1985–2010年中国省际人口迁移的时空格局(英文)

Migration plays an increasing role in China's economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985–1990, 1990–1995, 1995–2000, 2000– 2005, and 2005–2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China's interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985–2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China(Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region), and they are classified into three types: mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China's economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China's interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China's future interprovincial migration.     

Spatial quality： analysis of China＇s eco-environmental 1990-2010

Over the past two decades in China, stress on the environment has increased continuously. This paper will assess the change in environmental quality over time, and its spatial variation using data from the statistical yearbooks of 31 provincial administrative regions in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010. These books provide a general assessment of the environment at the provincial level, and the three major economic regions from western to eastern China. By using the geographic information system （GIS） and SPSS, we analyzed the changing trend of China＇s eco-environment and calculated the changing trajectory in the gravity center of the eco-environmental quality. We conclude the following. （1） From 1990 to 2010, the rate of deterioration of the environment went down. We argue that the cause of this trend was neither the result as ＂the deterioration trend was under control＂ noticed by the government departments concerned, nor ＂the deterioration rate of the environment was increasingly intensified＂ suggested by many researchers. （2） Since 1990, the general environment has been worsening in China, but it was improved in some regions; however, the ecological deficit is still expanding and will last for a long time. （3） From western to eastern China, the deterioration rate of environmental quality was slowed down. The reasons include a good natural environment, a developed regional economy, and technology and finance in eastern China. （4） After extensive economic development in China, there are imbalances of population, economy, society, and the environment in the 31 provincial regions. The governments at all levels should play an important role in research and protecting the environment. In addition, it is imperative to implement positive measures such as controlling population, improving the environment, and promoting smart development to balance the socio-ecological system.     

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultura land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.     

中国流动人口地域类型——划分方法及空间分布(英文)

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China,it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China’s floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population,this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then,the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China’s 2000 census data at county level. The results show:(1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously,and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method,by using the share of a region’s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights,can effectively correct the over-or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China’s floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment,population density and socio-economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation,more than 800 mm precipitation,rather higher population densities and economic development levels.     

中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析（英文）

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades.The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominantly contributed by the floating population from rural areas,of which the spatiotemporal patterns,driving forces,and multidimensional effects are scrutinized and evaluated in this study by using the latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010.Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows.The spatial pattern of floating population has remained stable over the first decade of the new century.The top 1%cities with the largest floating population received 45.5% of all migrants in China.As the rapid development of mega-city regions,the coastal concentration areas of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole,whereas the spatial distribution of migrants within each region varied significantly.The migrant concentration area in the Yangtze River Delta was the largest and its expansion was also the most salient.However,the floating population has growingly moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in the inland regions and its gravity center has moved northward for around 110 km during the study period.The spatial pattern of floating population has been formed jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China and the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by those of market forces in the country as a whole.The attractiveness of coastal cities and counties to the floating population comes mainly from the nonagricultural employment opportunities and public services,reflecting that long-distance and long-term migrants have moved coastward not only to gain employment but also to enjoy city life.By contrast,in the central and western regions,places with a higher economic development level and at a higher administrative level are more attractive to floating populations,demonstrating that the state remains to play an important role in allocating economic resources and promoting regional development in inland China.As the main body of new urban residents,the floating population has contributed substantially to the elevation of the urbanization levels of migrant-sending and-receiving places,by 20.0% nd 49.5% respectively.Compared with extensively investigated interprovincial migrants,intra-provincial migrants have higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities and thus might become the main force of China’s urbanization in the coming decades.The internal migration has also reshaped China’s urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.     

Lake evolution and its implication for environmental changes in China during 1950–2000

Lakes in China have undergone considerable environmental changes during the past 50 years, e.g. lake level, water area changes, as did in the past several thousands years. The enhanced human activities, such as land reclamation, application of chemical fertilizer, land use and cover, irrigation and industrialization in the catchment etc., have played an important role on the recent decades＇ changes of these lakes, although constrained to a great extent by the natural impact. Comparative study on variations of lake volume （water level, depth and area） in the eastern and western lake regions of China during 1950-2000 indicated that, lake volume in the eastern region had approximately undergone a two-stage change, i.e. a dramatic decrease from the 1950s to 1970s, and a continuous increase between the 1980s and 1990s; while, in the western region, lake volume had been decreasing nearly all the time. Further studies on some typical lakes concluded that, climatic change was a primary factor for the variations of lake volume during the past 50 years, although human activities showed important effect.     

