The Nile delta-Alexandria coast: vulnerability to sea-level rise,consequences and adaptation

Like many delta systems, the coastal zoneof the Nile delta has been designated as avulnerable zone to a rising sea level as aconsequence of expected climate changescombined with geological and human factors.In view of the understanding of thesefactors, a degree of vulnerabilityanalysis has been carried out to betterlocate which sectors need to be assessedand adapted to possible sea level rise(SLR) for the Nile delta-Alexandria region of Egypt.Results reveal that not all of the coastalzones of the Nile delta are vulnerable toaccelerated sea-level rise at the samelevel. Based on multiple criteria the Niledelta-Alexandria coast can be categorizedinto vulnerable (30%), invulnerable (55%)and artificially protected coastalstretches (15%). These criteria include:local subsidence or uplifting, relativesea-level rise (RSLR), land topography,width of lagoon barriers, beach-face slope,high-elevated features such as dunes andridges, eroding and accreting coastlinesand protection works.Moreover, this study evaluates thelong-term relative sea-level rise andsubsidence rates along the Nile delta andAlexandria coasts. Statistical analysis oflong-term tide gauge data recorded atAlexandria, Burullus and Port Said yieldsvalues of 1.6, 1.0 and 2.2 mm/yr,respectively. These values of relativesea-level rise and long-term subsidencerate obtained from age-dated sediment coresections are inconsistent: long-termsubsidence appears to be larger (maximum of7 mm/ yr). This discrepancy might beexplained if the subsidence is episodic,and occurs rather abruptly during majorearthquakes that occur every few hundredyears associated with fault trend lines.Rising sea levels could have significantlongterm impacts on the Nile delta,including the distribution of ground watersalinity and erosion of the narrow andlow-lying barriers of the Burullus andManzala lagoons. Adaptive measures alongthe study area particularly those relatedto coastal protective structures are alsoevaluated.     

Risks of sea level rise to disadvantaged communities in the United States

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) pose risks to coastal communities around the world, but societal understanding of the distributional and equity implications of SLR impacts and adaptation actions remains limited. Here, we apply a new analytic tool to identify geographic areas in the contiguous United States that may be more likely to experience disproportionate impacts of SLR, and to determine if and where socially vulnerable populations would bear disproportionate costs of adaptation. We use the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to identify socially vulnerable coastal communities, and combine this with output from a SLR coastal property model that evaluates threats of inundation and the economic efficiency of adaptation approaches to respond to those threats. Results show that under the mid-SLR scenario (66.9 cm by 2100), approximately 1,630,000 people are potentially affected by SLR. Of these, 332,000 (～20%) are among the most socially vulnerable. The analysis also finds that areas of higher social vulnerability are much more likely to be abandoned than protected in response to SLR. This finding is particularly true in the Gulf region of the United States, where over 99% of the most socially vulnerable people live in areas unlikely to be protected from inundation, in stark contrast to the least socially vulnerable group, where only 8% live in areas unlikely to be protected. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the equity and environmental justice implications of SLR in climate change policy analysis and coastal adaptation planning.     

Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt

Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.     

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic) assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km² if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km² under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km² under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km², if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario, if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km². Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km².A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments under the likely effects of SLR are recommended.     

Need for adaptation strategy against global sea level rise: an example from Saudi coast of Arabian gulf

This paper reports sea level rise (SLR) scenarios causing land loss, environmental degradation and destruction of infrastructure in the Saudi coast of the Arabian Gulf. Human development structures such as, sea ports, desalination plants, industrial establishments, commercial buildings, fish farms etc. will be impacted, leading to great economic losses. A systematic analysis on the current environmental setting of east coast of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) versus the existing infrastructure assets indicates that a 1?m sea level rise in Arabian Gulf affects approximately 650?km² land area, along the Saudi coastline of ~1,800?km in 1:50,000 scale. Three simulation scenarios were created with respect to 1?m, 2?m and 3?m rises from the present mean sea level and its impacts were assessed. Maps depicting major infrastructure assets, ecologically sensitive elements, historical locations, anthropogenic zones, and Environmental Sensitivity Indices (ESI) were used for overlaying the sea level change map, in a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. In general, the Jubail Marine Park area will have serious impact due to SLR. The inundation of low?Clying lands will affect the mangroves species of Dawhat Ad Dafi, coral reefs, coastal salt marshes, groundwater aquifers, and fish stocks. The risk of inundation on the Abu Ali Island, given their status as marine sanctuary of international importance, is particularly high. As an adaptation strategy, it is proposed that the KSA should implement Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan (ICZMP) for the Arabian Gulf coast without further delay for the protection of its vulnerable resources and for sustainable development.     

