense Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring network was established in 2003. Geodetic observations were performed in three GPS campaigns in an area of 350 km × 200 km with 12-month intervals. In addition, 14 new GPS stations were measured far from the deforming area. Since this region includes the intersection of the NAFZ and the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), deformation is complex and estimating seismic hazard is difficult. One important segment is the Yedisu segment and it has not broken since the 1784 earthquake. After the 1992 Erzincan and 2003 Pulumur earthquakes, the Coulomb stress loading on the Yedisu segment of the NAFZ has increased significantly, emphasizing the need to monitor this region. We computed the horizontal velocity field with respect to Eurasia and strain rates field as well. GPS-derived velocities relative to Eurasia are in the range of 16–24 mm/year, which are consistent with the regional tectonics. The principal strain rates were derived from the velocity field. Results show that strain is accumulating between the NAFZ and EAFZ along small secondary fault branches such as the Ovacik Fault (OF).     

Palaeoseismic history of the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault (Erzincan,Turkey): Implications for the seismicity of the Yedisu seismic gap

The North Anatolian Fault showed a remarkable seismic activity especially between 1939 and 1999, when the westward migrating earthquake sequence created surface ruptures more than 1000 km, leaving unbroken only the Marmara segments, to the west, and the Yedisu Segment, to the east along the main strand of the fault. To understand the palaeoseismicity of the Yedisu Seismic Gap, we undertook trench investigations close to the village of Balaban Sar?kaya, on the western part of the Yedisu Segment. We found evidence for at least five surface faulting earthquakes, from which only two are correlated with the 18 July 1784 CE and 27 June 1583 CE historical events. Although the surface rupture of the 1784 CE was reported by other trench studies, the evidence of 1583 CE event is presented for the first time. In consideration with other historical earthquakes, affecting the region east of Erzincan, we suggest that this particular section of the North Anatolian Fault may be in a seismically quiescent period, following a cluster of earthquakes in its near history. In order to test this hypothesis, further studies are needed to increase our knowledge on the temporal and spatial seismic behaviour of the Yedisu Segment, which has potential to create an earthquake with M _w ~7.2 in the near future.     

Geodetic deformation vs. seismic strain deduced by historical earthquakes across the Alborz Mountains

Historical seismicity is used in order to map spatial distribution of seismic moment released by past earthquakes and to compare strain rate deduced from seismicity to those measured by geodetic GPS survey. Spatial analyses are performed on the seismicity of northern boundary of Central Iranian Block which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. This belt has been responsible for several catastrophic earthquakes in the past. In this study, the records of historical and instrumental earthquakes in the Alborz Mountains are used to calculate and plot geographical distribution of seismic moment released in time. A two-dimensional distribution function is proposed and used here to spread seismic moment along causative tectonic features. Using accumulated seismic moment, average slip rates across active faults are estimated for 32 sub-zones along the Alborz Mountains and western Kopet Dag. Seismic moment released by historical and recent earthquakes on this belt accounts for slip rate of 3–5 mm/year which is in good agreement with the geodetic vectors recently deduced from GPS survey in this region. The study also reveals geographical variations of slip rates along some 900 km length of this zone based on seismic history. The results are compared against finding from similar study in this region. Portions of Central and Eastern Alborz show lower seismic strain rate which could imply aseismic motion or overdue earthquakes. Completeness of historical earthquake catalogue and its reliability with regard to earthquake magnitudes, locations, and rupturing systems are among many plausible factors controlling the credibility of such results. Therefore, any conclusions derived from these results remain as reliable as the data and assumptions used for the analyses.     

