Changing Income Inequality in Nonmetropolitan Counties, 1980 to 1990*

Abstract Income inequality has been increasing across the United States, but little is known about changing income inequality in nonmetropolitan counties. Data from the 1980 and 1990 Summary Tape Files of the U.S. Census of Population and Housing are used to estimate ordinary least squares models of change in income inequality. Household income inequality increased in a smaller share of nonmetro than metro counties from 1980 to 1990, and increases in income inequality were influenced more strongly by economic restructuring in nonmetro than in metro counties. Other factors, such as change in household structure, demographic composition, and labor supply and job quality, were generally similar in affecting income inequality in nonmetro and metro counties. The greater importance of economic restructuring in nonmetro counties indicates the lesser diversity and smaller size of local economies, and their greater vulnerability to forces of economic restructuring.     

Changing Economic Opportunities,Family Structure,and Poverty in Rural Areas1

Abstract Instrustrial restructuring in the 1980s ushered in a new pattern of growing economic diversity over geographic space. The objective of this study is to examine the extent and etiology of changing spatial inequality between and within metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas, as measured by increasing or decreasing county poverty rates. Results based on data from the 1980 and 1990 census summary tape files suggest several conclusions. First, poverty rates increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties during the 1980s; historical patterns of metro-nonmetro economic convergence slowed over the past decade. Second, poverty rates tended to decline in nonmetro counties with traditionally high rates of poverty, thus providing counter-evidence to arguments suggesting that the gap between traditionally poor and nonpoor nonmetro counties has widened. Third, spatial differences in poverty rates and relative increases in county poverty rates over the 1980s were most strongly associated with women's employment and headship status. The results raise questions about the extent to which traditional rural economic development strategies address the potentially deleterious economic effects of rising percentages of poor female-headed families.     

Economic Restructuring and Changing Prevalence of Female-headed Families in America1

Abstract Industrial restructuring has altered economic circumstances in the U.S., but the influences of these changes on family structure are not clear. This study examines whether industrial restructuring influences female headship and whether these effects differ in nonmetro and metro counties. Results based on data from the 1980 and 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing Summary Tape Files indicate several conclusions. First, female headed households increased more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties from 1980 to 1990, although there was a great deal of variation across counties. Second, industrial restructuring contributed to change in female headship in nonmetro and metro counties, and changes in various industries had differing effects on female headship. Third, overall gains in women's employment in a county had no influence on formation of female headed households, gains in men's employment deterred female headship, and gains for women in specific industries tended to slow formation of these households. Fourth, controlling for changes in median income and part-time work did little to reduce the industry-specific influences on change in female headship. The results suggest that linkages between industrial restructuring and family structure do exist, although the models are less able to explain changes in female headship in nonmetro than in metro counties.     

Nonmetropolitan Poor Children and Reliance on Public Assistance1

Abstract This research documents trends from 1970 through 1990 in the utilization and ameliorative effects of public assistance among poor children in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) and metropolitan (metro) America. Results indicate that the families of nonmetro poor children rely more heavily on parental earnings and less so on public assistance when compared to their metro counterparts; that there was a sharp rise over the period in reliance on public assistance, especially among nonmetro children, and a corresponding decline in reliance on earnings; that the ability of public assistance to ameliorate child poverty is modest; and that while the ameliorative effects are always greater in metro than nonmetro areas, this disparity declined over the 1980s owing partially to improvement in nonmetro areas.     

Working Poverty across the Metro‐Nonmetro Divide: A Quarter Century in Perspective, 1979–2003

Researchers are increasingly recognizing space as a key axis of inequality. Scholars concerned with spatial inequality have called for special attention to issues of comparative advantage and disadvantage across space as well as the consideration of the subnational scale. This study draws on these ideas by examining the relationship between work and poverty in the United States with an explicit comparative focus on metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas. Moreover, this study joins space with its counterpart time by exploring how this relationship has changed over the last quarter century. Using data from the March Current Population Survey, the results show that working poverty persistently had a disproportionate impact on nonmetro families between 1979 and 2003. However, the results also show a trend of residential convergence, as working poverty in metro areas has climbed toward the levels experienced in nonmetro areas. Logistic‐regression models exploring the effects of residence, family labor supply, and period confirm that labor supply has consistently provided nonmetro families with less protection from poverty than their metro counterparts, but also show that this disadvantage has waned in recent years. The findings underscore the need for policies that support those working on the economic margins and recognize the variable opportunity costs of employment across the rural‐urban continuum.     

