Maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome in early pregnancy.

The possibility of improving the effectiveness of antenatal screening for Down''s syndrome by measuring human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations in maternal serum during the second trimester to select women for diagnostic amniocentesis was examined. The median maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin concentration in 77 pregnancies associated with Down''s syndrome was twice the median concentration in 385 unaffected pregnancies matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the serum sample. Measuring human chorionic gonadotrophin in maternal serum was an effective screening test, giving a lower false positive rate (3%) at a 30% detection rate than that for maternal age (5%) and the two existing serum screening tests, unconjugated oestriol (7%) and alpha fetoprotein (11%). The most effective screening results were obtained with all four variables combined; at the same 30% detection rate the false positive rate declined to 0.5%. The new screening method would detect over 60% of affected pregnancies, more than double that achievable with the same amniocentesis rate in existing programmes (5%), and could reduce the number of children born with Down''s syndrome in the United Kingdom from about 900 a year to about 350 a year.     

Screening for Down's syndrome in the North East Thames region.

The suggested strategies for a screening programme for Down''s syndrome by maternal serum alpha fetoprotein concentration were examined and tested on the experience of the North East Thames Regional. Screening by maternal serum alpha fetoprotein concentration may be used to identify pregnancies at increased risk, but this is useful only in women aged over 32 whose collective risk is greater than one in 200. The absolute probability of carrying babies with Down''s syndrome for individuals in this high risk group can then be calculated and used to decide whether further diagnosis by amniocentesis is desired.     

Screening for Down's syndrome based on individual risk.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the effectiveness of biochemical screening of individual pregnancies for Down''s syndrome risk. DESIGN--Retrospective determination of risk. SETTING--Obstetric and cytogenetic services in Tayside, Scotland. SUBJECTS--3436 pregnant women who had screening for neural tube defects in the second trimester during November 1988 to March 1990 and whose pregnancies were dated by ultrasonography. Three women with pregnancies associated with Down''s syndrome reported later in 1990. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Individual risk calculated from age at estimated date of delivery; chorionic gonadotrophin and alpha fetoprotein concentrations in serum samples obtained at precisely determined gestational ages in second trimester. Results of karyotype determination and outcome of pregnancy. RESULTS--During November 1988 to March 1990 karyotypes were determined for 5% of pregnancies for reasons of maternal age and genetic history and one of the eight affected fetuses was detected. Individual risk could not be calculated for 347 pregnancies, but screening on this basis would have detected five of the cases and required screening in 194 out of 3089 (6.3%) pregnancies; all three affected pregnancies reported later in 1990 would also have been detected, giving a success rate of 73% (95% confidence interval 39% to 94%). The age distribution of women according to individual risk suggests that women over 35 would be screened effectively. CONCLUSION--Screening based on individual risk would use resources more effectively than screening based on maternal age and genetic history without affecting detection rates in older women.     

Antenatal maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome: results of a demonstration project.

OBJECTIVES--To assess the implementation of antenatal screening for Down''s syndrome in practice, using individual risk estimates based on maternal age and the three serum markers: alpha fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and human chorionic gonadotrophin. DESIGN--Demonstration project of Down''s syndrome screening; women with a risk estimate at term of 1 in 250 or greater were classified as "screen positive" and offered diagnostic amniocentesis. SETTING--Hospital and community antenatal clinics in four health districts in London. SUBJECTS--12,603 women of all ages with singleton pregnancies seen between February 1989 and the end of May 1991, with follow up of the outcome of pregnancy completed to the end of 1991. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Uptake of screening, detection rate for Down''s syndrome, false positive rate, odds of being affected given a positive result, and uptake of amniocentesis in women with positive screening results, together with the costs of the screening programme. RESULTS--The uptake of screening was 74%. The detection rate was 48% (12/25), and the false positive rate was 4.1%, consistent with results expected from previous work based on observational studies. There was a loss of detection due to the selective use of ultrasound scans among women with positive screening results. One affected pregnancy occurred among 205 reclassified as negative; this illustrated the danger of false negatives occurring in this group and lends weight to the view that if an ultrasound estimate of gestational age is used it should be carried out routinely on all women rather than selectively among those with positive results. The estimated cost of avoiding the birth of a baby with Down''s syndrome was about 38,000 pounds, substantially less than the lifetime costs of care. CONCLUSION--Antenatal maternal serum screening for Down''s syndrome is effective in practice and can be readily integrated into routine antenatal care. It is cost effective and performs better than selection for amniocentesis on the basis of maternal age alone.     

