一次大气河背景下华北地区暴雨的诊断分析

利用2018年5月15-16日的ERA5再分析资料和观测资料,对大气河背景下一次华北地区暴雨过程的天气形势、大气河在暴雨过程中的作用及其在暴雨前后的演变特征以及结构特征进行了诊断分析.结果 表明此次降水过程的直接影响系统是位于华北地区的高空槽、低空切变线、地面冷锋和高低空急流,这些系统使得华北地区低层辐合高层辐散,带来...     

利用环境同位素技术研究沈阳浑河与地下水的水力联系

查明地下水与河水之间的水力联系,是研究浑河污染水体对地下水环境影响的前提。采用环境同位素技术研究浑河沿岸地下水演化规律,沿浑河冲洪积扇地下水流动方向取地下水样13个、河水样3个。结果表明:通过对水样进行D(氘)、18O分析,查明了浑河与地下水之间的水力联系,确定了河水对地下水的补给宽度,定量计算了河水对沿岸地下水的贡献比例。从浑河的上游至下游,河水对地下水的贡献比例由大变小,平均约为50%;河水对地下水强补给带位于浑河以南约1 km的范围内,二者的水力联系密切。     

The effects of precipitation and river runoff in a coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic

A coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic is developed in order to study the effects of precipitation and river runoff on sea ice. A dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model is coupled to an ocean general circulation model which includes a turbulent closure scheme for vertical mixing. The model is forced by interannually varying atmospheric temperature and pressure data from 1980–1989, and spatially varying mean monthly precipitation and river runoffs. Salinity and fresh water fluxes to the ocean from ice growth, snow melt, rain, and runoffs are computed, with no artificial constraints on the ocean salinity. The modeled ice thickness is similar to the observed pattern, with the thickest ice remaining against the Canadian Archipelago throughout the year. The modeled ice drift reproduces the Beaufort gyre and Transpolar drift exiting through Fram Strait. The stable arctic halocline produced by the vertical mixing scheme isolates the surface from the Atlantic layer and reduces the vertical fluxes of heat and salinity. A sensitivity experiment with zero precipitation results in rapidly decreasing ice thickness, in response to greater ocean heat flux from a weakening of the halocline, while an experiment with doubled precipitation results in a smaller increase in ice thickness. A zero-runoff experiment results in a slower decrease in ice thickness than the zero-precipitation case, due to the decadal time scale of the transport of runoff in the model. The results suggest that decadal trends in both arctic precipitation and river runoffs, caused either by anthropogenic or natural climatic change, have the potential to exert broad-scale impacts on the arctic sea ice regime. Received: 6 February 1996 / Accepted: 4 April 1996     

Effects of atmospheric river landfalls on the cold season precipitation in California

Effects of atmospheric river (AR) landfalls in the California coast on the cold-season precipitation in California are examined for the cold seasons of 10 water years (WYs) 2001–2010 using observed data and regional modeling in conjunction with AR-landfall inventory based on visual inspections of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from remote sensing and reanalysis. The PWV in the SSM/I and SSMIS retrievals and the ERA-Interim reanalysis shows 95 AR-landfall days in the California coast that are almost evenly split between the northern and southern coasts across 37.5N. The CPC/NCEP gridded daily precipitation analysis shows that 10–30% of the cold-season precipitation totals in California have occurred during these AR landfalls. The analysis also reveals that the percentage of precipitation and the precipitation intensity during AR landfalls in California are characterized by strong north-to-south gradient. This north–south contrast in the AR precipitation is reversed for the non-AR precipitation in the coastal range. The frequency of AR landfalls and the cold-season precipitation totals in the Sierra Nevada region are only marginally correlated. Instead, AR landfalls are closely related with the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The freezing-level altitudes are systematically higher for AR wet days than non-AR wet days indicating warmer low-troposphere during AR storms. Cold season simulations for the 10 WYs 2001–2010 show that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model can reasonably simulate important features in both the seasonal and AR precipitation totals. The daily pattern correlation coefficients between the simulated and ERA-Interim upper-air fields exceed 0.9 for most of the period. This suggests that the simulated temporal variations in the atmospheric circulation agree reasonably with the reanalysis over seasonal time scales, characteristics critical for reliable simulations of regional scale hydrologic cycle. The simulated seasonal and AR precipitation totals also agree reasonably with the CPC/NCEP precipitation analysis. The most notable model errors include the overestimation (underestimation) of the season-total and AR precipitation in the northern (southern) California region. The differences in the freezing-level altitudes during the AR- and non-AR wet days in the simulation agree with those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The freezing level altitudes are systematically overestimated in the simulations, suggesting warm biases in the low troposphere. Overall, WRF appears to perform reasonably in simulating the key features in the cold season precipitation related with AR landfalls, an important capability for assessing the impact of global climate variations and change on future hydrology in California.     

