On the welfare loss caused by inequality of opportunity

Based on the ethical principle of equality of opportunity, this paper presents a measure of the welfare loss that is caused by an unfair distribution of a particular outcome (income, health, education, etc). The key idea is that a fair society should produce outcomes that depend on individuals’ effort and not on their external circumstances such as gender, socioeconomic background, etc. We propose measuring inequality of opportunity as the welfare loss attributed to the outcome differences among individuals who exert a similar level of effort. Our results are in line with those aspects of fairness literature that give priority to the ex post compensation approach to equality of opportunity. Finally, we present an empirical application for the measurement of the welfare loss in the income distribution in Europe. We have observed a high degree of heterogeneity among European countries. The welfare loss due to inequality of opportunity ranges in those, from basically zero to almost one fifth of their potential welfare.     

Equality of opportunity and the distribution of long-run income in Sweden

Equality of opportunity is an ethical goal with almost universal appeal. The interpretation taken here is that a society has achieved equality of opportunity if it is the case that what individuals accomplish, with respect to some desirable objective, is determined wholly by their choices and personal effort, rather than by circumstances beyond their control. We use data for Swedish men born between 1955 and 1967 for whom we measure the distribution of long-run income, as well as several important background circumstances, such as parental education and income, family structure and own IQ before adulthood. We address the question: in Sweden, given its present constellation of social policies and institutions, to what extent is existing income inequality due to circumstances, as opposed to ‘effort’? Our results suggest that several circumstances, importantly both parental income and own IQ, are important for long-run income inequality, but that variations in individual effort account for the most part of that inequality.     

Inequality of opportunity in Italy

In this paper we provide a methodology to measure opportunity inequality and to decompose overall income inequality in an “ethically offensive” and an “ethically acceptable” part. Moreover, we analyze inequality of opportunity in Italy. According to our results, inequality of opportunity accounts for about 20% of overall income inequality in Italy. Moreover, the regions in the South are characterized by a higher degree of opportunity inequality than the regions in the North, especially when considering population subgroups by gender.     

“Left Behind?” Financialization and Income Inequality Between the Affluent,Middle Class,and The Poor

There is increasing scholarly evidence that financialization has contributed to rising income inequality, especially by concentrating income among the affluent and rich. There is less empirical research examining who is losing out to the affluent. This paper fills this gap by examining how three measures of financialization (finance, insurance, and real estate or FIRE employment; credit expansion; and financial crises) affect upper-tail (measured as the ratio between the 90th and 50th income percentiles) and lower-tail (measured as the ratio between the 50th and 10th income percentiles) income inequality. Using concepts from economic sociology and the social stratification literature, I develop a perspective that links financialization to income inequality by creating more unequal market incomes while simultaneously reducing redistribution and social transfers. I analyze disposable household income data (after taxes and transfers) from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) and other public sources like the OECD from 16 affluent nations between the years 1981 and 2011, and I use an unbalanced panel design due to LIS data coverage. I find that the relative incomes of both the middle class and the poor are hurt by financialization (strongest evidence tied to FIRE employment); however, relative incomes of the poor are especially sensitive to financialization.     

THE GREAT OVERESTIMATION: TAX DATA AND INEQUALITY MEASUREMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 1913–1943

Historical measures of income inequality in the United States must grapple with the challenge of data quality. We examine one such problem affecting the well-known estimates of income inequality produced by Piketty and Saez (2003) using the records of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Prior to 1943, incomes were self-reported. Combined with lax enforcement on the part of the IRS, self-reporting of incomes could provide a misleading portrait of the income distribution. To test the accuracy of IRS records, we compare them to independently tabulated state income tax returns between 1919 and 1945 from states with more comprehensive and rigorously enforced tax collection procedures. State income tax records show lower overall levels of income inequality than IRS records. However, we still find that top income concentrations declined across the period between 1929 and World War II. These findings attest to the sensitivity of distributional estimation to the reporting selectivity and economic quality of underlying tax data, suggesting that the existing IRS-derived series systematically overstates top-income concentration in the interwar period. (JEL H2, N32, D31, E01)     

