基于元胞自动机的人员疏散仿真研究

在人员聚集的大型场所,如果紧急事件发生则极有可能造成人员的大量伤亡,因此对人员疏散行为进行深入研究,具有极大的现实意义.通过分析已有的理论基础,利用元胞自动机原理建立了人员疏散数学模型.模型采用二维元胞自动机技术,确定了元胞空间和元胞状态,建立了人员疏散行为规则并着重探讨了从众行为和建筑结构不同对疏散时间的影响.试验结果表明,该疏散仿真模型更具真实性和合理性.     

基于元胞自动机模型的人员疏散仿真研究

公共安全是经济发展和社会稳定的基础。近年来由于火灾、地震、恐怖活动等突发因素诱发的公共场所人员安全事故屡见报道,在公共场所的安全设计中,安全疏散性能已成为至关重要的因素。为解决上述问题,人员疏散的计算机仿真对提高公共场所的安全疏散性能具有重要意义。对于出口距离最近的原则建立人员疏散的二维随机元胞自动机模型,其中考虑人员绕行的影响,并利用Matlab软件编写了疏散过程的程序,对大空间疏散人群进了仿真,得到了人员疏散基本规律及疏散时间。研究表明:考虑人员绕行的模型更能体现真实的疏散情景。     

基于元胞自动机和模糊理论的人群疏散仿真

基于元胞自动机和模糊理论建立了人群疏散模型,对教学楼内的人群疏散过程进行了模拟。该模型根据人员对建筑物的熟悉程度、周围人员的吸引力设计元胞行为准则,并且采用模糊隶属度定义人员的体能状态及人员对环境的熟悉程度。实验结果表明,该仿真模型能够较好地模拟紧急状况下的人群疏散过程。     

基于元胞自动机疏散系统的设计与分析

对人群的疏散动态的研究,已有大量的仿真模型和仿真软件被建立和投入使用。介绍各种仿真模型的基本特性,重点分析基于元胞自动机的疏散仿真模型的建立方法,提出当前研究的问题和建议。     

学生群体紧急疏散仿真及在出口设计中的应用

针对学校大型建筑中人群分布密集的问题,研究了学生群体的紧急疏散仿真.首先分析了紧急情况下的群体行为特点,并根据现实生活中个体差异的统计特征,对逃生人群的不同属性特征进行了分类,然后采用社会力模型实现了学生群体的紧急疏散仿真,解决了传统疏散仿真中人员的无差异性问题.该仿真能够更加真实地反映出现实生活中的人群疏散,达到较好的效果.最后,基于该仿真模型,着重分析了建筑物出口设计对群体疏散的影响,分析结果表明:不同的出口宽度、位置对群体疏散的影响不同,从而可以为大型建筑的出口设计提供有益的参考.     

考虑分类人群行为的建筑疏散模型研究

人员行为决定了应急疏散时人群的时空分布,是研究疏散动力学的关键。考虑疏散时人员的心理特性与身份状态,将人群分为恐慌人群、易感人群、冷静人群和管理人群四类,基于社会力模型表达各类人群的疏散行为特征,并开展不同情境的疏散动力学过程分析。研究发现行人的恐慌心理具有传播作用,对其他行人的疏散行为有明显的影响,而管理人员的引导作用对疏散有积极影响,当其比例在10%~15%的时候效果显著,且合适的位置更易提高疏散效率;人员的服从水平越大,疏散效率越高。提出的分类人群疏散行为模型能为建筑安全疏散评估与优化提供理论支持。     

一个面向紧急疏散的大规模人群运动模拟系统

对公共场所大规模虚拟人群疏散过程的模拟研究在理论和现实方面都具有重大的意义.本文介绍了一个面向紧急疏散的大规模人群运动模拟系统,包括系统框架、功能、规模等.其中详细讲解了系统的几个功能模块及其实现技术,主要有人群建模和仿真技术、场景建模技术、灾害现象模拟技术、人群疏散控制策略以及海量数据实时渲染技术.最后对人群疏散系统在未来需要解决的问题做了简单讨论.     

基于FDS的火灾仿真研究

研究火灾中人员优化疏散、减少损失问题,为获取各种火灾数据,克服实际火灾数据获取困难及体现疏散过程中人员的个体差异性,研究了在公共火灾中的疏散方法,并构建了具有个体差异性的人员疏散模型.研究了火灾仿真软件及基本控制方程.利用FDS( Fire Dynamics Simulator)火灾研究工具软件可较为准确快速地分析复杂的三维火灾问题.以某KTV场所为应用实例,研究FDS的具体应用方法.根据FDS火灾数据,在Java环境下实现了上述模型,并进行了相应的仿真验证.结果表明可为火灾研究和人员疏散提供手段,并对建筑物的布局设计具有一定的指导意义.     

