| 基于GIS与PCA-Logistic的斜坡灾害易发性评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦承运,任光明,刘彬,罗菲,刘晓宇.基于GIS与PCA-Logistic的斜坡灾害易发性评价[J].西华大学学报(自然科学版),2019,38(6):100-106. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦承运 任光明 刘彬 罗菲 刘晓宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室，四川 成都 610059 |
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| 摘 要： | 地质灾害的易发性评价是早期区域灾害预警的重要基础。本文以礼州1:50 000的地质灾害调查数据为基础，分析了区域斜坡灾害的发育规律、分布特征及影响因素。文章选取区域断层、水系、地层岩性等8个因素，基于GIS平台结合逻辑回归(Logistic)和主成分分析(PCA)方法(即PCA-Logistic)对区域的斜坡灾害进行易发性评价。结果显示:断层密度和历史灾害密度是影响该区域斜坡灾害发育的主控因素，随着断层密度和灾害点密度的增加，断层距离和水系距离减小，区域斜坡灾害的分布呈现增大趋势；其中斜坡灾害高易发区主要分布于热水河两岸，中易发区主要分布在安宁河东侧，低易发区和基本安全区主要分布在安宁河河谷地势平缓区；使用AUC方法检验PCA-Logistic模型和PCA模型的评价结果，检验结果显示2种模型的评价结果都能够准确反应研究区斜坡灾害的发育情况，PCA-Logistic模型的斜坡灾害易发性评价结果要优于单一PCA模型。本研究可为地质灾害的早期预警防治工作提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 易发性评价 GIS 逻辑回归 PCA |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-12-23 |
The Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Based on GIS and PCA-Logistic |
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| QIN Chengyun,REN Guangming,LIU Bin,LUO Fei,LIU Xiaoyu.The Susceptibility Assessment of Landslides Based on GIS and PCA-Logistic[J].Journal of Xihua University:Natural Science Edition,2019,38(6):100-106. |
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| Authors: | QIN Chengyun REN Guangming LIU Bin LUO Fei LIU Xiaoyu |
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| Affiliation: | Chengdu Univercity of Technology State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu 610059 China |
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| Abstract: | Assessment of regional geological hazard susceptibility is an important basis for regional early disaster warning.This article stated in the region of the 1 : 50 000 geological disaster survey data as the foundation, analyzed the development law, distribution characteristics and influencing factors of regional slope hazards, selecting regional faults, water system and stratigraphic lithology, etc eight factors based on GIS platform and combined with Logistic regression (Logistic) and principal component analysis (PCA) method to judge the liability of regional slope geological disasters. Fault density and historical disaster density in the study area are the main controlling factors affecting the development of slope geological hazards in the region. With the increase of fault density and disaster point density, the distance between faults and water systems decreases, and the distribution of slope hazards in the region presents an increasing trend. Among them, the high vulnerable areas of slope disasters should be distributed on both sides of hot water river, the middle vulnerable areas are mainly distributed on the east side of anning river, and the low vulnerable areas and basic safety areas are mainly distributed in the flat terrain areas of anning river valley.The AUC test of the two evaluation results shows that the evaluation results of the two models can accurately reflect the development of geological hazards in the region, and the evaluation results of the vulnerability of the complex mathematical model to geological hazards are better than that of the single mathematical model. |
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