盗窃者犯罪出行距离的特征及其影响因素——基于居住社区、作案社区及出行物理障碍的综合考虑

从犯罪出行距离的角度研究犯罪行为,有助于更好地理解犯罪发生的机理。已有研究主要探讨作案社区的特征对犯罪者出行距离的影响,尚未综合考虑作案地、居住社区与作案社区差异及出行物理障碍(physical barrier)影响。论文以中国南方某特大城市为例,构建考虑个体层与作案社区层特征的多层线性回归模型,探究盗窃者犯罪出行距离的影响因素。研究发现：① 相比作案社区层,个体层的变量对犯罪出行距离的影响更大;② 出行物理障碍变量会提高模型的解释力,犯罪出行跨越的物理障碍越多,则出行距离越远,且它会影响作案社区中地铁、超市、银行对犯罪出行距离的作用;③ 居住社区与作案社区之间的环境差异对犯罪出行距离有影响,居住社区中的公交站、学校、超市越多,地铁站越少,犯罪者的出行距离越近。研究结论可以为犯罪者的地理画像与警务防控提供理论支撑。     

基于犯罪模式理论的犯罪出行空间特征与影响因素——以长春市南关区扒窃为例

犯罪出行是犯罪地理学的重要研究议题,在犯罪防控、侦破等警务实践中具有突出的技术贡献。受制于研究数据的限制,中国犯罪出行实证研究较为缺乏。论文研究了2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行的空间模式与影响因素,并指出：① 2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行平均距离为5.74 km,存在明显的空间衰减效应,空间模式为就近掠夺,在距离犯罪者居住地2 km处出现犯罪缓冲区。② 南关区扒窃犯罪高发区与犯罪群体主要聚居地在空间上呈现重叠,该区域犯罪以就近掠夺的空间模式为主。③ 回归模型验证了犯罪者人口属性中性别、户籍地、是否就业和具有前科劣迹、涉案金额、犯罪地点所属类型对于出行距离的显著影响,其中户籍地变量为理解转型期中国大城市犯罪行为具有一定意义。     

农村居民点土地整理潜力研究方法述评

结合我国农村居民点土地整理潜力研究现状,将农村居民点土地整理研究归纳为综合潜力评价与农村居民点土地整理潜力计算方法两项主要研究内容;评述政策指标测算法、闲置宅基地抽样调查法和建筑容积率法3种农村居民点土地整理潜力计算方法,并探讨农村居民点土地整理潜力理论缺乏系统性、综合潜力研究中土地整理适宜性评价与综合潜力评价重叠及农村居民点土地整理潜力计算方法尚不完善等问题;提出农村居民点土地整理潜力研究应与耕地整理等其他土地整理领域相结合,使农村居民点土地整理潜力计算方法更系统、更精确。     

基于贝叶斯最大熵的甘肃省多年平均降水空间化研究

 贝叶斯最大熵方法可以对具有一定不确定性的“软数据”和认为没有误差的“硬数据”进行插值。对甘肃省1961—1990年52个气象站点的多年平均降水数据进行空间化研究。通过比较普通克里格、共协克里格、三元回归建模后残差插值以及基于贝叶斯最大熵的3种不同软硬数据参与情况下的插值结果,发现考虑降水30 a时间序列不完整性以及辅助变量经验模型不确定性的插值结果的MAE和RMSE,比直接使用多年平均降水数据直接插值的MAE和RMSE小,表明贝叶斯最大熵方法通过对不确定性的考虑可以有效降低预测结果的绝对误差。从降水的空间分布来看,考虑辅助变量DEM的插值结果能相对较好的体现高程对降水的地形影响,尤其分区将辅助变量转换为软数据可以有效体现不同区域高程对降水的不同影响问题。综合误差评价以及降水插值结果的空间分布,认为BME插值过程中可以考虑数据本身以及辅助数据利用的不确定性,使降水空间化的结果更加真实客观,同时为合理利用辅助信息提供了一个新思路。     

Getting Away with the Stolen Vehicle: An Investigation of Journey-after-Crime*

Abstract

Analyses of criminals' travel patterns can provide significant suggestions to improve crime management. This study extends the investigation of criminals' travel behavior from journey-to-crime to journey-after-crime. Moreover, new methods are developed to examine the spatial patterns of location pairs when restricted by the underlying geographical process. The methods are employed to investigate criminals' journey-after-auto-theft in the city of Buffalo, New York. The analyses reveal that auto thieves' trips from vehicle-theft locations to the corresponding vehicle-recovery locations are local in nature. The travel distances are significantly shorter than the randomly simulated trips; the travel directions are biased from the random directions as well.     