Improving the Measurement of the Relationship between Opportunities and Income: Evidence from Longitudinal Data from Chile

The relationship between exogenous circumstances faced in early childhood (opportunities) and earnings has been increasingly studied in the past decade. In this article we assess the sensitivity of this relationship to different income measures. Typically the empirical evidence is based on short‐term income measures that suffer from variability and measurement error. Using longitudinal data from Chile, we find that when four‐ and seven‐year earnings are used, the relationship between inequality of opportunity and income inequality is significantly higher than that obtained with yearly measures. Monte Carlo simulations with several data‐generating processes confirm this result. This supports policies targeted to reduce long‐term income inequality via providing equal opportunity to individuals at early stages in life.     

Dynamic fairness in repeated bargaining with risk

We study dynamic notions of fairness via an experiment of a two-round bilateral bargaining environment, where the payoff to one player is subject to ex-post risk, while the other player receives a fixed payment, effectively making the player exposed to risk a residual claimant. The ex-post risk not only provides substantive issues for bargaining parties to resolve in the experiment – i.e. what is a fair compensation for the exposure to risk – it also results in the endogenous formation of reference points for the second round due to ex post inequality after the realization of uncertainty in the first round. We find support for a “payback” hypothesis. That is, agreements in the second round significantly differ from the first round in a manner consistent with reducing the inequality that arose due to the initial pie realization.     

A deprivation-based axiomatic characterization of the absolute Bonferroni index of inequality

We investigate several properties of the Bonferroni inequality index, including its welfare theoretic interpretation. We also interpret and characterize the absolute Bonferroni index as the average of subgroup average depression indices, where to each income we associate a subgroup containing all persons whose incomes are not higher than this income. An aggregate depression index for a subgroup has been derived axiomatically as the sum of gaps between the subgroup highest income and all incomes not higher than that.      

Dynastic inequality,mobility and equality of opportunity

One often heard counter to the concern about rising income and wealth inequality is that it is wrong to focus on inequality of outcomes in a “snapshot”. Intergenerational mobility and “equality of opportunity”, so the argument goes, is what matters for normative evaluation. In response to this counter, we ask what pattern of intergenerational mobility leads to lower inequality not between individuals but between the dynasties to which they belong? And how does this pattern in turn relate to commonly held views on what constitutes equality of opportunity? We revive and revisit here our earlier contributions which were in the form of working papers (Kanbur and Stiglitz 1982, 1986) in order to engage with the current debate. Focusing on bistochastic transition matrices in order to hold constant the steady state snapshot income distribution, we develop an explicit partial ordering which ranks matrices on the criterion of inequality between infinitely lived dynasties. A general interpretation of our result is that when comparing two transition matrices, if one matrix is “further away” from the identity matrix then it will lead to lower dynastic inequality. More specifically, the result presents a computational procedure to check if one matrix dominates another on dynastic inequality. We can also assess “equality of opportunity”, defined as identical prospects irrespective of starting position. We find that this is not necessarily the mobility pattern which minimizes dynastic inequality.     

Income Inequality and Chronic Health Conditions: A Multilevel Analysis of the U.S. States

Recently, scholarly work has examined the effect of rising income inequality on health outcomes. However, this work is somewhat inconclusive. The mechanisms that could produce such an association are still being sorted out. Much of this work focuses on mortality outcomes with little attention to how this process operates for actual health conditions, including chronic health problems—arguably the main public health concerns of the developed world. In a series of multilevel binary logistic regression models using data from the 2005 and 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we examine the association between state-level income inequality, poverty, and social welfare measures on spending and policy to examine the association between these factors for three chronic health outcomes: diabetes, hypertension, and coronary heart disease. We find that income inequality is conditionally positively related only to the diagnosis of diabetes and hypertension, and only in 2007. However, absolute poverty is related to the outcome across all three dependent variables. Certain social welfare measures attenuate the effects of both income inequality and absolute poverty, suggesting that some policies reduce this association.     

