Oil ‘futures’: Shell’s Scenarios and the social constitution of the global oil market

This article explores the relationship between the oil industry’s representation of operating conditions in key sites of extraction and the constitution of oil futures markets. An analysis of Shell Oil’s recent Scenarios publications, the ‘Trilemma Scenarios to 2025’ and subsequent ‘Scramble and Blueprints Scenarios to 2050’, provides insight into both the (global) social construction of oil prices and the oil industry’s reaction to social resistance in its operating environment - whether in the form of movements for resource sovereignty or climate change activism. Examining the implications of these two Scenario publications for key sites of Shell investment, the Nigerian Niger Delta and the Canadian Tar Sands, the article demonstrates that understanding the discursive implications of ‘peak oil’ for the petroleum industry requires contextualizing discussions of ‘scarcity’ within business agents role in shaping oil futures markets, and private industry’s interest in the ongoing development of unconventional fossil fuel sources. While the role of deregulated futures trading receives little attention in the Shell Scenarios, speculative trading - and thus perception concerning supply among business agents - is central to shaping global oil prices and thus the social conditions of the oil market.     

Geographies of peak oil: The other carbon problem

This extended editorial introduction to a themed issue of Geoforum on geographies of peak oil has three objectives. First, it provides a concise account of the ’peak oil’ claim, identifying the key protagonists in the debate, and outlining different stances with regard to the timing, shape and composition (conventional vs. non-conventional hydrocarbons) of the peak. Second, after briefly characterising the limited engagement with peak oil by human geographers, it offers a provisional set of claims about what a geographical analysis of peak oil might yield. Finally, it introduces each of the papers and, in doing so, makes the case for a fuller and more sustained engagement by geography with this ’other carbon problem.’     

At the base of Hubbert’s Peak: Grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity

M. King Hubbert’s 1956 prediction of a ‘peak’ in US oil production has spurred a durable and divisive debate on the exhaustion of the petroleum resource. Pitting physical against economic explanations of resource scarcity, the peak oil debate has seemingly sunk into the well-worn grooves of a long history of scarcity debates. Yet, as this paper argues, this ‘stale dichotomy’ can partly be attributed to a severance from the contexts and ideas that informed Hubbert’s mathematical calculations. Specifically, this paper examines the broader influences on the peak oil model: Hubbert’s career in the newly formed field of geophysics; his personal concern with the relationship between energy and population growth; and his ties to Technocracy, Inc., a social movement originating in the US that aimed to replace political and business control with a group of specialist engineers and technicians. The paper further emphasizes the importance of institutional and political interests to the arguments launched against Hubbert, and in motivating change in this opposition over time. Last, it makes the case that the contemporary de-contextualization of Hubbert’s model has contributed towards a narrow focus of discussions within the oil industry and in certain governments on predicting the timing of a global peak, without addressing the wider questions implied by Hubbert’s model.     

Geographies of security and statehood in Norway’s ‘Battle of the North’

In this paper, we explore how ‘peak oil’ anxieties are woven into the spaces and practices of the state in Norway and the consequences of this for environmental justice and the public sphere more widely. We focus in particular on an ongoing struggle over access to hydrocarbon deposits in the Norwegian Arctic, the so-called ‘Battle of the North’. We use this dispute to highlight three wider theoretical points regarding (i) the continuing relevance of the state in the governing of nature-society relations, (ii) the increasingly fragmented and fluid nature of state space, and (iii) the significance of ‘security’ as a term around which social, economic and environmental tensions pivot. The paper concludes by reflecting on current efforts to prevent new oil activities in the north of Norway.     

Some things old, some things new: The spatial representations and politics of change of the peak oil relocalisation movement

Despite continued uncertainty about the physical realities and political, economic and social implications of peak oil, combined concerns about oil scarcity, climate change and globalisation has spawned an energetic relocalisation movement dedicated to achieving a comprehensive reduction in oil dependency through community-scale initiatives. This paper uses a discourse approach to examine the emergence, geographical spread and practices of the Transition Network, a UK-originated relocalisation movement now involving 186 local initiatives in the UK and other countries. We trace the movement’s drawing upon, and innovation from, discourses and techniques used by other grassroots environmental movements to promote a spatial representation of peak oil as an inevitable and geographically undiscriminating problem, and its use of addiction metaphors and participatory techniques to promote personal and community-scale energy descent initiatives as a viable and necessary alternative to globalisation. We also analyse the spatial representations and techniques used in the Network’s “rhizomic” spread across multiple localities around the world and embedding in communities where relocalisation initiatives are established. We conclude by examining the future challenges these spatial constructions of peak oil pose for the relocalisation movement.     

