Stage-structured cycles promote genetic diversity in a predator-prey system of Daphnia and algae

Competition theory predicts that population fluctuations can promote genetic diversity when combined with density-dependent selection. However, this stabilizing mechanism has rarely been tested, and was recently rejected as an explanation for maintaining diversity in natural populations of the freshwater herbivore Daphnia pulex. The primary limitation of competition theory is its failure to account for the alternative types of population cycles that are caused by size- or stage-dependent population vital rates--even though such structure both explains the fluctuating dynamics of many species and may alter the outcome of competition. Here we provide the first experimental test of whether alternative types of cycles affect natural selection in predator-prey systems. Using competing Daphnia genotypes, we show that internally generated, stage-structured cycles substantially reduce the magnitude of selection (thereby contributing to the maintenance of genetic diversity), whereas externally forced cycles show rapid competitive exclusion. The change in selection is ecologically significant, spanning the observed range in natural populations. We argue that structured cycles reduce selection through a combination of stalled juvenile development and stage-specific mortality. This potentially general fitness-equalizing mechanism may reduce the need for strong stabilizing mechanisms to explain the maintenance of genetic diversity in natural systems.     

Concurrent density dependence and independence in populations of arctic ground squirrels

No population increases without limit. The processes that prevent this can operate in either a density-dependent way (acting with increasing severity to increase mortality rates or decrease reproductive rates as density increases), a density-independent way, or in both ways simultaneously. However, ecologists disagree for two main reasons about the relative roles and influences that density-dependent and density-independent processes have in determining population size. First, empirical studies showing both processes operating simultaneously are rare. Second, time-series analyses of long-term census data sometimes overestimate dependence. By using a density-perturbation experiment on arctic ground squirrels, we show concurrent density-dependent and density-independent declines in weaning rates, followed by density-dependent declines in overwinter survival during hibernation. These two processes result in strong, density-dependent convergence of experimentally increased populations to those of control populations that had been at low, stable levels.     

The effect of aggressiveness on the population dynamics of a territorial bird

A central issue in ecology lies in identifying the importance of resources, natural enemies and behaviour in the regulation of animal populations. Much of the debate on this subject has focused on animals that show cyclic fluctuations in abundance. However, there is still disagreement about the role of extrinsic (food, parasites or predators) and intrinsic (behaviour) factors in causing cycles. Recent studies have examined the impact of natural enemies, although spatial patterns resulting from restricted dispersal or recruitment are increasingly recognized as having the potential to influence unstable population dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that population cycles in a territorial bird, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, are caused by delayed density-dependent changes in the aggressiveness and spacing behaviour of males. Here we show that increasing aggressiveness experimentally for a short period in autumn reduced recruitment and subsequent breeding density by 50%, and changed population trajectories from increasing to declining. Intrinsic processes can therefore have fundamental effects on population dynamics.     

Density-dependent mortality and the latitudinal gradient in species diversity

Ecologists have long postulated that density-dependent mortality maintains high tree diversity in the tropics. If species experience greater mortality when abundant, then more rare species can persist. Agents of density-dependent mortality (such as host-specific predators, and pathogens) may be more prevalent or have stronger effects in tropical forests, because they are not limited by climatic factors. If so, decreasing density-dependent mortality with increasing latitude could partially explain the observed latitudinal gradient in tree diversity. This hypothesis has never been tested with latitudinal data. Here we show that several temperate tree species experience density-dependent mortality between seed dispersal and seedling establishment. The proportion of species affected is equivalent to that in tropical forests, failing to support the hypothesis that this mechanism is more prevalent at tropical latitudes. We further show that density-dependent mortality is misinterpreted in previous studies. Our results and evidence from other studies suggest that density-dependent mortality is important in many forests. Thus, unless the strength of density-dependent mortality varies with latitude, this mechanism is not likely to explain the high diversity of tropical forests.     