Race,Residence, and Underemployment: Fifty Years in Comparative Perspective, 1968–2017

High underemployment has been a chronic structural feature of the rural United States for decades. In this paper, we assess whether and how inequalities in underemployment between metropolitan (metro) and nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas have changed over the course of the last five decades. Drawing on data from the March Current Population Survey from 1968 to 2017, we analyze inequality in the prevalence of underemployment between metro and nonmetro areas of the United States, paying special attention to differences between white, black, and Hispanic workers. Our results show that the underlying risk of underemployment has increased in both metro and nonmetro areas over the last 50 years. Nonmetro workers have consistently faced greater employment hardship compared to their metro counterparts, and these differences cannot be fully explained by differences in population characteristics. Nonmetro ethnoracial minorities have experienced particularly poor labor market outcomes. The disadvantage of ethnoracial minority status and rural residence is especially pronounced for nonmetro black workers, among whom underemployment has remained persistently high with only modest convergence with other workers. Hispanic workers also face an elevated risk of underemployment, but we observe a unique convergence between metro and nonmetro workers within this population.     

Race,Ethnicity, and Underemployment in Nonmetropolitan America: A 30‐Year Profile*

Abstract Historically, rural racial and ethnic minorities have been among the most economically disadvantaged groups in the United States. Key to understanding economic deprivation is employment hardship, trends in which serve as a benchmark for progress toward racial and ethnic equality. We conceptualize employment hardship as underemployment, which goes beyond unemployment to include discouraged workers, involuntary part‐time workers, and the working poor. Analyzing data from the March Current Population Surveys of 1968 through 1998, we find that (1) there are large and persistent racial and ethnic inequalities in underemployment prevalence; (2) these disadvantages are explained only partially by other predictors of underemployment; (3) nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) minorities are more likely than either all metropolitan (metro) or central‐city minorities to be underemployed; (4) black‐white inequality has held steady overall, though it has declined markedly in nonmetro areas; and (5) Hispanic‐white inequality has increased; this trend, however, is restricted to metro areas, central cities in particular.     

Nonmetropolitan Residential Segregation Revisited

Abstract Nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) residential segregation in 1990 and change in the preceding decade have received insufficient attention. A set of empirical hypotheses are derived and assessed using nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) counties in Texas. Places in nonmetro counties were more segregated than places in metro counties in 1990 as in 1980. Substantial declines in segregation occurred in both nonmetro and metro places but were largest in growing places in nonmetro counties. An analysis controlling for other determinants of segregation supports the premise that population change was a major determinant of 1980–1990 change in segregation. Implications for nonmetro areas in the 1990s are discussed.     

The Nonmetro/metro Context of Racial/ethnic Outmarriage: Some Differences between African Americans and Mexican Americans1

Abstract Data from the 1990 U. S. Census are used to examine nonmetro-metro distinctions in the outmarriage patterns of the nation's two largest minority groups—African Americans and Mexican Americans. The analysis is guided by a multilevel model combining individual- and community-level determinants of outmarriage. Consistent with notions suggesting that persons in metro areas are less traditional and, perhaps, more tolerant of those different from them, we find that African Americans living in metro areas are more likely to be married to someone from another racial/ethnic group than their peers in nonmetro areas, even after residential differences in individual and community characteristics are taken into account. On the other hand, controlling for other factors, Mexican Americans living in metro areas are not any more likely than those living in nonmetro settings to be exogamous. One possible explanation for this divergent pattern is the relatively recent urbanization of the Mexican American population.     