Eco-localisation as a progressive response to peak oil and climate change - A sympathetic critique

This paper critically but sympathetically examines eco-localisation as a response to ‘peak oil’ and to reduce the emission of CO₂ to avoid dangerous climate change. Rather than seeing the politics of climate change and peak oil as in some way ‘post-political’, the paper argues that protagonists of localised economies are developing radical new conceptions of livelihood and economy that directly cut against the logic of growth-based capitalist economic strategies and elite conceptualisations of economic development. Building on development theory, the paper develops a conceptualisation of ‘immanent’ and ‘intentional’ localisation, with the former a simple move by businesses of economic activities that have high transport costs closer to their markets. Advocates of intentional localisation are working more pro actively at grassroots level to develop local solutions to peak oil and climate change based on developing less resource-intensive yet enjoyable and fulfilling livelihoods in more localised economies. In discussing the contested nature of localisation, the paper engages with critiques of eco-localisation from neoliberal advocates and from the left, before concluding that localisation should be seen more as a different calculation of where economic activities would be located, which aims to reduce oil consumption and CO₂ emissions, rather than a call for autarky. The paper concludes by arguing that analyses of the scale of economic networks need to pay more attention of the materiality of oil consumption and CO₂ emissions, and that scales cannot be seen as socially constructed.     

Oil in parallax: Scarcity, markets, and the financialization of accumulation

Relations between oil scarcity, production, investment, and price have become increasingly mediated and shaped by financial markets. Yet, the mediation of finance is absent in peak oil narratives, which posit a direct relation between the availability of oil in the ground and its price on the market. The orthodox critique of peak oil deconstructs its basis in geological limits only to reproduce the argument from scarcity and reverse the relationship between the price of oil and its availability on the market. Both narratives are formulated in physical space and do not account for the degree to which the oil market has become infused by the logic of finance. Critical political economy, on the other hand, demonstrates the extent to which finance has transformed capital accumulation, only to render material production somewhat irrelevant to the accumulation of capital. This is equally problematic, given oil companies’ continuing investment in production and reserve expansion. The relation between accumulation, investment, and production under finance needs to be examined rather than discarded. I argue that finance has emancipated the circulation of oil in the world market from its circulation in physical space, fragmenting the oil market into a physical and a financial component, but reintegrating both under the dominance of financial logic without transcending their duality and their differences. I explicate this relation by examining the circulation of oil in trade and investment under the dictates of finance to open questions on current theorizations of oil scarcity in relation to prices, markets, and investment.     

陕北三叠纪煤田勘探中油页岩的地球物理测井效果

油页岩是一种重要的潜在能源,储量巨大,若折算成发热量,它的储量在化石燃料中仅次于煤而列第二位;若折算成页岩油,世界上油页岩储量约为4750亿t,相当于目前世界天然原油探明可采储量的5.4倍,因此油页岩的勘探与开发已成为世界性新能源开发的课题。本文针对综合地球物理测井曲线在油页岩上具体的反映特征进行了系统论述,对以后的勘探与开发利用具有重要意义。     

The ecological modernisation of SMEs in the UK’s construction industry

Ecological Modernisation (EM) theorists argue that businesses in industrialised nations are ecologically restructuring in response to market signals, and that economic actors increasingly perceive a business case for sustainability. Whilst UK policymakers urge companies to undertake environmental measures voluntarily on the basis that it will be good for business, a qualitative study exploring the environmental practices of small and medium-sized construction firms found that the opinions of owner-managers had little resonance with this ‘win-win’ rhetoric. Respondents did not perceive the financial returns to be gained from eco-efficiency measures to be significant enough to warrant the short-term investment in time and resources required to pursue them. Moreover, the market was not signalling that product value could be raised or that customers could be won by embracing environmental best practice. The paper concludes by questioning the UK government’s faith in EMs ‘win-win’ ideology to encourage the greening of industry.     

西北地区油页岩地质特征、资源现状及其开发利用条件分析

中国西北地区预测和查明的油页岩总资源/储量至少是400亿t,折合页岩油约20亿t,探明的储量多为小型—中型规模。油页岩矿床主要有3种类型:中、晚石炭世滨浅海相沉积矿床、晚二叠世湖湾-湖相沉积矿床以及中生代内陆湖泊相沉积矿床。不同矿区面积相差较大,油页岩单层厚度一般为1～5m,总厚度在不同矿区变化也较大。油页岩多为褐黑色、黑色,略具油脂光泽,含油率5%～10%,矿体多呈层状展布,中、晚石炭世和侏罗纪形成的油页岩矿床多与煤层共生,时代越新,油页岩稀土元素丰度越高。西北地区已查明的油页岩矿均位于大、中城市附近,具有较好的开发利用前景,内蒙古巴格毛德地区是很有远景的找矿区。     