1961-2014年中国高温事件频率和强度的时空变化（英文）

In this study, we explored spatial patterns and the temporal trends in high-temperature events(HTEs) for the mainland of China during 1961–2014 based on a daily-maximum surface-air-temperature dataset of 494 stations and nonparametric trend detection methods. With three thresholds of 35°C(HTE35), 37°C(HTE37), and 40°C(HTE40), HTEs occurred in 82%, 71%, and 37% of the surveyed stations and showed an overall increasing trend in both frequency and intensity during 1961–2014. In northern and southeastern China, HTEs showed a significant increasing trend in both frequency and intensity, whilst a decreasing trend for both was observed in central China. Despite such regional heterogeneity, HTEs overwhelmingly presented three-phase characteristics in all three representative regions and throughout China; the phases are 1961–1980, 1980–1990, and 1990–2014. Both frequency and intensity of HTEs have strongly increased during 1990–2014 at 54.86%, 48.38%, and 23.28% of the investigated stations for HTE35, HTE37 and HTE40, respectively. These findings implied that HTEs adaptation should be paid further attention in the future over China because the wide spread distribution of HTEs and their increasing trends in both frequency and intensity during recent decades might pose challenges to the sustainability of human society and the ecosystem.     

China＇s economic development stage and its spatiotemporal evolution： A prefectural-level analysis

As important mechanisms of regional strategy and policy,prefecture-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China’s economy.However,little research has grasped the essence of the economic development stage and the spatio-temporal evolution process at the prefecture level;this may lead to biased policies and their ineffective implementations.Based on Chenery’s economic development theory,this paper identifies China’s economic development stages at both national and prefectural levels.Both the Global Moran I index and the Getis-Ord Gi* index are employed to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of China’s economic development from 1990 to 2010.Major conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) China’s economic development is generally in the state of agglomeration.It entered the Primary Production Stage in 1990,and the Middle Industrialized Stage in 2010,with a ’balanced-unbalanced-gradually rebalanced’ pattern in the process.(2) China’s rapid economic growth experienced a spatial shift from the coastal areas to the the inland areas.Most advanced cities in mid-western China can be roughly categorized into regional hub cities and resource-dependent cities.(3) Hot spots in China’s economy moved northward and westward.The interactions between cities and prefectures became weaker in Eastern China,while cities and prefectures in Central and Western China were still at the stage of individual development,with limited effect on the surrounding cities.(4) While the overall growth rate of China’s economy has gradually slowed down during the past two decades,the growth rate of cities and prefectures in Central and Western China was much faster than those in coastal areas.(5) Areas rich in resources,such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia,have become the new hot spots of economic growth in recent years.For these regions,however,more attention needs to be paid to their unbalanced industrial structures and the lagging social development against the backdrop of the rapid economic growth,driven predominantly by the exploitation of resources.     

The provincial pattern of the relationship between urbanization and economic develop-ment in China简

Understanding the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic de- velopment on a provincial scale is of profound theoretical and practical significance. Based on data from 124 countries or regions throughout the world and 31 provinces or autonomous regions in China, applying improved methods using the quadrant map approach, this paper analyzed the spatial pattern of the relationship between China＇s urbanization and economic development level. The study identified the following results. （1） The 31 province-level re- gions fall into six categories： only one region is in the category of sharp over-urbanization, 3 regions are in medium over-urbanization, 11 slight over-urbanization, 8 basic coordination, one medium under-urbanization, and seven slight under-urbanization. （2） There are signifi- cant regional differences on a provincial scale in the relationships between urbanization and the level of economic development. （3） The provincial pattern of urbanization and economic development is significantly different between east and west. The eastern coastal areas are mainly over-urbanized, while the central and western regions are mainly under-urbanized. （4） The relationship between urbanization and the level of economic development is similar to the Matthew effect. Hence, two important insights are proposed. First, the phenomenon of over-urbanization in some developed regions should be viewed with some concern and vigi- lance. Second, urbanization needs to be speeded up moderately in the central and western regions.     