尼罗河三角洲与长江三角洲重金属污染对比研究

通过对比研究尼罗河三角洲与长江三角洲重金属污染特征,结果发现前者多数重金属含量高于后者,且尼罗河三角洲富集指数EF值约为长江三角洲3倍。此外,两者重金属分布格局差异明显,尼罗河三角洲呈东西高、中间低的"马鞍形"分布。自阿斯旺建坝后,干旱气候条件和人类活动使得尼罗河三角洲泻湖演变为重金属沉积中心。与之相反,长江三角洲重金属含量向海沿程降低,季风降水和巨量水沙对污染物扩散能力较强,污染水平较低。与世界其他地区河口相比,尼罗河三角洲重金属污染属于中等水平,而长江三角洲属于中下水平。对比研究表明两三角洲重金属物污染分布规律差异与其独特的流域自然条件和人类活动方式有密切关系。     

Assessing inundation damage and timing of adaptation: sea level rise and the complexities of land use in coastal communities

Climate change exacerbates the public policy challenges already present in managing contested landscapes. Coastal managers deal with multiple stressors and multiple stakeholders and have a difficult challenge in managing competing land use as sea level rise (SLR) reduces the amount of prized coastal land. The information needed to inform on the type and timing of adaptation strategies reflects a major gap in the planning and implementation of adaptation options. We present here an inundation risk assessment framework (IRAF) for estimating the impacts of increasing SLR inundation extent probabilities and the cost of inundation damage through time for public and private infrastructure assets. The framework integrates the cost of damage across asset classes in order to help decision-makers judge the economic utility of various adaptation options and the timing of implementation. We provide an example of this methodology using a case study from Southeast Australia in a low lying estuarine region with an increasingly urbanized population. The methodology shows a clear pathway in which to integrate multiple asset classes into a temporally based damage cost analysis. Such methodology will help address the timing of adaptation and allow for the development of trigger points to guide adaptation planning. Thus, the framework developed in this paper can be easily transferred to other regions and countries facing the same types of SLR risks. As SLR and inundation encroachment continue to occur, decisions regarding protection, repair, and retreat will be made depending on the resources available to local governments. The challenge is to balance decision making with both the timing of implementation as well as costs (both of action and inaction). By understanding the areas of land lost to inundation and the cost of inaction through time, local governments can assess the rationality of adaptation at points in the present and future.     

The perceived psychological distance of climate change impacts and its influence on support for adaptation policy

Factors influencing support for climate mitigation policy in the United States are well researched, however, research regarding individuals’ support for climate adaptation policy is relatively sparse. This study explores how an individual’s perception of climate change impacts may influence their support for adaptation actions. Results of a survey of the U.S. public (n = 653) indicates that individuals who believe climate change impacts are unlikely to happen or will primarily affect other people in other places are less likely to be concerned about climate change impacts and less likely to support climate adaptation. However, an individual’s support for climate change adaptation measures is not influenced by their perception of when climate change impacts will occur even when taking into account concern for climate impacts. Critical for policy-makers, a belief that climate adaptation measures will not be effective attenuates the relationship between psychological distance, concern for climate change impacts, and adaptation policy measures. Our results indicate that to effectively communicate about climate change, policy-makers should emphasize that: (i) climate change impacts are occurring, (ii) that their constituents are being affected now, or will be in the future, and (iii) communicate that adaptation measures can be effective in addressing risks associated with climate change impacts.     

Impacts of Global Climate Change on Mediterranean Agrigulture: Current Methodologies and Future Directions. An Introductory Essay

Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.     

阿斯旺建坝后尼罗河三角洲泻湖重金属污染特征及其环境意义

本研究以尼罗河三角洲泻湖(Manzala、Burullus、Edku)为典型区域,利用6根浅孔并选取Al、Cd、Cr、Fe、Mn、Pb、Cu、Zn等主要重金属元素,探讨了自然和人类活动(建坝)共同作用下河口泻湖湿地环境重金属时空分布及污染来源。研究结果表明,1964年阿斯旺建坝和海岸保护工程实施后,泻湖地区逐渐演变为稳定而封闭的沉积环境。钻孔上层(10~15 cm)沉积物重金属富集现象反映了建坝后三角洲泻湖环境污染加重。重金属空间分布表现为平原东西部Manzala和Edku湖污染较重,而中部的Burullus湖污染较轻。相关性分析和富集系数(EF)变化进一步揭示Manzala湖特征污染元素为Pb、Cu、Zn和Cd,污染源主要来自开罗石油化工等产业废水;Burullus湖特征污染元素为Mn和Pb,应该与湖区附近农业废水的大量排放有关;Edku湖特征污染元素则为Mn、Pb和Zn,其重金属可能来自邻近的Abu-Qir湾带来的亚历山大工业废水。     