Anomalies of Seismic Activity and Transient Crustal Deformations Preceding the 2005 M 7.0 Earthquake West of Fukuoka

If aseismic slip occurs on a fault or its deeper extension, both seismicity and crustal deformation around the source would be affected. Anomalous phenomena of this kind are revealed from earthquake occurrence data and geodetic records during a period of 10 years leading up to the March 2005 M 7.0 earthquake west of Fukuoka that occurred off the northern coast of Kyushu, Japan. Seismicity rate anomalies (quiescence and activation) took place relative to the rates expected by the ETAS model in a number of seismic zones in and around the Kyushu District. The seismic zone of the relative quiescence and activation consistently corresponds to the zone of the negative and positive ΔCFS (Coulomb failure stress change), respectively, assuming the precursory aseismic slips on the M 7.0 source fault. In addition, we consider the time series of geodetic baseline distances between permanent GPS stations in the Kyushu District for the same period, which also supports the possible precursory slips rather than the known slow slips beneath the Bungo Straight, off the eastern coast of Kyushu.     

Determining and modeling tectonic movements along the central part of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) using geodetic measurements

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF), which extends from Karl?ova in Eastern Turkey to the Gulf of Saros in the Northern Aegean Sea, is one of the longest active strike-slip faults in the world with a length of about 1500 km. Within the North Anatolian Shear Zone (NASZ) there are long splays off the main trunk of the NAF veering towards the interior parts of Anatolia. Although the whole shear zone is still seismically active, the major seismicity is concentrated along the main branch of the NAF. Splays of the NAF dissect the shear zone into different continental blocks. The largest splay of the NAF was selected to analyze the distribution of movements between the faults delimiting these blocks. Four years of GPS measurements and modeling results indicate that the differential motion between the Anatolian collage and the Eurasian plate along the central part of the NAF is partitioned between fault splays and varies between 18.7 ± 1.6 and 21.5 ± 2.1 mm/yr with the main branch taking ∼90% of the motion.     

Aftershock Distribution as a Constraint on the Geodetic Model of Coseismic Slip for the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake

Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF SLIP RATE DEFICIT ACROSS HAIYUAN-LIUPAN SHAN FAULT ZONE CONSTRAINED BY GPS DATA

As the northeast boundary of the Tibetan plateau, the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone has separated the intensely tectonic deformed Tibetan plateau from the stable blocks of Ordos and Alxa since Cenozoic era. It is an active fault with high seismic risk in the west of mainland China. Using geology and geodetic techniques, previous studies have obtained the long-term slip rate across the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone. However, the detailed locking result and slip rate deficit across this fault zone are scarce. After the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, the tectonic stress field of Longmen Shan Fault and its vicinity was changed, which suggests that the crustal movement and potential seismic risk of Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone should be investigated necessarily. Utilizing GPS horizontal velocities observed before and after Wenchuan earthquake(1999~2007 and 2009~2014), the spatial and temporal distributions of locking and slip rate deficit across the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone are inferred. In our model, we assume that the crustal deformation is caused by block rotation, horizontal strain rate within block and locking on block-bounding faults. The inversion results suggest that the Haiyuan fault zone has a left-lateral strike-slip rate deficit, the northern section of Liupan Shan has a thrust dip-slip rate deficit, while the southern section has a normal dip-slip rate deficit. The locking depths of Maomao Shan and west section of Laohu Shan are 25km during two periods, and the maximum left-lateral slip rate deficit is 6mm/a. The locking depths of east section of Laohu Shan and Haiyuan segment are shallow, and creep slip dominates them presently, which indicates that these sections are in the postseismic relaxation process of the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake. The Liupan Shan Fault has a locking depth of 35km with a maximum dip-slip rate deficit of 2mm/a. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the high slip rate deficit across Liupan Shan Fault migrated from its middle to northern section, and the range decreased, while its southern section had a normal-slip rate deficit. Our results show that the Maomao Shan Fault and west section of Laohu Shan Fault could accumulate strain rapidly and these sections are within the Tianzhu seismic gap. Although the Liupan Shan Fault accumulates strain slowly, a long time has been passed since last large earthquake, and it has accumulated high strain energy possibly. Therefore, the potential seismic risks of these segments are significantly high compared to other segments along the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone.     

