中国风能发展战略研究

2008年2月中国工程院启动中国能源中长期(2030、2050)发展战略研究重大咨询项目,项目设置6个课题,根据可再生能源课题的安排,风能组的工作是在"中国可再生能源发展战略研究"的基础上,进一步摸清风能资源家底,从战略的角度对风能市场、产业、技术和应用进行综合分析,提出我国风能中长期发展的战略目标、技术路线、发展重点和政策措施。文章简要介绍了研究的结果。     

我国能源技术革命体系战略研究

为了推进能源技术革命,中国工程院于2015年启动了"我国能源技术革命体系战略研究"重大咨询项目。本文从核能、风能、太阳能、储能、油气、煤炭、水能、生物质能、智能电网与能源网融合九大能源技术领域开展咨询调查研究,系统分析了各领域的能源技术现状,明确提出了构建以可再生能源为主体,终端能源以电能为主,多能多网融合互补的技术体系,制定了前瞻性技术(2020)、创新性技术(2030)和颠覆性技术(2050)三阶段发展的能源技术路线,最后提出推动能源技术革命的战略建议,为我国研究制订能源相关规划和政策提供了科学支撑。     

全球可再生能源2030路线图

<正>在全球节能减排的背景下,发展可再生能源成为解决环境污染、确保能源安全、保障能源供给、减缓对国际依赖的主要措施之一。但是,目前全球可再生能源的使用量远远低于可再生能源的开发潜力。有鉴于此,国际可再生能源机构(IRENA)在对政府官方数据进行充分研究的基础上发布了《全球可再生能源2030路线图》报告。该报告提出了2030年实现全球可再生能源比例翻倍的总体路径和多层次路线图选项,重点分析了实现这一     

我国油气中长期发展趋势与战略选择

以超长期趋势预测为基础,通过对2030—2050年我国石油天然气供需形势的系统分析,提出有效应对能源安全挑战的战略措施和建议。研究结果表明,我国石油需求将长期处于增长态势,而石油产量将保持基本稳定,供需缺口不断加大,为此应在努力控制需求的同时积极稳妥地发展石油替代,力争石油对外依存度不超过60%;天然气作为清洁、优质的化石能源,对改善我国能源结构、推动低碳经济发展具有重要作用,应进一步采取积极有效措施,加快国内天然气资源的勘探开发,加大国外天然气资源的引进利用,力争2030—2050年天然气在我国一次能源结构中的比例升至10%以上。在此基础上,提出了我国油气中长期发展战略与技术路线以及6项战略措施建议。     

我国天然气资源潜力及其在未来低碳经济发展中的重要地位

以天然气发展趋势分析为基础,对我国天然气的资源潜力、加快发展的有利条件、2030年以后可能达到的规模以及在未来低碳经济发展中的地位进行了系统研究。研究结果表明,我国常规与非常规天然气资源都很丰富,而且天然气工业发展比石油大约晚30年,目前刚刚进入大发展的初期,未来具有十分良好的发展前景,预计到2030年我国天然气年产量有望达到3 000亿m3,并有望保持到2050年。同时,研究发现我国毗邻中亚—俄罗斯、中东和亚太三大富气区,具有多元化利用国外资源的区位优势。通过自产与引进并重,2030—2050年天然气在我国一次能源结构中比例有望达到10%以上,对改善能源结构和推动低碳经济发展将发挥重要作用。     

我国能源技术革命形势及方向分析

能源技术革命是助推能源消费、供给、体制革命和加强国际合作的基础,是实现清洁低碳、安全高效可持续的现代能源体系的支撑,是建设创新型国家的重要内容。本文阐述了我国的能源形势与面临的挑战,以2020年、2030年、2050年三个不同发展时期作为时间节点,研究了未来的能源结构。分析总结了技术发展的共同趋势,即实现多领域能源技术协同并进。明确了技术发展方向,即实现能源技术的跨越式发展和引领,构建中国特色的能源技术创新体系。     

新能源材料

<正>世界2050年前有望全部使用可再生能源根据一项对全球114位知名能源专家所作调查显示,世界在2050年之前实现100%使用可再生能源是可行的。在联合国环境规划署的支持下,非政府组织"21世纪可再生能源政策网络"日前在联合国纽约总部发布了一份报告,题为《全球未来可再生能源报告:实现100%可再生能源的大辩论》。该组织发言人克里斯蒂娜·林斯表示,世界上越来越多的国家在向可再生能源转型。其中,中国和美国在可再生能源和提高能源效率方面的投资增加最多。     