土地利用变化预测的案例推理方法

当前,基于案例的推理(Case-Based Reasoning,CBR)在解决复杂的地学问题时.对地学案例的表达和历史案例的相似性计算与推理存在明显缺陷,需要在CBR的表达模型和空间相似性计算与推理算法进行拓展.本文针对土地利用变化问题,首先在分析土地利用变化各种定量方法基础上,提出利用CBR进行土地利用变化分析的研究思路:其次,针对土地利用变化的空间特性及隐含的空间关系特性.给出土地利用变化案例的表达模型,案例间内蕴空间关系抽取算法,以及考虑案例间空间关系的CBR相似性推理模型:最后,进行珠江口区域土地利用变化的CBR方法试验.预测精度达到80%.为了进一步评价CBR方法对土地利用变化预测的有效性.在实例部分采用同样的实验数据进行贝叶斯网络的预测方法实验.由两种方法对比可知.CBR是从复杂到简单进行地学问题求解的一种有效方法.     

Geodetic inversion for space–time distribution of fault slip with time-varying smoothing regularization

We have developed a new geodetic inversion method for space–time distribution of fault slip velocity with time-varying smoothing regularization in order to reconstruct accurate time histories of aseismic fault slip transients. We introduce a temporal smoothing regularization on slip and slip velocity through a Bayesian state space approach in which the strength of regularization (temporal smoothness of slip velocity) is controlled by a hyperparameter. The time-varying smoothing regularization is realized by treating the hyperparameter as a time-dependent stochastic variable and adopting a hierarchical Bayesian state space model, in which a prior distribution on the hyperparameter is introduced in addition to a conventional Bayesian state space model. We have tested this inversion method on two synthetic data sets generated by simulated aseismic slip transients. Results show that our method reproduces well both rapid changes of slip velocity and steady-state velocity without significant oversmoothing and undersmoothing, which has been hard to overcome by the conventional Bayesian approach with time-independent smoothing regularization. Application of this method to transient deformation in 2002 caused by a silent earthquake off the Boso peninsula, Japan, also shows similar advantages of this method over the conventional approach.     

Integrating algebraic multigrid method in spatial aggregation of massive trajectory data

The advanced technologies in location-based services and telecom have yield large volumes of trajectory data. Understanding these data effectively requires intuitive yet accurate visual analysis. The visual analysis of massive trajectory data is challenged by the numerous interactions among different locations, which cause massive clutter. This paper presents a new methodology for visual analysis by integrating algebraic multigrid (AMG) method in data aggregation. The non-parametric method helps to build a multi-layer node representation from a graph which is extracted from trajectory data. The comparison with AMG and other methods shows that AMG method is more advanced in both the spatial representation and the importance of nodes. The new method is tested with real-world dataset of cell-phone signalling records in Beijing. The results show that our method is suitable for processing and creating abstraction of massive trajectory dataset, revealing inherent patterns and creating intuitive and vivid flow maps.     

基于时空行为视角的犯罪地理创新研究框架

犯罪地理研究与时空行为领域的研究有着共同的理论基础,二者都强调时空间环境与人类行为的相互作用。犯罪行为是人类特殊行为的一种,相关实证前沿已开始重视不同犯罪相关主体（犯罪者、潜在受害者、警察等）时空行为规律的挖掘、日常活动的动态衡量及不同主体行为的交互等方面对犯罪发生的影响;时空行为研究中的活动空间、环境暴露、群体分异、活动交互等维度的成果可拓展至犯罪地理研究。近年来,两大领域的前沿成果不断涌现,但目前仍缺乏从时空行为视角对犯罪地理学研究进行系统梳理,并对两者的融合创新进行深入探讨。为此,本研究在梳理犯罪地理中时空行为的理论基础和评述犯罪者、潜在受害者、警察时空活动对犯罪时空格局的影响研究基础上,基于犯罪地理和时空行为领域的交叉维度构建犯罪时空行为创新研究的框架,尝试推进该交叉领域在理论、方法与应用等方面的发展。     