On the Consistency of Large Earthquake Moment and Strain Rate Inferred from GPS Data in North China

INTRODUCTIONStudyingthe relation between the accumulation of crustal strain and the release rate of seismicmoment is animportant subject of earth science research.It is also one of the important methods ofestimatingthe future seismic risk(Ward,1994;1998a;…     

Evidence of non extensivity in the evolution of seismicity along the San Andreas Fault,California, USA: An approach based on Tsallis statistical physics

We examine the nature of the seismogenetic system along the San Andreas Fault (SAF), California, USA, by searching for evidence of complexity and non-extensivity in the earthquake record. We use accurate, complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogues in which aftershocks are included (raw catalogues), or have been removed by a stochastic declustering procedure (declustered catalogues). On the basis of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP), which generalizes the Boltzmann–Gibbs formalism to non-equilibrating (complex) systems, we investigate whether earthquakes are generated by an extensive self-excited Poisson process or by a non-extensive complex process. We examine bivariate cumulative frequency distributions of earthquake magnitudes and interevent times and determine the size and time dependence of the respective magnitude and temporal entropic indices, which indicate the level on non-equilibrium (correlation). It is shown that the magnitude entropic index is very stable and corresponds to proxy b-values that are remarkably consistent with the b-values computed by conventional means. The temporal entropic index computed from the raw catalogues indicate moderately to highly correlated states during the aftershock sequences of large earthquakes, progressing to quasi-uncorrelated states as these die out and before the next large event. Conversely, the analysis of the declustered catalogues shows that background seismicity exhibits moderate to high correlation that varies significantly albeit smoothly with time. This indicates a persistent sub-extensive seismogenetic system. The degree of correlation is generally higher in the southern SAF segment, which is consistent with the observation of shorter return periods for large earthquakes. A plausible explanation is that because aftershock sequences are localized in space and time, their efficient removal unveils long-range background interactions which are obscured by their presence! Our results indicate complexity in the expression of background seismicity along the San Andreas Fault, with criticality being a very likely mechanism as a consequence of the persistent non-equilibrium inferred from the temporal entropic index. However, definite conclusions cannot be drawn until the earthquake record is exhaustively studied in all its forms.     

Determination of crustal movements in Turkey by terrestrial geodetic methods

In Turkey, neotectonic activity originated from the collision of the Arabian and Anatolian land masses during the Middle Miocene. As a result of the collision, westward escape of the Anatolian block introduced E-W compression in Western Turkey which began to be relieved by N-S extension. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is the major active strike-slip fault that was formed under the neotectonic regime. The rates of the motion along this fault estimated by several authors are in the range of 0.4–2.9 cm/a according to kinematic data. In Turkey, the first studies of crustal movements by geodetic methods were started in the west section of the NAF in 1972. So far, individual activities and studies coordinated by multidisciplinary projects have been realized in this region. The results obtained from available geodetic data indicate the motion of the Anatolian block relative to Eurasia.     

华北地区大地震矩释放率和GPS应变率的一致性研究

GPS测量技术可以在较大地区范围内获得高精度地壳形变速率。稳定的应变速率提供了精确确定地震活动率的机会。本文运用Kostrov(1974)的公式将经平滑的华北地区应变速率转化为矩释放率，并与运用1303年洪洞地震以来的地震目录计算的矩释放率进行比较，发现两者之比南北向为60．6％，东西向为68．9％，北东剪切分量为104．1％。近似为1的比率表明了GPS测量结果的可靠性。这个结果对结合历史地震及大地形变测量估计矩释放进行地震危险性评估具有一定参考意义。     

A NEW FINDING OF SURFACE RUPTURE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1936 LINGSHAN M6(3/4) EARTHQUAKE,GUANGXI, CHINA

On April 1, 1936, an M6(3/4) earthquake occurred on the Fangcheng-lingshan Fault. This event is the biggest historical earthquake on the coastal seismic zone, South China ever. But so far, no any findings about the surface rupture of this event have been reported. This paper is the first to find several intact surface rupture zones associated with the 1936 Lingshan seismic event, in the areas of Gaotang, Jiaogengping etc. on the northeast segment of the Fangcheng-Lingshan Fault. According to the field work, the surface rupture stretches to 10km and distributes along NE direction in front of Luoyang Mountain, represented by earthquake scarp, extensional fracture, dextrally faulted gully and river system etc. The characteristics of surface ruptures and faulted landforms indicate that the surface rupture is of normal-dextral strike slip faulting. The trenching on this fault exposed that at least three seismic events have been recorded, including two historical earthquake events and the latest one is the 1936 Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake. These surface rupture zones are the key to the detection of seismogenic structure and the re-estimate of magnitude of this event. The new finding of these surface rupture zones would be particularly significant for the detection of the seismogenic structure of Lingshan M6(3/4) earthquake.     

The sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004, as an event unrelated to the plate-tectonic process in the lithosphere

The Sumatra (Indonesia) earthquake of December 26, 2004 (M _w = 9.0?9.3), is among the strongest seismic events (occupying the second to fourth place) recorded in the epoch of instrumental seismological observations. In addition, this earthquake appears to be the first event of such a scale for which results of up-to-date high-precision geodetic measurements are available. Therefore, it is of particular interest for studies of geodynamics of mobile belts, seismogenic zones, and the Earth’s crust as a whole. The available geological, geophysical, and geodetic data for the Mediterranean-Caucasian segment of the Alpine-Himalayan mobile belt, the Greater Caucasus, and the Tajik depression suggest that the tectonic structure, geological zonality, seismicity, and present-day geodynamics of these structural elements of the Earth’s crust are controlled by the interaction of two different mechanisms of tectogenesis. First, this is the mechanism of independent self-development of the aforementioned structural elements and, first of all, the mobile belt as a whole; this mechanism acts through an intense increase in the volume and area of laminated rocks of the crust/lithosphere, apparently, due to the influx of additional mineral material supplied by an ascending flow of deep fluids. The second type of mechanisms is related to the external plate-tectonic action on the mobile belt and the other structural elements due to lateral movements of lithospheric plates. The joint analysis of geological, geodetic (GPS), and seismological data on the Sumatra earthquake area shows that these two mechanisms also act in the Indonesian part of the Alpine-Himalayan mobile belt. However, the Sumatra earthquake itself is a result of an independent (unrelated to plate tectonics) process in the mobile belt rather than the convergence of adjacent lithospheric plates.     

天山地震带主要活动断层现今的滑动速率及其地震矩亏损

文中收集了1999—2015年天山地震带及其周边地区的GNSS数据,计算得到了速度场结果,并利用弹性块体模型计算了研究区域内各块体的闭锁深度和主要断层的滑动速率。研究结果表明:南天山断裂带西段的迈丹断裂的缩短速率处于高值状态,达(-6.3±1.9) mm/a,高于南天山东段;北天山断裂带西段的缩短速率同样高于东段。利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩积累变化及1900年以来的地震矩释放变化量,以分析地震矩亏损分布,结果显示北天山山前断裂、迈丹断裂、额尔齐斯断裂带北段和喀什河断裂西段存在较大的地震矩亏损,具有孕育7级以上地震的潜能,而北轮台断裂、柯坪断裂带中段则呈现地震矩盈余状态,在未来的一段时间内不具备发生强震的可能。     

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.     

The spatiotemporal variation of the b-value and its tectonic implications in North China

In this study, we adopt an improved Bayesian approach based on free-knot B-spline bases to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value. Synthetic tests show that the improved Bayesian approach has a superior performance compared to the Bayesian approach as well as the widely used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method in fitting the real variation of b-values. We then apply the improved Bayesian approach to North China and find that the b-value has a clear relevance to seismicity. Temporal changes of b-values are also investigated in two specific areas of North China. We interpret sharp decreases in the b-values as useful messages in earthquake hazard analysis.     

Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western,Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone,Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis

Characteristics of seismic activity along the North Anatolian Fault Zone are analyzed between 1970 and 2010. Magnitude completeness changes between 2.7 and 2.9 in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is well represented with a b-value typically close to 1. A clear decrease in temporal distribution of b-value is observed before the strong main shocks. Correlation dimension values are relatively large and the seismic activity is more clustered at larger scales in the North Anatolian Fault Zone.     