Spatial distributions and interannual variations of snow cover over China in the last 40 years

By using the observational snow data of more than 700 weather stations,the interannual temporal and spatial characteristics of seasonal snow cover in China were analyzed.The results show that northern Xinjiang,northeastern China-Inner Mongolia,and the southwestern and southern portions of Tibetan Plateau are three regions in China with high seasonal snow cover and also an interannual anomaly of snow cover.According to the trend of both the snow depth and snow cover days,there are three changing patterns for the seasonal snow cover:The first type is that both snow depth and snow cover days simultaneously increase or decrease;this includes northern Xinjiang,middle and eastern Inner Mongolia,and so on.The second is that snow depth increases but snow cover days decrease;this type mainly locates in the eastern parts of the northeastern plain of China and the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The last type is that snow depth decreases but snow cover days increase at the same time such as that in middle parts of Tibetan Plateau.Snow cover in China appears to have been having a slow increasing trend during the last 40 years.On the decadal scale,snow depth and snow cover days slightly increased in the 1960s and then decreased in the 1970s;they again turn to increasing in the 1980s and persist into 1990s.     

1990-2009年珠三角县域城市潜力的时空关联分析(英文)

According to the highway data and some socioeconomic data of 1990, 1994, 2000, 2005 and 2009 of county units in the Pearl River Delta, this paper measured urban integrated power of different counties in different years by factor analysis, and estimated each county’s potential in each year by means of expanded potential model. Based on that, the spatio-temporal association patterns and evolution of county potential were analyzed using spatio-temporal autocorrelation methods, and the validity of spatio-temporal association patterns was verified by comparing with spatial association patterns and cross-correlation function. The main results are shown as follows:(1) The global spatio-temporal association of county potential showed a positive effect during the study period. But this positive effect was not strong, and it had been slowly strengthened during 1994–2005 and decayed during 2005–2009. The local spatio-temporal association characteristics of most counties’ potential kept relatively stable and focused on a positive autocorrelation, however, there were obvious transformations in some counties among four types of local spatio-temporal association(i.e., HH, LL, HL and LH).(2) The distribution difference and its change of local spatio-temporal association types of county potential were obvious. Spatio-temporal HH type units were located in the central zone and Shenzhen-Dongguan region of the eastern zone, but the central spatio-temporal HH area shrunk to the Guangzhou-Foshan core metropolitan region only after 2000; the spatio-temporal LL area in the western zone kept relatively stable with a surface-shaped continuous distribution pattern, new LL type units emerged in the south-central zone since 2005, the eastern LL area expanded during 1994–2000, but then gradually shrunk and scattered at the eastern edge in 2009; the spatio-temporal HL and LH areas varied significantly.(3) The local spatio-temporal association patterns of county potential among the three zones presented significant disparity, and obvious difference between the eastern and central zones tended to decrease, whereas that between the western zone and the central and eastern zones further expanded.(4) Spatio-temporal autocorrelation methods can efficiently mine the spatio-temporal association patterns of county potential, and can better reveal the complicated spatio-temporal interaction between counties than ESDA methods.     

中国能源生态效率的空间格局与空间效应（英文）

Energy eco-efficiency is a concept integrating ecological and economic benefits arising from energy utilization and serves as a measure of efficiency in the energy–environment–economy system. Using the slacks-based measure(SBM) model considering undesirable output, this study first measures the energy eco-efficiency of provinces in China from 1997 to 2012. It then analyzes the spatial distribution and evolution of energy eco-efficiency from three aspects: scale, intensity, and grain of spatial patterns. Finally, it examines the spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of energy eco-efficiency in different provinces by means of a spatial econometric model. The following conclusions are drawn:(1) The overall energy eco-efficiency is relatively low in China, with energy-inefficient regions accounting for about 40%. Guangdong, Hainan and Fujian provinces enjoy the highest energy eco-efficiency, while Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang are representative regions with low efficiency. Thus, the pattern of evolution of China's overall energy eco-efficiency is U-shaped. Among local regions, four main patterns of evolution are found: increasing, fluctuating, mutating, and leveling.(2) At the provincial level, China's energy eco-efficiency features significant spatial agglomeration both globally and locally. High–high agglomeration occurs mainly in the eastern and southern coastal regions and low–low agglomeration in the northwestern region and the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Changes in spatial patterns have occurred mainly in areas with high–low and low–high agglomeration, with the most remarkable change taking place in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.(3) There exist significant spatial effects of energy eco-efficiency among provinces in China. For the energy eco-efficiency of a given region, spatial spillovers from adjacent regions outweigh the influence of errors in adjacent regions. Industrial structure has the greatest influence on energy eco-efficiency.     