Appraisal of a new scheme for prenatal screening for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE--To appraise a new method of prenatal screening for Down''s syndrome based on maternal serum concentrations of alpha fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and human chorionic gonadotrophin combined with maternal age--the "triple test." DESIGN--Examination of the cost effectiveness of the triple test relative to screening only by maternal age over a range of population detection rates. SETTING--Leicestershire Health Authority. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Costs per affected fetus detected. RESULTS--The triple test is more cost effective than screening only by maternal age for risk cut off points for amniocentesis, resulting in a detection rate over 45%. The most efficient detection rate is around 60-65%, for which the cost per case detected is around 29,000 pounds, through screening with higher detection rates is still likely to be cost beneficial. CONCLUSIONS--Prenatal screening for Down''s syndrome based on the triple test should replace screening based only on maternal age. Individual women''s preferences should be elicited by the use of structured decision analysis in order to maximise utility and so increase the benefits of the screening programme.     

Measurement of activity of urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase as an antenatal screening test for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the value of measuring maternal urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase activity as an antenatal screening test for Down''s syndrome. DESIGN--Case-control study of blood samples collected at nine to 27 weeks of pregnancy. SETTING--Antenatal clinics in London and Oxford. PATIENTS--72 Women whose fetuses had been diagnosed by amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling as having Down''s syndrome and 156 women whose fetuses did not have the syndrome. Only singleton pregnancies were studied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Activity of urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase measured cytochemically. RESULTS--The median enzyme activity in the index patients was 1.65 times the expected median for the controls at the same duration of pregnancy (p less than 0.0001; 95% confidence interval 1.56 to 1.74). A cut off value that identified the 5% of control patients with the highest activities yielded a rate of detection of Down''s syndrome of 79% (95% confidence interval 70 to 89%). CONCLUSION--Activity of urea resistant neutrophil alkaline phosphatase is an effective maternal blood marker for Down''s syndrome. Its use in antenatal screening could lead to a substantial improvement in the detection of this disorder. Before introducing the test into routine medical practice it will have to be automated so that it can be used on a large scale and is less subjective.     

Retrospective audit of different antenatal screening policies for Down's syndrome in eight district general hospitals in one health region

ObjectiveTo compare the effectiveness of different screening policies for the antenatal detection of Down''s syndrome.DesignRetrospective six year survey.SettingMaternity units of eight districts.ParticipantsWomen who completed their pregnancies between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 1999 (155 501 deliveries).Results335 cases of Down''s syndrome were identified, 323 in continuing pregnancies or liveborn children. Of these, 171 were identified antenatally. Seven different screening policies were used, in three principal groups: serum screening offered to all mothers, maternal age with serum screening or nuchal translucency available to limited groups, and maternal age combined with anomaly scans. The districts that used serum screening detected 57%, those using maternal age plus serum or nuchal translucency screening 52%, and those using a maternal age of ⩾35 and anomaly scans detected 54%. The least successful district, which offered amniocentesis only to women aged over 37 years, detected only 31%. If amniocentesis had been offered from 35 years, as in all other districts, the detection rate would have risen to 54%. Across the region 15% (range 12-20%) of pregnant women were 35 years or more at delivery, and 58% (33-69%) of infants with Down''s syndrome were born to women in this age range.ConclusionsCurrent additional serum or nuchal translucency screening techniques for antenatal detection of Down''s syndrome are less advantageous than previously supposed. More pregnant women were aged over 35 than has been presumed in statistical models used in demonstration projects of serum screening and, as a result, the proportion of affected fetuses in this age group is much greater than predicted.