1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。     

High latitude river runoff in a doubled CO2 climate

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the monthly river flow for nine of the world's major high latitude rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO₂ climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4° × 5°, but the model's runoff from each grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2° × 2.5° resolution. A routing scheme is used to move runoff from a grid box to its neighboring downstream grid box and ultimately to the mouth of the river. In a model simulation in which atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, mean annual precipitation and river flow increase for all of these rivers, increased outflow at the river mouths begins earlier in the spring, and the maximum outflow occurs approximately one month sooner due to an earlier snow melt season. In the doubled CO₂ climate, snow mass decreases for the Yukon and Mackenzie rivers in North America and for rivers in northwestern Asia, but snow mass increases for rivers in northeastern Asia.     

Impact of synoptic processes and river discharge on the thermohaline structure in the east Siberian Sea shelf

The thermohaline structure of waters in the East Siberian Sea coastal zone in September 2000, 2003, and 2004 is investigated. It is found that the spatial variability of thermohaline characteristics was determined by various synoptic conditions observed over the East Siberian Sea during the summer-autumn season and by fluctuations in the river discharge. In surface layers, plume fronts are identified. Under conditions of cyclonic atmospheric circulation of 2003, fresh waters spread as a narrow jet along the coast. During anticyclonic circulation of 2004, some meridional fronts existed. Horizontal gradients of thermohaline characteristics were 0.01–0.02°C/km and 0.03–0.07 psu/km off the Indigirka River and 0.02–0.03°C/km and 0.06–0.09 psu/km near the Kolyma River mouth being an order of magnitude less than the vertical ones. The stratification of coastal waters was amplified as the river and ice-melted runoff increased. In the thermohalocline, the average Brunt-Väisälä frequency was 0.042 s^?1 (in 2000), 0.068 s^?1 (in 2003), and 0.074 s^?1 (in 2004).     

Uncertainties in the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing and their impacts on regional and global hydrological simulations

The Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP) is an international initiative aimed at producing global data sets of soil wetness and energy and water fluxes by driving land surface models with state-of-the-art 1° by 1° atmospheric forcing and land surface parameters. It also provides a unique opportunity to develop and test land surface parameterizations at the global scale, using multi-year off-line simulations that are not affected by the systematic errors found in atmospheric models. Nevertheless, the accuracy and reliability of the 10?year GSWP-2 atmospheric forcing remain questionable. A first comparison using the high-resolution Rhône-AGGregation (Rhône-AGG) database reveals that the baseline GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is drastically overestimated over the Rhône river basin. Hydrological simulations driven with each dataset and using the ISBA land surface model and the MODCOU river routing model are also compared. The simulated river discharges are validated against a dense network of river gauges and are generally less realistic when using the GSWP-2 instead of the Rhône-AGG precipitation forcing. Secondly, the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is compared with three alternative data sets (GPCP-2, CRU-2, CMAP) at the global scale. Moreover, the results of a global sensitivity study to the precipitation forcing conducted with six land surface models are shown. The TRIP river routing model is used to convert daily runoff from all models into river discharges, which are compared at 80 gauging stations distributed over the globe. In agreement with the regional evaluation, the results reveal that the baseline GSWP-2 precipitation forcing is generally overestimated over the mid and high latitudes, which implies systematic errors in the simulated discharges. This study reveals that the empirical wind corrections applied to the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing are exaggerated, whereas the GPCP satellite adjustments seem to be useful for simulating realistic annual mean river discharges over the East Siberian river basins.     

