| 断层地表潜在突发位移的概率评价初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 冉洪流,周本刚.断层地表潜在突发位移的概率评价初探[J].地震地质,2004,26(1):133-140. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冉洪流 周本刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 地震科学联合基金 (10 1113)，中国地震局“十五”重点科研项目“地震安全性评价研究”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前跨活动断层的线状工程的抗断设防仍采用确定性评价方法 ,考虑的是最大位错量 ,与抗御灾害的风险设计的实际要求不相符。文中将断层上最大位错点的位置分布及最大位错点两侧的位错展布 ,与可产生地表突发位移的强震复发模型联合 ,建立了评估活动断层各部位的地表潜在突发位移的概率性评价方法。最后 ,以怀涿盆地北缘正断裂中的沈庄 -长疃段为例 ,对其未来 10 0a潜在突发位移的危险性做出定量评估 ,给出了断层段上各点不同超越概率水平下的潜在位移。这一研究结果 ,可为跨断裂的线型工程进行抗御地表潜在突发位移的风险设计提供参考
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| 关 键 词： | 活动断层 地表潜在突发位移 概率性评价 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-4967(2004)01-0133-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月30 |
RESEARCH ON THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL GROUND OFFSET ALONG ACTIVE FAULT |
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| RAN Hong-liu,ZHOU Ben-gang.RESEARCH ON THE PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL GROUND OFFSET ALONG ACTIVE FAULT[J].Seismology and Geology,2004,26(1):133-140. |
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| Authors: | RAN Hong-liu ZHOU Ben-gang |
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| Abstract: | The deterministic method is currently adopted in offset-resisting design for fault-crossing linear engineering project. However, it considers merely the maximum displacement of the fault, and thus cannot meet the actual demand of anti-disaster designing. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method for evaluation of the potential abrupt displacement on various positions of the fault. This method combines the distribution of the maximum displacement positions and the distribution of displacements on both sides of the positions with the recurrence model of strong earthquake. As a case study, the risk of potential offset on the Shengzhuang-Changtuan segment of the normal fault on the northern boundary of Huailai-Zhuolu Basin in future 100yr was estimated quantitatively. This estimation provides the potential offset along the active fault under different probability levels. The result of this study may provide basic data for offset-resisting design of fault-crossing linear engineering project. |
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| Keywords: | active fault potential ground offset probabilistic assessment |
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