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近45年拉萨深层地温变化趋势分析
引用本文:杜军,胡军,杨勇,拉巴,路红亚.近45年拉萨深层地温变化趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):96-100.
作者姓名:杜军  胡军  杨勇  拉巴  路红亚
作者单位:1.西藏自治区气候中心, 拉萨 850001
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“西藏羊卓雍湖对全球气候变化的响应”(40565002)资助.
摘    要:利用1961—2005年拉萨0.8 m, 1.6 m和3.2 m逐月平均地温, 采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信噪比等气候诊断方法, 分析了近45年拉萨深层平均地温的变化趋势, 以及异常、突变等气候特征。结果表明:近45年拉萨0.8 m和1.6 m年平均地温呈极显著的增温趋势, 倾向率为 (0.58~0.69 ℃)/10a;0.8 m和1.6 m平均地温倾向率春季最大, 秋季最小; 3.2 m平均地温却以夏季升幅最大, 冬季最小; 与同时期平均气温的增温幅度比较, 地温增幅更大; 20世纪60—90年代0.8 m和1.6 m年平均地温呈明显的逐年代升高趋势; 季平均地温20世纪60—70年代均偏低, 80年代大部分季节仍略偏低, 90年代都表现为正距平; 0.8 m, 1.6 m和3.2 m年平均地温均在1999年出现了异常偏暖, 异常偏冷现象仅发生在1.6 m土层上, 时间为1963年; 夏季深层平均地温异常偏暖均发生在1999年; 冬季0.8 m和1.6 m平均地温多异常偏冷年份, 主要发生在20世纪60年代; 1999, 2002—2005年冬季3.2 m平均地温异常偏暖; 夏、秋季和年平均地温的气候突变都出现在1986年, 冬、春季发生在1983年。

关 键 词:拉萨    地温    倾向率    异常年份    气候突变
收稿时间:2006-08-14
修稿时间:2007-07-09

Variations Trend of Soil Temperature at Deep Layers in Lhasa from 1961 to 2005
Du Jun,Hu Jun,Yang Yong,Lhak P,Lu Hongya Tibet Climate Center,Lhasa ; Lhasa Meteorological Bureau,Lhasa.Variations Trend of Soil Temperature at Deep Layers in Lhasa from 1961 to 2005[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2008,19(1):96-100.
Authors:Du Jun  Hu Jun  Yang Yong  Lhak P  Lu Hongya Tibet Climate Center  Lhasa ; Lhasa Meteorological Bureau  Lhasa
Affiliation:1.Tibet Climate Center, Lhasa 8500012.Lhasa Meteorological Bureau, Lhasa 850001
Abstract:Using the data of monthly mean soil temperatures at 0.8 m, 1.6 m and 3.2 m in Lhasa from 1961 to 2005, the linear trend, climatic anomalous and climate abrupt of deep soil temperature during recent 45 years are analyzed by using of linear trend analysis, accumulated variance and signal noise ratio methods.In terms of linear trend, the annual mean soil temperatures at 0.8 m and 1.6 m display a significant increasing trend in Lhasa in the past 45 years, and an increase of (0.54—0.62 ℃)/10a, especially at 0.8 m is indicated. During recent 35 years (1971—2005), the maximum rising range of mean soil temperature at 0.8 m and 1.6 m is in spring, the rate of rising is (0.84—0.69 ℃)/10a, its minimum is in autumn. But the maximum rising range of mean soil temperature at 3.2 m is in summer, the rate of rising is 0.71 ℃/10a, and its minimum is in winter. Comparing to the air temperature, the rising range of soil temperature is bigger in the same period. In addition, the rising range of the mean soil temperature at deep layer increases, specifically at 0.8 m and 1.6 m.There is an obvious increase tendency of inter-decadal variations of the annual mean soil temperatures at 0.8 m and 1.6 m from the 1960s to the 1990s. The seasonal mean soil temperatures at 0.8 m and 1.6 m are low from the 1960s to the 1970s, obviously in spring, and they are still low slightly in the most seasons of the 1980s. But there is positive anomaly of the mean soil temperature in all the seasons of the 1990s, specifically in spring and summer.The inter-decadal variations of the seasonal mean soil temperature at 3.2 m show an obvious increase trend from the 1970s to the 1990s. There is negative anomaly of the mean soil temperature at 3.2 m in all the seasons of the 1970s, especially in summer. To the contrary in the 1990s, there is positive anomaly of mean soil temperature in all seasons. It is also much evident in summer.The annual mean soil temperatures at 0.8 m, 1.6 m and 3.2 m are anomalous warm in 1999, whereas anomalous cold year occurs only in 1963 at 1.6 m.In summer, the anomalous warm of the mean soil temperature at deep layer takes place in 1999. In winter, the soil temperatures at 0.8 m and 1.6 m are anomalous cold in years in 1960s, and the mean soil temperatures at 3.2 m are anomalous warm in 1999, 2002—2005.Except for no abrupt change at 3.2 m in winter, the seasonal and annual mean soil temperatures at deep layer have abrupt changes, and it occurs in the 1980s. In summer and autumn there is a sudden change in 1986, in spring and winter there is a climate abrupt in 1983.
Keywords:Lhasa  soil temperature  linear trend  anomalous years  climate abrupt
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