土壤植被大气模式中水分和能量传输研究进展

 在分析过去地-气间相互作用的物理过程、研究进展基础上,探讨了土壤-植被-大气系统中水分与能量的传输过程在模型中不同的计算方法。同时对不同计算方法进行对比,确定了分析土壤-植被-大气系统中水分和能量传输方法的优缺点,提出了解决我国干旱地区土壤-植被-大气系统中水分和能量传输的一些思路,强调加强干旱地区观测资料积累,采用实测资料不断对不同分析计算进行验证,找出适用于西北干旱区的参数化方法,建立干旱区土壤-植物-大气模型。     

基于共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络的空间演化及其影响因素——以北京市诈骗案件为例

当前,学界从犯罪人之间的关系模式、关系结构等方面对共同犯罪现象进行了一系列的研究,但缺少对犯罪人地域关系的稳定性分析。论文根据北京市2005、2010、2014年街头诈骗案件数据,利用社会网络原理构建了基于共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络模型,并利用网络分析等方法对参与共同犯罪的犯罪人地域关系网络的结构特征及其变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：在2005—2014年间,参与北京市共同犯罪的犯罪人籍贯地域的空间分布逐渐集中,并形成了以华北地区为主、多个地域中心并存的格局;犯罪人的地域关系网络小世界效应逐渐增强,并从幂律分布模式向指数分布模式发展;参与共同犯罪的犯罪人群中,北京籍犯罪人的影响力逐渐下降,而河北籍犯罪人的影响力逐渐上升;犯罪人地域关系网络的凝聚子群结构逐渐发生两极分化,出现了少数共同犯罪关系异常密切的犯罪人地域子群结构。针对犯罪人地域关系网络形成及演化的原因,论文从外来人口社会关系重构与亚文化的角度进行了分析和解释,对进一步开展犯罪人的共同犯罪关系模式研究具有一定的启示。     

Sex Offender Residential Movement Patterns: A Markov Chain Analysis

This article introduces a new approach to the analysis of changes in sex offender residences over time. Using a Markov chain framework, we analyze residential movement patterns of registered sex offenders in Hamilton County, Ohio, over a three-year period (2005–2007). Results indicate a 46 percent reduction in offenders violating spatial restriction zone policy as compared to a counterfactual case where offenders move as a function of housing distributions. Strong legacy effects are also found as offenders previously in violation of restriction policies move into other restricted zones at a higher rate than offenders who were previously in compliance with the policy. Parcels that previously were home to registered offenders also continue to attract offenders in future periods. Although we find differences in the probabilities of attracting offenders for parcels outside and inside restricted zones that are consistent with offender restrictive policies, these differences are actually significantly smaller than what holds under the counterfactual. Parcels in restricted zones continue to attract offenders at a higher rate than expected, despite the policy restrictions.     

区域尺度蒸散发遥感估算——反演与数据同化研究进展

遥感技术近年来在估算区域尺度蒸散发中应用广泛。不同方法在驱动数据、模型机理和适用范围往往存在很大差别。鉴于此,阐述了基于传统方法空间尺度扩展的遥感模型,经验统计公式,特征空间法,单源、双源垂向能量平衡余项法等几类的遥感蒸散发反演方法,简要介绍了三温模型、非参数化模型、半经验模型、集成模型等常用模型。同时,分析了遥感数据同化实现连续估算区域蒸散发的主要思路,综述了基于能量平衡和基于复杂过程模型的数据同化的原理、方法演进及常用同化算法等。最后,探讨了各类区域蒸散发遥感方法的优劣、展望了模型机理完善、不确定性研究、结果验证等与蒸散发直接反演和数据同化相关的研究方向。     

Long-range earthquake forecasting based on a single predictor

Summary. For a long-term predictor from which a joint distribution of earthquake occurrence time and magnitude has been obtained, and also a record of past successes, false alarms and failures, Bayesian statistical methods yield predictive information of the kind needed as a basis for decision-making on precautionary measures. The information is presented in terms of risk refinement, intensity probability and success probability. After the event the relative likelihood that a prediction was a success or failure can be estimated. Comparisons can also be made of the performance of different forecasting models. The application of these methods is illustrated by an example based on the proposed swarm-magnitude predictor.     

