由热带气旋MATTHEW引起的非潮汐负荷效应影响

热带气旋能在短期内造成海水和大气质量的重新分布,使得近海地表受力发生变化,进而产生非潮汐负荷形变,对现今高精度大地测量的影响已不容忽视.为了保证空间大地测量结果的精度和稳定性,热带气旋引起的地表形变必须进行有效的估计.因此本文联合NOS、GLOSS验潮站数据与海潮模型,通过获取非潮汐残余量分析了热带气旋“MATTHEW”引起的风暴潮.利用ECCO海洋环流模型、ERAin大气再分析模型、HUGO-m海洋动力学模型,分别估计了“MATTHEW”引起非潮汐海洋负荷、非潮汐大气负荷、动力学响应下非潮汐海洋负荷对地表位移的影响,结果表明热带气旋影响下的广大区域地表都不同程度受到非潮汐负荷的作用,最大位移分别达到-9.13 mm、3.31 mm、-6.11 mm,并且加入动力学响应的非潮汐海洋负荷要普遍大于IB(Inverted Barometer)响应下的结果.在对比不同位置站点所受负荷差异时,发现“大陆站”非潮汐海洋负荷形变普遍大于“岛屿站”,而“岛屿站”更易受非潮汐大气负荷的影响.     

联合卫星重力、卫星测高和海洋资料研究中国南海海平面变化

利用卫星测高、GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)卫星重力和海洋实测与模式资料,在季节和年际尺度上,探讨了海水比容变化和海水质量变化对中国南海海平面变化的影响.在季节尺度上,利用测高和ECCO(Estimation of the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean)模式得到的南海海水质量引起的海平面变化的周年振幅和GRACE卫星独立观测的结果在地理分布上有很好的一致性.GRACE卫星观测到海水质量引起的南海平均海平面变化具有明显的季节性变化,其周年振幅为(2.7±0.4)cm;利用另一种独立的方法(测高减比容)得到的平均海平面周年振幅为(2.7±0.3)cm,两者符合得很好.在年际尺度上,南海平均海平面变化表现出明显的年际变化特征,且主要为比容海平面变化的贡献.卫星测高结果表明,1993～2009年的南海平均海平面变化为(5.5±0.7)mm/a,明显高于同期全球平均海平面变化趋势(3.3±0.4)mm/a.GRACE卫星观测到的海水质量变化没有表现出明显的趋势信号,这说明南海整体上与周边海域或陆地水的水循环是平衡的.     

非构造形变对GPS连续站位置时间序列的影响和修正

GPS观测得到的地壳形变场通常包含有构造形变与非构造形变二类信息, 去除其中的非构造形变信息对于有效运用GPS数据研究构造形变场至关重要. 本文运用国际卫星对地观测资料及各类地球物理模型, 定量计算海潮、大气、积雪和土壤水、海洋非潮汐4项负荷效应造成的地壳非构造形变, 并以此研究和修正这些非构造形变对中国地壳运动观测网络GPS基准站位置时间序列的影响. 研究发现此4项负荷效应, 特别是大气、积雪和土壤水, 对于测站垂向位置的影响显著. 通过模型改正可以使测站垂向位置的RMS降低～1 mm, 占其总量的～11％. 对于垂向时间序列的周年项部分, 这一改正可降低其振幅的37％. 研究还表明经过地球物理模型改正和周年、半周年谐波拟合改正的时间序列比起仅经过周年、半周年谐波拟合改正的时间序列更为平滑, 表明地球物理模型改正对于消除非构造形变场的作用不是周年、半周年谐波拟合改正所能替代的.     

中国区域IGS基准站坐标时间序列非线性变化的成因分析

GPS坐标时间序列呈现显著的季节性变化,通常认为大气压、非潮汐海洋负载及水文负载(统称为地表质量负载)是引起测站谐波变化的主要因素.本文计算了不同地表质量负载造成的测站位移,以此修正中国区域11个IGS基准站的坐标时间序列.建立了地球物理现象与测站季节性变化及噪声特性之间的初步数值联系,认为其会造成测站的噪声特性变化,主要表现为带通及随机漫步噪声特征,且仅能减小测站U分量的周年运动,但并不是造成测站U分量半周年运动及水平方向周年运动的主要原因.深入分析了造成中国区域IGS基准站非线性变化的其他可能因素,重点探讨了周日(S1)、半周日(S2)大气潮汐对基准站周年振幅的贡献,由此提出S1、S2大气潮汐是造成中国区域IGS基准站周年运动,尤其是中南部测站垂向周年运动的主要因素之一.     