What is already known on this topic

Serum screening for Down''s syndrome has been presumed to be more effective than screening by maternal ageThere have been no controlled studies comparing serum screening with screening by maternal age, and its greater efficacy has been presumed from mathematical modelling, which assumed that only 5% of pregnant women were aged over 35 yearsThe modelling predicted that only 20-30% of cases of Down''s syndrome would arise in women aged over 35 and made no allowance for the effects of routine anomaly scanning

What this study adds

15% of pregnant women were aged over 35 years, more than double the 5-7% presumed in statistical models of screening58% of babies with Down''s syndrome were born to women aged 35 years or moreSerum screening and nuchal scanning did not achieve significantly higher antenatal detection rates of Down''s syndrome than the use of maternal age and routine anomaly scanning     

Risk assessment adjusted for gestational age in maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the relation between errors in calculation of gestational age and assessment of risk of Down''s syndrome and to analyse the implications for screening programmes. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis of dating of gestational age by menstrual history v ultrasound scan. Computer program with maternal age and concentrations of alpha fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin to calculate risk for a range of expected dates of delivery. Computer simulated prospective application of new screening programme. SETTING--Teaching hospitals in Nottingham. SUBJECTS--31,561 women with singleton pregnancies with gestational age based on routine ultrasound scan. Computer simulation of 20,000 women in three age ranges (up to 37; up to 40; all). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Distribution of error between gestational age based on ultrasound scan v menstrual history. Proportion of women in the population who require precise dating of pregnancy; proportion of women who require amniocentesis. RESULTS--With gestational age derived from ultrasound scan as reference the 95% confidence interval for gestational age by menstrual history was -27 to +9 days. A screening programme for Down''s syndrome for women up to age 40 would yield a low risk (< 1:250) for this range of days in 86.0% of cases. The 14.0% of women remaining would have one or more high risk values in their report and would thus require an ultrasound scan for precise dating of the pregnancy; 30% of these--that is, 3.7% of the screened population--would be identified as high risk and require consideration for amniocentesis. CONCLUSIONS--Screening programmes for Down''s syndrome require the facility for precise dating of pregnancy to improve the accuracy of risk assessment. This can be achieved without introducing additional scans for early dating in the whole population but by selecting only those cases (about 14%) when an error in dates is likely to affect the risk of Down''s syndrome.     

Results of first year (1989) of a national register of Down's syndrome in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the feasibility of a national register of Down''s syndrome and its effectiveness in evaluating prenatal screening for the syndrome. DESIGN--Information for the register was obtained from all eligible cytogenetic laboratories on relevant cytogenetic diagnoses, including date and place of birth or termination, maternal age, indication for karyotyping, and type of diagnostic test used. SETTING--Cytogenetic laboratories in England and Wales. SUBJECTS--All fetuses with trisomy 21 diagnosed prenatally and live births with Down''s syndrome diagnosed at birth. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Number of prenatal and postnatal diagnoses of Down''s syndrome. National and maternal age specific prevalence of Down''s syndrome. RESULTS--For 1989 there were 1060 registrations--323 prenatal diagnoses and 737 postnatal diagnoses--after exclusion of postnatally diagnosed miscarriages and stillbirths. The estimated national rate of affected births for mothers resident in England and Wales was 1.4/1000 live births, assuming no terminations of affected pregnancies and after correction for natural losses which would have occurred in the absence of termination. The corrected maternal age specific rates were close to those found in previous population based studies. The proportion of affected pregnancies diagnosed prenatally in mothers aged 35 to 39 was 44%, and for those aged 40 or more it was 71%. Abnormal findings on ultrasonography played an unexpectedly important part in initiating cytogenetic investigation (13% of the prenatal diagnoses). CONCLUSIONS--The findings establish the feasibility of a national Down''s syndrome register and its use in evaluating prenatal screening services. Together with information held by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys on congenital malformations, data from the register will permit studies of environmental variables affecting the prevalence of the syndrome.     