State Welfare Rules,TANF Exits,and Geographic Context: Does Place Matter?*

Abstract This research compares the likelihood of exiting TANF with and without employment and the effects of important state TANF rules on welfare exits in more disadvantaged (large Rustbelt cities and poor southern nonmetro) and less disadvantaged (other metro and other nonmetro) areas during the 1996–2003 post‐welfare reform period. Hierarchical competing risk models using individual‐level data from the 1996–99 and 2001–03 Panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation merged with state‐level data from various sources show that female TANF participants in poor southern nonmetro areas are the least likely to exit TANF with work, and participants in large Rustbelt cities are less likely to exit TANF with work than those in other metro areas. Non‐work TANF exits are more likely to occur in other nonmetro areas than in other metro areas. Importantly, the effects of state welfare rules on TANF exits differ across places of residence. For example, stringent time limit policies promote work exits in large Rustbelt cities but promote non‐work exits in poor southern nonmetro areas. More lenient earned income disregards are significantly related to remaining on TANF in poor southern nonmetro areas but promote work exits in all other places. Findings from this paper imply that states should not take a “one‐size‐fits‐all approach” to reduce welfare caseloads.     

Crime in Nonmetropolitan America: A National Accounting of Trends,Incidence Rates,and Idiosyncratic Vulnerabilities1

Abstract The prevalence and nature of crime in rural America have been given relatively little research attention. An overview of the trends, incidence rates, and particular vulnerabilities nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) residents have to criminal victimization compared with their metropolitan (metro) counterparts are provided through data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Results indicate that victimization rates for all locations generally have been declining since the peak rates witnessed in the mid- 1970s, with residents of metro central cities being the most susceptible to victimization, followed by other metro and nonmetro residents, respectively. Certain subgroups of nonmetro residents, however, are as susceptible as their counterparts in metro areas who reside outside central cities to particular types of victimization. Implications for policy are discussed.     

The Changing Spatial Concentration of America's Rural Poor Population*

Abstract This paper documents changing patterns of concentrated poverty in nonmetro areas. Data from the Decennial U.S. Census Summary Files show that poverty rates—both overall and for children—declined more rapidly in nonmetro than metro counties in the 1990s. The 1990s also brought large reductions in the number of high‐poverty nonmetro counties and declines in the share of rural people, including rural poor people, who were living in them. This suggests that America's rural pockets of poverty may be “drying up” and that spatial inequality in nonmetro America declined over the 1990s, at least at the county level. On a less optimistic note, concentrated poverty among rural minorities remains exceptionally high. Roughly one‐half of all rural blacks and one‐third of rural Hispanics live in poor counties. Poor minorities are even more highly concentrated in poor areas. Rural children—especially rural minority children—have poverty rates well above national and nonmetro rates, the concentration of rural minority children is often extreme (i.e., over 80% lived in high‐poverty counties), and the number of nonmetro counties with high levels of persistent child poverty remains high (over 600 counties). Rural poor children may be more disadvantaged than ever, especially if measured by their lack of access to opportunities and divergence with children living elsewhere. Patterns of poverty among rural children—who often grow up to be poor adults— suggest that recent declines in concentrated rural poverty may be short‐lived.     

Are the Effects of the Macroeconomy and Social Policies on Poverty Different in Nonmetro Areas in the United States?*

Abstract The macroeconomy and social policies can have substantial influences on poverty in the United States. In this paper, I investigate whether these influences differ across metro and nonmetro areas. To do so, using a 16‐year panel of state‐level data, I estimate state and year fixed effects models separately for metro and nonmetro areas to see if the effects of the macroeconomy and social policies differ between these two areas. These models are estimated using two measures—the poverty rate and the squared poverty gap—and by family type. I find that cyclical forces have a much stronger effect on the poverty rate in nonmetro areas in comparison to metro areas, but the effects are similar for the squared poverty gap; wage growth has a pronounced effect on poverty in metro areas but no effect in nonmetro areas; and state‐level social policies have slightly larger effects in nonmetro areas, but the effects are small.     

