Probabilistic Prediction Models for Aggregate Quarry Siting

Weights-of-evidence (WofE) and logistic regression techniques were used in a GIS framework to predict the spatial likelihood (prospectivity) of crushed-stone aggregate quarry development. The joint conditional probability models, based on geology, transportation network, and population density variables, were defined using quarry location and time of development data for the New England States, North Carolina, and South Carolina, USA. The Quarry Operation models describe the distribution of active aggregate quarries, independent of the date of opening. The New Quarry models describe the distribution of aggregate quarries when they open. Because of the small number of new quarries developed in the study areas during the last decade, independent New Quarry models have low parameter estimate reliability. The performance of parameter estimates derived for Quarry Operation models, defined by a larger number of active quarries in the study areas, were tested and evaluated to predict the spatial likelihood of new quarry development. Population density conditions at the time of new quarry development were used to modify the population density variable in the Quarry Operation models to apply to new quarry development sites. The Quarry Operation parameters derived for the New England study area, Carolina study area, and the combined New England and Carolina study areas were all similar in magnitude and relative strength. The Quarry Operation model parameters, using the modified population density variables, were found to be a good predictor of new quarry locations. Both the aggregate industry and the land management community can use the model approach to target areas for more detailed site evaluation for quarry location. The models can be revised easily to reflect actual or anticipated changes in transportation and population features.     

Geologic and societal factors affecting the international oceanic transport of aggregate

Crushed stone and sand and gravel are the two main sources of natural aggregate, and together comprise approximately half the volume and tonnage of mined material in the United States. Natural aggregate is a bulky, heavy material without special or unique properties, and it is commonly used near its source of production to minimize haulage cost. However, remoteness is no longer an absolute disqualifier for the production of aggregate. Today interstate aggregate routinely is shipped hundreds of kilometers by rail and barge. In addition, during 1992, the United States imported 1,317,000 metric tons of aggregate from Canada and 1,531,000 metric tons from Mexico. A number of ports on the Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States receive imports of crushed stone from foreign sources for transport to various parts of the eastern United States. These areas either lack adequate supplies of aggregate or are augmenting their supplies because they have difficulties meeting current demand. These difficulties may include poor stone quality, environmental permitting problems, or transportation. Certain societal and geologic conditions of New York City and Philadelphia along the Atlantic Coast, and Tampa and New Orleans along the Gulf Coast, are discussed to demonstrate the different combinations of issues that contribute to the economic viability of importing crushed stone.     

The biaxial compression mechanical properties of crushed rock

Crushed rock subgrade, as one of the roadbed-cooling methods, has been widely used in the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Much attention has been paid on the cooling effect of crushed rock; however, the mechanical properties of crushed rock are somehow neglected. Based on the discrete element method, biaxial compression test condition for crushed rock is compiled in FISH language in PFC^2D, and the natural shape of crushed rock is simulated with super particle "cluster". The effect of particle size, crushed rock strength and confining pressure level on overall mechanical properties of the crushed rock aggregate are respectively analyzed. Results show that crushed rock of large particle size plays an essential framework role, which is mainly responsible for the deformation of crushed rock aggregate. The strength of gravel has a great influence on overall mechanical properties which means that strength attenuation caused by the freeze thaw cycles cannot be ignored. The stress-strain curves can be divided into two stages including shear contraction and shear expansion at different confining pressures.     