基于GIS技术的人群疏散仿真可视化研究

采用地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,简称GIS)对建筑物内人群在紧急情况下的疏散过程仿真结果的可视化表达进行研究.从空间信息的图像表达与数据组织、人群疏散仿真的空间分析能力、仿真环境集成方法等几个方面讨论了采用GIS对人群疏散仿真进行数据分析和可视化的关键技术.解决在GIS中以空问数据为基础的模型实现与系统集成.仿真结果显示本算法具有较好的实用性和有效性,仿真系统具有较高的拟真度.     

建筑物火灾中的人群疏散研究

建筑物火灾是我国频发的安全事故,所以应研究建筑物火灾人群安全疏散问题。由于在建筑物火灾中,人群疏散时出现拥堵,存在不安全因素,造成人员伤亡。针对在现有的研究中未考虑人员行为的影响,提出了智能体(Agent)的人群行为建模技术在建筑物火灾中的人群疏散仿真中的应用方法。仿真结果显示基于Agent的行为模型可以仿真出人员特性及决策过程对人群疏散的影响,弥补现有的人群疏散模型的不足。仿真结果证明,Agent的行为建模技术具有仿真火灾全过程中人员疏散行为的功能,适用于建筑物火灾中的人群优化疏散策略。     

灾难疏散系统的疏散策略分析与研究

在紧急灾害发生时,采取正确的疏散避难策略可以大大提高疏散效率。在计算机疏散仿真模型的基础上,提出三种疏散策略并进行分析和比较,实验结果表明领导行为疏散策略疏散效率最优,协助行为疏散策略其次,随机行为疏散策略效率最低。提出一种基于A*算法的动态分组算法,并利用该算法对多领导者带领下的疏散进行仿真模拟,研究证明疏散效率与领导者数量是非线性关系,设置一定数量的领导者有利于疏散,数量过多反而产生混乱。     

Estimation of the evacuation time in an emergency situation in hospitals

In this paper, a prediction model is presented that estimates the evacuation time in an emergency situation for hospitals. The model is generic enough to be used in various hospital settings. This model can provide incident managers with estimates of the evacuation times of different types of patients and can offer support to the managers with their resource allocation decisions in emergency situations. The major advantage of the prediction model is that the computation time is very short and the model does not need a lengthy and costly design. The model was applied for several different evacuation scenarios and the results were compared with those of a simulation model which had already been designed for use by the hospital. The comparison shows that the prediction model can provide estimates of the evacuation time that are similar to the results found by using costly and time-consuming simulation models.     

Investigating the influence of route turning angle on compliance behaviors and evacuation performance in a virtual-reality-based experiment

Route turning is one of the most essential and ubiquitous physical features in the complex building environment. Under the influence of route turning, evacuees’ approaching perspective to an emergency sign could vary, affecting their information perception and behavioral compliance during the evacuation. Although conventional simulation methods assess the effectiveness of the emergency sign in the visible region, they fail to consider evacuees’ wayfinding behaviors and interaction with the emergency sign. It remains unclear whether the route turning angle affects evacuees’ compliance for detecting and responding to the emergency sign. To investigate such an influence, a virtual-reality-based method for assessing human evacuation behaviors in building fire evacuations was proposed. In this study, two evacuation routes with different turning angles in a shopping mall were created and implemented in a virtual-reality environment, and 67 subjects participated in the immersive virtual-reality-based experiment. All participants took the two routes to find the nearest exit for evacuation in a fire event, aiming to evaluate the effect of the route turning angle on the evacuation process. The participants were asked to complete a questionnaire at the end of the experiment. Next, statistical analyses were conducted on evacuation results, information perception, and evacuation performance of the participants. The results indicated the route turning angle significantly affected participants' behavioral compliance with emergency signs. The results also suggested the route turning angle was influential on participants’ information perception and evacuation performance. Besides, a significant effect on rotation change, wayfinding pause, and speed deviation were observed. This study validates the effectiveness of investigating evacuees’ interaction with emergency signs using virtual-reality technology and has potential implications for complex building path planning and evacuation simulation modeling.     

一种考虑Wardrop均衡的行人流疏散模型

针对室内空间行人流的疏散问题,基于元胞自动机和Wardrop均衡原理提出了一种新的疏散模型。该模型首先基于位置吸引力、出口拥挤度、行人之间作用力和团队效应定义了行人移动概率的计算公式,并根据Wardrop均衡原理建立了疏散优化模型,同时对该优化模型进行求解。最后,利用实验平台进行仿真分析,深入研究了系统疏散时间、系统平均速度和行人流密度之间的关系。结果发现适当提高系统平均速度可以提高系统疏散效率,同时在不同行人流密度下,需要采取不同的疏散策略。     

一种基于SPH方法的人员疏散混合模型及模拟

为减少室内火灾环境下人员伤亡,研究了人员疏散计算机模拟问题.将人员运动视为一种流体运动,利用流体力学原理,构建一种新的人员疏散混合模型,并在其中引入了一种从众模式.同时,采用光滑粒子流体动力学方法对模型离散化,从而减少了计算量.不同工况下进行的疏散模拟实验表明,所提出的模型及算法能够较准确地模拟出实际疏散的现象.     

