| 多种降水实况融合产品在四川一次强降水过程中的评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 龙柯吉,谷军霞,师春香,潘旸,黄晓龙.多种降水实况融合产品在四川一次强降水过程中的评估[J].高原山地气象研究,2020,40(2):31-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龙柯吉 谷军霞 师春香 潘旸 黄晓龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省气象台,成都 610072;高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都 610072;国家气象信息中心,北京 100081;四川省气象探测数据中心,成都 610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局科技条件专项(2060503)；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室重点专项(SCQXKJZD2020002)；西南区域多源融合实况产品研究创新团队(西南气中[2018]13号)；气象预报业务关键技术发展专项项目(YBGJXM[2020]1A-08，YBGJXM[2019]01-07)；高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室青年专项(SCQXKJQN2020035) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用四川省地面观测小时和分钟降水数据，针对2019年发生在四川地区的首场区域性暴雨过程，采用多种评估指标对国家气象信息中心研发的九种降水融合产品进行对比评估。结果表明:四种24h降水融合产品(CMPAS_24h_RT05、CMPAS_24h_NRT05、CMPAS_24h_RT01、CMPAS_24h_NRT01)、四种1h降水融合产品(CMPAS_RT05、CMPAS_NRT05、CMPAS_RT01、CMPAS_NRT01)和一种10min降水融合产品(CMPAS_10MIN05)均能较好的反映强降水落区的时空变化趋势，但降水极大值都较实况有一定的低估。总体而言，降水融合产品的质量较高，对强降水有很好的监测能力，累计降水量与实况相当，1h降水融合产品与实况的相关系数超过0.924，晴雨准确率在94.4%以上，10min降水融合产品与实况相关系数为0.85，两种产品的TS评分都随降水量级的增大而降低。对比而言，1km产品优于5km产品，近实时产品优于实时产品，1h产品优于10min产品。1h融合产品的降水合计与24h融合产品降水量一致，10min和1h降水存在不一致的问题，但二者差异不大。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水 实况融合产品 质量评估 四川盆地 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-04-27 |
Quality Assessment of Several Merged Precipitation Products in a Heavy Rainfall Process in Sichuan |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Sichuan Province Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;3. National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing 10081, China;4. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observation and Data Centre, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the hour and minute precipitation data of ground observation in Sichuan Province,nine kinds of merged precipitation products developed by the National Meteorological Information Center were compared and assessed in the first regional rainstorm process in 2019 in Sichuan by using several assessment indicators. The results show that four kinds of 24h merged precipitation products (CMPAS_24h_RT05,CMPAS_24h_NRT05,CMPAS_24h_RT01, CMPAS_24h_NRT01),four kinds of 1h merged precipitation products (CMPAS_RT05,CMPAS_NRT05,CMPAS_RT01,CMPAS_NRT01) and one kind of 10min merged precipitation products (CMPAS_10MIN05) can better reflect the spatiotemporal change trend of heavy rainfall area,but the maximum values are underestimated compared with the actual precipitation. In general,the quality of merged precipitation products is high,which has a good monitoring ability for heavy precipitation,the cumulative precipitation is equivalent to the actual precipitation,the correlation coefficient between 1h merged precipitation products and the actual precipitation is more than 0.924,the sunny and rainy accuracy rate is more than 94.4%,and the correlation coefficient between 10min merged precipitation products and the actual precipitation is 0.85,the TS score of both products decrease with the increase of precipitation magnitude. In contrast,the 1km products are better than 5km products,the near real-time products are better than real-time products,1h products are better than 10min products. The total 1h precipitation of merged products and 24h merged precipitation products are the same,the precipitation of 10min and 1h is not the same,but the difference between them is not big. |
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