Environmentalism and Natural Aggregate Mining

Sustaining a developed economy and expanding a developing one require the use of large volumes of natural aggregate. Almost all human activity (commercial, recreational, or leisure) is transacted in or on facilities constructed from natural aggregate. In our urban and suburban worlds, we are almost totally dependent on supplies of water collected behind dams and transported through aqueducts made from concrete. Natural aggregate is essential to the facilities that produce energy—hydroelectric dams and coal-fired powerplants. Ironically, the utility created for mankind by the use of natural aggregate is rarely compared favorably with the environmental impacts of mining it. Instead, the empty quarries and pits are seen as large negative environmental consequences. At the root of this disassociation is the philosophy of environmentalism, which flavors our perceptions of the excavation, processing, and distribution of natural aggregate. The two end-member ideas in this philosophy are ecocentrism and anthropocentrism. Ecocentrism takes the position that the natural world is a organism whose arteries are the rivers—their flow must not be altered. The soil is another vital organ and must not be covered with concrete and asphalt. The motto of the ecocentrist is man must live more lightly on the land. The anthropocentrist wants clean water and air and an uncluttered landscape for human use. Mining is allowed and even encouraged, but dust and noise from quarry and pit operations must be minimized. The large volume of truck traffic is viewed as a real menace to human life and should be regulated and isolated. The environmental problems that the producers of natural aggregate (crushed stone and sand and gravel) face today are mostly difficult social and political concerns associated with the large holes dug in the ground and the large volume of heavy truck traffic associated with quarry and pit operations. These concerns have increased in recent years as society's demand for living space has encroached on the sites of production; in other words, the act of production has engendered condemnation. Many other environmental problems that are associated with dust and noise and blasting from quarry and pit operations have been reduced through the efficient use of technology. Recycling concrete in buildings, bridges, and roads and asphaltic pavements will ultimately reduce the demand for virgin natural aggregate. The impact created by the large holes in the ground required for the mining of natural aggregate can be greatly reduced by planning their reclamation before mining begins.     

一种改进人口数据空间化的方法:农村居住地重分类

人口( 统计) 数据空间化是解决统计数据与自然要素数据融合分析的有效途径。本文在论 述已有人口空间化方法的基础上, 认为遥感影像得到的居民地数据是表达人口分布的最好指标。 为了使居民地数据更好地应用于人口空间化的研究, 论文在分析各种与人口居住密度相关指标 的基础上, 确定了用农村居民地面积所占百分比对农村居民地进行重新分级, 然后应用于人口空 间化的计算。结果检验表明, 人口空间分布数据的误差从分级前的17.4%降到分级后的12%, 尤 其是误差高于30%的乡镇个数从8 个减少到1 个, 该方法有效地提高了人口空间数据的精度。     

Weights of Evidence Modeling of Mineral Potential: A Case Study Using Small Number of Prospects,Abra, Philippines

Weights of evidence (WofE) modeling usually is applied to map mineral potential in areas with large number of deposits/prospects. In this paper, WofE modeling is applied to a case study area measuring about 920 km² with 12 known porphyry copper prospects. A pixel size of 100 m × 100 m was used in the spatial data analyses to represent in a raster-based GIS lateral extents of prospects and of geological features considered as spatial evidence. Predictor maps were created based on (a) estimates of studentized values of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence; (b) proportion of number of prospects in zones where spatial evidence is present; and (c) geological interpretations of positive spatial association between prospects and spatial evidence. Uncertainty because of missing geochemical evidence is shown to have an influence on tests of assumption of conditional independence (CI) among predictor maps with respect to prospects. For the final predictive model, assumption of CI is rejected based on omnibus test but is accepted based on a new omnibus test. The final predictive model, which delineates 30% of study area as zones with potential for porphyry copper, has 83% success rate and 73% prediction rate. The results demonstrate plausibility of WofE modeling of mineral potential in large areas with small number of mineral prospects.     

COMPREHENDING COMPLEXITY

Since 1905 the Bureau of the Census has devised and applied concepts and criteria for delineating metropolitan areas and has published statistics describing them. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and its predecessor, the Bureau of the Budget, have defined metropolitan areas for use by federal agencies since introducing standard metropolitan areas (SMAs) for the 1950 census. In the late 20th century, new national United States settlement forms emerged, and distinctions between urban and rural areas or between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas lost both their theoretical and practical significance. A proposed system of national settlement areas, applied experimentally to eight diverse states, uses counties (towns and cities in New England) as basic statistical units, with each categorized by its population density as ranked within both its state and the nation. Relative population density alone is an adequate and appropriate surrogate for activity patterns and interaction among geographic units, approximating the patterns delineated by current practice, while blanketing the nation with non-overlapping statistical aggregates. [Key words: metropolitan area definition, urban population density, census geography.]     