Prenatal screening for trisomy 18 with free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin as a marker.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the relation between maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations in pregnancies complicated by trisomy 18 and establish whether prenatal biochemical screening for this condition could be developed in a way similar to that proposed for trisomy 21. DESIGN--Serum alpha fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations in women with singleton pregnancies affected by cytogenetically confirmed trisomy 18, uncomplicated by neural tube defect or ventral wall defect, were identified from prospective trisomy 21 screening programmes. Additionally, stored maternal serum from similar pregnancies was analysed retrospectively. Analyte concentrations from singleton unaffected pregnancies were identified from a prospective screening programme as controls. Statistical parameters of the affected and unaffected populations were compiled. SETTING--Biochemical screening laboratories in Britain and the United States. SUBJECTS--52 women with singleton pregnancies complicated by trisomy 18; control population of 6661 women with unaffected singleton pregnancies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Median values of each analyte and their distribution in the affected and unaffected populations; detection rate of trisomy 18 and the false positive rate. RESULTS--Maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations were significantly lower in pregnancies complicated by trisomy 18 (median values 0.71 and 0.37 respectively). By using a multivariate risk algorithm incorporating maternal age risk of trisomy 18 and the concentration of the two biochemical markers it was predicted that 50% of trisomy 18 cases (unaffected by neural tube defect or ventral wall defect) could be detected with a 1% false positive rate. CONCLUSION--Second trimester biochemical screening for trisomy 18 could be a valuable addition to trisomy 21 screening programmes.     

Is there a familial link between Down's syndrome and neural tube defects? Population and familial survey

Objective To verify whether Down''s syndrome and neural tube defects arise more often in the same family than expected by chance.Design Population and familial survey.Setting Network of maternity hospitals in the Latin American collaborative study of congenital malformations (ECLAMC) in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela between 1982 and 2000.Probands 2421 cases of neural tube defects, 952 of hydrocephalus, and 3095 of Down''s syndrome registered from a total of 1 583 838 live births and stillbirths.Main outcome measures Observed number of cases of Down''s syndrome among siblings of probands with a neural tube defect or hydrocephalus and number expected on the basis of maternal age; observed number of cases of neural tube defects or hydrocephalus among siblings of probands with Down''s syndrome and number expected according to the prevalence in the same population.Results Five cases of Down''s syndrome occurred among 5404 pregnancies previous to a case of neural tube defect or hydrocephalus, compared with 5.13 expected after adjustment by maternal age. Twelve cases of neural tube defect or hydrocephalus occurred among 8066 pregnancies previous to a case of Down''s syndrome, compared with 17.18 expected on the basis of the birth prevalence for neural tube defects plus hydrocephalus in the same population.Conclusion No association occurred between families at risk of neural tube defects and those at risk of Down''s syndrome.     

Serum screening for Down's syndrome: experiences of obstetricians in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVES--To assess the experiences of obstetricians in England and Wales of serum screening for Down''s syndrome. DESIGN--Postal questionnaire survey. SUBJECTS--Questionnaires were sent to all practising obstetricians in England and Wales with nonacademic appointments who had not participated in an earlier (randomly sampled) survey of obstetricians'' attitudes (n = 555). Responses were received from 393 (71%), of which 351 were analysed. The data represent about one third of obstetric consultants in England and Wales. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The extent of use of serum screening for Down''s syndrome, and the problems encountered. RESULTS--Serum screening for Down''s syndrome was being offered on some basis by virtually all obstetricians in the survey. Nearly half the sample said that they did not have adequate resources for counselling all the women to whom screening was offered. Many problems were reported, which in all cases were more common than equivalent problems encountered with serum screening for neural tube defects. Over 80% (289) said that women not understanding the test was a problem. CONCLUSIONS--There is considerable confusion associated with serum screening for Down''s syndrome. The precedent of serum screening for neural tube defects does not seem to have lessened the problems experienced, rather the contrary. Many obstetricians report inadequate resources for counselling, which is consistent with the high prevalence of problems associated with women not understanding the test. There is an urgent need to consider what counselling should consist of and who should undertake it and to ensure that necessary resources are available.     

Serum screening for Down's syndrome: some women's experiences.

