Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages

Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070–2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near‐pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species’ distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate‐induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present‐day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high‐flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change.     

Responses of streamflow to climate variability and human activities in the Yanhe watershed,China

The effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow are of great importance for the water resource management, and these studies have attracted a lot of attention in recent years. In this study, we made an assessment of the annual streamflow record in the Yanhe watershed from 1960 to 2009 and analyzed the response of streamflow to changes in climate and human activities. The results indicated that the annual streamflow exhibited a decreasing trend (it decreased 41.90 mm). The main factor that influenced the annual streamflow was climate change, which can be seen to inform the result of a decrease of 25.27 mm (60.31%). Likewise, human activities caused the streamflow to decrease by 17.04 mm (40.67%). Finally, the mean effect of vegetation on the annual streamflow was approximately 104.84 mm. Moreover, the presence of vegetation had stronger effects on the streamflow in wetter years.     

The effect of climate anomalies and human ignition factor on wildfires in Russian boreal forests

Over the last few years anomalies in temperature and precipitation in northern Russia have been regarded as manifestations of climate change. During the same period exceptional forest fire seasons have been reported, prompting many authors to suggest that these in turn are due to climate change. In this paper, we examine the number and areal extent of forest fires across boreal Russia for the period 2002-2005 within two forest categories: 'intact forests' and 'non-intact forests'. Results show a far lower density of fire events in intact forests (5-14 times less) and that those events tend to be in the first 10 km buffer zone inside intact forest areas. Results also show that, during exceptional climatic years (2002 and 2003), fire event density is twice that found during normal years (2004 and 2005) and average areal extent of fire events (burned area) in intact forests is 2.5 times larger than normal. These results suggest that a majority of the fire events in boreal Russia are of human origin and a maximum of one-third of their impact (areal extension) can be attributed to climate anomalies alone, the rest being due to the combined effect of human disturbances and climate anomalies.     

晋西黄土高原丘陵沟壑区清水河流域径流对土地利用与气候变化的响应

水资源短缺是黄土高原面临的最为关键的一个生态环境问题。研究黄土高原地区河川径流演变对土地利用与气候变化的响应是开展适应性流域管理的基础。该文以黄河流域中游山西省吉县境内的清水河流域(面积436 km²)为研究对象, 采用非参数统计秩检验法(Mann-Kendall)、滑动t检验和跃变参数分析法, 对该流域1959-2005年的年径流量、降水量和潜在蒸发散量进行了趋势分析和突变点验证; 用遥感数据判读和解译的结果分析了该流域不同时期土地利用变化; 在此基础上根据水量平衡原理, 分析了土地利用变化和气候变化对流域径流变化的贡献, 并采用FDC曲线法分析了二者对高、中、低流量变化的影响。研究结果表明: 该流域年径流量在1959-2005年的47年间呈显著下降趋势, 突变点出现在1980年, 但该流域降水量没有出现明显的趋势性变化, 而以Hamon公式计算的流域年潜在蒸发散则呈显著上升趋势, 其突变点出现在1997年。该流域气候变化和土地利用变化对年径流减少的贡献率分别为46.79%和53.21%。综合以上结果可以看出, 潜在蒸发散增加和乔木林地面积增加是导致该流域径流减少的重要原因。     

基于NDVI的三江源地区植被生长对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究

采用Spot VEGETATION 逐旬NDVI数据、1 ∶ 100万植被类型图和气象站资料,在掌握近10a三江源地区植被变化趋势基础上,分不同植被类型探讨植被生长对气候变化的响应机制,并通过分离气候要素与人类活动对NDVI的贡献,定量评估生态保护与建设工程的实施效果。结果表明,区域尺度上,三江源地区2001-2010年植被生长呈好转趋势,植被增长从东南向西北递减;在10a时间尺度上,气候变化是影响植被生长的决定性因素,但人类活动可在短期内加快植被变化速率,气候要素和人类活动对植被生长的贡献分别为79.32%和20.68%;降水和气温对植被生长的影响程度相当,其中受春季和秋季的降水和气温影响最大,尤其是植被生长季前后一个月(4月份和10月份)的气候条件;与林地和灌丛相比,高寒草地受气候条件的抑制作用更为明显,其中高寒草甸受气候变化的影响最大,NDVI与降水和气温均具有较高相关性,高寒草原受气温的影响比较大,而高山植被受降水的抑制作用更为明显;在气候条件利于植被生长的趋势下,2001-2010年三江源地区的人类活动对生态环境表现出正影响,实测NDVI_max与模拟NDVI_max之间的残差为0.0863,表明生态保护与建设行动取得初步成效,其中黄河源区东部和长江源区通天河两侧的生态恢复效益最为明显,而在唐古拉山、昆仑山、布青山、阿尼玛卿山等山脉的周边地区,人类活动对生态环境仍表现为负影响;时间尺度上人类活动对植被的正影响呈现出下降趋势,2001-2010年NDVI_max残差的回归斜率为-0.0039,表明生态项目实施的短期行为严重,生态建设的效果缺乏长效性。     