近50 a来中国不同流域降水的变化趋势分析

利用我国612个气象站1961—2010年逐日降水量资料,借助地理信息系统Arc GIS,分析了我国十大流域的年、季节降水量的时空变化趋势特征。结果表明,我国降水主要集中在珠江、东南诸河和长江流域,西北诸河流域降水最少;四季降水量与年降水量的空间分布特征高度相似;降水量均为夏季最多,冬季最少。就年降水量而言,西北诸河流域有变湿趋势,海河流域和黄河流域有变干趋势。就降水季节而言,西南诸河、松花江、西北诸河流域春季有变湿趋势;东南诸河流域和长江流域夏季有变湿趋势,海河流域和西南诸河流域夏季有变干趋势;西北诸河流域秋季有变湿趋势,长江流域、黄河流域和淮河流域秋季有变干趋势;松花江流域、西北诸河流域和长江流域冬季有变湿趋势。     

辽河流域气候变化及对径流影响预估与评估分析

辽河流域属于气候变暖较为显著区域,增温幅度比全球和全国的增温幅度都要高。同时辽河流域也是水资源较为匮乏且需求量大的地区,因此气候变化对水资源影响问题也更值得关注。基于长期历史观测气象水文数据和未来不同情景下气候变化预估资料,建立评估气候变化与径流量的关系,预估未来气候变化对径流量的可能影响,为辽河流域应对气候变化决策提供科学依据。结果表明:1961—2020年,辽河流域气温为持续上升趋势,降水没有明显的增减趋势,但存在阶段性变化;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系,具有较为一致的长期变化趋势与特征,年降水量与径流量相关数达到0.6以上。日降水量与径流量相关分析表明,降水发生后次日且为大雨降水等级(即日降水量≥25 mm)时,两者相关系数可高达0.85;敏感性试验和模式模拟试验表明,径流量对气候变化有明显的响应,降水增加(减少)、气温降低(升高),则径流量增加(减少);在未来RCP8.5排放情景下气温升高趋势最为明显,未来径流量也为显著增加趋势;RCP2.6排放情景下气温增加的幅度最小,未来径流量也表现为无明显增减趋势;RCP4.5情景下,气温增加的幅度居中,未来径流量则为减少趋势。     

Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse

In this study observed precipitation, temperature, and discharge records from the Meuse basin for the period 1911–2003 are analysed. The primary aim is to establish which meteorological conditions generate (critical) low-flows of the Meuse. This is achieved by examining the relationships between observed seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies, and low-flow indices. Secondly, the possible impact of climate change on the (joint) occurrence of these low-flow generating meteorological conditions is addressed. This is based on the outcomes of recently reported RCM climate simulations for Europe given a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. The observed record (1911–2003) hints at the importance of multi-seasonal droughts in the generation of critical low-flows of the river Meuse. The RCM simulations point to a future with wetter winters and drier summers in Northwest Europe. No increase in the likelihood of multi-seasonal droughts is simulated. However, the RCM scenario runs produce multi-seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies that are out of the range of the observed record for the period 1911–2003. The impact of climate change on low-flows has also been simulated with a hydrological model. This simulation indicates that climate change will lead to a decrease in the average discharge of the Meuse during the low-flow season. However, the model has difficulties to simulate critical low-flow conditions of the Meuse.     

Global river discharge and water temperature under climate change

Climate change will affect hydrologic and thermal regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on freshwater ecosystems and human water use. Here we assess the impact of climate change on global river flows and river water temperatures, and identify regions that might become more critical for freshwater ecosystems and water use sectors. We used a global physically based hydrological-water temperature modelling framework forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the SRES A2 and B1 emissions scenario. This resulted in global projections of daily river discharge and water temperature under future climate. Our results show an increase in the seasonality of river discharge (both increase in high flow and decrease in low flow) for about one-third of the global land surface area for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. Global mean and high (95th percentile) river water temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8–1.6 (1.0–2.2) °C for the SRES B1–A2 scenario for 2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for the United States, Europe, eastern China, and parts of southern Africa and Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities are exacerbated by projected decreases in low flows (resulting in a reduced thermal capacity). For strongly seasonal rivers with highest water temperatures during the low flow period, up to 26% of the increases in high (95th percentile) water temperature can be attributed indirectly to low flow changes, and the largest fraction is attributable directly to increased atmospheric energy input. A combination of large increases in river temperature and decreases in low flows are projected for the southeastern United States, Europe, eastern China, southern Africa and southern Australia. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for human uses such as thermoelectric power and drinking water production.     