OBJECTIVES--To describe the experiences of a small group of women who had positive results after serum screening for Down''s syndrome. DESIGN--Semistructured telephone interviews and correspondence with women after a positive screening result (four women) negative amniocentesis results (eight), or termination of a pregnancy with a confirmed abnormality (eight). SUBJECTS--20 women who contacted Support After Termination For Abnormality about their experiences of serum screening for Down''s syndrome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Women''s knowledge and understanding of the test; staff misconceptions; communication of results; how women coped with the diagnostic process; attitudes to the test and to termination of abnormal fetuses. RESULTS--All women were made anxious by their positive screening test, no matter how they were told. The women''s experiences suggested that medical staff were unclear about the implications of screening tests and how to interpret risk. Even after receipt of negative amniocentesis results some women remained anxious. Staff did not always recognise women''s concerns while awaiting amniocentesis results. CONCLUSIONS--The way in which serum screening is being implemented does not always meet the needs of women with positive results. Some of the problems were not specific to screening for Down''s syndrome. When screening tests are introduced policies should be adopted to ensure appropriate support for participants.     

Alpha-fetoprotein and trisomy 21

In 31 affected pregnancies with Down syndrome, the median maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein value was lower than normal, 0.76 MoM, and median amniotic fluid value was quite normal, 0.98 MoM. Selecting an arbitrary cutoff-point of 0.5 MoM, 4.1 percent of normal gestations show values less than 0.5 MoM. Authors discuss problems about screening for fetal Down's syndrome by measuring maternal serum AFP levels.     

Prevalence of neural tube defects in South Australia, 1966-91: effectiveness and impact of prenatal diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE--To determine trends in total prevalence of neural tube defects in South Australia during 1966-91, the impact of prenatal diagnosis on birth prevalence, and the effectiveness of prenatal screening for neural tube defects in 1986-91. DESIGN--All births and terminations of pregnancy affected by neural tube defects and information on prenatal screening were ascertained from multiple sources including the South Australian perinatal and abortion statistics collections, birth defects register, and state maternal serum alpha fetoprotein screening programme. SETTING--Southern Australia. SUBJECTS--All 1058 births and terminations of pregnancy affected by neural tube defects in 1966-91. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Total prevalence and birth prevalence of individual and all neural tube defects. The proportion of screened cases detected prenatally. RESULTS--Total prevalence of neural tube defects during 1966-91 was 2.01/1000 births with no upward or downward trend. However, birth prevalence fell significantly (by 5.1% a year), with an 84% reduction from 2.29/1000 births in 1966 to 0.35/1000 in 1991 (relative risk = 0.16, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.34). The fall was 96% for anencephaly and 82% for spina bifida. 85% of defects, both open and closed, were detected before 28 weeks'' gestation in women screened by serum alpha fetoprotein or mid-trimester ultrasonography, or both, in 1986-91 (99.0% for anencephaly and 75.7% for spina bifida). CONCLUSIONS--While the total prevalence of neural tube defects in South Australia remained stable, prenatal diagnosis and termination of pregnancy resulted in an 84% fall in birth prevalence during 1966-91. Screening detected over four fifths of cases in 1986-91.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis for triple markers serum screening for Down's syndrome in Thai setting

BACKGROUND:

Down''s syndrome is an important congenital chromosomal disorder that can be seen around the world. The antenatal screening for this disorder is an important processing in present obstetrics.

OBJECTIVE:

Due to the concept of first do no harm, the use of noninvasive test is recommended. The triple marker screening test has been introduced for a few years and acceptable for its efficacy.

RESULT:

However, an important concern is on its cost-effectiveness. Here, the author analyze and present the cost-effectiveness of the triple markers serum screening for Down''s syndrome in Thai setting.

CONCLUSION:

According to this work, the cost per effectiveness of triple markers serum screening is slightly lower than standard amniocentesis test.     

A maternal serum screen for trisomy 18: an extension of maternal serum screening for Down syndrome.

