1976–2010年波兰湖泊水位变化（英文）

The paper presents the analysis of tendencies in water level changes in 32 lakes in Poland during 1976–2010.Series of monthly,seasonal,and annual precipitation and air temperature for 9 meteorological stations were also studied.The trend analysis for all of the studied series of water levels in lakes showed high spatial and temporal variability.Series of annual water levels in the case of 6 lakes showed statistically significant increasing tendencies,and in 7 lakes,significant decreasing trends.Series of annual amplitudes in the majority of lakes(22) showed a decreasing trend,but they were statistically significant only in three cases.The tendencies for air temperature fluctuations are more statistically significant than precipitation.The key role in determining water level changes is played by local factors,particularly including human economic activity,obscuring the effect of natural factors on water level changes.The paper describes cases of changes in water levels in lakes under anthropopressure related to among others: agricultural irrigations,hydropower infrastructure,water transfers,navigation,or mining.     

基于多源遥感数据的青藏高原中南部地区湖泊系统变化监测（英文）

Lakes in the Tibetan Plateau are considered sensitive responders to global warming.Variations in physical features of lake systems such as surface area and water level are very helpful in understanding regional responses to global warming in recent decades.In this study,multi-source remote sensing data were used to retrieve the surface area and water level time series of five inland lakes in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau over the past decades.Changes in water level and surface area of the lakes were investigated.The results showed that the water level of three lakes(Puma Yumco,Taro Co,Zhari Namco) increased,with expanding surface area,while the water levels of the other two lakes(Paiku Co,Mapam Yumco) fell,with shrinking area.The water levels of the lakes experienced remarkable changes in 2000–2012 as compared with 1976–1999.Spatially,lakes located at the southern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau showed consistency in water level changes,which was different from lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau.     

1910-2014年湖南省均一化气温序列构建及其变化特征（英文）

Based on the statistical method and the historical evolution of meteorological stations,the temperature time series for each station in Hunan Province during 1910–2014 are tested for their homogeneity and then corrected.The missing data caused by war and other reasons at the 8 meteorological stations which had records before 1950 is filled by interpolation using adjacent observations,and complete temperature time series since the establishment of stations are constructed.After that,according to the representative analysis of each station in different time periods,the temperature series of Hunan Province during 1910–2014 are built and their changes are analyzed.The results indicate that the annual mean temperature has a significant warming trend during 1910–2014 and the seasonal mean temperature has the largest rising amplitude in winter and spring,followed by autumn,but no significant change in summer.Temperature variation over Hunan Province has several significant warm-cold alternations and more frequent than that in whole China.Annual and seasonal mean temperatures except summer and autumn have abrupt warming changes in the recent 100 years.The wavelet analysis suggests that the annual and four seasonal mean temperatures in recent 100 years have experienced two climatic shifts from cold to warm.     

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010, China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the number of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km² during 1973–2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973–1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km², while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km² only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.     

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010,China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the nttmber of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during 1973-2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973-1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.     

Lake evolution and its implication for environmental changes in China during 1950–2000

Lakes in China have undergone considerable environmental changes during the past 50 years, e.g. lake level, water area changes, as did in the past several thousands years. The enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation, application of chemical fertilizer, land use and cover, irrigation and industrialization in the catchment etc., have played an important role on the recent decades＇ changes of these lakes, although constrained to a great extent by the natural impact. Comparative study on variations of lake volume （water level, depth and area） in the eastern and western lake regions of China during 1950-2000 indicated that, lake volume in the eastern region had approximately undergone a two-stage change, i.e. a dramatic decrease from the 1950s to 1970s, and a continuous increase between the 1980s and 1990s; while, in the western region, lake volume had been decreasing nearly all the time. Further studies on some typical lakes concluded that, climatic change was a primary factor for the variations of lake volume during the past 50 years, although human activities showed important effect.     

Toward sustainable desertification reversion: A case study in Horqin Sandy Land of northern China

Desertification reversion is an interactive process involving climate, land use change, and water processes. In order to reveal the relationship between desertification reversion and these factors, we analyzed historical data on precipitation, air temperature, desertified land changes, underground water tables, and water body changes in Naiman County in the central part of Horqin Sandy Land. Our analysis showed that during 1961-2010 the annual precipitation fluctuated dramatically and has decreased fairly consistently in recent years. The air temperature increased by 0.50-1.25 °C, and the minimum temperature increased more obviously. The desertified land area increased from 42,300 km2 in 1959 to 62,000 km2 in 1985, and then declined to about 50,000 km2 in 2010. The underground water tables have been lowered by about 10 m in the past 30 years, and declined more rapidly in recent years. Desertified land is significantly related to the amount of total cropland, and underground water tables are significantly correlated with annual precipitation and the amount of irrigated cropland. Therefore, it is necessary to pursue sustainable desertification reversion without compromising the capacity for local development and restoration of degraded land, through application of appropriate management measures for improving water availability in this region.     