Measuring poverty and inequality in northern Canada

We provide the first direct comparisons of poverty and inequality in the North (i.e. Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut) with elsewhere in Canada. We do so by first constructing a northern equivalence scale. Based on an Engel methodology, we estimate the extra income needed by families in the North to devote the same share to necessities as those in southern Canada. Using econometric techniques and public use microdata from the Survey of Household Spending, we find that cost of living is 1.46 times higher in the North. We use this scale to adjust the incomes of northern residents so that purchasing power is, for the purposes of our model, equal to that in the South. We subsequently measure poverty and inequality in northern versus southern Canada over the period 1997–2009. Our findings indicate that incidence of poverty is much higher in the North. For example, 31.1% of northern families with children are poor, compared with 9.9% in the South. Moreover, while approximately 10% of the southern population is represented in each income decile, 31.1% of northern families with children are in the bottom 10%. Only 3% have incomes that would place them among the richest 10% of Canadians.     

Income Inequality in Host Countries and Remittances: A Discussion of the Determinants of Portuguese Emigrants' Remittances

The evolution of income inequality in host countries affects the migrants working there. As a significant number of these migrants do not earn high incomes, this evolution tends to significantly affect migrants' abilities to send money back to their home countries. We test this hypothesis considering the evolution of income inequality in 59 countries with Portuguese emigrants through observations from 1996 to 2014. Using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, we found that an increase in income inequality leads to fewer remittances per emigrant. We also controlled income inequality with several determinants of remittances, including the real GDP per capita, unemployment rate, education skills, and the self‐employment rates of the host countries.     

Survey nonresponse and the distribution of income

The paper examines the distributional implications of selective compliance in sample surveys, whereby households with different incomes are not equally likely to participate. Poverty and inequality measurement implications are discussed for monotonically decreasing and inverted-U compliance-income relationships. We demonstrate that the latent income effect on the probability of compliance can be estimated from information on response rates across geographic areas. On implementing the method on the Current Population Survey for the U.S. we find that the compliance probability falls monotonically as income rises. Correcting for nonresponse appreciably increases mean income and inequality, but has only a small impact on poverty incidence up to poverty lines common in the U.S. Martin Ravallion: Corresponding author.     

Attitude towards a redistribution of income

This article reports on some data from a pilot study which surveyed the attitude of the active male Flemish population towards a redistribution of income. A simple linear regression model based upon the average ratings of actual and fair incomes of twelve occupations is presented. The model allows to calculate for each subject how much redistribution he favors, the extent to which he wants to alter the income structure, and the reference point he uses to determine which incomes have to moderate and which have not to. Some results are presented and discussed. Subjects tend to favor some degree of income leveling, however without affecting the income structure.     

RELIEF FOR THE ENVIRONMENT? THE IMPORTANCE OF AN INCREASINGLY UNIMPORTANT INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Deindustrialization, stagnant real incomes of production workers, and increasing inequality are latter day features of many economies. It is common to assume that such developments pressure policymakers to relax environmental standards. However, when heavily polluting industries become less important economically, their political importance also tends to diminish. Consequently, a regulator may increase the stringency of environmental policies. Like some other studies, we find that declining industrial employment translates into stricter environmental standards. In contrast to previous studies, but consistent with our argument, we find that greater income inequality is associated with policies that promote a cleaner environment. ( JEL Q58, P16, J31, C23)     

Immigrant groups’ income inequality within and across Italian regions

The relationship between Italian regional income inequality and the phenomenon of migration is still under current debate. Policymakers and researchers worry about the process of assimilation of the new entrants, in a country where regional disparities are strong. We provide evidence that regional income disparities apply to groups of immigrants as well as of nationals, but the most important source of inequality rests on within-immigrant group/within-region, especially for those households with the presence of women and very young children. However, if bottom incomes were to grow, inequality would not diminish, with the exception of married individuals living in the North, for no other characteristic is correlated to inequality according to the Atkinson bottom sensitive index. We show that the uneven economic development across regions then influences the distribution of immigration both in sociodemographic and economic terms.     