Spatial distribution of unconventional gas wells and human populations in the Marcellus Shale in the United States: Vulnerability analysis

Modern forms of drilling and extraction have recently led to a boom in oil and gas production in the U.S. and stimulated a controversy around its economic benefits and environmental and human health impacts. Using an environmental justice paradigm this study applies Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial analysis to determine whether certain vulnerable human populations are unequally exposed to pollution from unconventional gas wells in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. Several GIS-based approaches were used to identify exposed areas, and a t-test was used to find statistically significant differences between rural populations living close to wells and rural populations living farther away. Sociodemographic indicators include age (children and the elderly), poverty level, education level, and race at the census tract level. Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) technique was applied to find spatial clusters where both high well density and high proportions of vulnerable populations occur. The results demonstrate that the environmental injustice occurs in areas with unconventional wells in Pennsylvania with respect to the poor population. There are also localized clusters of vulnerable populations in exposed areas in all three states: Pennsylvania (for poverty and elderly population), West Virginia (for poverty, elderly population, and education level) and Ohio (for children).     

A Modified Weights-of-Evidence Method for Regional Mineral Resource Estimation

Weights-of-evidence (WofE) modeling and weighted logistic regression (WLR) are two methods of regional mineral resource estimation, which are closely related: For example, if all the map layers selected for further analysis are binary and conditionally independent of the mineral occurrences, expected WofE contrast parameters are equal to WLR coefficients except for the constant term that depends on unit area size. Although a good WofE strategy is supposed to achieve approximate conditional independence, a common problem is that the final estimated probabilities are biased. If there are N deposits in a study area and the sum of all estimated probabilities is written as S, then WofE generally results in S > N. The difference S − N can be tested for statistical significance. Although WLR yields S = N, WLR coefficients generally have relatively large variances. Recently, several methods have been developed to obtain WofE weights that either result in S = N, or become approximately unbiased. A method that has not been applied before consists of first performing WofE modeling and following this by WLR applied to the weights. This method results in modified weights with unbiased probabilities satisfying S = N. An additional advantage of this approach is that it automatically copes with missing data on some layers because weights of unit areas with missing data can be set equal to zero as is generally practiced in WofE applications. Some practical examples of application are provided.     

Assessment of Exploration Bias in Data-Driven Predictive Models and the Estimation of Undiscovered Resources

The spatial distribution of discovered resources may not fully mimic the distribution of all such resources, discovered and undiscovered, because the process of discovery is biased by accessibility factors (e.g., outcrops, roads, and lakes) and by exploration criteria. In data-driven predictive models, the use of training sites (resource occurrences) biased by exploration criteria and accessibility does not necessarily translate to a biased predictive map. However, problems occur when evidence layers correlate with these same exploration factors. These biases then can produce a data-driven model that predicts known occurrences well, but poorly predicts undiscovered resources. Statistical assessment of correlation between evidence layers and map-based exploration factors is difficult because it is difficult to quantify the “degree of exploration.” However, if such a degree-of-exploration map can be produced, the benefits can be enormous. Not only does it become possible to assess this correlation, but it becomes possible to predict undiscovered, instead of discovered, resources. Using geothermal systems in Nevada, USA, as an example, a degree-of-exploration model is created, which then is resolved into purely explored and unexplored equivalents, each occurring within coextensive study areas. A weights-of-evidence (WofE) model is built first without regard to the degree of exploration, and then a revised WofE model is calculated for the “explored fraction” only. Differences in the weights between the two models provide a correlation measure between the evidence and the degree of exploration. The data used to build the geothermal evidence layers are perceived to be independent of degree of exploration. Nevertheless, the evidence layers correlate with exploration because exploration has preferred the same favorable areas identified by the evidence patterns. In this circumstance, however, the weights for the “explored” WofE model minimize this bias. Using these revised weights, posterior probability is extrapolated into unexplored areas to estimate undiscovered deposits.     