南极中山和长城站重力潮汐观测研究

利用3台LaCoste-Romberg型弹簧重力仪（G-589、ET-20和ET-21）在南极中山站和长城站的长期重力潮汐观测资料，在武汉国际重力潮汐基准上精密测定了中山站和长城站的重力潮汐参数，其中主波振幅因子的标准偏差优于0.5％．各潮波的观测振幅在中山站比在长城站的小得多，两站周日潮（O1）的观测振幅因子相差约7％，而半日潮（M2）的观测振幅因子相差超过40％，气压和温度等气象因素的变化对观测结果的影响很明显．海潮负荷对两台站潮汐观测的影响非常显著，采用Schwiderski全球海潮模型对观测结果作海潮负荷重力改正．结果表明，经海潮改正后，各潮波的观测残差有较大幅度的减小，但是，由于采用的海潮模型没有顾及台站近区的海潮负荷效应，所以，O1 波的振幅因子对相应理论潮汐模型值之间存在大约4％（中山站）和9％（长城站）的偏差．      

水质量分布变化对重力观测的影响

利用全球7000多个陆地气象台站观测资料、TOPEX/Poseidon卫星测高资料、多层海水温盐度数据和负荷格林函数,采用数值积分法,计算了陆地水储量及海水质量分布变化引起我国20个测站的重力变化.结果表明,我国一些测站观测的重力受水质量迁移影响超过3μGal,可见在应用重力仪观测资料研究地球动力学时,有必要作水负荷改正.另外,文中还对武汉测站的超导重力仪观测的残差和水负荷的计算结果作了比较,并讨论了不同的地球模型及气象数据对计算测站重力的影响.     

利用GRACE卫星重力资料解算气候驱动的地表周年垂直形变

卫星重力和GPS测量技术可以监测地表流体(大气、海洋和陆地水)质量季节性迁移引起的地表周年形变;与陆地水等地表流体模型综合模拟的地表形变相比,卫星重力的形变监测结果避免了模型的精度不确定性带来的误差.本文利用前60阶GRACE卫星时变重力资料和“去相关”、组合滤波两类滤波方法分别解算了中国及邻区的地表季节性垂直形变,并与区内42个GPS台站上观测到的季节性信号进行了比较,发现采用“去相关”滤波方法处理后的结果优于采用组合滤波处理后的结果.文中采用“去相关”滤波方法,GRACE解算的周年垂直形变的振幅、相位和GPS结果总体上一致;少数站上GRACE和GPS得到的振幅或相位相差较大,主要因素可能与GPS解算策略、GPS观测资料的连续性或局部大气、水文过程等地球物理因素有关.在中国及邻区的陆地上GRACE解算的周年垂直形变的振幅最小值出现在TASH台站东南,约1×10^-3 m;最大值出现在恒河-澜沧江流域,可达10×10^-3 m.文中的结果证实了在中国及邻区可以用GRACE卫星重力这种新手段监测大尺度的地表周年垂直形变.     

武汉国际重力潮汐基准研究

通过综合分析8台重力仪潮汐观测结果,精密确定了武汉国际重力潮汐基准值.与Dehant重力潮汐模型同时考虑(1)全球卫星测高海潮资料和(2)Schwiderski海潮加中国近海海潮资料的结果相比,振幅因子差和相位滞后差分别为5.2‰,3.6‰和0,16°,0,08°.该结果明显优于早期确定的基准值,说明利用长系列超导重力仪观测同时考虑精密海洋负荷和地核近周日摆动效应是提高国际重力潮汐基准的重要途径.     

