| 未来50年中国气候变化趋势的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王绍武,赵宗慈.未来50年中国气候变化趋势的初步研究[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(3):333-342. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王绍武 赵宗慈 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.北京大学地球物理系，国家气候中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 85－913－02课题《气候变化机理及未来50年中国气候变化预测的研究》专题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章比较了各种气候模式对温室效应的估计，及其可能对中国气候的影响。分析和预测了太阳活动与火山活动的长期变化，在此基础上估计了未来可能产生的自然气候变化。结果表明，在未来50年中太阳活动和火山活动均可能使气候变冷。因此，可能在一定程度上抵消因温室效应加剧而产生的变暖。但在2010年之后，温室效应可能逐步占据主导地位，到2030年全球平均气温可能比1961～1990年平均上升0.6℃以上，东亚地区的增温，可能比全球平均稍强。气候变暖后，东亚地区降水可能增加。但在我国北方，夏季干旱程度可能加大。
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| 关 键 词： | 温室效应 全球变暖 气候预测 太阳活动 火山活动 |
A Study of the Trend of Climatic Change During the Period of Next 50 Years |
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| Wang Shaowu.A Study of the Trend of Climatic Change During the Period of Next 50 Years[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1995,6(3):333-342. |
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| Authors: | Wang Shaowu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.1) (Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871); 2) (National Climate Center, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | A comparison study was made of the modeling results from a series of models to calculate the climatic impact of greenhouse effect, especially, its impact on the climate of China was studied. Meanwhile, the possible natural climatic change in the next 50 years was also considered, which depends mainly on the long-term changes of solar irradiance and volcanism. It is shown that the cooling associated with the natural climatic variability may compensate to some extent the warming caused by the strong increment of greenhouse effect. However, the greenhouse effect will gradually predominate over the two factors above mentioned after 2010 AD. Global mean temperature may rise over 0.6℃ in the 2030s in comparison with the annual mean of 1961~1990. It is possible that the temperature increment in East Asia will be greater than that averaged for the globe. Annual precipitation will be increased in general over East Asia, but summer drought may be intensified in the northern China with increasing of evaporation and decreasing of rainfall. |
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| Keywords: | Greenhouse effect Global warming Climatic prediction Solar activity Volcanism |
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