长江通过江湖水文水动力交互对其支流水域东洞庭湖的影响（英文）

The blocking or reversing effect of the downstream trunk river on its tributary lakes is an essential aspect of river-lake hydraulics.To measure how and the extent to which a trunk river can influence its tributary lakes,we made a case study in Changjiang River and one of its tributary lakes,Lake East Dongting(Lake ED)during a 35-year study period(1980–2014).Specifically,we investigated Lake ED’s discharge ability into Changjiang River using stage-discharge relationship curves,and hence the changes of the lake discharge ability under different hydrologic conditions of the Changjiang River.The results show that (1) the Changjiang River does exert a huge impact on the water regimes of Lake ED.And this impact varies seasonally.A variation of 3000in Changjiang River’s runoff would change the lake water level by about 1.1 min dry seasons,by 0.4 min wet seasons,and by 0.6 m during severe summer floods.(2)Changes in the Changjiang River runoff triggered by the Three Gorges Dam since 2003 have led to dramatic water regime variations in Lake ED.Other factors,including reduction of lake inflow and the lake bed erosion,also exacerbated the water regime variations in Lake ED.     

1951–2010年中国农业水热气候条件的时空变化（英文）

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951-2010 released by the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluated the changes in the heat and moisture conditions of crop growth. An average value of ten years was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in the agricultural hydrothermal conditions within a 1 km2 grid. Next, the inter-annual changing trend was simulated by regression analysis of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that the contour lines for temperature and accumulated temperatures(the daily mean temperature ≥0°C) increased significantly in most parts of China, and that the temperature contour lines had all moved northwards over the past 60 years. At the same time, the annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, though more than half of the meteorological stations did not pass the significance test. However, the mean temperatures in the hottest month and the coldest month exhibited a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010. In addition, the 0°C contour line gradually moved from the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Basin to the Yellow River Basin. All these changes would have a significant impact on the distribution of crops and farming systems. Although the mechanisms influencing the interactive temperature and precipitation changes on crops were complex and hard to distinguish, the fact remained that these changes would directly cause corresponding changes in crop characteristics.     

通过现代观测来检验湖面蒸发对中国干旱、半干旱区湖泊水位变化的影响(英文)

Qinghai Lake and Zhuye Lake, ~400 km apart, are located in the northwest margin of the Asian summer monsoon. Water of these two lakes mostly comes from the middle and eastern parts of the Qilian Mountains. Previous studies show that the Holocene climate changes of the two lakes implied from lake records are different. Whether lake evaporation plays a role in asynchronous Holocene climate changes is important to understand the lake records. In this paper, we used modern observations beside Qinghai Lake and Zhuye Lake to test the impact factors for lake evaporation. Pan evaporation near the two lakes is mainly related to relative humidity, temperature, vapor pressure and sunshine duration. But tem-perature has different impacts to lake evaporation of the two lakes, which can affect Holocene millennial-scale lake level changes. In addition, differences in relative humidity on the millen-nial-scale would be more significant, which also can contribute to asynchronous lake records.     

Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation.Based on observed annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and runoff time-series datasets during 1958–2012 within the Kaidu River Basin,the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and identified by applying several classic methods,including standardization methods,Kendall's W test,the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test,wavelet power spectrum analysis,and the rescaled range(R/S) approach.The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method.The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature.The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation,having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year,10-year,and 38-year quasi-periodicities.While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation,the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature,which directly drives glacier-and snow-melt processes.R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future.This work can improve the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin,a regional sustainable socio-economic development.     

2000-2011年可可西里地区主要湖泊冰情时空变化（英文）

Lake ice phenology,i.e.the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover,is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate.Based on the boundary data of lakes,some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data,the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000–2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology.And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) The time of freeze-up start(FUS) and freeze-up end(FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October–early November,mid-November – early December,respectively.The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month.The time of break-up start(BUS) and break-up end(BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed,and appeared in the early February – early June,early May – early June,respectively.The average ice duration(ID) and the complete ice duration(CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days,respectively.(2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years.Specifically,the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend.In contrast,the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance.This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake.The average rates of ID and CID were –2.21 d/a and –1.91 d/a,respectively.(3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors.The temperature,lake area,salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice.However,the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well.(4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process.The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.     

Validation of the effects of temperature simulated by multi-model ensemble and prediction of mean temperature changes for the next three decades in China

Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation, we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi- model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of 1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C.     

1956-2003年拉萨河流域径流变化趋势

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.     

Effect of Three Gorges Dam on Poyang Lake water level at daily scale based on machine learning

Lake water level is an essential indicator of environmental changes caused by natural and human factors. The water level of Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China,has exhibited a dramatic variation for the past few years, especially after the completion of the Three Gorges Dam(TGD). However, there is a lack of more accurate assessment of the effect of the TGD on the Poyang Lake water level(PLWL) at finer temporal scales(e.g., the daily scale). Here, we used three machine learning models, namely, an Artificial Neural Network(ANN), a Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous input(NARX), and a Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU), to simulate the daily lake level during 2003–2016. We found that machine learning models with historical memory(i.e., the GRU model) are more suitable for simulating the PLWL under the influence of the TGD. The GRU-based results show that the lake level is significantly affected by the TGD regulation in the different operation stages and in different periods. Although the TGD has had a slight but not very significant impact on the yearly decline of the PLWL, the blocking or releasing of water at the TGD at certain moments has caused large changes in the lake level. This machine-learning-based study sheds light on the interactions between Poyang Lake and the Yangtze River regulated by the TGD.     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000,with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m^3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m^3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.     