浙江自然地理环境与采石文化的关系

浙江是石材大省,采石文化源远流长,近年来陆续发现多个古代采石遗迹。浙江采石文化是在浙江特有的地质、地貌、水系、气候等自然地理要素的综合作用下产生和发展起来的。浙江的地质条件是区域采石文化发生和发展的前提条件。“七山一水二分田”的地貌格局对采石文化的产生和发展具有重要影响。山地丘陵本身就是潜在的采石场所,蕴藏着丰富的石材资源,平原中的孤丘、平原与山地丘陵过渡地带以及盆地边缘地带常常分布有采石场,而特殊的河口地貌、漫长曲折的海岸线和数量众多的岛屿都会在一定程度上对采石文化产生影响。纵横交错的水系为石材的运输提供了便捷,有利于采石文化的传播,而河流水利工程的建设也会对采石文化产生一定的影响。特殊的沿海气候条件也会对采石文化产生一定的影响。采石文化对自然地理环境会产生一定的反作用,影响并且改变当地的地貌、水文、植被等自然地理环境要素。人类的采石活动对自然地理环境的改变主要是通过采石场景观的形成和石材的使用两条途径来实现的。     

The diversity of diversity: a critique of geodemographic classification

We report on an examination of two geodemographic classification systems based on an analysis of 1991 census variables, for districts, wards and census enumeration districts in England and Wales. We also review the associations among the variables examined, the extent to which certain underlying components might account for the overall variation and the types of areas that are least typical. The results show that small areas are different in many different ways; a few dimensions cannot provide enough information to describe an area fully. Diversity on most scales remains even after geodemographicclassification, emphasizing the advantages of task-specific classification.     

The cooling effect of crushed rock structures on permafrost under an embankment

Based on the analysis and comparison of soil temperature, thermal regime and permafrost table under the experimental embankment of crushed rock structures in Beiluhe, results show that crushed rock structures provide an extensive cooling effect, which produces a rising permafrost table and decreasing soil temperatures. The rise of the permafrost table under the embankment ranges from an increase of 1.08 m to 1.67 m, with an average of 1.27 m from 2004 to 2007. Mean annual soil temperatures under the crushed rock layer embankment decreased significantly from 2005 to 2007, with average decreases of ?1.03 °C at the depth of 0.5 m, ?1.14 °C at the depth of 1.5 m, and ?0.5 °C at the depth of 5 m. During this period, mean annual soil temperatures under the crushed rock cover embankment showed a slight decrease at shallow depths, with an average decrease of ?0.2 °C at the depth of 0.5 m and 1.5 m, but a slight rise at the depth of 5 m. After the crushed rock structures were closed or crammed with sand, the cooling effect of the crushed rock layer embankment was greatly reduced and that of the crushed rock cover embankment was just slightly reduced.     

Identifying and assessing the residency effect in Pocatello,Idaho, using combined census and parcel data

Human residency is the spatial effect source on ecosystem and thus it should be studied and assessed. Supporting residency effect research, this study developed and applied procedures and a model to combine census and parcel data for the assessment. The case study is in Pocatello, Idaho, where revealing land service associated with flood control and locating/evaluating resident effect are needed. Methods include (1) data mining, (2) land service valuation, (3) data screening, (4) integration of census and parcel data, (5) data screening, and (5) analysis and modeling with R programing language and ArcMap. Results are, for land service assessment, land value per area unit in residence areas (LAND) along the concrete channel (for flood control) was less than that along the Portneuf River. Spatial responses under LAND to a source effect (either the concrete channel or the river) are the same. The applied methods helped locate and assess a variety of residency effects spatio-temporally. Results informed the human preferences under LAND and the effect distribution to support decision-making. Technically, using the parcels as a baseline provided comprehensive results with a fine resolution for the effect study, particularly as combined with the census data. This study suggests using a data screening and validation procedure besides the mining approach to minimize outcome uncertainty.     