冰盖消融的海平面指纹变化及其对GRACE监测结果的影响

全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显,直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡,以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应,研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应（SAL）与地球极移反馈的影响,借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心（Center for Space Research,CSR）发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据（RL05）,结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数,反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布,并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化,结果表明：格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势,变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a,由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低,最高可达约-0.6 cm·a^-1;而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一,导致西南极近海相对海平面下降,而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升,最高可达约0.2 cm·a^-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主,平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a^-1,部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出（例如北美与澳大利亚）,高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外,本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响,经此项影响校正后的结果表明：海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%,建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时,应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响.     

滇西地区GPS时间序列中陆地水载荷形变干扰的GRACE分辨与剔除

利用"中国大陆构造环境监测网络"在云南西部地区的13个连续GPS观测站和法国空间大地测量研究组Space Geodesy Research Group)的GRACE时变重力场资料,定量分析了该区域陆地水载荷所产生的非构造形变的量值和变化特点,探讨了利用GRACE分辨和剔除GPS观测中陆地水负荷所引起的非构造形变干扰的依据和模型.结果表明:滇西地区GPS坐标变化时间序列的垂向分量中,普遍包含有明显的年周期非构造形变波动,高值可达12mm,其中约42%源于陆地水迁徙变化所引起的负荷形变;通过主成份分析方法所获取的区域GPS共模误差与GRACE陆地水载荷形变序列的相关性高达0.87,若以GRACE扣除陆地水负荷形变,则滇西地区GPS网共模误差可消除约64%,且物理机制明确.然而,由于目前的GRACE只能有效分辨大约400km范围内陆地水载荷的整体变化,所以对于各GPS站点更加局部化的陆地水负荷非构造形变干扰,尚无法进行有效分辨.     

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth’s surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.     

Steric Sea-level Variations Inferred from Combined Topex/Poseidon Altimetry and GRACE Gravimetry

In this study, we propose to estimate the steric sea-level variations over a < 2-year period (April 2002 through December 2003) by combining global mean sea level (GMSL) based on Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimetry with time-variable geoid averaged over the oceans, as observed by the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite. In effect, altimetry-derived GMSL changes results from two contributions: Steric (thermal plus salinity) effects due to sea water density change and ocean mass change due to water exchange with atmosphere and continents. On the other hand, GRACE data over the oceans provide the ocean mass change component only. The paper first discusses the corrections to apply to the GRACE data. Then the steric contribution to the GMSL is estimated using GRACE and T/P data. Comparison with available thermal expansion based on in situ hydrographic data is performed. G. García: On leave from Space Geodesy Laboratory, Applied Mathematics Department, EPS, University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain.     

Sea-level rise: A review of recent past and near-future trends

Global mean sea level is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. Global warming will contribute to worldwide sea-level rise (SLR) from thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets. A number of studies, mostly using tide-gauge data from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, England, have obtained rates of global SLR within the last 100 years that range between 0·3 and 3 mm yr^?1, with most values concentrated between 1 and 2 mm yr^?1. However, the reliability of these results has been questioned because of problems with data quality and physical processes that introduce a high level of spatial and temporal variability. Sources of uncertainty in the sea-level data include variations in winds, ocean currents, river runoff, vertical earth movements, and geographically uneven distribution of long-term records. Crustal motions introduce a major source of error. To a large extent, these can be filtered by employing palaeo-sea-level proxies, and geophysical modelling to remove glacio-isostatic changes. Ultimately, satellite geodesy will help resolve the inherent ambiguity between the land and ocean level changes recorded by tide gauges. Future sea level is expected to rise by ～ 1 m, with a ‘best-guess’ value of 48 cm by the year 2100. Such rates represent an acceleration of four to seven times over present rates. Local land subsidence could substantially increase the apparent SLR. For example, Louisiana is currently experiencing SLR trends nearly 10 times the global mean rate. These recently reduced SLR estimates are based on climate models that predict a zero to negative contribution to SLR from Antarctica. Most global climate models (GCMs) indicate an ice accumulation over Antarctica, because in a warmer world, precipitation will exceed ablation/snow-melt. However, the impacts of attritional processes, such as thinning of the ice shelves, have been downplayed according to some experts. Furthermore, not all climate models are in agreement. Opposite conclusions may be drawn from the results of other GCMs. In addition, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is potentially subject to dynamic and volcanic instabilities that are difficult to predict. Because of the great uncertainty in SLR projections, careful monitoring of future sea-level trends by upgraded tide-gauge networks and satellite geodesy will become essential. Finally, because of the high spatial variability in crustal subsidence rates, wave climates and tidal regimes, it will be the set of local conditions (especially the relative sea-level rise), rather than a single global mean sea-level trend, that will determine each locality's vulnerability to future SLR.     