风电功率预测技术及应用

随着社会经济的快速发展,能源已成为制约人类经济社会发展的主要因素之一,为了应对越来越紧张的能源供应和化石能源导致的气候影响,世界各国都十分重视可再生能源的开发和利用。欧盟提出了2020年可再生能源替代常规能源达到20%,2050年达到80%～100%的计划,中国也提出在2020年中国非化石能源占能源总量     

我国燃煤发电CCS/CCUS技术发展方向及发展路线图研究

我国目前是世界第一大碳排放国,煤炭占我国能源消费碳排放的75%以上,面临较大的减排压力。本文提出了碳捕获和埋存/碳捕获、利用和埋存(CCS/CCUS)技术发展方向,按时间节点制定了我国CO_2捕集技术和输送技术发展路线图、CO_2化工、微藻生物制油和矿化等利用技术发展路线图;对2020、2030、2050年可能达到的全国碳排放量进行测算,对节能降耗、调整能源结构、CCS/CCUS技术对CO_2减排的贡献度进行了评估,并提出了推广应用建议。     

行业信息

联合国呼吁全球可再生能源比重20年后翻番联合国工业开发组织负责人近日表示,2030年可再生能源占全球能源供应的比例应达到30%。目前全球使用的能源中,大约13%来自可再生能源,水能、风能、地热能和太阳能发挥的作用很小。联合国一直致力于消除贫困和减缓气候变化,为此,     

Further emissions and energy targeting: an application of CO2 emissions pinch analysis to the Irish electricity generation sector

This paper aims to further probe the influence of the emission factors of renewable energy on both the energy resource mix and emissions mix of the Irish electricity generation sector. Furthermore, the effects of external short-term disturbances on the same mixes are studied in relation to the generation of CO₂ emissions. This paper explores the recently developed CO₂ emissions pinch analysis methodology, which can determine the sector’s optimal energy resource mix, and then further extends the basic methodology with two new adaptations (improvements). The adapted methodology is designed to give improved and more realistic energy and emissions targets for renewables. These adaptations are illustrated using the sector’s statistics for the years 2005 and 2006.     

“双碳”目标下的电能价值分析与市场机制设计

自“2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和”的目标提出后,中央财经委员会第九次会议又进一步提出实现该目标的基本思路和主要举措,特别是实施可再生能源替代行动,深化电力体制改革,构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统。这些举措必将导致电源结构的重大调整。另一方面,近年来世界范围内电力市场中各类负面事件接连不断,引起各方广泛关注。这些事件产生的原因与电源结构缺陷和电力市场设计不合理有很大的关系。结合近期全球电力市场典型事故的介绍和原因分析,重点探讨了电源结构的变化所引起的安全风险和电能价值的多样化等问题,分析了电力市场体制机制所面临的挑战,并提出了初步解决方案。电力定价和电力市场设计应建立在电能价值规律的基础之上。在可再生能源大规模接入的背景下,电能除了传统电力市场中的容量价值、电量价值,还具有灵活性、安全性和弹性价值等多种不同的价值,使得问题更加复杂,因此针对这些问题进行了初步分析。     

Energy policy shifts towards sustainable energy future for Malaysia

As a developing country, Malaysia’s prosperity and welfare depends heavily on having access to reliable and secure supplies of energy. As a result, the country’s future energy requirements have become a policy priority in recent years. Energy is essential for human life, and a secure and accessible supply of energy becomes important for the modern societies. Fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas are currently the world’s primary energy sources and continue to provide energy source to the world. These energy sources have depleted in reserves in recent years and they can also cause irreparably damage to the environment such as global warming and climate change. These environmental concerns can be addressed, to some extent, through more sustainable solutions such as the use of renewable energy resources. In Malaysia, the economic and environmental impacts of fossil fuels use have become hard to ignore. The government has introduced and implemented policy measures to address concerns surrounding the use of fossil fuels and to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy use. In this paper, we review the historical evolution of Malaysian energy policies and initiatives designed to secure diverse energy sources and avoid over-reliance on fossil fuels. In recent years, Malaysia has been catching up with global call to shift to renewable energy use and is now putting a focus on renewable energy in its future energy mix. The paper also discusses challenges and concerns over the future of sustainable energy of the country.     

Optimal subsidy in promoting distributed renewable energy generation based on policy benefit

Distributed renewable energy generation via micro-grid plays a strategic role in defining energy policy for mitigating the pressure of global climate changes and energy reservation. As the initial installation of the renewable generation equipment is costly, it is necessary that the government provides incentive schemes to private investors aiming at mobilizing private capital to support distributed renewable energy generation. This paper brings forward optimal subsidy to stimulate private investment and focuses more on the government’s expected policy benefit. We formulate principal–agent model in which the private investor’s preference toward renewable generation is described as asymmetric information. We analyze the optimal subsidy with the purpose of maximizing the expected policy benefit; besides, this paper reveals benefit conflicts between the policymakers and the private investors, and examines the parameters’ effect on the government’s purpose under the condition of asymmetric information. Finally, a numerical example is presented to test the effectiveness of the model. The results shed new light on the role of investor’s preference in determining the share of renewable energy generation; moreover, it has important implication for policymakers: the results suggest that radically innovative systems will get down the cost curve and may display higher long-term potentials, but in the short run, the government should eliminate asymmetric information as far as possible and improve the investors’ environment-friendly awareness.     