Sex differences in emigration and mortality affect optimal management of deer populations

Populations of red deer that are limited by food, like those of many other ungulates, commonly include more females than males. We assessed the contribution of variation in sex- and age-specific rates of mortality and emigration to density-dependent changes in the adult sex ratio, using long-term observations and demographic experiments involving the red deer population on Rum, Scotland. We incorporated these effects in a stochastic model of local populations under different management regimes to show here that, when female numbers are allowed to increase to more than 60% of the ecological carrying capacity, the sustainable annual harvest of males from local deer populations will fall. Because males are typically culled by fee-paying hunters and generate more income than females, income will decrease as the male harvest falls. Because numbers of female deer throughout much of the Highlands probably exceed the threshold at which male density starts to be affected, many managers might be able to raise income from local deer populations by reducing female numbers, with potential benefits to the vegetation of Scottish Highland environments.     

Density cycles and an offspring quantity and quality game driven by natural selection

A long-standing hypothesis posits that natural selection can favour two female strategies when density cycles. At low density, females producing many smaller progeny are favoured when the intrinsic rate of increase, r, governs population growth. At peak density, females producing fewer, high-quality, progeny are favoured when the carrying capacity, K, is exceeded and the population crashes. Here we report on the first example of a genetic r versus K selection game that promotes stable population cycles in lizards. Decade-long fitness studies and game theory demonstrated that two throat-colour morphs were refined by selection in which the strength of natural selection varied with density. Orange-throated females, r strategists, produced many eggs and were favoured at low density. Conversely, yellow-throated females, K strategists, produced large eggs and were favoured at high density. Progeny size should also be under negative frequency-dependent selection in that large progeny will have a survival advantage when rare, but the advantage disappears when they become common. We confirmed this prediction by seeding field plots with rare and common giant hatchlings. Thus, intrinsic causes of frequency- and density-dependent selection promotes an evolutionary game with two-generation oscillations.     

Survival variability and population density in fish populations

To understand the processes that regulate the abundance and persistence of wild populations is a fundamental goal of ecology and a prerequisite for the management of living resources. Variable abundance data, however, make the demonstration of regulation processes challenging. A previously overlooked aspect in understanding how populations are regulated is the possibility that the pattern of variability--its strength as a function of population size--may be more than 'noise', thus revealing much about the characteristics of population regulation. Here we show that patterns in survival variability do provide evidence of regulation through density. Using a large, global compilation of marine, anadromous and freshwater fisheries data, we examine the relationship between the variability of survival and population abundance. The interannual variability in progeny survival increases at low adult abundance in an inversely density-dependent fashion. This pattern is consistent with models in which density dependence enters after the larval stage. The findings are compatible with very simple forms of density dependence: even a linear increase of juvenile mortality with adult density adequately explains the results. The model predictions explain why populations with strong regulation may experience large increases in variability at low densities. Furthermore, the inverse relationship between survival variability and the strength of density dependence has important consequences for fisheries management and recovery, and population persistence or extinction.     

Small-amplitude cycles emerge from stage-structured interactions in Daphnia-algal systems

A long-standing issue in ecology is reconciling the apparent stability of many populations with robust predictions of large-amplitude population cycles from general theory on consumer-resource interactions. Even when consumers are decoupled from dynamic resources, large-amplitude cycles can theoretically emerge from delayed feedback processes found in many consumers. Here we show that resource-dependent mortality and a dynamic developmental delay in consumers produces a new type of small-amplitude cycle that coexists with large-amplitude fluctuations in coupled consumer-resource systems. A distinctive characteristic of the small-amplitude cycles is slow juvenile development for consumers, leading to a developmental delay that is longer than the cycle period. By contrast, the period exceeds the delay in large-amplitude cycles. These theoretical predictions may explain previous empirical results on coexisting attractors found in Daphnia-algal systems. To test this, we used bioassay experiments that measure the growth rates of individuals in populations exhibiting each type of cycle. The results were consistent with predictions. Together, the new theory and experiments establish that two very general features of consumers--a resource-dependent juvenile stage duration and resource-dependent mortality--combine to produce small-amplitude resource-consumer cycles. This phenomenon may contribute to the prevalence of small-amplitude fluctuations in many other consumer-resource populations.     

Single-species models for many-species food webs

Most species live in species-rich food webs; yet, for a century, most mathematical models for population dynamics have included only one or two species. We ask whether such models are relevant to the real world. Two-species population models of an interacting consumer and resource collapse to one-species dynamics when recruitment to the resource population is unrelated to resource abundance, thereby weakening the coupling between consumer and resource. We predict that, in nature, generalist consumers that feed on many species should similarly show one-species dynamics. We test this prediction using cyclic populations, in which it is easier to infer underlying mechanisms, and which are widespread in nature. Here we show that one-species cycles can be distinguished from consumer resource cycles by their periods. We then analyse a large number of time series from cyclic populations in nature and show that almost all cycling, generalist consumers examined have periods that are consistent with one-species dynamics. Thus generalist consumers indeed behave as if they were one-species populations, and a one-species model is a valid representation for generalist population dynamics in many-species food webs.     