中国海相油气田勘探实例之十三 塔里木盆地东河塘海相砂岩油田勘探与发现

东河塘油田位于新疆库车县,构造上隶属于塔里木盆地塔北隆起轮台凸起东河塘断裂构造带,是我国发现的第一个高产高丰度海相砂岩油田,它的发现是中国海相砂岩油气勘探理论和实践的一次重大突破。油田发现于1990年7月,至1994年探明石油地质储量3323.13×104t,天然气地质储量15.5×108m3,至2009年底累计产原油825.75×104t。石炭系东河砂岩油藏是东河塘油田的主体,其储层东河砂岩段是一套滨岸相砂体,具有厚度巨大、埋深大、储集性能好的特点;其油藏类型为块状底水背斜油藏,产能高,储量丰度高。论述了东河塘油田勘探与发现的历程,剖析了取得勘探成功的实践认识与意义。     

Hydrocarbons, popular protest and national imaginaries: Ecuador and Bolivia in comparative context

This paper examines contemporary struggles over hydrocarbon governance in Ecuador and Bolivia. Our comparative analysis illustrates the ways that petro-capitalism, nationalist ideologies, popular movements and place conjoin in the governance of oil and natural gas. In the case of Ecuador, state employees drew on their labor relations and political training to oppose the government’s efforts to privatize the state oil company. In Bolivia, urban popular movements opposed the privatization of the hydrocarbons industry and its domination by foreign firms. In both cases, hydrocarbons struggles involved the production of imaginative geographies of the nation and it hydrocarbon resources, which in turn drew on historical memories of nationhood. Whereas neoliberal political and economic restructuring sought to re-organize national hydrocarbons companies, redraw concessions, and draft new resource extraction laws, hydrocarbon movements aimed to counter these processes by re-centering hydrocarbon governance within a populist vision of the nation-state. In contrast to analyses of resource conflict in the environmental security and resource curse literatures, the cases of Ecuador and Bolivia demonstrate that such struggles cannot be reduced to models of opportunity structure, war profiteering, or resource scarcity (or abundance). Rather, these cases show that political economy and cultural politics are inseparable in the context of resource conflicts, which involve struggles over the meanings of development, citizenship and the nation itself.     

全球古生界海相碳酸盐岩大油气田特征及油气分布

古生界海相碳酸盐岩油气对中国能源安全具有重要意义。以全球古生界海相碳酸盐岩大油气田的最新资料为基础,系统统计分析了古生界海相碳酸盐岩大油气田的地质特征及其分布规律。截至2013年底,全球15个含油气盆地中共发现了89个古生界海相碳酸盐岩大油气田,油气可采储量达495.9×10⁸,t油当量,占全球海相碳酸盐岩层系油气总储量的20.9%。研究表明,大油气田分布在中东、前苏联、北美和亚太地区,其中,大油田主要分布于前苏联和北美,大气田则主要位于中东和亚太,20世纪70年代是大气田发现的高峰期。大油气田的油气主要来自古生界烃源岩,以志留系、石炭系、二叠系和泥盆系(按重要性排序)为主;烃源岩岩性主要为泥页岩、沥青质泥页岩和沥青质碳酸盐岩。盖层以蒸发岩和碎屑岩为主。层系上,油气主要富集于二叠系、石炭系和奥陶系,白云岩和生物礁储集层占重要地位。埋深上,储量分布相对集中的埋深为2500~3000,m、3500~4000,m和4000~4500,m,分别占总储量的52.6%、15.9%和9.5%。油气藏类型上,以构造圈闭为主,不过近年来发现的大油气田的非构造圈闭比例有所增大。建议中国古生界海相油气勘探应重视白云岩储集层,更重要的是,应加强深层海相碳酸盐岩层系油气成藏机理和分布主控因素的研究。     

Weibull模型在油气田早期开发方案设计中的应用

油气田开发早期勘探程度低，已知储层参数少，正确确定油气田开发方案是世界难题。制作Weibull开发模型的Qc/Qmax-ER图版的根据是探明储量、峰值产量及经济极限产量，假定采收率、生产年限，采用该图版油气田（藏）早期全局最优开发方案设计的方法，可以对整个开发期的各种开发指标进行预测。     

