| 中国农业气候年景的评估及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙家民,黄朝迎.中国农业气候年景的评估及预测[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(Z1):111-115. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙家民 黄朝迎 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目“短期气候预测系统的总装与业务化试验研究”课题 (96 90 8 0 6)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用历年逐旬降水量距平绝对值累积值、负距平累积值、正距平累积值为指标 ,分别表示旱涝、干旱、洪涝程度 ,以此分别建立旱涝受 (成 )灾面积、干旱受 (成 )灾面积、洪涝受 (成 )灾面积与逐旬降水量距平绝对值累积值、负距平累积值、正距平累积值之间的回归评估模型。然后 ,利用百分位数方法 ,将受 (成 )灾面积分为 5级 ,进行农业气候年景旱涝评价。经历史回代检验和预报检验 ,效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 距平累积值 回归评估模型 5级分类 农业气候 年景旱涝评价 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年7月19日 |
ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION FOR ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL CLIMATE STATUS IN CHINA |
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| Sun Jiamin,Huang Chaoying.ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION FOR ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL CLIMATE STATUS IN CHINA[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2005,16(Z1):111-115. |
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| Authors: | Sun Jiamin Huang Chaoying |
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| Abstract: | The yearly accumulating values of absolute precipitation departure, negative departure, positive departure in a period of ten days were adopted as some indexes to show the extents of drought, flood, drought and flood respectively. The regression models between them were established respectively. Then affecting and suffering areas were divided as 5 levels using percentile and yearly agricultural climate status were assessed. The effect is good through history test. |
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| Keywords: | Accumulating values of precipitation departure Regression models 5 levels Assessment of annual agricultural climate status |
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