Time-scale effects in human-nature interactions,regionally and globally

Spatial-temporal scales effects are general among human-nature interactions.However, the laws and mechanisms of the interaction between humans and the environment at different spatial-temporal scales remain to be identified. The Hexi Corridor in Northwest China is located in the eastern section of the Silk Road and is one of the world’s first long-distance cultural exchange centers. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of the Hexi Corridor, including changes in environments, population, wars,...     

Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s简

Land-use/land-cover changes （LUCCs） have links to both human and nature inter- actions. China＇s Land-Use/cover Datasets （CLUDs） were updated regularly at 5-year inter- vals from the late 1980s to 2010, with standard procedures based on Landsat TM／ETM＋ im- ages. A land-use dynamic regionalization method was proposed to analyze major land-use conversions. The spatiotemporal characteristics, differences, and causes of land-use changes at a national scale were then examined. The main findings are summarized as fol- lows. Land-use changes （LUCs） across China indicated a significant variation in spatial and temporal characteristics in the last 20 years （1990-2010）. The area of cropland change de- creased in the south and increased in the north, but the total area remained almost un- changed. The reclaimed cropland was shifted from the northeast to the northwest. The built-up lands expanded rapidly, were mainly distributed in the east, and gradually spread out to central and western China. Woodland decreased first, and then increased, but desert area was the opposite. Grassland continued decreasing. Different spatial patterns of LUC in China were found between the late 20th century and the early 21st century. The original 13 LUC zones were replaced by 15 units with changes of boundaries in some zones. The main spatial characteristics of these changes included （1） an accelerated expansion of built-up land in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, the southeastern coastal areas, the midstream area of the Yangtze River, and the Sichuan Basin; （2） shifted land reclamation in the north from northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia to the oasis agricultural areas in northwest China; （3） continuous transformation from rain-fed farmlands in northeast China to paddy fields; and （4） effective- ness of the ＂Grain for Green＂ project in the southern agricultural-pastoral ecotones of Inner Mongolia, the Loess Plateau, and southwestern mountainous areas. In the last two decades, although climate change in the north affected the change in cropland, policy regulation and economic driving forces were still the primary causes of LUC across China. During the first decade of the 21st century, the anthropogenic factors that drove variations in land-use pat- terns have shifted the emphasis from one-way land development to both development and conservation. The ＂dynamic regionalization method＂ was used to analyze changes in the spatial patterns of zoning boundaries, the internal characteristics of zones, and the growth and decrease of units. The results revealed ＂the pattern of the change process,＂ namely the process of LUC and regional differences in characteristics at different stages. The growth and decrease of zones during this dynamic LUC zoning, variations in unit boundaries, and the characteristics of change intensities between the former and latter decades were examined. The patterns of alternative transformation between the ＂pattern＂ and ＂process＂ of land use and the causes for changes in different types and different regions of land use were explored.     

Exploitation of mineral resource and its influence on regional development and urban evolution in Xinjiang,China

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between mineral resources exploitation and economic and urban development in Xinjiang. The article summarizes the mineral resource exploitation development of Xinjiang especially over the last 50 years, and investigates energy industries and their driving forces, directions, and economic impact on the oasis urban system evolution in Xinjiang. Methods like correlation analysis, location quotient and elastic coefficient are employed in the presentation and discussion, and also field reconnaissance surveys, interviews and secondary sources are used. The result shows Xinjiang＇s economic growth is promoted by the contributions of the increasing mineral resource industry which promotes economic development by accelerating infrastructure construction, developing industry and raising revenue and fixed investment. Mineral exploitation in recent years had profound impacts on urban development as a growth engine. The evolution of urban system has a close relationship with resource exploitation, and statistical results provide strong evidence to support the argument that mineral resource exploitation has promoted the growth of built-up areas and its expansion patterns in Xinjiang, especially regions along the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.     

书评——《城市对称分布与中国城市化趋势》(英文)

YE Danian, HE Wei, LI Zhe, XU Wendong Anhui Education Press,Hefei,2011,x+260 pp,ISBN 978 7 5336 5737 6(hardback),CHY 58.00 As products of urbanization, cities are focal points for social and economic interaction. Though China is an ancient civilization, only recently has the urban population surpassed that in rural areas. During the last three decades, unprecedented urbanization has reshaped China’s geographical, social, economic and cultural landscapes. Among the social-economic transformations having occurred in China in recent history, urbanization is probably the most impressive and dynamic process; it has changed daily life of Chinese population and profoundly impacted the regional and global economy.     