全球及中国近海海平面变化趋势研究进展及展望

海平面变化是全球气候系统变化的一个组成部分,是环境变化的重要指标,也会影响沿海区域及岛屿的生态环境甚至存亡.全球海平面变化由海水质量变化和比容海平面变化构成.海水质量变化主要是由于两极冰盖和高山区的冰川融化流入海洋所致;比容海平面变化是由海水的温度和盐度变化所引起的,其中温度变化是最主要的因素.本文介绍了海平面变化各种监测技术的发展过程,并对海平面变化的研究现状进行了总结.所有研究成果均表明,近100多年以来,全球海平面一直处于上升态势;近几十年以来,海平面呈现加快上升并且越来越快的趋势.目前仍然存在一些问题:人们还没有完全掌握海平面变化规律,对未来海平面变化预测有较大不确定性;深海缺乏实测数据;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(ENSO)的变化规律以及对海平面的影响;GRACE陆地与海洋信号无法完全分离以及GRACE与GRACE-FO之间的一致性分析等.这些问题都需要进一步开展研究.     

Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature in a climate simulation of the past millennium

The possibility of using global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change or the global mean ocean heat-flux as predictors to statistically estimate the change of global mean sea-level is explored in the context of a long climate simulation of the past millennium with the climate model ECHO-G. Such relationships have recently been proposed to by-pass the difficulty of estimating future sea-level changes based on simulations with coarse-resolution climate models. It is found that, in this simulation, a simple linear relationship between mean temperature and the rate of change of sea level does not exist. A regression parameter linking both variables, and estimated in sliding 120-year windows, varies widely along the simulation and, in some periods, even attains negative values. The ocean heat-flux and the rate-of-change of mean temperature seem to better capture the rate-of-change of sea level due to thermal expansion.     

What dominates sea level at the coast: a case study for the Gulf of Guinea

Sea level variations and extreme events are a major threat for coastal zones. This threat is expected to worsen with time because low-lying coastal areas are expected to become more vulnerable to flooding and land loss as sea level rises in response to climate change. Sea level variations in the coastal ocean result from a combination of different processes that act at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the relative importance of processes causing coastal sea level variability at different time-scales is evaluated. Contributions from the altimetry-derived sea-level (including the sea level rise due to the ocean warming and land ice loss in response to climate change), dynamical atmospheric forcing induced sea level (surges), wave-induced run-up and set-up, and astronomical tides are estimated from observational datasets and reanalyses. As these processes impact the coast differently, evaluating their importance is essential for assessment of the local coastline vulnerability. A case study is developed in the Gulf of Guinea over the 1993–2012 period. The leading contributors to sea level variability off Cotonou differ depending on the time-scales considered. The trend is largely dominated by processes included in altimetric data and to a lesser extent by swell-waves run-up. The latter dominates interannual variations. Swell-waves run-up and tides dominate subannual variability. Extreme events are due to the conjunction of high tides and large swell run-up, exhibiting a clear seasonal cycle with more events in boreal summer and a trend mostly related to the trend in altimetric-derived sea-level.     

Regional and interannual variability in sea level over 2002–2009 based on satellite altimetry, Argo float data and GRACE ocean mass

In this study, we have estimated the different sea level components (observed sea level from satellite altimetry, steric sea level from in situ hydrography—including Argo profiling floats, and ocean mass from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; GRACE), in terms of regional and interannual variability, over 2002–2009. We compute the steric sea level using different temperature (and salinity) data sets processed by different groups (SCRIPPS, CLS, IPRC, and NOAA) and first focus on the regional variability in steric and altimetry-based sea level. In addition to El Nino–La Nina signatures, the observed and steric sea level data show clear impact of three successive Indian Ocean Dipoles in 2006, 2007, and 2008 in the Indian Ocean. We next study the spatial trend patterns in ocean mass signal by comparing GRACE observations over the oceans with observed minus steric sea level. While in some regions, reasonably good agreement is observed, discrepancy is noticed in some others due to still large regional trend errors in Argo and GRACE data, as well as to a possible (unknown) deep ocean contribution. In terms of global mean, interannual variability in altimetry-based minus steric sea level and GRACE-based ocean mass appear significantly correlated. However, large differences are reported when short-term trends are estimated (using both GRACE and Argo data). This prevents us to draw any clear conclusion on the sea level budget over the recent years from the comparison between altimetry-based, steric sea level, and GRACE-based ocean mass trends, nor does it not allow us to constrain the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment correction to apply to GRACE-based ocean mass term using this observational approach.     