Evidence of intra-specific competition for food in a pelagic seabird

The factors affecting the population dynamics of seabirds have long intrigued biologists. Current data suggest that density-dependent depletion of prey during the breeding season may regulate population size. However, much of the evidence for this has been circumstantial, and the underlying mechanisms are unclear. Here, we show that the per capita population growth rates of northern gannet Morus bassanus at colonies in Britain and Ireland have declined with increasing population size. Furthermore, direct observations reveal that the mean foraging trip duration of breeding gannets is positively correlated with colony size, both among colonies of different sizes in the same year, and within colonies as they change in size. To understand this phenomenon, we have developed a model which demonstrates that disturbance of fish alone can readily generate conditions under which gannets at larger colonies have to travel further to obtain food.     

Density-dependent mortality in an oceanic copepod population

Planktonic copepods are primary consumers in the ocean and are perhaps the most numerous metazoans on earth. Secondary production by these zooplankton supports most food webs of the open sea, directly affecting pelagic fish populations and the biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean. Models of marine ecosystems are quite sensitive to the formulation of the term for zooplankton mortality, although there are few data available to constrain mortality rates in such models. Here we present the first evidence for nonlinear, density-dependent mortality rates of open-ocean zooplankton. A high-frequency time series reveals that per capita mortality rates of eggs of Calanus finmarchicus Gunnerus are a function of the abundance of adult females and juveniles. The temporal dynamics of zooplankton populations can be influenced as much by time-dependent mortality rates as by variations in 'bottom up' forcing. The functional form and rates chosen for zooplankton mortality in ecosystem models can alter the balance of pelagic ecosystems, modify elemental fluxes into the ocean's interior, and modulate interannual variability in pelagic ecosystems.     

Parasites and climate synchronize red grouse populations

There is circumstantial evidence that correlated climatic conditions can drive animal populations into synchronous fluctuations in abundance. However, it is unclear whether climate directly affects the survival and fecundity of individuals, or indirectly, by influencing food and natural enemies. Here we propose that climate affects trophic interactions and could be an important mechanism for synchronizing spatially distributed populations. We show that in specific years the size of red grouse populations in northern England either increases or decreases in synchrony. In these years, widespread and correlated climatic conditions during May and July affect populations regionally and influence the density-dependent transmission of the gastrointestinal nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite that reduces grouse fecundity. This in turn forces grouse populations into synchrony. We conclude that specific climatic events may lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases or pests that may cause dramatic, synchronized changes in the abundance of their hosts.     

Generation time and temporal scaling of bird population dynamics

Theoretical studies have shown that variation in density regulation strongly influences population dynamics, yet our understanding of factors influencing the strength of density dependence in natural populations still is limited. Consequently, few general hypotheses have been advanced to explain the large differences between species in the magnitude of population fluctuations. One reason for this is that the detection of density regulation in population time series is complicated by time lags induced by the life history of species that make it difficult to separate the relative contributions of intrinsic and extrinsic factors to the population dynamics. Here we use population time series for 23 bird species to estimate parameters of a stochastic density-dependent age-structured model. We show that both the strength of total density dependence in the life history and the magnitude of environmental stochasticity, including transient fluctuations in age structure, increase with generation time. These results indicate that the relationships between demographic and life-history traits in birds translate into distinct population dynamical patterns that are apparent only on a scale of generations.     