Estimating trends in US income inequality using the Current Population Survey: the importance of controlling for censoring

We analyze trends in US size-adjusted household income inequality between 1975 and 2004 using the most commonly used data source—the public use version of the March Current Population Survey. But, unlike most researchers, we also give substantial attention to the problems caused by the topcoding of each income source in the CPS data. Exploiting our access to Census Bureau internal CPS data, we examine estimates from data incorporating imputations for topcoded incomes derived from cell means and estimates from data multiply-imputed from parametric distribution models. Our analysis yields robust conclusions about inequality trends. The upward trend in US income inequality that began in the mid-1970s and increased in the 1980s slowed markedly after 1993.     

Rurality and Income Inequality in the United States, 1975–2015

Recent events have focused attention on the perceived widening of the economic divide between urban and rural areas, and on the continued rise of national income inequality. We demonstrate that, in fact, the average income gap between urban (metropolitan) and rural (nonmetropolitan) households has not risen over the past 40 years, and makes virtually no contribution to national income inequality. Rising national inequality is driven by rising inequality within both urban and rural America, not by an urban/rural divergence. As is well known, the growing dispersion of household money income is partly driven by rising wage inequality, particularly in urban areas. Less well recognized is the role played by other income sources. We show that a decline in the progressivity of the distribution of social security payments and cash transfers, and an increase in the regressivity of the distribution of retirement incomes, have jointly made a comparably large contribution to rising income inequality. At the same time, the share of income from self-employment has declined, particularly in rural America, and because self-employment income is very unequally distributed, its diminution has retarded the growth of rural inequality. In 2014–15, however, rural inequality increased, cutting the urban/rural inequality gap in half.     

Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach

To assess the impact of tax-benefit policy changes on income distribution over time, we suggest a methodology based on counterfactual tax-benefit simulations. Changes in inequality/poverty indices are decomposed into three contributions: changes in the tax-benefit structure, changes in nominal levels of market incomes and tax-benefit money parameters, and all other changes, including shifts in market income inequality and demographic composition. The policy effect can be evaluated conditionally on base-period data or end-period data; it is also possible to average the two measures, which corresponds to an application of the Shapley value method as reinterpreted by Shorrocks (Decomposition Procedures for Distributional Analysis: A Unified Framework Based on the Shapley Value, University of Essex and Institute for Fiscal Studies, Wivenhoe Park, 1999). The decomposition is used to quantify the relative role of policy changes on inequality/poverty trends in France and Ireland in the 1990s. When end-period data are not available, e.g., for forward looking analysis of possible reforms, the base weighted decomposition helps to extract an absolute measure of the impact of tax-benefit changes on income distribution as evaluated against a distributionally neutral benchmark; in our application, it is not significantly different from the policy effect stemming from the Shorrocks-Shapley decomposition. Estimates of this type are derived to assess recent policy changes in twelve European countries.     

Punishment,inequality, and welfare: a public good experiment

This paper reports the results of an experiment that investigates the two-sided relationship between punishment and welfare. First, it contributes to the literature on the behavioral determinants of punishment by examining the role of relative income and income comparisons as a determinant of punishment in a two-stage public good game when inequality arises endogenously from the subjects’ behavior. Second, this paper investigates the impact of punishment on both absolute and relative incomes. We compare three treatments of our game. The Unequal Cost treatment replicates Fehr and Gächter (2000)’s experiment under a stranger matching protocol. The Equal Cost treatment is identical to the previous one except that the ratio between the cost of one punishment point to the punisher and its cost to the target equals one. The third treatment is similar to the second one except that a partner matching protocol is implemented in order to isolate strategic motives for punishment. Our results indicate that subjects punish even when they cannot alter the current distribution of payoffs. We also find that in all treatments, the intensity of punishment increases in the level of inter-individual inequality. Finally, despite its cost, punishment progressively improves welfare in association with a decrease in the aggregate level of inequality over time.