定量遥感尺度转换方法研究进展

首先对遥感科学和气象学、水文学、生态学、地理学和的尺度概念及其转换方法进行了区分。其次对遥感数据空间尺度转换方法的国内外研究进展情况进行了系统梳理,重点比对了目前空间尺度转换常用6种转换方法：统计转换法、分类转换法、数据融合转换方法、分形分析法、基于局域动态模型的转换方法和基于物理意义尺度转换方法及其各自所属方法的优点和缺点。再次以遥感时间尺度转换应用最为广泛的地表蒸散发和农业旱情监测等2个领域为例,对遥感时间尺度转换方法进行了总结。最后预测了今后定量遥感尺度转换研究可能的研究重点,以期为今后更好地开展尺度效应和尺度转换研究工作提供参考。     

区域经济地理学方法论建设初探

区域经济地理学方法论建设落后于学科实践和理论研究的进展,有必要处理好方法论与实践、理论及相邻学科的关系,寻求一般研究方法与学科具体方法的有机结合,健全并规范学科分支内容的研究方法,使之形成面向实践的方法体系。应通过借鉴吸收横断学科、相邻学科方法,应用现代技术手段,建设符合学科实践和理论发展要求的方法论。     

空间尺度转换数据精度评价的准则和方法

空间尺度问题是地理学、生态学和水文学等多个学科的基础科学问题之一。空间数据尺度转换是将数据从一个空间尺度转换到另一个空间尺度的过程, 它是尺度科学研究的重要内容之一。对尺度转换后的成果数据深入分析, 提炼尺度转换成果数据精度评价的原则、指标以及模型方法, 这对正确选择和应用尺度转换成果数据具有重要意义。在详细评述尺度和尺度转换研究概念、内容和主要进展的基础上, 本文主要从数据处理、地图学角度出发, 提出了空间数据尺度转换精度评价的3 项基本准则, 即保持构成信息守恒、保持面积信息守恒、保持区域空间格局和形态信息守恒。继而据此将当前常见的指标进行了梳理和归并;根据上述准则和指标, 结合GIS 方法、常规统计方法、地统计方法等, 给出了上述评价指标的计算模型及其应用方法和典型案例。最后指出, 在实际应用中需结合研究目标, 针对性选择尺度转换效应函数, 通过开展模型模拟和对比分析, 最终确定合适的尺度转换方法。     

Personalising the viewshed: Visibility analysis from the human perspective

Viewshed analysis remains one of the most popular GIS tools for assessing visibility, despite the recognition of several limitations when quantifying visibility from a human perspective. The visual significance of terrain is heavily influenced by the vertical dimension (i.e. slope, aspect and elevation) and distance from the observer, neither of which are adjusted for in standard viewshed analyses. Based on these limitations, this study aimed to develop a methodology which extends the standard viewshed to represent visible landscape as more realistically perceived by a human, called the ‘Vertical Visibility Index’ (VVI). This method was intended to overcome the primary limitations of the standard viewshed by calculating the vertical degrees of visibility between the eye-level of a human and the top and bottom point of each visible cell in a viewshed. Next, the validity of the VVI was assessed using two comparison methods: 1) the known proportion of vegetation visible as assessed through imagery for 10 locations; and 2) standard viewshed analysis for 50 viewpoints in an urban setting. While positive, significant correlations were observed between the VVI values and both comparators, the correlation was strongest between the VVI values and the image verified, known values (r = 0.863, p = 0.001). The validation results indicate that the VVI is a valid method which can be used as an improvement on standard viewshed analyses for the accurate representation of landscape visibility from a human perspective.     

Joint three-dimensional inversion of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer based on automatic differentiation: sensitivity calculation, verification, and synthetic examples

Inverse methods are useful tools not only for deriving estimates of unknown parameters of the subsurface, but also for appraisal of the thus obtained models. While not being neither the most general nor the most efficient methods, Bayesian inversion based on the calculation of the Jacobian of a given forward model can be used to evaluate many quantities useful in this process. The calculation of the Jacobian, however, is computationally expensive and, if done by divided differences, prone to truncation error. Here, automatic differentiation can be used to produce derivative code by source transformation of an existing forward model. We describe this process for a coupled fluid flow and heat transport finite difference code, which is used in a Bayesian inverse scheme to estimate thermal and hydraulic properties and boundary conditions form measured hydraulic potentials and temperatures. The resulting derivative code was validated by comparison to simple analytical solutions and divided differences. Synthetic examples from different flow regimes demonstrate the use of the inverse scheme, and its behaviour in different configurations.