Evolvability of an RNA virus is determined by its mutational neighbourhood

The ubiquity of mechanisms that generate genetic variation has spurred arguments that evolvability, the ability to generate adaptive variation, has itself evolved in response to natural selection. The high mutation rate of RNA viruses is postulated to be an adaptation for evolvability, but the paradox is that whereas some RNA viruses evolve at high rates, others are highly stable. Here we show that evolvability in the RNA bacteriophage phi6 is also determined by the accessibility of advantageous genotypes within the mutational neighbourhood (the set of mutants one or a few mutational steps away). We found that two phi6 populations that were derived from a single ancestral phage repeatedly evolved at different rates and toward different fitness maxima. Fitness measurements of individual phages showed that the fitness distribution of mutants differed between the two populations. Whereas population A, which evolved toward a higher maximum, had a distribution that contained many advantageous mutants, population B, which evolved toward a lower maximum, had a distribution that contained only deleterious mutants. We interpret these distributions to measure the fitness effects of genotypes that are mutationally available to the two populations. Thus, the evolvability of phi6 is constrained by the distribution of its mutational neighbours, despite the fact that this phage has the characteristic high mutation rate of RNA viruses.     

具有一类Holling功能性反应的捕食—被捕食系统的极限环

本文研究一类随着食物量的增加捕食者捕食速度的变化率起变化的种群模型。得到它在R{(x,y):x≥0,y≥0}内存在唯一正平衡点的充要条件和该系统在R内全局渐近稳定的条件,指出其可以出现至少一个(或两个单侧环)或至少两个极限环线的情形以及所存在的极限环的大致位置,从而得出两种群在相互竞争中一种群趋于灭绝或两者互惠共存而达到“生态平衡”的条件。     

Experimental demonstration of chaos in a microbial food web

Discovering why natural population densities change over time and vary with location is a central goal of ecological and evolutional disciplines. The recognition that even simple ecological systems can undergo chaotic behaviour has made chaos a topic of considerable interest among theoretical ecologists. However, there is still a lack of experimental evidence that chaotic behaviour occurs in the real world of coexisting populations in multi-species systems. Here we study the dynamics of a defined predator-prey system consisting of a bacterivorous ciliate and two bacterial prey species. The bacterial species preferred by the ciliate was the superior competitor. Experimental conditions were kept constant with continuous cultivation in a one-stage chemostat. We show that the dynamic behaviour of such a two-prey, one-predator system includes chaotic behaviour, as well as stable limit cycles and coexistence at equilibrium. Changes in the population dynamics were triggered by changes in the dilution rates of the chemostat. The observed dynamics were verified by estimating the corresponding Lyapunov exponents. Such a defined microbial food web offers a new possibility for the experimental study of deterministic chaos in real biological systems.     

一类具有密度制约的捕食系统极限环问题

根据生态种群动力学原理，考虑一类具有密度制约的食饵-捕食者系统，利用微分方程定性理论，对系统的正平衡点性态进行分析，同时对系统的中心-焦点型奇点的焦点量进行计算，根据Hopf分支理论讨论极限环的存在情况，并给出了正平衡点外围存在唯一极限环的充分条件，最后利用matlab软件进行数据仿真，验证所得结论的准确性.     

Scratching the surface of skin development

The epidermis and its appendages develop from a single layer of multipotent embryonic progenitor keratinocytes. Embryonic stem cells receive cues from their environment that instruct them to commit to a particular differentiation programme and generate a stratified epidermis, hair follicles or sebaceous glands. Exciting recent developments have focused on how adult skin epithelia maintain populations of stem cells for use in the natural cycles of hair follicle regeneration and for re-epithelialization in response to wounding.     

The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases

It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R(0), should exceed one, where R(0) is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population. However, an increase in R(0), even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R(0) > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly.     

The potential role of pathogens in biological control

It is now well established that pathogens such as viruses, fungi bacteria and protozoans can have profound effects on the dynamics of their invertebrate host populations. Theoretical models of invertebrate host-pathogen interactions which assume uniform structure of the pathogen population may reasonably explain the oscillatory behaviour observed in some systems, but do not adequately describe the existence of more constant populations found in other host-pathogen interactions. An examination of the literature relating to these relatively stable systems suggests that the common thread is the eventual transmission of some of the more protected, longer-lived stages of the pathogen occurring in reservoirs, such as the soil, host cadavers on trees, or the live host itself. In this letter, I propose a new theoretical model which incorporates this population structure and accounts for the range of dynamics observed in natural systems. In particular, I show that host populations may be regulated to low and relatively constant densities if sufficient numbers of pathogens are trans-located from pathogen reservoirs to habitats where transmission can occur. An understanding of pathogen reservoirs may be of value in the design of biological control programmes and may greatly increase the effectiveness of pathogens as biological control agents.