| 云南省瑞丽市新型冠状病毒肺炎暴发疫情传播力和控制效果模型分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊欢,李志波,罗红,韦焘,冉凌云,曹祖凤,刘伟.云南省瑞丽市新型冠状病毒肺炎暴发疫情传播力和控制效果模型分析[J].现代预防医学,2022,0(21):3986-3992. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊欢 李志波 罗红 韦焘 冉凌云 曹祖凤 刘伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,云南 昆明 650500; \&2.云南大学职业与继续教育学院; \&3.昆明医科大学图书馆; \&4.昆明医科大学护理学院; \&5.昆明医科大学基础医学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 针对2021年3月末瑞丽市COVID-19疫情暴发,本研究应用更新方程模拟COVID-19在瑞丽市的传播过程,快速测算其传播的流行病学参数传播序列间隔(SI)、再生数(R)及其在加强防控措施干预下的变化,为边境地区疫情防控策略提供科学依据。方法 收集官方网站公布的2021年3月30日至4月16日瑞丽市的病例信息,用Excel 2019软件进行流行病学分析,使用R 4.0.5软件建立更新方程模型,用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法(MCMC)采样计算各参数值的中位数与95%置信区间,对不同索引病例情况下疫情发展进行预测,研究疫情防控政策执行效果。结果 2021年3月30日至4月16日,瑞丽市累计报告确诊病例90例,无症状感染者43例,共133例,其中19例无症状感染者转为确诊病例,确诊病例和无症状感染者的年龄中位数分别为32、28岁。通过模型得到SI中位数约为5.00(95%CI: 4.22～7.31)天,标准差中位数约为24.67(95%CI: 12.05～27.91)天; 在疫情暴发较早阶段,再生数R约为1.42(95%CI: 1.31～1.80),加强防控措施后1周内,R下降至0.58(95%CI: 0.07～0.72),位于临界值1.0以下; 模型预测4月17日以后,每天新增感染者数量≤1例。结论 在合理推测索引病例的前提下,更新方程模型能较好地拟合疫情数据,其预测瑞丽市的疫情将在短时间内得到控制。瑞丽市的防控措施和经验可为类似边境地区的防疫工作提供有益借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 新型冠状病毒肺炎 流行病学 传播动力学模型 再生数 瑞丽市 |
Modelling analysis on transmissibility of COVID-19 epidemic and control effect in Ruili City,Yunnan Province |
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| XIONG Huan,LI Zhi-bo,LUO Hong,WEI Tao,RAN Ling-yun,CAO Zu-feng,LIU Wei.Modelling analysis on transmissibility of COVID-19 epidemic and control effect in Ruili City,Yunnan Province[J].Modern Preventive Medicine,2022,0(21):3986-3992. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Huan LI Zhi-bo LUO Hong WEI Tao RAN Ling-yun CAO Zu-feng LIU Wei |
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| Affiliation: | *School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in border areas by estimating the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the effect of the enhanced control measures implemented in Ruili city through a renewal equation model. Methods The COVID-19 epidemic data from March 30 to April 16, 2021 was collected from the official website of Ruili city. The epidemiological analysis was carried out by Excel 2019. To describe the transmission dynamics of the Ruili city COVID-19 epidemic, a renewal equation model was established using R 4.0.5 under an assumption of index cases entering Ruili city on 27 March, 2021, three days earlier before the first reported cases on 30 March, 2021. In view of the strict prevention and control measures implemented from 30 March, it was further assumed that the transmissibility of COVID-19 would reduce at some time point. Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm(MCMC)was used to calculate the medians of model parameters and their 95% confidence intervals. Results From March 30 to April 16, 2021, a total of 133 COVID-19 cases, including 90 confirmed cases and 43 asymptomatic infection cases, were reported in Ruili city. The median age of the confirmed cases was 32 years, and the median age of the asymptomatic infection cases was 28 years. Nineteen asymptomatic infection cases were further diagnosed as confirmed ones. The median of serial interval was about 5.00(95%CI: 4.22-7.31)days, and the median of its standard deviation was about 24.67(95%CI: 12.05-27.91)days. The reproduction number(R)was about 1.42(95%CI: 1.31-1.80)in the early stage of the epidemic and decreased to <1.0(about 0.58(95%CI: 0.07-0.72)within one week after the prevention and control measures were strengthened. According to the model, the daily number of new infections would decrease to less than or equal to 1 after April 17. Conclusion Under the reasonable assumptions about index cases, the renewal equation model fits the epidemic data well, which predicts that the COVID-19 epidemic in Ruili city will be under control within a short period of time. The experience in the response of COVID epidemic in Ruili city can be used as useful reference for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in border areas with similar conditions. |
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| Keywords: | COVID-19 Epidemiology Transmission dynamics model Reproduction number Ruili city |
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