世界油页岩资源利用和发展趋势

世界油页岩资源丰富, 其探明储量换算成页岩油,远大于世界原油的探明储量。美国油页岩储量居世界首位, 其次则为俄罗斯、扎伊尔、巴西、加拿大、约旦、澳大利亚和中国。油页岩干馏制取页岩油始于19世纪上半叶的法国、英国、德国、西班牙等西欧国家。而后页岩油生产由于廉价原油的开采而衰落, 又由于世界石油危机而兴起; 100多年来、油页岩工业几经波折; 如今中国、爱沙尼亚和巴西拥有页岩油的工业生产。此外、爱沙尼亚、德国、中国和以色列则拥有油页岩燃烧产蒸汽发电的工业装置。当前、由于世界原油价格上涨,页岩油的生产在不少国家已有利可图, 中国、爱沙尼亚等国家正扩建、新建页岩油工厂; 蒙古、约旦等国正考虑筹建页岩油厂, 美国也计划对其丰富的油页岩资源进行加工利用。     

中国海相油气田勘探实例之十四 珠江口盆地深水区流花16-2轻质油田的发现与勘探

流花16-2油田发现于2010年5月。它是南海北部珠江口盆地近年发现的中型轻质油田,也是该区自营勘探以来发现的储量最大的油田。油田位于珠江口盆地番禺低凸起东端海域深水区,流花16-2构造为断块圈闭,储层为下中新统珠江组下段及上渐新统珠海组海相中细砂岩和生物碎屑灰岩,盖层为珠江组上段巨厚层海相泥岩,具有良好的储盖组合。油源来自油田南面的白云凹陷东凹古近系恩平组—文昌组烃源岩。油藏具有埋深浅、储量丰度高、原油密度低、测试产能高等特点。论述了油田的发现与勘探历程以及油田的基本地质特征,总结了取得勘探突破的实践认识与启示。     

辽宁油页岩资源及潜力分析

油页岩是重要的有机矿产之一,辽宁省油页岩资源主要赋存于阜新县野马套海的下白垩统九佛堂组和抚顺煤田的古近系古城子组中,具有重要的利用价值.九佛堂组含油页岩4层,其中第Ⅲ油页岩层分布稳定,含油率较高.古近系古城子组为一套巨厚层油页岩,含油率高,储量大.     

Characterization of nC7-soluble fractions of the products from mild oxidation of asphaltenes

A significant quantity of hydrocarbons (including alkanes) is occluded in the skeleton of the asphaltene molecule. The hydrocarbons are probably remnants of the “original oil” which had been retained within the asphaltene matrix and protected from the secondary alteration processes that occurred subsequently in the oil reservoirs. In this work we report that oxidation of asphaltenes by stirring with 30%H₂O₂–HAc or NaIO₄–NaH₂PO₄ can release nC₇-soluble oxidized products, including the occluded hydrocarbons. Characterization of the nC₇-soluble fractions of oxidized products can be applied to highlight some geochemical problems, such as in studies of oil–oil correlation, oil–source correlation and secondary alterations of oil reservoirs. It will be especially useful to recover the original geochemical information of some oil reservoirs heavily degraded by post-depositional processes.     

国内外主要油(气)田水中锂提取现状及展望

油(气)田中常伴生油(气)田水,与自然界其他水体相比常具有较高的锂含量,部分可达工业品位。我国油(气)田水储量大,锂资源量可观,但在过去却长期被忽视。近年来,在盐湖卤水型液体锂资源提取技术不断取得突破的大背景下,卤水型锂资源产量占比逐年升高,油(气)田水型锂资源也应当受到重视。本文通过研究大量国内外主要油(气)田中伴生的油(气)田水锂含量及分布特征,归纳国内外油(气)田水提锂技术现状,为我国油(气)田水中锂的综合利用提供参考。     

The Norfolk oil-shale rush, 1916–1921

Oil shales are one of those naturally occurring resources that require so much costly treatment to convert them into useful products that they are only worked on a large scale at times when the availability of cheaper alternatives is restricted. The need to find secure UK supplies during the First World War led to attempts to exploit the potential oil reserves contained in the more organic-rich parts of the Jurassic Kimmeridge Clay Formation. The most costly of these was that carried out in west Norfolk by the privately funded English Oilfields Ltd. (EOL) in 1916–1921 under the direction of Dr. William Forbes-Leslie M.D., FGS. Extensive treatment works were constructed on the Kimmeridge Clay outcrop at Setchey, five miles south of King's Lynn, but very little oil shale was worked or retorted. An extensive drilling programme claimed to have proved sulphur-free oil shales, hundreds of millions of tons of free oil, a 21-m thick seam of natural paraffin wax (ozokerite), and an abundance of metalliferous minerals. At its peak in 1920, the stock-market value of the company was several hundred million pounds at present-day prices. The turning point came in 1921 when samples of shale oil from Setchey and the products derived from them by distillation were shown to have no commercial value because of their high sulphur contents. There was, at that time, no commercially viable method of reducing the sulphur contents to an acceptable level. The free oil, ozokerite and metalliferous minerals only existed in the reports to the shareholders.