Changing Linkages Between Work and Poverty in Rural America1

Abstract The changing relationship between work and poverty in non-metropolitan (nonmetro) America is documented using data from the 1980 and 1990 March supplements of the Current Population Survey. Specifically, this paper assesses changing differentials in the proportion of poor people who are working; documents the rapid rise in poverty among nonmetro and metropolitan (metro) workers during the 1979—1989 period, especially among young adults and females; and provides evidence of growing inequality between metro and nonmetro workers, a pattern that cannot be explained by differences in work attachment, human capital, or job characteristics. The results imply that poverty is a persistent if not increasingly harsh reality for workers in rural America.     

Returns vs. Endowments in the Earnings Attainment Process for Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Men and Women1

Abstract Three explanations typically are offered for differences in earnings: (1) individuals have different levels of human capital and hold different jobs (endowments differ), (2) rewards to human capital and job characteristics differ (returns differ), and (3) some combination of differences in endowments and returns explain variations in earnings. We argue that the structure of labor markets in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas differs from that in metropolitan (metro) areas such that returns, as well as endowments, vary. These variations in returns favor metropolitan workers, explaining the predominant portion of the metro/nonmetro earnings gap. We examine the earnings differences for metro and nonmetro men and women in both 1977 and 1987, showing that returns outweigh endowments in explaining that gap for both men and women, although their importance decreases over the ten-year period. Research to improve our understanding of how differences in labor market structure produce differential returns has begun and may yield yet another avenue for action for policymakers interested in reducing metro/nonmetro inequalities.     

Becoming Poor: The Experiences of Elders1

Elderly Americans residing in nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) areas have higher poverty prevalence than their metropolitan (metro) counterparts. Data from both the response and nonresponse files of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1988 wave) are analyzed to establish the extent to which this disadvantage also occurs in the length of poverty spells and the risk of becoming poor at older ages. Specifically, for individuals aged 55 and older Kaplan-Meier survival functions and multivariate discrete-time hazards models are estimated to document residential differences in the poverty risks of metro and nonmetro men and women. Nonpoor nonmetro elders are much more likely to become poor than metro elders. These results hold when controlling for race, education, marital status, age, change in work effort, becoming widowed, and types of income received.     

Deserts and oases: the continuing concentration of population in the American Mountain West

The Mountain West is a region that seems to be simultaneously rural and urban. With its wide-open spaces, many national parks, monuments, and forests, and high degree of federal land ownership the West appears as the quintessential rural area. However, over 70 percent of the West's population live in metropolitan areas. This simultaneous rural and urban nature of the West is important in understanding the changing population geography of the region. We examine this by focusing on changing patterns of population concentration among metro and nonmetro counties. Unlike other regions in the US, the Mountain West has never experienced a period of counterurbanization or population deconcentration. Not only is current in-migration to the region increasingly concentrated in old and new metro areas, it is also concentrated in a select number of nonmetro areas as well—particularly nonmetro counties adjacent to metro areas, in retirement destinations, and in recreation centers.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

Female‐Headed Families and Poverty in Rural America*

Abstract Employing data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 March supplements of the Current Population Surveys, this study examines changing household and family structure in metro and nonmetro areas and corresponding changes in poverty, emphasizing female‐headed families with children under age 18. We also pay particular attention to the structure and economic conditions of subfamilies with children during this period. Household and family structure in suburban metro and nonmetro areas were quite similar by 2000. In contrast, families and households in nonmetro and metro central city areas were similar in their high prevalence of poverty. Finally, the risk of female‐headed families and subfamilies with children living in poverty is highest for nonmetro residents, and their individual characteristics suppress rather than account for this disadvantage. This pattern persisted across the decades studied, despite economic growth during the 1990s.     

Migration of Retirement‐Age Blacks to Nonmetropolitan Areas in the 1990s

Older blacks migrated to nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) communities in the 1990s to a degree not true of the past. Some of the nonmetro counties that attracted them are well‐known retirement areas also favored by other retirees, mostly whites. Two‐thirds of black retirement counties, however, are areas in the Old South that are not attracting other retirees at a substantial rate, if at all. Although the data indicate significant rates of retirement‐age blacks migrating to 85 nonmetro counties, most migration by older blacks is to metro destinations.