More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change

Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly threaten the world's coastlines, managers at local, regional, state, and federal levels will need to plan and implement adaptation measures to cope with these impacts in order to continue to protect the economic, social, and environmental security of the state and of local communities.In this paper, we explore the information needs of California coastal managers as they begin confronting the growing risks from climate change. Through this case study we examine the challenges managers face presently, what information they use to perform their responsibilities, what additional information and other knowledge resources they may need to begin planning for climate change. We place our study into the broader context of the study of how science can best support policy-makers and resource managers as they begin to plan and prepare for adaptation to climate change.Based on extensive interview and survey research in the state, we find that managers prefer certain types of information and information sources and would benefit from various learning opportunities (in addition to that information) to make better use of available global change information. Coastal managers are concerned about climate change and willing to address it in their work, but require financial and technical assistance from other agencies at the state and federal level to do so. The study illustrates the strong need for boundary organizations to serve various intermediary functions between science and practice, especially in the context of adaptation to global climate change impacts.     

The crestline approach for assessing the development of coastal flooding due to sea level rise

One of the most pressing issues in studying the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) triggered by climate change is understanding the development of the hazard of permanent coastal flooding. The issue persists because available approaches are based on the mapping of the inundated area where they explore the coastal flooding development across terrain elevations, that is—horizontally. In addition, they overlook the existing structures along or in the vicinity of the coastline, which have inherent hydraulic properties that may affect the development of such flooding. The purpose of this study is to develop a novel approach for assessing the development of permanent coastal flooding due to SLR at cross sections along the coastline, that is—vertically, in full consideration of underlying hydraulic properties of the existing coastline. An approach was developed using analogy of existing coastline to a contiguous weir. This approach was named crestline approach and was developed as a four step GIS-based approach that could be applied at any coastal zone. An example application on one of the top ranked cities in the world prone to the SLR threat has been provided to illustrate exactly how to apply the crestline approach. The novelty of this approach lies in its ability to accurately identify the specific locations where coastal flooding will initiate, in full consideration of existing natural/manmade coastal structures. This study is significant for the opportunities it provides to analysts and decision makers to better understand the development of permanent coastal flooding.     

Accommodation of climate change in coastal areas of cameroon: selection of household-level protection options

Coastal areas are threatened under climate change because of factors related to vulnerability of society and sensitivity of the environment. Protection and adaptation may mitigate the adverse consequences. This research reviews and assesses the options of protection by homeowners in the coastal zone in the southwest region of Cameroon. The coastal zone of Cameroon is studied because of the observed deleterious effect of recent extreme climatic events. From a research sample of 400 households, the house types and protection strategies - which are of two main types: reactive measures and preventive measures taken to offset adverse effects on property, are studied. A multinomial logit function reveals that income, education, age and gender are significant factors determining household’s probability on the selection of protection measures. The study concludes that there are strong implications for adaptation to future climate change, and the ability of homeowners to extensively respond will have to be reinforced not only by communal and public works projects but also through an active government policy to promote climate change adaptation.     

Fostering coastal resilience to climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh,Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay: a cross-country comparison

This paper describes a comparative study of four different cases on vulnerability, hazards and adaptive capacity to climate threats in coastal areas and communities in four developing countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, Cameroon and Uruguay. Coastal areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR), storm surges and flooding due to their (i) exposure, (ii) concentration of settlements, many of which occupied by less advantaged groups and (iii) the concentration of assets and services seen in these areas. The objective of the paper is twofold: (i) to evaluate current evidence of coastal vulnerability and adaptive capacity and (ii) to compare adaptation strategies being implemented in a sample of developing countries, focusing on successful ones. The followed approach for the case evaluation is based on (i) documenting observed threats and damages, (ii) using indicators of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and adaptive capacity status and (iii) selecting examples of successful responses. Major conclusions based on cross-case comparison are (a) the studied countries show different vulnerability, adaptive capacity and implementation of responses, (b) innovative community-based (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and (c) early warning systems are key approaches and tools to foster climate resilience. A recommendation to foster the resilience of coastal communities and services is that efforts in innovative adaptation strategies to sea-level rise should be intensified and integrated with climate risk management within the national adaption plans (NAPAs) in order to reduce the impacts of hazards.     