The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in effecting changes in winter extreme high and low waters and storm surges in UK waters has been investigated with the use of a depth-averaged tide+surge numerical model. Spatial patterns of correlation of extreme high and low waters (extreme still water sea levels) with the NAO index are similar to those of median or mean sea level studied previously. Explanations for the similarities, and for differences where they occur, are proposed. Spatial patterns of correlations of extreme high and low and median surge with the NAO index are similar to the corresponding extreme sea-level patterns. Suggestions are made as to which properties of surges (frequency, duration, magnitude) are linked most closely to NAO variability. Several climate models suggest higher (more positive) average values of NAO index during the next 100 years. However, the impact on the UK coastline in terms of increased flood risk should be low (aside from other consequences of climate change such as a global sea-level rise) if the existing relationships between extreme high waters and NAO index are maintained.     

Effects of self-attraction and loading at a regional scale: a test case for the Northwest European Shelf

The impact of the self-attraction and loading effect (SAL) in a regional 2D barotropic tidal model has been assessed, a term with acknowledged and well-understood importance for global models but omitted for boundary-forced, regional models, for which the implementation of SAL is non-trivial due to its non-local nature. In order to understand the impact of the lack of SAL effects in a regional scale, we have forced a regional model of the Northwest European Continental Shelf and the North Sea (continental shelf model (CSM)) with the SAL potential field derived from a global model (GTSM), in the form of a pressure field. Impacts have been studied in an uncalibrated setup and with only tidal forcing activated, in order to isolate effects. Additionally, the usually adopted simple SAL parameterization, in which the SAL contribution to the total tide is parameterized as a percentage of the barotropic pressure gradient (typically chosen 10%), is also implemented and compared to the results obtained with a full SAL computation. A significant impact on M2 representation is observed in the English Channel, Irish Sea and the west (UK East coast) and south (Belgian and Dutch Coast) of the North Sea, with an impact of up to 20 cm in vector difference terms. The impact of SAL translates into a consistent M2 amplitude and propagation speeds reduction throughout the domain. Results using the beta approximation, with an optimal domain-wide constant value of 1.5%, show a somewhat comparable impact in phase but opposite direction of the impact in amplitude, increasing amplitudes everywhere. In relative terms, both implementations lead to a reduction of the tidal representation error in comparison with the reference run without SAL, with the full SAL approach showing further impacted, improved results. Although the overprediction of tidal amplitudes and propagation speeds in the reference run might have additional sources like the lack of additional dissipative processes and non-considered bottom friction settings, results show an overall significant impact, most remarkable in tidal phases. After showing evidence of the SAL impact in regional models, the question of how to include this physical process in them in an efficient way arises, since SAL is a non-local effect and depends on the instantaneous water levels over the whole ocean, which is non-trivial to implement.     

近四年全球海水质量变化及其时空特征分析

本文利用卫星重力、卫星测高和海洋温盐数据反演计算全球海水质量变化,并分析其时空变化特征.卫星重力数据利用2003年1月~2006年12月的GRACE月时变重力场球谐系数,同时考虑替换一阶项和C₂₀项,并进行了相关误差滤波、高斯滤波和陆地水文信号泄漏改正,计算得到海洋等效水高变化;利用相同时间跨度的卫星测高数据和海洋温度、盐度水文观测数据,计算全球海平面变化和比容海平面变化,反演得到海水质量变化.反演的两种海水质量变化的年际变化特征一致性较好.三种数据得到的长期趋势变化,与1993~2003年的结果相比,可以看出,海水质量变化加速,并已成为全球海平面上升的主要因素.