Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China |
| |
| Authors: | REN Guoyu DING Yihui ZHAO Zongci ZHENG Jingyun WU Tongwen TANG Guoli and XU Ying |
| |
| Affiliation: | Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
| |
| Abstract: | An overview of basic research on climate change in recent
years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China, average annual
mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from
0.03o(10 yr)-1 to 0.12o (10 yr)-1. This warming is more
evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring. In
the past 50 years in China, at least 27% of the average annual warming
has been caused by urbanization. Overall, no significant trends have been
detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the
past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of
major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The
frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a
consistent pattern of change across the country, while the frequencies of
extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally
significant trends. The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased
slightly, but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly.
Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is
the highest in the past 400--500 years in China, but it may not have
exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000--1300 AD).
Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have
been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods, with the
frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely
being near the average levels of the past 2000 years. The attribution
studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the
atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming
nationwide. The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling
trend in summer over the past 50 years, which might have been caused by
increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover. However, natural climate
variability might have been a main driver for the mean and extreme
precipitation variations observed over the past century. Climate models
generally perform well in simulating the variations of annual mean SAT in
China. They have also been used to project future changes in SAT under
varied GHG emission scenarios. Large uncertainties have remained in these
model-based projections, however, especially for the projected trends of
regional precipitation and extreme climate events. |
| |
| Keywords: | overview temperature precipitation extreme climate climate change instrumental records proxy data detection attribution projection climate model China |
| 本文献已被 CNKI SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气科学进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《大气科学进展》下载全文 |
|