Adapting a patch model to simulate the sensitivity of Central-Canadian boreal ecosystems to climate variability

Aim To investigate effects of within-season and interannual climate variability on the behaviour of boreal forest ecosystems as simulated by the FORSKA2 patch model. Location Eleven climate station locations distributed along a transect across the boreal zone of central Canada. Methods FORSKA2′s water balance submodel was modified to enable it to behave more realistically under a varying climate. Long-term actual monthly time-series of temperature and precipitation data were detrended and used to drive the modified model. Long-term monthly averages of the same detrended data were used to drive the unmodified model. Results Modifications created significant improvements when simulating species composition at sites in boreal Canada. Simulated forest biomass values were slightly higher than those obtained from the unmodified model using averaged climate records, but resembled the observed distribution of vegetation more closely. Main conclusions Modified FORSKA2 suggests that boreal forest composition and distribution may be more sensitive to changes in monthly rainfall data than to changes in temperature. Climate variability affects seasonal water balances and should be considered when using patch models to forecast vegetation dynamics during and following a period of climate transition. The modified model provided improved representation of the latitudinal trend in spatially averaged biomass density in this region.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area and time period) under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed human‐caused fires were strongly related to human activities (e.g. landscape accessibility), including proximity to settlements and roads. In contrast, fuel moisture and vegetation type were the most important controlling factors on the spatial pattern of lightning fires. Both current and future projected spatial distributions of the overall (human‐ + lightning‐caused) fire occurrence density were strongly clustered along linear components of human infrastructure. Our results demonstrated that the predicted change in overall fire occurrence density is positively related to the degree of temperature and precipitation change, although the spatial pattern of change is expected to vary spatially according to proximity to human ignition sources, and in a manner inconsistent with predicted climate change. Compared to the current overall fire occurrence density (median value: 0.36 fires per 1000 km² per year), the overall fire occurrence density is projected to increase by 30% under the CGCM3 B1 scenario and by 230% under HadCM3 A2 scenario in 2081–2100, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change effects may not outweigh the effects of human influence on overall fire occurrence over the next century in this cultural landscape. Accurate forecasts of future fire‐climate relationships should account for anthropogenic influences on fire ignition density, such as roads and proximity to settlements.     

Climate warming causes photobiont degradation and carbon starvation in a boreal climate sentinel lichen

Premise

The long-term potential for acclimation by lichens to changing climates is poorly known, despite their prominent roles in forested ecosystems. Although often considered “extremophiles,” lichens may not readily acclimate to novel climates well beyond historical norms. In a previous study (Smith et al., 2018), Evernia mesomorpha transplants in a whole-ecosystem climate change experiment showed drastic mass loss after 1 yr of warming and drying; however, the causes of this mass loss were not addressed.

Methods

We examined the causes of this warming-induced mass loss by measuring physiological, functional, and reproductive attributes of lichen transplants.

Results

Severe loss of mass and physiological function occurred above +2°C of experimental warming. Loss of algal symbionts (“bleaching”) and turnover in algal community compositions increased with temperature and were the clearest impacts of experimental warming. Enhanced CO₂ had no significant physiological or symbiont composition effects. The functional loss of algal photobionts led to significant loss of mass and specific thallus mass (STM), which in turn reduced water-holding capacity (WHC). Although algal genotypes remained detectable in thalli exposed to higher stress, within-thallus photobiont communities shifted in composition toward greater diversity.

Conclusions

The strong negative impacts of warming and/or lower humidity on Evernia mesomorpha were driven by a loss of photobiont activity. Analogous to the effects of climate change on corals, the balance of symbiont carbon metabolism in lichens is central to their resilience to changing conditions.     

Globally consistent climate sensitivity of natural disturbances across boreal and temperate forest ecosystems

Disturbance regimes are changing in forests across the world in response to global climate change. Despite the profound impacts of disturbances on ecosystem services and biodiversity, assessments of disturbances at the global scale remain scarce. Here, we analyzed natural disturbances in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems for the period 2001–2014, aiming to 1) quantify their within- and between-biome variation and 2) compare the climate sensitivity of disturbances across biomes. We studied 103 unmanaged forest landscapes with a total land area of 28.2 × 10⁶ ha, distributed across five continents. A consistent and comprehensive quantification of disturbances was derived by combining satellite-based disturbance maps with local expert knowledge of disturbance agents. We used Gaussian finite mixture models to identify clusters of landscapes with similar disturbance activity as indicated by the percent forest area disturbed as well as the size, edge density and perimeter–area-ratio of disturbed patches. The climate sensitivity of disturbances was analyzed using Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect models and a globally consistent climate dataset. Within-biome variation in natural disturbances was high in both boreal and temperate biomes, and disturbance patterns did not vary systematically with latitude or biome. The emergent clusters of disturbance activity in the boreal zone were similar to those in the temperate zone, but boreal landscapes were more likely to experience high disturbance activity than their temperate counterparts. Across both biomes high disturbance activity was particularly associated with wildfire, and was consistently linked to years with warmer and drier than average conditions. Natural disturbances are a key driver of variability in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, with high similarity in the disturbance patterns between both biomes. The universally high climate sensitivity of disturbances across boreal and temperate ecosystems indicates that future climate change could substantially increase disturbance activity.     

