| 由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性 |
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| 引用本文： | 易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,王思维.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,2004,26(3):294-303. |
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| 作者姓名： | 易桂喜 闻学泽 范军 王思维 |
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| 作者单位： | 1) 中国成都 610059 成都理工大学
2) 中国成都 610041 四川省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用区域台网地震资料, 分析了川西安宁河-则木河断裂带不同段落的现今活动习性，进而鉴别潜在大地震危险的断裂段. 文中由异常低b值的分布圈绘出凹凸体，发展和应用了由多个地震活动参数值的组合判定断裂分段活动习性的方法，尝试了利用凹凸体段的震级频度关系参数估计特征地震的平均复发间隔. 结果表明，该研究断裂带存在5个不同现今活动习性的段落. 其中，安宁河断裂的冕宁-西昌段属于高应力下的闭锁段，其核心部分为一较大尺度的凹凸体；则木河断裂的西昌-普格段则表现为低应力下的微弱活动状态. 重新定位的震源深度分布，显示出上述闭锁段和微弱活动段的断层面轮廓. 冕宁-西昌段是未来大地震的潜在危险段. 该段从最晚的1952年6.7级地震起算，至未来特征地震的平均复发间隔估值为55～67年, 未来地震的震级估值为7.0～7.5. 本研究也初步表明，同-断裂段的活动习性可随时间动态演变.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震活动参数& & 断裂活动& & 习性& & 凹凸体& 潜在地震危险性& & 安宁河-则木河断裂带 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-3782(2004)03-0294-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年1月14日 |
ASSESSING CURRENT FAULTING BEHAVIORS AND SEISMIC RISK OF THE ANNINGHE-ZEMUHE FAULT ZONE FROM SEISMICITY PARAMETERS |
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| Yi Guixi, Wen Xueze Fan Jun Wang Siwei Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu ,China Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province,Chengdu ,China.ASSESSING CURRENT FAULTING BEHAVIORS AND SEISMIC RISK OF THE ANNINGHE-ZEMUHE FAULT ZONE FROM SEISMICITY PARAMETERS[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2004,26(3):294-303. |
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| Authors: | Yi Guixi Wen Xueze Fan Jun Wang Siwei Chengdu University of Technology Chengdu China Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province Chengdu China |
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| Affiliation: | Yi Guixi1,2) Wen Xueze2) Fan Jun2) Wang Siwei2)1) Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China2) Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610041,China |
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| Abstract: | Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of characteristic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low seismicity segment can be outlined on the across profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earthquake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M =6.7 earthquake, 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, the faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually. |
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| Keywords: | seismicity parameter faulting behavior asperity potential seismic risk Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone |
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