Seismicity of the Sinai subplate region:kinematicimplications

The seismic activity of the Sinai subplate region on the basis of both historical (2200B.C.–1900 A.D.) and recent (1900–1995) earthquake catalogs have been evaluated.Moderateand large earthquakes occurred mainly at the subplate boundaries, Dead Sea Fault (DSF) systemin the east, Cyprean arc in the north, and Suez rift in the southwest.Along the Dead Sea Fault system the activity concentrated at the southern andcentralsegments. The earthquake distribution appears to have a tendency to cluster in time andspace.The swarms (February, 1983; April, 1990; August, 1993 and November, 1995) in the GulfofAqaba indicate that the southern segment of the Dead Sea Fault system is the mostseismogenicthrough the last two decades. North of the Dead Sea depression the seismic activitytends to haveoccurred with NW trend to extend under the Levantine Sea. Although the northernsegment ofthe Dead Sea Fault system is well defined from geological, geophysical and historicalearthquakeactivity recent seismic activity is practically absent especially north of Latitude 34°N.In the eastern Mediterranean the seismicity is much higher in the area of the Hellenicarcthan in the Cyprean arc. Moreover, the activity occurs in a wide belt suggesting that theplateboundary is a deformation zone instead of a single line.The seismic activity in the Gulf of Suez is scattered and does not have any distincttrend.However, three active zones are delineated. At the mouth of the gulf most of activityisconcentrated where the Sinai triple junction (Africa, Arabia, Sinai) is situated. The centralpartand the northern part of the gulf include the adjacent area as far as the river Nile. Actually,theactivity is markedly decreased from south to north.Although there is no seismological evidence that the Suez rift continues into theeasternMediterranean, the activity in the Gulf of Suez region cannot be ignored.The parameters of magnitude-frequency relation (a, b) indicate thatthelevel of earthquake activity in the Sinai subplate region is generally moderate. Moreover,theenergy release curve shows a regular trend and reflects occasional high activity. © 1999ElsevierScience Ltd. All rights reserved.     

川滇菱形块体东边界断层闭锁程度与滑动亏损动态特征研究

利用1999—2007期和2009—2013期中国大陆GPS速度场数据,采用DEFNODE负位错反演程序估算了川滇菱形块体东边界——鲜水河—安宁河—则木河—小江断裂带在汶川地震前后的断层闭锁程度和滑动亏损空间分布动态变化特征,讨论了汶川地震对该断裂系统的影响范围和程度,并结合b值空间分布和地震破裂时-空结果分析了断裂系统的强震危险段.结果表明,汶川地震前鲜水河断裂最南端为完全闭锁(闭锁深度25km),中南段地表以下10~15km深度为强闭锁状态,中北段基本处于蠕滑状态;安宁河断裂最南端闭锁很弱,其余位置闭锁深度为10~15km;则木河断裂除最南端闭锁较弱以外,其余位置基本为完全闭锁;小江断裂在巧家以南、东川以南、宜良附近、华宁以北等四处位置闭锁较弱,其余位置为强闭锁.10年尺度的GPS速度场反演所得断层闭锁程度所指示的强震危险段,主要为鲜水河断裂道孚—八美段、安宁河断裂中段、则木河断裂中北段、小江断裂北段东川附近、小江断裂南段华宁—建水段,该结果与地质尺度的断层地震空区和30年尺度的b值空间分布所指示的危险段落具有一致性.汶川地震后断裂带远、近场速度分布和块体运动状态发生变化,这种区域地壳运动调整使得负位错模型反演得到的断裂带闭锁情况发生一定变化.汶川地震前后川滇菱形块体东边界平行断层滑动亏损速率均为左旋走滑亏损,且在安宁河断裂北端、则木河断裂中北段滑动亏损速率最大;除鲜水河断裂中南段与最南端和小江断裂东川附近以外,其余断裂震后滑动亏损速率均有所增加.垂直断层滑动亏损速率既有拉张亏损也有挤压亏损,且鲜水河断裂最南端由震前挤压转变为震后拉张,其余断裂除了安宁河断裂和小江断裂中段与最北端存在挤压滑动亏损速率外均为拉张速率.