1961—2009年辽河流域气候变化特征及其对水资源的影响

辽河流域是中国七大流域之一,长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961—2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据,研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征,并采用同期和滞后相关分析,建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显,增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度;辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显,总体上为略减少趋势,但存在明显的少—多—少—多—少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势,春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节。近50 a辽河流域径流量为减少趋势,经历了偏多—偏少—偏多—偏少4个阶段的变化,1996—2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段,平均年径流量仅为16.2亿m3,只达到多年平均径流量的58%、径流量最多年代的32%。一年之中,7月和8月径流量最大,两个月径流量占全年的50%。辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度,径流量与铁岭、法库等地区降水量相关系数为0.60;在日尺度,日降水量与降水发生后第2日经流量相关程度最好,在所有等级上两者相关系数为0.70或以上;在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上,相关系数最高为0.85。     

The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study

This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.     

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: Sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate change projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment’s role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.     

1971—2009年金沙江流域气候变化特征及对生态环境的影响

基于1971—2009年金沙江流域(云南段)35个气象站的逐月平均气温、降水量和蒸发量,分析了近40 a金沙江流域的上段、中段、下段的气象要素变化趋势。结果表明：近40 a来,金沙江流域的年平均气温变化幅度为0.29 ℃/10 a;在空间分布上,流域中段的年平均气温相对较高且升温幅度达到0.46 ℃/10 a,上段的年平均气温低且变化幅度不大。金沙江流域的年平均降水量以8.89 mm/10 a 的速率增加;春季流域的年平均降水量最大,在空间分布上,流域的上段、中段的年平均降水量呈增加趋势,而在下段呈下降趋势。各气象要素年代变化趋势不太明显。金沙江流域云南段的气候变化对流域内自然生态系统、水资源量、自然灾害等产生影响,从而加剧了流域内生态系统的脆弱性,并在一定程度上影响区域的经济发展水平。     

The climatic response of the Arctic Ocean to Soviet river diversions

A numerical model is constructed to evaluate the effect of river diversions on the circulation of the Arctic Ocean, including the climatically important response in the extent of sea ice. The ocean model solves the primitive equations of motion in finite-difference form for the irregular geometry of the Arctic Ocean and Greenland/Norwegian Sea, using 110 km horizontal grid spacing and up to 13 unevenly spaced levels in the vertical. Annual mean atmospheric conditions and river discharges are specified from observations. The presence of sea ice is diagnosed on the basis of model ocean temperature; and the effects of sea ice on the surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and salt are included in a simplified way. Lateral exchanges at the southernmost boundary are held near observed values but respond to circulation changes in the Greenland/Norwegian Sea. Three equilibrium solutions are obtained by eighty-year integrations from simple initial conditions: the first with inflow from all rivers, the second with one-third of the inflow diverted from four major rivers (the Ob, Yenesei, Dvina, and Pechora), and the third with total diversion from those rivers. The middle case corresponds to maximal diversions which are either planned or envisioned by the Soviet Union over the next fifty years, whereas the final extreme case is run in the event that model sensitivity is low relative to that of nature.The control integration gives a good simulation of known water masses and currents. In the Central Arctic, for example, the model correctly predicts a strong shallow halocline, a relatively warm intermediate layer of Atlantic origin, and a temperature jump across the deep Lomonosov Ridge. The overall pattern of surface salinity and the margin of the pack ice are also properly simulated.When runoff into the marginal Kara and Barents Seas is diverted, either in part or in full, almost no effect on the halocline results in the Central Arctic. In particular, deep convection does not develop in the Eurasian Basin, the possibility of which was suggested by Aagaard and Coachman (1975). The vertical stability within the two marginal seas is considerably decreased by the total diversion of four rivers, but not to the point of convective overturning. The surface currents in this area change to confine the water with increased salinity to the shelf region. At deeper levels, an increased salinity tongue spreads into the deep basins of the ice-free Greenland/Norwegian Sea, where existing deep convection is slightly enhanced. As a result, there is some additional heat loss from the Atlantic layer before it enters the Central Arctic. The ice extent remains nearly the same as before within the Kara and Barents Seas. In fact, since modified bottom currents over the continental shelf bring in less heat from the Greenland Sea, an increased thickness of sea ice may result there, in spite of reduced vertical stability. These model responses are generally in agreement with those suggested by Micklin (1981) and by Soviet investigations of the effect of river diversions. These annualmean results should be regarded as tentative, pending confirmation by studies which include the seasonal cycles of runoff and atmospheric forcing.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Introduction of a sub-grid hydrology in the ISBA land surface model

