The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates |
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| Authors: | Michael Hoffmann JW Duckworth Katharine Holmes David P Mallon Ana SL Rodrigues Simon N Stuart |
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| Affiliation: | 1. IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland;2. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom;3. 6 Stratton Road, Saltford, Bristol, United Kingdom;4. 26 Oakthorn, Samson Crescent, Pretoria, South Africa;5. Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester St, Manchester, United Kingdom;6. CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul‐Valéry Montpellier – EPHE – CNRS, Montpellier, France;7. Conservation International, Arlington, VA, U.S.A.;8. Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom;9. Al Ain Zoo, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates |
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| Abstract: | Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements. |
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| Keywords: | conservation impact counterfactual scenarios extinction risk IUCN Red List escenarios contrafá ctico impacto de la conservació n Lista Roja UICN riesgo de extinció n |
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