长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli- matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

中国能源消费与气候变化的关系

Energy consumption has an inevitable connection with economic level and climate. Based on selected data covering annual total energy consumption and its composition and that of all kinds of energy in 1953-1999, the annual residential energy consumption and the coal and electricity consumption in 1980-1999 in China, the acreage of crops under cultivation suffered from drought and flood annually and gross domestic product (GDP) in 1953-1999 in the whole country, and mean daily temperature data from 29 provincial meteorological stations in the whole country from 1970 to 1999, this paper divides energy consumption into socio-economic energy consumption and climatic energy consumption in the way of multinomial. Itchanges between the climate energy consumption andalso goes further into the relations and their changes between the climate energy consumptionenergy consumption and the economic level inand climate factor and between the socio-economic energy between the climate energy level in China with the method of statistical analysis. At present, there are obvious transitions in the changing relationships of the energy consumption to economy and climate, which comprises the transition of economic system from resource-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry and the transition of climatic driving factors of the energy consumption from driven by the disasters of drought and flood to driven by temperature.     

巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊与地下水的补给来源及化学组成(英文)

Based on the analysis of ion chemical composition of lake water and shallow groundwater in the Badain Jaran Desert, this paper discussed the characteristics of ion chemical composition, spatial variation of lake water, and possible supply sources of lake water and groundwater in the desert areas. The results show that the pH, salinity, TDS and electrical conductivity of the lake water are greater than those of groundwater. The ion con-tents of water samples are dominated by Na+ and Cl?. Most of the higher salinity lakes are Na (K)-Cl-(SO4) type, and a few of low salinity lakes belong to the Na-(Mg)-(Ca)-Cl-(SO4)-(HCO3) type. Most of the groundwater is Na-(Ca)-(Mg)-Cl-(SO4)-(HCO3) type, attributed to subsaline lake, and only a few present the Na-Cl-SO4 type, flowing under saline lake. The pH, salinity, TDS and electrical conductivity in the southeastern lakes are relatively low, and there are slightly alkaline lakes. The pH, salinity, TDS and electrical conductivity in the northern lakes are much greater than those of the southeastern lakes, and the northern lakes are moderately alkaline and saline ones. In the southeastern part of the Badain Jaran Desert, the ion chemical characteristics of the lake water from south to north show a changing trend of sub-saline →saline→hypersaline. The changing trend of chemical compositions of ions in recent 9 years indicates that most of the ion contents have a shade of reduction in Boritaolegai, Badain, Nuoertu and Huhejilin lakes, which state clearly that the amount of fresh water supply is increasing in the 9-year period. The ion chemical composition of the lake water reveals that the flow direction of lake water is from southeast to northwest in the Badain Jaran Desert. The ion chemical composition, moisture content of sand layer water level height and hierarchical cluster analysis of the lake water and groundwater demonstrate that the lake water is mainly supplied by local rainfall and infiltration of precipitation in Yabulai Mountains and Heishantou Mountain, and the supply from the Qilian Mountains is almost impossible.     

1961-2010年三江源地区气温变化与突变分析(英文)

In this study, a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1961-2010) from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region of Qinghai Province (THRHR) was used to analyze the climate change. The temperature variation and abrupt change analysis were examined by using moving average, linear regression, Spline interpo-lation, Mann-Kendall test and so on. Some important conclusions were obtained from this research, which mainly contained four aspects as follows. (1) There were several cold and warm fluctuations for the annual and seasonal average temperature in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions, but the temperature in these regions all had an obviously rising trend at the statistical significance level, especially after 2001. The spring, summer, autumn and annual average temperature increased evidently after the 1990s, and the winter average temperature exhibited an obvious upward trend after entering the 21st century. Except the standard value of spring temperature, the annual and seasonal temperature standard value in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions increased gradually, and the upward trend for the standard value of winter average temperature indicated significantly. (2) The tendency rate of annual average temperature in the THRHR was 0.36℃10a?1, while the tendency rates in the Yellow River Headwater Region (YERHR), Lancangjiang River Headwater Region (LARHR) and Yangtze River Headwater Region (YARHR) were 0.37℃10a?1, 0.37℃10a?1 and 0.34℃10a?1 respectively. The temperature increased significantly in the south of Yushu County and the north of Nangqian County. The rising trends of temperature in winter and autumn were higher than the upward trends in spring and summer. (3) The abrupt changes of annual, summer, autumn and winter average temperature were found in the THRHR, LARHR and YARHR, and were detected for the summer and autumn average temperature in the YERHR. The abrupt changes of annual and summer average temperatures were mainly in the late 1990s, while the abrupt changes of autumn and winter average temperatures ap-peared primarily in the early 1990s and the early 21st century respectively. (4) With the global warming, the diversities of altitude and underlying surface in different parts of the Tibetan Plateau were possibly the main reasons for the high increasing rate of temperature in the THRHR.