Taxonomy,together with ontogeny and growing conditions,drives needleleaf species' sensitivity to climate in boreal North America

Currently, there is no consensus regarding the way that changes in climate will affect boreal forest growth, where warming is occurring faster than in other biomes. Some studies suggest negative effects due to drought‐induced stresses, while others provide evidence of increased growth rates due to a longer growing season. Studies focusing on the effects of environmental conditions on growth–climate relationships are usually limited to small sampling areas that do not encompass the full range of environmental conditions; therefore, they only provide a limited understanding of the processes at play. Here, we studied how environmental conditions and ontogeny modulated growth trends and growth–climate relationships of black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) using an extensive dataset from a forest inventory network. We quantified the long‐term growth trends at the stand scale, based on analysis of the absolutely dated ring‐width measurements of 2,266 trees. We assessed the relationship between annual growth rates and seasonal climate variables and evaluated the effects of various explanatory variables on long‐term growth trends and growth–climate relationships. Both growth trends and growth–climate relationships were species‐specific and spatially heterogeneous. While the growth of jack pine barely increased during the study period, we observed a growth decline for black spruce which was more pronounced for older stands. This decline was likely due to a negative balance between direct growth gains induced by improved photosynthesis during hotter‐than‐average growing conditions in early summers and the loss of growth occurring the following year due to the indirect effects of late‐summer heat waves on accumulation of carbon reserves. For stands at the high end of our elevational gradient, frost damage during milder‐than‐average springs could act as an additional growth stressor. Competition and soil conditions also modified climate sensitivity, which suggests that effects of climate change will be highly heterogeneous across the boreal biome.     

Insect‐induced tree mortality of boreal forests in eastern Canada under a changing climate

Forest insects are major disturbances that induce tree mortality in eastern coniferous (or fir-spruce) forests in eastern North America. The spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clemens]) is the most devastating insect causing tree mortality. However, the relative importance of insect-caused mortality versus tree mortality caused by other agents and how this relationship will change with climate change is not known. Based on permanent sample plots across eastern Canada, we combined a logistic model with a negative model to estimate tree mortality. The results showed that tree mortality increased mainly due to forest insects. The mean difference in annual tree mortality between plots disturbed by insects and those without insect disturbance was 0.0680 per year (P < 0.0001, T-test), and the carbon sink loss was about 2.87t C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ larger than in natural forests. We also found that annual tree mortality increased significantly with the annual climate moisture index (CMI) and decreased significantly with annual minimum temperature (T_min), annual mean temperature (T_mean) and the number of degree days below 0°C (DD0), which was inconsistent with previous studies (Adams et al. 2009; van Mantgem et al. 2009; Allen et al. 2010). Furthermore, the results for the trends in the magnitude of forest insect outbreaks were consistent with those of climate factors for annual tree mortality. Our results demonstrate that forest insects are the dominant cause of the tree mortality in eastern Canada but that tree mortality induced by insect outbreaks will decrease in eastern Canada under warming climate.     

气候变化背景下青海省三江源地区游憩功能格局演变

在气候变化背景下,青海三江源地区游憩功能格局发生改变。综合运用PC （Pairwise Comparison）法、AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process）、指标模型、相关分析等方法,构建三江源地区游憩功能评价框架,研究1978-2012年三江源地区3类游憩功能格局的演变,以及这种演变与气候变化之间的关联。研究表明：（1）气候条件、独特景观、植被条件、地表覆被与地形条件等要素影响着三江源地区游憩功能的形成,不同要素在美感、参与机会与适宜环境3类游憩功能形成过程中发挥的作用不同,且具有非线性贡献;（2）三江源地区的美感功能较强,其次是参与机会功能,而适宜环境功能较弱;（3）气候变化在不同程度上改变了三江源地区的3类游憩功能,其中,适宜环境功能的响应最强烈,主要表现为提升;参与机会功能的响应程度最弱。该研究完善了游憩功能的理论与应用,并为气候变化背景下三江源地区旅游可持续发展决策提供参考。     

Insect defoliation modulates influence of climate on the growth of tree species in the boreal mixed forests of eastern Canada

Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity.     

Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

Most North American forests are at some stage of post‐disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short‐term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon‐dense, fire‐prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine‐learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999–2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr^?1, with most mortality occurring in medium‐sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current‐ and previous‐year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23–44% of the ring‐width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old‐growth stands in a disturbance‐prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate.     

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process‐based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO₂ fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO₂ fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO₂ fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post‐fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.     

Response of littoral vegetation on climate warming in the boreal zone; an experimental simulation

The impact of climate warming on the littoral zone of a boreal lake ecosystem was studied experimentally for three growing seasons in two artificial ponds (10×27 m) and in replicated chamber experiments. One pond was enclosed in a plastic greenhouse and another untreated pond served as a reference system. During the growing seasons temperature in the greenhouse was maintained at levels 2–3 °C higher than ambient with a computer-controlled ventilation system. One growing season prior to initiation of the experiment, a vegetated littoral zone with equal densities of water horsetail (Equisetum fluviatile) was established in both ponds. Although changes occurred in the species dominance (E. fluviatile - Alisma plantago-aquatica - Sparganium erectum spp. microcarpum - Elodea canadensis) within the three years of the study, the emergent macrophytes emerged earlier and grew better in the warmer conditions of the greenhouse pond compared with those in the reference pond. The difference in above-ground biomass throughout the growing seasons was >2 fold and after three experimental growing seasons the difference in below-ground biomass of macrophytes was 2.5-fold between the ponds. In replicated chamber experiments the biomass growth of E. fluviatile was also significantly higher in a 2–3 °C higher temperature than under ambient conditions. An ecosystem-scale induced change, characterized by a heavy growth of filamentous algae (mainly chlorophytes) was evident in the vegetated littoral zone of the greenhouse pond. A hypothesis that macrophyte rhizomes function as `phosphorus pumps' from the sediment and thus accelerate eutrophication in a warmer climate should be further studied.     

基于扩展的Budyko模型定量评估平江流域森林恢复和气候变异对季节性径流的影响

流域季节性径流变化反映了年内水资源的动态特征。在以森林为主的流域中,森林变化和气候变异被普遍认为是影响流域水文过程的两大驱动因素。因此在全球气候变化背景下,研究流域森林恢复和气候变异对流域季节性径流的影响,可为协调区域碳-水关系和制订可持续的森林经营管理策略提供参考。选择鄱阳湖流域上游的平江流域为研究对象,根据流域历史森林覆盖率变化情况,将研究期划分为参考期（1961-1985）和森林恢复期（1986-2006）,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析研究流域长时期水文气象数据是否存在显著变化趋势。同时引入月干旱指数（潜在蒸散发和有效降雨的比率）,将一年定义为能量限制季（1-6月）和水分限制季（7-12月）,结合扩展的Budyko模型定量分析平江流域森林恢复和气候变异对季节性径流的相对贡献。在本研究流域整个研究期内（1961-2006）,通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析发现,研究流域水分限制季径流呈现显著增加趋势,而能量限制季水文和气候变量变化趋势均不显著。其次,相较于参考期,流域森林恢复使能量限制季径流降低了11.71 mm/a （24.40%）,使水分限制季径流增加了12.27 mm/a （17.23%）。同时,气候变异导致能量限制季径流减少了36.28 mm/a （75.60%）,而使水分限制季径流增加了58.94 mm/a （82.77%）。上述研究结果表明,森林恢复对径流影响具有累积效应。森林恢复对季节性径流具有积极的调节作用,同时季节性径流对森林恢复的响应存在时间差,而且森林恢复对径流的影响在能量限制季和水分限制季具有相互抵消的作用,气候变异与森林恢复的影响效应类似。此外,本研究也证实,平江流域季节性径流变化主要是受气候变化主导,但森林恢复对季节性径流的贡献也不容忽视。     

Climate change affects populations of northern birds in boreal protected areas

Human land-use effects on species populations are minimized in protected areas and population changes can thus be more directly linked with changes in climate. In this study, bird population changes in 96 protected areas in Finland were compared using quantitative bird census data, between two time slices, 1981-1999 and 2000-2009, with the mean time span being 14 years. Bird species were categorized by distribution pattern and migratory strategy. Our results showed that northern bird species had declined by 21 per cent and southern species increased by 29 per cent in boreal protected areas during the study period, alongside a clear rise (0.7-0.8 °C) in mean temperatures. Distribution pattern was the main factor, with migratory strategy interacting in explaining population changes in boreal birds. Migration strategy interacted with distribution pattern so that, among northern birds, densities of both migratory and resident species declined, whereas among southern birds they both increased. The observed decline of northern species and increase in southern species are in line with the predictions of range shifts of these species groups under a warming climate, and suggest that the population dynamics of birds are already changing in natural boreal habitats in association with changing climate.     

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km²,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。