中国城镇化水平、经济增长和二氧化碳排放的面板协整和因果分析（英文）

Elucidating the complex mechanism between urbanization,economic growth,carbon dioxide emissions is fundamental necessary to inform effective strategies on energy saving and emission reduction in China. Based on a balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China over the period 1997–2010,this study empirically examines the relationships among urbanization,economic growth and carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions at the national and regional levels using panel cointegration and vector error correction model and Granger causality tests. Results showed that urbanization,economic growth and CO2 emissions are integrated of order one. Urbanization contributes to economic growth,both of which increase CO2 emissions in China and its eastern,central and western regions. The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in the western region was larger than that in the eastern and central regions. But economic growth had a larger impact on CO2 emissions in the eastern region than that in the central and western regions. Panel causality analysis revealed a bidirectional long-run causal relationship among urbanization,economic growth and CO2 emissions,indicating that in the long run,urbanization does have a causal effect on economic growth in China,both of which have causal effect on CO2 emissions. At the regional level,we also found a bidirectional long-run causality between land urbanization and economic growth in eastern and central China. These results demonstrated that it might be difficult for China to pursue carbon emissions reduction policy and to control urban expansion without impeding economic growth in the long run. In the short-run,we observed a unidirectional causation running from land urbanization to CO2 emissions and from economic growth to CO2 emissions in the eastern and central regions. Further investigations revealed an inverted N-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China,not supporting the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC) hypothesis. Our empirical findings have an important reference value for policy-makers in formulating effective energy saving and emission reduction strategies for China.     

Change analysis of rice area and production in China during the past three decades

Rice＇s spatial-temporal distributions, which are critical for agricultural, environ- mental and food security research, are affected by natural conditions as well as socio-eco- nomic developments. Based on multi-source data, an effective model named the Spatial Production Allocation Model （SPAM） which integrates arable land distribution, administrative unit statistics of crop data, agricultural irrigation data and crop suitability data, was used to get a series of spatial distributions of rice area and production with 10-km pixels at a national scale -it was applied from the early 1980s onwards and used to analyze the pattern of spatial and temporal changes. The results show that significant changes occurred in rice in China during 1980-2010. Overall, more than 50% of the rice area decreased, while nearly 70% of rice production increased in the change region during 1980-2010. Spatially, most of the increased area and production were in Northeast China, especially, in Jilin and Heilongjiang; most of the decreased area and production were located in Southeast China, especially, in regions of rapidly urbanization in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Thus, the centroid of rice area was moved northeast approximately 230 km since 1980, and rice production about 320 km, which means rice production moved northeastward faster than rice area because of the significant rice yield increase in Northeast China. The results also show that rice area change had a decisive impact on rice production change. About 54.5% of the increase in rice pro- duction is due to the expansion of sown area, while around 83.2% of the decrease in rice production is due to contraction of rice area. This implies that rice production increase may be due to area expansion and other non-area factors, but reduced rice production could largely be attributed to rice area decrease.     

中国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析(英文)

Tropical cyclone,a high energy destructive meteorological system with heavy rainfall and gale triggered massive landslides and windstorms,poses a significant threat to coastal areas.In this paper we have developed a Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index (TCPI) based on the air mass trajectories,disaster information,intensity,duration,and frequency of tropical cyclones.We analyzed the spatial pattern and interannual variation of the TCPI over the period 1949-2009,and taking the Super Typhoon Saomai as an example have examined the relationship between the TCPI and direct economic losses,total rainfall,and maximum wind speed.The results reveal that China’s TCPI appears to be a weak decreasing trend over the period,which is not significant overall,but significant in some periods.Over the past 20 years,the TCPI decreased in the southern China coastal provinces of Hainan,Guangdong and Guangxi,while it increased in the southeastern coastal provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian and Taiwan.The highest values of TCPI are mainly observed in Taiwan,Hainan,the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian and Zhejiang’s southern coast.The TCPI has a good correlation (P=0.01) with direct economic loss,rainfall,and maximum wind speed.     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.