In atmospheric models, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff has a major influence on the terrestrial water budget, and thereby on the simulated weather or climate. River routing models are now available to convert the simulated runoff into river discharge, offering a good opportunity to validate land surface models at the regional scale. However, given the low resolution of global atmospheric models, the quality of the hydrological simulations is much dependent on various processes occurring on unresolved spatial scales. This paper focuses on the parameterization of sub-grid hydrological processes within the ISBA land surface model. Five off-line simulations are performed over the French Rhône river basin, including various sets of parameterizations related to the sub-grid variability of topography, precipitation, maximum infiltration capacity and land surface properties. Parallel experiments are conducted at a high (8 km by 8 km) and low (1° by 1°) resolution, in order to test the robustness of the simulated water budget. Additional simulations are performed using the whole package of sub-grid parameterizations plus an exponential profile with depth of saturated hydraulic conductivity, in order to investigate the interaction between the vertical soil physics and the horizontal heterogeneities. All simulations are validated against a dense network of gauging measurements, after the simulated runoff is converted into discharge using the MODCOU river routing model. Generally speaking, the new version of ISBA, with both the sub-grid hydrology and the modified hydraulic conductivity, shows a better simulation of river discharge, as well as a weaker sensitivity to model resolution. The positive impact of each individual sub-grid parameterization on the simulated discharges is more obvious at the low resolution, whereas the high-resolution simulations are more sensitive to the exponential profile with depth of saturated hydraulic conductivity.     

On the effect of large-scale atmospheric transport on chemistry and amount of atmospheric precipitation in the center of European Russia

The dependence of precipitation amount, acidity, and ionic composition on the atmospheric circulation is studied based on the computation of the back trajectories over the period of 1982–1993. Quantitative estimates of basic parameters of trajectories are derived, and their significant difference in the summer and wintertime is considered. The trajectory frequency for the cases with precipitation in the center of European Russia is computed at the regular grid points depending on the diurnal precipitation amount, acidity, and sulfate/chloride ratio. It is shown that in case of abundant precipitation both in summer and winter the highest frequency of trajectories is observed in the same regions. In the case of low precipitation, seasonal differences are observed. It is revealed that precipitation with pH > 5 is mostly connected with the air inflow from Scandinavia and the north of European Russia, while during the trajectory passage over Central and Southern Europe pH < 5 prevails in precipitation. The chlorine ions prevail most often when trajectories pass over central regions of the Mediterranean and of Middle Asia and (although somewhat less) over Scandinavia and northern Russian seas.     

Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region

Recent studies show that mid-latitude SST variations over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension influence the atmospheric circulation. However, the impact of variations in SST in the Gulf Stream region on the atmosphere has been less studied. Understanding the atmospheric response to such variability can improve the climate predictability in the North Atlantic Sector. Here we use a relatively high resolution (～1°) Atmospheric General Circulation Model to investigate the mechanisms linking observed 5-year low-pass filtered SST variability in the Gulf Stream region and atmospheric variability, with focus on precipitation. Our results indicate that up to 70 % of local convective precipitation variability on these timescales can be explained by Gulf Stream SST variations. In this region, SST and convective precipitation are strongly correlated in both summer (r = 0.73) and winter (r = 0.55). A sensitivity experiment with a prescribed local warm SST anomaly in the Gulf Stream region confirms that local SST drives most of the precipitation variability over the Gulf Stream. Increased evaporation connected to the anomalous warm SST plays a crucial role in both seasons. In summer there is an enhanced local SLP minimum, a concentrated band of low level convergence, deep upward motion and enhanced precipitation. In winter we also get enhanced precipitation, but a direct connection to deep vertical upward motion is not found. Nearly all of the anomalous precipitation in winter is connected to passing atmospheric fronts. In summer the connection between precipitation and atmospheric fronts is weaker, but still important.