Comparison of methods for quantifying consumer spending on retail using publicly available data

Data and estimates on the spatial distribution of consumer spending form the foundation of retail location analysis and location-allocation spatial interaction models. The presented research presents and compares four methods to estimate consumer spending that combine different levels of detail in household spending data across multiple levels of household aggregation (i.e. census units). Results demonstrate that these methods, which use publicly available census data, can capture a substantial amount of reported sales. Furthermore, comparison of the best method with the de facto industry standard for business data in Canada shows a strong correlation (R2 > 0.85) across space and is within 10% of aggregate industry-derived spending estimate. Analysis of the spending data across space finds that the majority of spending occurs in census metropolitan areas with high spending clusters that offer unique opportunities for retail location. We interrogate the socio-demographic characteristics of the population in these high spending clusters and find that only a few variables are required to explain a large proportion of the variance in consumer spending. The overarching outcome of the presented research is that small-to-medium businesses, planners, and municipalities do not need expensive proprietary data to estimate and predict consumer spending and market demand.     

Measuring short-term population mobility among indigenous Australians: options and implications

"Despite the fact that indigenous Australians are known to be frequently mobile over the short term, statistical information regarding this population movement is grossly deficient.... This paper examines various means by which short-term population movement can be quantified to yield aggregate indicators of demographic impact. First, census data are used to establish the rate and pattern of inter-regional, short-term displacement. This reveals regional urban centres as net recipients of temporary residents while most rural areas experience temporary absenteeism. Secondly, results from household surveys are reported stressing the importance of including visitors to households in the estimation of service populations. Thirdly, administrative data on occupancy in urban hostels are used to derive indicators of the duration of movement."     

COMMUTING DIRECTIONALITY,A FUNCTIONAL MEASURE FOR METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN AREA STANDARDS

The daily journey to work is ubiquitous in American life. Portraying commuting behavior graphically at the subcounty level, however, has been hampered by technical obstacles. With desktop GIS and new analytical tools, the spatial particulars of commuting can be given clarity. This paper explores the use of a spatial statistic, the mean weighted direction of journey-to-work flows, to aggregate and depict commuting at the census tract level for the purpose of delineating metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. Using 1990 census data for Iowa, tract-to-tract flow vectors and resultant vectors are calculated and drawn for each census tract, and a set of functional areas for the state is produced. The research suggests that the concept of commuting directionality is a community characteristic requiring further attention. Directionality may be a useful component in a census-tract-level national settlement classification system made possible with disaggregated data and annual updates through the American Community Survey. [Key words: metropolitan areas, commuting, GIS, census tract, settlement classification.]     

基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化

提出了一种基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化方法。以江苏省人口数据空间化为例,在采用核密度估计法得到江苏省镇(乡、街道)居民点密度后,运用基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化计算公式获得江苏省1 000m×1 000m的人口密度格网图,结果表明:江苏省人口分布的热点地区正是在建的三大都市圈(苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈和徐州都市圈),其中苏锡常都市圈的人口分布呈现各向异性,而南京和徐州都市圈的人口分布则表现为各向同性;人口密度不仅取决于居民点密度,还与平均每个居民点的人口数密切相关,居民点密度大的区域的人口密度不一定大,居民点密度小的区域的人口密度也不一定小。     

北京城区流动人口扩散格局及驱动机制

基于街道/乡镇尺度人口普查数据,利用GIS空间分析和数理统计方法,从规模、占比、密度和集聚度等4个层面分析北京城区流动人口扩散特征,并揭示其驱动机制。研究发现, 2000~2010年北京城区流动人口规模和密度增加,但流动人口占常住总人口比重和流动人口空间集聚度下降,流动人口呈现明显的空间扩散态势。 北京城区流动人口呈“核-边扩散”格局,城市核心区流动人口规模、密度、占比和空间集聚度不断下降,城市边缘区流动人口规模、密度、占比和空间集聚度逐步上升。 北京城区流动人口的“核-边扩散”格局是经济因素的直接推动、城建因素的间接推动、交通因素的硬性诱导、制度因素的软性诱导等共同作用的结果。