Lessons from the evacuation of the world trade centre, 9/11 2001 for the development of computer-based simulations

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in evacuation simulations. These interactive computer based tools have been developed to help the owners and designers of large public buildings to assess the risks that occupants might face during emergency egress. The development of the Glasgow Evacuation Simulator is used to illustrate the existing generation of tools. This system uses Monte Carlo techniques to control individual and group movements during an evacuation. The end-user can interactively open and block emergency exits at any point. It is also possible to alter the priorities that individuals associate with particular exit routes. A final benefit is that the tool can derive evacuation simulations directly from existing architects, models; this reduces the cost of simulations and creates a more prominent role for these tools in the iterative development of large-scale public buildings. Empirical studies have been used to validate the GES system as a tool to support evacuation training. The development of these tools has been informed by numerous human factors studies and by recent accident investigations. For example the 2003 fire in the Station nightclub in Rhode Island illustrated the way in which most building occupants retrace their steps to an entrance even when there are alternate fire exits. The second half of the paper uses this introduction to criticise the existing state-of-the-art in evacuation simulations. These criticisms are based on a detailed study of the recent findings from the 9/11 Commission (2004). Ten different lessons are identified. Some relate to the need to better understand the role of building management and security systems in controlling egress from public buildings. Others relate to the human factors involved in coordinating distributed groups of emergency personnel who may be physically exhausted by the demands of an evacuation. Arguably, the most important findings centre on the need to model the ingress and egress of emergency personnel from these structures. The previous focus of nearly all-existing simulation tools has been on the evacuation of building occupants rather than on the safety of first responders. Thanks are due to J. Appleby, P. Cooper, A. Foss, S. Hailey and B. Jenks who were responsible for the design and implementation of the GES application. They also drove the development of the Boyd Orr evacuation scenarios that are used to illustrate the opening sections of this paper.     

一种考虑内在状态的紧急撤退模型

将内在状态引入了所建的紧急撤退模型。使出用内心镇静值和当前狂躁值来区分撤退过程中个体的镇静和慌乱两种心情,不同心情下个体执行不同的行为控制。提出了影响个体活力值的三条规则,再现了在慌乱撤退中人们相互冲撞以至丧失逃生能力的现象。仿真结果表明,内在状态的引入使原有模型更趋合理：慌乱人群的撤退速度将快于镇静的人群,代价是出现撤退失败的个体。分析了镇静值,撤退速度,失败个体比重三者间的关系,并讨论了少数慌乱者对整个人群撤退结果的影响。     

海上伤病员后送通道系统的计算机仿真

通过仿真研究海上伤病员后送通道系统的运作过程,对通道环节匹配和整体优化提供决策支持。以排队网络为理论基础,运用固定时间增量方法控制后送通道的运作过程,模拟伤员产生、后送及治疗等模型。软件以参数设置、数据文件生成、过程模拟、结果分析和显示输出模块按流程走向相互联系,完成仿真的总体功能。提供伤病员后送的海上通道运输仿真实验平台,化解各目标之间的矛盾,达到通道运行秩序良好的效果。     

Validation of advanced evacuation analysis on passenger ships using experimental scenario and data of full-scale evacuation

Evacuation analysis, which calculates the total evacuation time should be fulfilled for all passenger ships. One of the ways to calculate evacuation time is to use the computer simulation, which models various effects of human behaviors in an emergency situation. In the previous research, SIMPEV (SIMulation system for Passenger EVacuation) was developed for the evacuation analysis based on the latest human behavior algorithms. It has already showed that SIMPEV basically satisfied the eleven test cases suggested in International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)’s Circulation 1238. The main focus of this paper is the validation of SIMPEV by using “SAFEGUARD Validation Data Set 1 and 2”, which performed real evacuation trials in two full-scale ships to compare simulation data with experimental data. Total evacuation time is computed by SIMPEV based on the validation data sets such as drawings, initial distributions and end locations. The results from 50 times simulation are analyzed to be compared with the experimental data in the statistical methods. From the results, it is found that SIMPEV satisfies the acceptance criteria for each of data sets. Furthermore, the results show a close similarity to those of the other simulation programs.     

Two-phase evacuation route planning approach using combined path networks for buildings and roads

This paper addresses the problem of modeling evacuation routes from a building and out of an affected area. The evacuation route involves pathways such as corridors, and stairs in buildings and road networks and sidewalks outside the building. To illustrate such an approach, we consider the problem of finding evacuation paths from an urban building and out of a predetermined neighborhood of the building on foot. A case study for a college campus building and small set of road around it is provided. There are a pre-defined set of exit points out of the target building and out of the road network serving the building. A two-step approach with an uncapacitated network model for route finding and a capacitated scheduling algorithm for evacuation time computation is proposed. A recent efficient heuristic algorithm is selected as a reference for comparative analysis. The process of creating a combined building and road path network data is discussed. The key results are the competitive evacuation time provided by the proposed uncapacitated route planning model, simple pedestrian flow capacity formulas for corridors and roads from readily available geometric data, and the illustration of the creation and use of combined building and road path network.