The feasibility of extending second-trimester maternal blood screening for Down syndrome so as to include screening for trisomy 18 was examined using stored maternal serum samples collected for neural tube-defect screening. There were 12 samples from trisomy 18 pregnancies and 390 controls. The median maternal serum concentration of alpha-fetoprotein, free alpha-subunit human chorionic gonadotrophin, free beta-subunit human chorionic gonadotrophin, intact human chorionic gonadotrophin, total estriol, unconjugated estriol, estradiol, human placental lactogen, and progesterone were lowered in those pregnancies affected by trisomy 18 when compared with unaffected pregnancies matched for racial origin, maternal age, gestational age, and sample-storage duration. At an estimated odds risk of 1:400, 83.3% of affected pregnancies were detected using an algorithm which combines the maternal age-related risk with the maternal serum concentrations of unconjugated estriol, free alpha-subunit human chorionic gonadotrophin, free beta-subunit human chorionic gonadotrophin, estradiol, and human placental lactogen. The associated false-positive rate was 2.6%. At high risk odds of 1:10, the detection rate was 58.3%, with an associated false-positive rate of 0.3%. beta-Subunit human chorionic gonadotrophin and unconjugated estriol were the most powerful discriminators. It is possible to incorporate into existing Down syndrome screening programs an algorithm for detecting trisomy 18 with high sensitivity and specificity.     

Preventing the birth of infants with Down's syndrome: a cost-benefit analysis.

The costs and economical benefits of providing routine prenatal diagnosis of Down''s syndrome with termination of affected pregnancies in older pregnant women in the west of Scotland were examined. The potential economic benefits would be greater than the costs for women aged 40 and over, probably about equal to costs for those aged 35 and over, but less than costs if the service were extended to women under 35.     

Psychological consequences for parents of false negative results on prenatal screening for Down's syndrome: retrospective interview study

ObjectiveTo determine the psychological consequences for parents of children with Down''s syndrome of having received a false negative result on prenatal screening.DesignComparison of adjustment of parents who received a false negative result with that of parents not offered a test and those who declined a test.SettingParents were interviewed in their own homes.ParticipantsParents of 179 children with Down''s syndrome (mean age 4 (range 2-6) years).ResultsOverall, regardless of screening history, parents adjusted well to having a child with Down''s syndrome. Compared with mothers who declined a test, mothers in the false negative group had higher parenting stress (mean score 81.2 v 71.8, P=0.016, 95% confidence interval for the difference 1.8 to 17.0) and more negative attitudes towards their children (124.9 v 134.2, P=0.009, −16.2 to −2.4). Fathers in the false negative group had higher parenting stress test scores (77.8 v 70.0, P=0.046, 1.5 to 14.2) than fathers not offered a test. Mothers in the false negative group were more likely to blame others for the outcome than mothers who had not been offered the test (28% v 13%, P=0.032, 3% to 27%). Mothers and fathers in the false negative group were more likely to blame others for this outcome than parents who had declined a test (mothers 28% v 0%, P=0.001, 19% to 37%; fathers 27% v 0%, P=0.004, 17% to 38%). Blaming others was associated with poorer adjustment for mothers and fathers.ConclusionsA false negative result on prenatal screening seems to have a small adverse effect on parental adjustment evident two to six years after the birth of an affected child.     

Maternal Serum α-Fetoprotein Screening for the Detection of Neural Tube Defects—Report of a Pilot Program

We tested 10,715 low-risk pregnancies in a voluntary maternal serum α-fetoprotein screening program for the detection of neural tube defects in California. In all, 5.3 percent of women had one elevated serum level, 3.3 percent were referred for sonography and 1.5 percent for amniocentesis. There were 12 cases of open neural tube defects (1.1 per 1,000); all of the mothers had one elevated serum αfetoprotein level: nine (75 percent) completed the protocol and the neural tube defects were correctly identified. No normal pregnancies were terminated. The risk of an open neural tube defect occurring was about 1 in 50 after the first abnormal serum level and 1 in 15 at amniocentesis. We found significantly increased risk for fetal death and low birth weight after one elevated serum α-fetoprotein level, though the likelihood of a normal pregnancy outcome was about 80 percent. Maternal serum screening was also useful in identifying twin pregnancies and correcting underestimated gestational dates.