全球变化背景下可持续的滨海旅游资源开发与管理

滨海旅游是最传统的、主要的旅游形式,也是现代旅游增长最快的领域,在国内外均具有举足轻重的地位。全球变化很可能是由人类活动引起,并且影响着旅游业的发展。旅游业通过使用交通运输系统尤其是航空旅行、旅游目的地住宿餐饮等活动排放大量温室气体,对全球变化做出贡献。可持续滨海旅游以可持续的资源开发和管理为基础,在全球变化背景下,要达到这一目标,需要在滨海旅游模式与产品类型转变、旅游资源利用方式转变、利益相关者协作等方面对滨海旅游资源进行优化开发和有效管理:以绿色思维指导低碳旅游模式,发展生态旅游和替代性旅游等新型产品;提倡降碳减排、发展碳补偿和碳经济、制定碳排放标准、鼓励新型节油节能科技应用;鼓励社区参与,平衡利益相关者的收益和兴趣,尤其是探察当地社区居民、旅游者和政府工作人员对全球变化的看法、态度、责任感和共识。这些措施将在规划-管理-监督-评估动态模型中得到优化。     

海平面上升和土地利用驱动下红树林生境脆弱性研究

为了探索海平面上升(SLR)和土地利用导致的红树林生境潜在变化,本文以我国红树林分布最集中的雷州半岛为研究区域,基于SLAMM模型和景观生态模型建立了红树林生境脆弱性指数,设置4个SLR-土地利用组合情景(SLR4.5-土地开发利用、SLR4.5-土地自然转换、SLR8.5-土地开发利用、SLR8.5-土地自然转换),预测2050年雷州半岛红树林的生境变化和脆弱程度,并提出应对环境变化的管理策略.结果表明,(1)SLR和土地利用双重压力的叠加将造成红树林生境的显著退化,预测生境面积将减少16.59%～25.61%,减少地点集中在铁山港、安铺港、湛江港、雷州湾和流沙湾沿岸.(2)在土地自然转换情景下,尽管仍应对着海平面上升的压力,红树林潜在生境面积可增加44.66%～67.74%,增加的区域集中在岸线往内陆方向和沿水系向内陆延伸的两岸,但新增生境面临着破碎化程度高的问题.(3)在所有情景下均呈现红树林迁出现有保护区的趋势,保护区内红树林面积由5949.8hm²下降至4732.1～5192.9hm².(4)高脆弱区主要分布在雷州湾、湛江港近岸和流...     

Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policies.     

基于ICZM的海湾水环境污染管理和控制对策

海湾作为海水、水盆、邻近陆域及其空间共同组成的综合自然体,处于陆地和海洋之交的纽带部位,在整个海岸带的开发利用中占有特别重要的地位,成为海岸带综合管理(ICZM)的焦点,我国对海岸带管理与规划进行了广泛的研究和实践,但目前仍然存在着突出问题,特别是在海湾水环境污染管理和控制方面,尤为严重.本文提出在分析海湾水环境容量和人海污染物总量控制的基础上,利用点源和非点源的污染控制技术进行海湾水环境污染控制和管理;从企业清洁生产、非点源污染控制的最佳管理措施(BMPs)和生态产业布局等方面进行针对性的优化调控;基于ICZM的角度,从法律法规、经济手段、行政监督、规划和区划、综合整治及公众参与等方面的提出海湾水环境污染管理对策,为海湾水环境的可持续发展和海岸带综合管理提供科学依据和技术支撑.     

海岸带环境综合管理问题探讨

目前,中国海岸带环境管理中存在的法律、组织协调和运行机制等现有主要问题;福建省海岸带环境管理中存在的主要问题,提出了调整海洋环境功能区划、建立海洋污染事故快速反应体系与应急联动处置机制、加快城市排海污水处理能力的规划与建设、规范海水养殖功能区的管理、加强污染物排海总量控制技术与政策研究、实施海湾区域开发规划环境影响评价、实施海陆一体化的海岸带环境综合管理等福建省海岸带环境综合管理的调控措施.     

Towards an inter-disciplinary research agenda on climate change, water and security in Southern Europe and neighboring countries

The Mediterranean and neighboring countries are already experiencing a broad range of natural and man-made threats to water security. According to climate projections, the region is at risk due to its pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. Such changes are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on key strategic sectors of regional economies. Related developments have an increased capacity to exacerbate tensions, and even intra- and inter-state conflict among social, political, ecological and economic actors. Thus, effective adaptation and prevention policy measures call for multi-disciplinary analysis and action.This review paper presents the current state-of-the-art on research related to climate change impacts upon water resources and security from an ecological, economic and social angle. It provides perspectives for current and upcoming research needs and describes the challenges and potential of integrating and clustering multi-disciplinary research interests in complex and interwoven human-environment systems and its contribution to the upcoming 5th assessment report of the IPCC.