Transforming the energy sector: the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology

This paper analyses the development and diffusion of technologiesthat utilize renewable energy sources in Germany, Sweden andthe Netherlands. The analysis enlarges the life cycle modelof industry evolution to one where the focus is on the formationand evolution of new technological systems. Particular focusis on explaining success and failures in shifting from a formativephase into one characterized by positive feedbacks. A set ofchallenges is identified for policy makers attempting to influencethe process of transforming the energy sector.     

The potential of biomass supply for energetic utilization in a small Italian region: Basilicata

The European Union Directive 2009/28/EC (European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC, Directive 2009/28/EC) establishes a common framework for the use of energy from renewable sources in order to reduce both greenhouse gas emissions and reliance on fossil fuels from foreign markets; more specifically the EU has the ambitious goal of reaching a 20 % share of energy from renewable sources in the overall energy mix by 2020. These objectives could drive policies that offer substantial economic subsidies for the use of renewable energy, both in Italy and in many other European countries. For all these reasons, biomass (one of the major sources of renewable energy) plants are getting a lot of attention in Italy, but it is necessary to determine whether using of this type of energy is environmentally beneficial and economically feasible. In this study, we evaluate the energy and so the environmental aspects by considering both current and potential biomass supplies available for energy utilization in a small region in the South of Italy: Basilicata, as well as the consequences of this energy conversion at both the local and the global scale.     

我国太阳能光伏产业现状及未来展望

太阳能光伏发电是可再生能源利用的重要形式,也是我国目前重点发展的、为数不多的具有全球竞争力的战略性新兴产业之一。本文详细分析了太阳能光伏产业国内外发展现状及未来趋势,分析了我国太阳能光伏产业现状和存在的问题,对光伏产业的健康发展提出了若干建议并对光伏产业的未来发展进行了展望。     

Dimensions of manufacturing automation

The gamut of manufacturing automation and its ramifications in relation, to the strategic and operational issues can be appreciated only if the forces driving the system towards automation and their interrelationships are understood, Whether the automated technology is rigid (hard automation) or flexible; whether the control architecture for the system is interactive, passive, or intelligent; and whether the system is a direct evolution from a corresponding conventional (non-automated) system are some of the important considerations. A framework is required to relate the system parameters, leading to different configurations, with the strategic issues such as mix of configurations and path of evolution from one to another (or a mix) configuration, and operational issues such as a hierarchical (push) versus pull production control and the software logic support. Such a framework in terms of technological sophistication levels and control software sophistication levels is presented.     

Exploring the determinants of renewable energy innovation considering the institutional factors: A negative binomial analysis

Replacing traditional energy sources with renewable energy sources is an effective way to achieve emission reduction targets. Focusing on OECD countries from 1990 to 2018, this study examines the determinants of renewable energy innovation by applying a negative binomial model. There are four main findings: (1) Renewable energy patents show an inverted U-shaped curve, peaking in 2010; solar energy accounts for the largest share of patents; and the US is the largest renewable energy innovator, followed by South Korea and Germany. (2) Renewable electricity installed capacity, share of expenditure on research and development (R&D) of GDP, and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are all found to promote innovation; by comparison, the proportion of renewable energy power generation of the total electricity generating capacity shows a negative effect. The price of crude oil shows no significant effect due to the offset effect between the European and non-European country groups. (3) Share of R&D expenditure of GDP is confirmed to be the force driving technological progress in the solar, geothermal, and marine sectors, and it plays a more important role in Japan than in the US or Europe. Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol has no significant effect on innovation in European countries. (4) Three institutional factors—namely, the legal system and property rights; regulations; and freedom to trade internationally—are confirmed to be the driving forces, whereas this is not the case for the growth and free circulation of money. Policy implications for the optimization of the renewable energy sector's structure, the enhancement of renewable energy capacity, and the improvement of R&D investment and the institutional environment are proposed. Future research should shed light on a broader sample, using micro-level and socio-technical analysis.     

英国可再生能源技术管理与开发调研

介绍了中国农业部2000年9－10月赴英国可再生能源技术管理与开发培训考察团在英国的培训调研成果。对我国可再生能源的研究与开发工作提出了建议。